We have always been at war with Eastasia

This is correct. But Fallon's departure is still a major loss.

Just because the administration is committed to a policy of keeping on keeping on in Iraq, hoping for something to turn up, doesn't mean a Centcom commander able to think more strategically won't be missed.

Does the retirement of CENTCOM commander Adm. William Fallon make war with Iran more likely?

Of course it does. The difference is between having someone who has voiced his opposition to attacking Iran and having someone who has not. The answer would be no if Fallon were replaced with someone even more opposed to war with Iran. How likely is that?

Kevin,
I fail to see how anyone could conclude that any change in the current WhiteHouse's position on Iran would be changed by efforts of a "track 2 diplomacy". The latter are a bunch of unemployed scientists and retired diplomats who have no traction with either the US or Iranian governments. The IAEA has access to Natanz. Remember their latest report? Iran is not exactly enriching chocolate chip cookies.
Stop being a maroon on this.

Iran may be off the table, but it looks like some sights may be being set on Venezula. NYT story on US review of captured FARC computers for links to Chavez.

When you've got warmongers in the White House we need to look all around the world for their next target.

Why do you liberals continue to claim the NIE settles the game in your favor? It doesn't, its flaws have been thoroughly revealed - and Israel, the country most likely to drag us into a war with Iran, vehemently repudiates the NIE's findings. So how exactly is war with Iran off the table?

No, we won't "exit" the Bush/Cheney years, we'll "survive the Bush/Cheney years.

Bush and Cheney are the ones headed for the exit.

Sorry, "survive" the Bush/Cheney years.

If what you and the others say is true, great! However, if there ever were more untrustworthy people in Government, they are Bush and Cheney. I will believe war in Iran is inevitable until I see those two assholes leave the residences my tax dollars have paid for.

What's Bush got to do with it anyway? US Middle East policy is set in Tel Aviv, not Washington.

I fear you are deluding yourself, Kevin.

Short of some kind of massive provocation, we'll probably exit the Bush/Cheney years without a third war on our hands.

Cue Alfonso Bedoya.

IMPEACH GEORGE BUSH AND DICK CHENEY! Give Pelosi a call @1-202-225-0100 and DEMAND IMPEACHMENT. (10 months to go, WE ain't out of the woods yet)

Bush has to start a war with somebody in order to stay in power. He'd even go lead the charge himself, if wasn't so old and tied up being Commander-In-Chief.

"...last year's Iran NIE effectively took military action off the table."

Kevin! Haven't you learned? NOTHING is ever off Bush's table if he decides it's on. Moreover, he doesn't need a reason because God tells him so.

I'm going to hold my breath all October, November, December, and the first 20 days of January. Then he's off to Paraguay, and we'll be able to breathe again.

AJ -

Cowards don't lead charges (especially military ones).

Bush is a coward.

Ergo, he's lying again.

What's new?

Well, I've been saying this for a while.

Bush and Iran: just a way to manage the information flow. Instead of getting a grip on Iraq, everyone wonders about a new war. Nothing but misdirection.

But OTOH

Short of some kind of massive provocation, we'll probably exit the Bush/Cheney years without a third war on our hands.

Some are saying that provocation is exactly the route Cheney wants to go: Israel strikes Iran, Iran retaliates, then it's our turn.

I guess the Navy and AF don't have enough to do. Might as well break all the branches of the service.

But seriously I don't think they intend or ever intended to strike Iran beyond an air raid or two. Invasion's out of the question.

Don't be so sure, Kevin. No one can pretend to know the mind of a sociopath. If the Democrats had any sense and any balls, they would initiate impeachment proceedings right now against both Bush and Cheney and release dribble after dribble of new evidence about Bush and Cheney's wrong-doing from now through January 2009. This strategy would accomplish several things:

(1) It would further strengthen voters perception of Republicans as corrupt and tainted and possibly solidify victory for the Democrats in November.
(2) It would keep Bush and Cheney off-balance and preoccupied and unable to focus on any more war-mongering through the end of their terms.
(3) It would set the stage for legal discovery and indictments of these two criminals after they leave public office.

