March 25, 2008
IRAQ UPDATE....Hot on the heels of news that the Sunni Awakening councils are running out of patience with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government, it looks like intra-Shiite tensions are coming to a boil as well:
Tensions between Iraq's major Shiite Muslim factions erupted today as Iraqi security forces launched a major crackdown against militiamen in the southern oil hub of Basra.
....Representatives of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, who has led two major uprisings against U.S.-led forces in Iraq, issued a statement threatening a "civil mutiny" if U.S. and Iraqi forces don't stop targeting his followers.
Prime Minister Nouri Maliki flew to Basra Monday to oversee the operation, which began before dawn. The clashes were concentrated in Basra's poor northern and central sections, which are under the control of Sadr's Mahdi Army militia.
Spencer Ackerman and Juan Cole have more. It's not clear if Sadr was really in control of this "mutiny" from the beginning, or if it was started by rogue elements of the Mahdi Army and then adopted later by Sadr, who can't afford to let his movement splinter too publicly. That's probably unknowable at the moment. But stay tuned.
—Kevin Drum 11:23 AM
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What I want to know is when the revelation of the secret slush fund to bribe Sadr into not killing our guys comes out. Because there's no way he was holding his militia back out of the goodness of his heart or as a political favor to a puppet government he clearly despises.
Posted by: Old Hat on March 25, 2008 at 11:26 AM | PERMALINK
If the wheels come off we'll be told that it was Iran's fault, of course.
Posted by: idlemind on March 25, 2008 at 11:28 AM | PERMALINK
And this is why the best campaign slogan should be either "Four More Years" or "So?"
Posted by: Tigershark on March 25, 2008 at 11:37 AM | PERMALINK
"We're succeeding. I don't care what anybody says. I've seen the facts on the ground," the Arizona senator insisted a day after a roadside bomb in Baghdad killed four U.S. soldiers and rockets pounded the U.S.-protected Green Zone there, and a wave of attacks left at least 61 Iraqis dead nationwide.
Posted by: AJ on March 25, 2008 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK
Sacrifice American (and Iraqi) lives to make sure that at the time Bush leaves office, Iraq war appears to be a success.
Sacrifice American (and Iraqi) lives to make sure that in November 2008, Iraq war appears to be a success so McCain looks like the savior that America yearns for.
Posted by: gregor on March 25, 2008 at 12:28 PM | PERMALINK
The central government "cracks down" on the Sadrists in Basra and it's a "mutiny" ? No. It's the largest in a series of 'government' provocations, on the heels of Cheney's visit and Petraeus' accusations of Iranian involvement in the recent Green Zone attack.
The stage is being set for something.
Posted by: G Hazeltine on March 25, 2008 at 12:37 PM | PERMALINK
Hey Old Hat, if there is a secret slush fund, it's probably the best spent money we've sent to Iraq. It's a lot cheaper to pay them off than hunt them down. For the cost of this war, we could have sent every militant in Iraq to the Moon. We could have turned every gas station in the U.S. into a hydrogen facility for half as much.
Posted by: rpooh52 on March 25, 2008 at 12:39 PM | PERMALINK
BTW, Charlotte and NYC will fall too. They're actually at the epicenter of this credit bubble implosion.
Posted by: anon on March 25, 2008 at 12:53 PM | PERMALINK
Smart move anon, commenting on the wrong thread is pretty weak. Best to be anonymous so your unsubstantiated opinion can't be attributed.
It seems more likely that al Maliki is paying Sadr from the oil revenues. You'll notice that in the administration's claim that the oil revenues are being distributed, they don't mention to whom. I suspect the US has no idea where it goes.
For the ISF to go to Basra could mean there's a dispute between Badr and Sadr over the oil smuggling/black market in and around Basra. Boys will be boys.
Posted by: TJM on March 25, 2008 at 1:06 PM | PERMALINK
Now we read that Sadr is fighting again and the Surge has got us nowhere.
Iraq is hell and the surge is one of the seasons of hell– a slight change of scenery, a costume change between acts. The Surge is part of the selling campaign, it’s the 2007-8 model of the long stay in Iraq.
And we stay and stay. Why? The place would revert to chaos of we were to leave. Revert? Chaos is US. We stay because we broke the pottery and now we need to fix it. Fix it? Not in a million years. Asking the US to fix Iraq is like asking Michael Jackson to babysit your children. So we stay, for what? What does the place have of value? Oil. That’s why we stay. Simple question: why don’t we go to Darfur? Simple answer, No oil.
The surge will come and go. Next season there will be a new hope: perhaps Chalabi will return and bring peace. And then the denouement-Chabali summarily killed and revealed as a fraud and on and on, more plots, sub-plots and pipedreams which will last 50 more years when the oil will run out.
