March 3, 2008
elBARADEI AND IRAN'S NUKES....The New York Times today has a longer and slightly juicier account of last week's contentious IAEA meeting in which Mohammed elBaradei laid out new evidence that up until a few years ago Iran had been actively pursuing nuclear bomb research:
For more than two hours, representatives to the International Atomic Energy Agency were riveted by documents, sketches and even a video that appeared to have come from Iran's own military laboratories. The inspector said they showed work "not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon," according to notes taken by diplomats.
The presentation caught no one's attention more than the Iranian representatives in the room, who deny Iran is developing atomic weapons. As they whipped out cellphone cameras to photograph the screen, Iran's ambassador, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, nearly shouting, called the evidence baseless fabrications, the diplomats said, and warned that the agency was going down "a very dangerous road."
Mark Leon Goldberg, as an aside, points out that IAEA megacritics Michael Rubin and Danielle Pletka, who railed against elBaradei in the Wall Street Journal last week, have yet again demonstrated remarkably poor timing:
In fact, elBaradei disclosed damning evidence about Iran's nuclear program on the eve of an important Security Council vote on sanctions. Once again, IAEA delivers. And once again, its critics have egg on their face.
Of course, elBaradei turned out to be right about Iraq's lack of WMD. For that, he will never be forgiven.
UPDATE: Judah Grunstein writes that although last week's meeting may speak well for the IAEA, it isn't necessarily a vindication of elBaradei himself:
Last week, a well-informed source I spoke to following the delivery of the report flagged the presentation — which significantly was given by Olli Heinonen, the IAEA's head of safeguards — as evidence of the internal tension between the technical wing of the IAEA (ie. the inspectors on the ground) and the political wing (ie. ElBaradei and his circle). According to my source, Heinonen's presentation grew out of the sentiment among the inspection teams that their "work is not faithfully reflected in ElBaradei's statements." He didn't say it explicitly, but the clear implication was that the followup presentation was an attempt to end run ElBaradei, who presents the IAEA's reports to the Board of Governors, and get the incriminating evidence directly into the record.
—Kevin Drum 1:19 PM
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Would they even know or care if they had egg on their faces?
Posted by: Crissa on March 3, 2008 at 1:55 PM | PERMALINK
There's no penalty for being wrong, and there's a built-in constituency for Middle East hawks.
Also a built in patronage system. AEI, Brookings, the Hudson Institute, WINEP, etc., will be paying someone to write those articles calling for actions against Muslims/Arabs. These think tank guys will get their articles into the Washington Post, NYT, and go on NPR (National Pentagon Radio) all the time.
The Washington Post, NYT, TNR, the Weekly Standard, WSJ have to have someone fill the niche. The "leave people in other countries alone" niche in the US doesn't get filled.
Posted by: luci on March 3, 2008 at 2:32 PM | PERMALINK
It is telling that Kevin uses this news as a means of bashing his domestic political enemies, while demonstrating no concern at all about the very grave matter of Iran's nuclear intentions.
Posted by: am on March 3, 2008 at 3:09 PM | PERMALINK
It is telling that Kevin uses this news as a means of bashing his domestic political enemies, while demonstrating no concern at all about the very grave matter of Iran's nuclear intentions.
What level of concern would satisfy you? Panic?
Given that both the IAEA and the US intelligence community report that Iran is not presently working on nuclear weapons development suggests that now would be a good time to sit down at a negotiating table with them.
Posted by: JM on March 3, 2008 at 3:23 PM | PERMALINK
Note that this "new evidence" is from the same old "Laptop of Death" that the US has been shopping around for 3 year...and pretty much laughed at by everyone as an obvious plant.
Funny how according to the IAEA report itself, the US only provided the info to the IAEA a few days before the IAEA was set to release a report that essentially cleared Iran. And note that that the IAEA report refers to these as "alleged studies" and says that it has "no credible information in this regard."
Posted by: hass on March 3, 2008 at 4:31 PM | PERMALINK
So...is Iran currently working on a nuclear weapon, or on nuclear weapon related systems?
Yes or no.
Posted by: sheerahkahn on March 3, 2008 at 4:53 PM | PERMALINK
Sheerakahn - the correct fishing expedition quote is "weapons of mass destruction related program activities" -- such as, walking upright.
Posted by: anonymous on March 3, 2008 at 5:05 PM | PERMALINK
What is "funny" (but not that funny) is the selectiveness with which the Bush Administration uses or doesn't use the UN and it's various agencies. Bush sent Colin Powell before the Security Council with his cute little vials of phony anthrax, then ignored the will of the UN when they would not support his preemptive invasion of Iraq. Then, after it turned out Hans Blix was right - that Saddam didn't have WMDs after all, Bush fabricates a false narrative about Hussein kicking out the UN inspectors (which is not true), as a justification for the invasion.
Now, after it became clear that Iran was no longer pursuing a nuclear warhead, Bush and his minions make this information, which they have likely had for months, if not years, available to the IAEA. Talk about a shell game!
el-Baradei should call a press conference in a neutral country and call Bush what he is - a war criminal!
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on March 3, 2008 at 5:22 PM | PERMALINK
The syllogism goes like this:
Iranians are learning math.
Math could be used to make nukes.
Iranians are learning to make nukes.
Posted by: on March 3, 2008 at 8:05 PM | PERMALINK
What's the problem with Iran developing Nukes...?
Two of their neighbors have Nukes, why wouldn't they want them as deterrance...?
And in the end, What threat do they really pose...?
My understanding is that nuclear weapons leave a pretty unique "fingerprint".
Were one to go off in Haifa or Tel Aviv, it would be pretty clear where it came from. If it originated in Iran, Teheran and it's millions would be dead in fairly short order.
The Mullahs understand this.
It's actually unsecured Soviet-era weapons that are more problematic. Similar situation occurs, and you KNOW it was an old Soviet bomb. You can't nuke Kiev in response, can you...?
I think this nuclear-Iran fear thing is completely overblown.
Posted by: stevecogna on March 4, 2008 at 9:14 AM | PERMALINK
"Sheerakahn - the correct fishing expedition quote is "weapons of mass destruction related program activities" -- such as, walking upright."
Well, my point was, and still is, to cut through the Bush Administrations continual bullsh*t and just ask a straight up question.
In reality, the more likely answer is no, but I want a straight answer...yes...or...no.
Not, "Well, the mathematical probablities they are currently working on suggests a linkage of unique assurances that the Iranians are currently solving timing issues that will lead to big booms in our cities!" is not an answer.
It's a lot of dust thrown in my eyes to muddle my mind into thinking, "omg, mushroom clouds over American cities, attack attack attack!" and I'm not going to be fooled again.
Posted by: sheerahkahn on March 4, 2008 at 12:28 PM | PERMALINK