Iraq watch:

Even as the US slides into a recession, MR. out-of-touch McCain "rails against pork, and Dems"

McCains sez, "the senate is disconnected from the American people."

Really, whattheF*ck is a 100 year war if it's not a complete disconnect?

I'll tell you want it is.

It's the BIGGEST pork barrel giveaway EVER in history. All those unbid contracts galore. When it comes to pork, the biggest porky pig there is: John McCain, he gets the blue ribbon in pork barrel prize awards and his need for a 100 year war. Hey, can't be any more pigger than that senator.

Hey McCain, if you really want Bush to luv baby, shave your head dude. McCain hasn't got much hair anyways and word is, Bushie's got a real thing for bald men.

It's the BIGGEST pork barrel giveaway EVER in history.

Well sure.

Thing is, it's been going on ever since WWII. Iraq is just more flagrant.

A healthy prosperous society looks kind wimpy compared to an empire. Not to mention the payback going to all the wrong people.

"last year's Iran NIE effectively took military action off the table."

I sure hope this is sarcasm.

An attack is not going to happen because you don't see enough wingnuts slavering on about it all the time, which means Rush isn't talking about it and the Republicans aren't pushing it too hard.

Bush/Cheney don't need provocation or any other reason to attack Iran. They didn't have any when they invaded Iraq - how is Iran any different?

Problem with impeachment proceedings is that it would give the military genius in the White House an excellent reason to attack Iraq: to take everyone's mind off impeachment of a two-wartime president.

As to provocation: if needed, he can arrange it. Anyone with such a disregard for human life -- theirs and our soldiers' -- can simply have a missile lobbed into Iraq and claim it's Iranian.

If you want to catch a mouse, think like a cheese. If you want to figure out Bush, think like a sociopath.

Meant "Iran" in the 2nd graf, of course. Why do I keep equating them, I wonder?

My bad.

"third war?"

Try fourth. Or perhaps fifth*.

While officially not 'boots on the ground,' ancillary participation (naval and air) and support for and to Ethiopian troops as a quasi-proxy force is sufficient to qualify Somalia as Bush's third war.

*One could make a case for the Israeli/Lebanon war as being Bush's fourth war by dint of well-reported U.S. pressure to quash a cease-fire.

New rule (Bill Maher is welcome to this one):

If Bush starts a war with Iran, all Americans who voted for Bush will be automatically drafted and sent to Iran.

Arkin's piece is as weak as anything I've seen in a long time. It's like someone gave him a title and an outline and told him to muck out an argument as best he could. Few or none of his six point were convincing, and several of them were strictly "WTF"? He must have been trying to convince skimmers who'd thin "Six reasons? That's quite a few reasons."

The scumbags on the right seriously want to win the White House again. Never underestimate their political scheming.

You're awfully trusting of crazy people.

I hope you're right, Kevin. But Fallon's retirement, combined with the fact that Cheney's off to the Mideast on Sunday, and Rice and Gates are headed to Moscow on Monday, makes me awfully worried that something is brewing...

Iran asked for it, we will do it.
they should have never threatened Israel our close ally.

Iran asked for it, we will do it.
they should have never threatened Israel our close ally.

What has Iran done that the American government hasn't done or isn't currently doing? I fail to see how Iran has asked for anything, particularly war. And I would hardly call Israel an alley. If bombs were dropped anywhere, it should be on Israel. Maybe then they'll quit trying to drag the U.S. into yet another war. The U.S. government has become puppets to Israel. They bark; the U.S. jumps. They want the U.S. to attack Iran because they want even more power in the Middle East but they are too cowardly to go about it on their own. They know they can bark and the puppets in the U.S. will quickly send American men to shed their blood and die.