The British took over Iraq after the Ottomans were defeated in WWI. They needed oil for their fleet which was then switching over to coal. British Pro-Council Gertrude Bell thought the Shias were not to be trusted so she went with the Sunnis. Churchill’s RAF gassed the Kurds and after that everyone kept pretty much in line.
The country was turned over to CIA station chief Kermit Roosevelt (Teddy’s grandson) in the 50’s and the oil became US corporate property. Saddam nationalized the oil and tossed out the Enrons of the time. Bush tossed out Saddam and now we have chaos.
And now Sadr is rising..
A ghastly tale, I’m sure you’ll agree.
Posted by: Dr Wu, the last of the big-time thinkers on March 25, 2008 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK
From the Sunday Mirror (UK)
YANKS PUSH BRITS FOR BASRA SURGE
EXCLUSIVE Troops to quell unrest
By Rupert Hamer Defence Correspondent Rupert.Hamer@Sundaymirror.Co.Uk 23/03/2008
American military chiefs are to urge Britain to carry out a US-style "surge" in Iraq to stop spiralling levels of violence and killings in Basra.
Commanders are growing increasingly "uneasy" that Iraq's second city is descending into anarchy after British forces pulled out.
The US is even considering offering our troops thousands of US Marines to assist them in what could be a gruelling six-month operation.
==============
Ready for some more blood? Think the surge has worked? Or was it just the millions and millions in bribes--err, wages--paid to maintain the militias in inaction. The militias are going "on-strike" due to protest the sticky fingers at the top who have kept too much money to pay the actual militia members. The bribery worked for a while, until the greed got too much.
Ideology is returning now that the money has run it's course.
Posted by: on March 25, 2008 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK
From the Sunday Mirror (UK)
YANKS PUSH BRITS FOR BASRA SURGE
EXCLUSIVE Troops to quell unrest
By Rupert Hamer Defence Correspondent Rupert.Hamer@Sundaymirror.Co.Uk 23/03/2008
American military chiefs are to urge Britain to carry out a US-style "surge" in Iraq to stop spiralling levels of violence and killings in Basra.
Commanders are growing increasingly "uneasy" that Iraq's second city is descending into anarchy after British forces pulled out.
The US is even considering offering our troops thousands of US Marines to assist them in what could be a gruelling six-month operation.
==============
Ready for some more blood? Think the surge has worked? Or was it just the millions and millions in bribes--err, wages--paid to maintain the militias in inaction. The militias are going "on-strike" due to protest the sticky fingers at the top who have kept too much money to pay the actual militia members. The bribery worked for a while, until the greed got too much.
Ideology is returning now that the money has run it's course.
Posted by: Nea on March 25, 2008 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK
The British occupied Mesopotamia for several years after WWI, until the guerilla warfare became too much and their losses too steep to sustain. The great diplomat, Winston Churchill, advocated the use of poison gas against Iraqi civilans. The British used it. Barbarism becomes more common as the occupying power becomes more frustrated. The British finally saw no point in continuing the occupation and withdrew completely.
History is in the process of repeating itself...
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on March 25, 2008 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK
I have a blog posting on the Unraveling of the Surge on my blog http://swimmingfreestyle.typepad.net
Excerpt:
Never having had a comprehensive, result based strategy for Iraq makes "victory" impossible to define, but these developments certainly illustrate what defeat looks like. The real tragedy is the same group who masterminded this fiasco will now scurry around to latch onto some other strategy that lacks a focus and goal and work like hell to sell it to the American people.
Posted by: Jay McDonough on March 25, 2008 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK
I entered my blog address incorrectly. It is:
http://swimmingfreestyle.typepad.com
Posted by: Jay McDponough on March 25, 2008 at 2:48 PM | PERMALINK
Lots & lots of "welfare" for the arms merchants tho...
"...the West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion...but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact, non-Westerners never do." - Samuel P. Huntington
Posted by: daCascadian on March 25, 2008 at 3:33 PM | PERMALINK
The arms merchants shouldn't worry too much if we get ran out of there this year or next. There will be *plenty* of stuff that needs to be replaced and fixed that we've worn out. No "peace dividend" for two-three years at least.
Posted by: Doc at the Radar Station on March 25, 2008 at 5:41 PM | PERMALINK
Posted by: gregor on March 25, 2008 at 12:28 PM
Sacrifice American (and Iraqi) lives to make sure that at the time Bush leaves office, Iraq war appears to be a success.
"President Bush conferred yesterday with top U.S. officials in Washington and in Baghdad and vowed in a public statement that the outcome of the war "will merit the sacrifice."
"Bush...spoke of the U.S. civilians who have died in Iraq and said: "I will vow so long as I am president to make sure that those lives were not lost in vain." Washington Post March 25, 2008
The outcome of the war is...?
lives not lost in vain for...?
Posted by: Zit on March 25, 2008 at 6:14 PM | PERMALINK