Theory # 2.

If you want to know what's going on in Iraq right now, President Bush will clarify it for you:

"My first reaction to watching the Iraqi government respond forcefully and to make it abundantly clear that -- I think the exact -- I can't remember the exact words of the Prime Minister, but "criminal elements" I know were a part of his declaration -- would be dealt with. I thought that was a very positive moment in the development of a sovereign nation, that is willing to take on elements that are -- you know, that believe they're beyond the law.

When have Americans ever been fooled by what's going on in the Middle East?

Sounds like civil war.

Note that none of this has squat to do with freedom.

I don't think Sadr was ever a favorite of Iran. I suspect Iran at various times has given support to all the Shiite factions, but SCIRI and Maliki's party (Daw'aa?) were always preferred to the more nationalistic Sadr.

In another unfortunate case of premature Iraq elation, the Wall Street Journal last week celebrated the decline and fall of Iraqi Shiite leader Moqtada Al-Sadr. Echoing the "bring 'em on" taunt of their former boss, ex-Bush advisers Dan Senor and Roman Martinez triumphantly asked "Whatever Happened to Moqtada?" But as the renewed turmoil in Baghdad and violent chaos in Basra suggest, the answer may be, "he's back."

For the details, see:
"Moqtada Al-Sadr Answers the Wall Street Journal."

Ben made the point for me. Basically, Iran was following the "buy off everyone you can" strategy. But it didn't work with Sadr, so they're moving on to the "kill off the people you can't buy" strategy.

"Elements that . . . believe they're beyond the law"? Wow, who do these militas think they are? It isn't as if they are the President of the US, who, rather sadly, apparently is indeed "beyond the law."

I can't find an "email Kevin" link anywhere...can someone explain why the status bar for the washingtonmonthly.com page reads "read www.johnmccain.com"???

Whatever the strategy, al-Maliki seems to be wagering all on one throw.

Tom Joad,

Are you talking about the ad at the top of the page?
I can't see "read www.johnmccain.com" anywhere on my screen.

If you mean the ad at the top my guess is that Washington Monthly has sold ad space on this blog and doesn't screen the ads.

Patrick Cockburn of the Independent is one of the few journalists who got a clue as to what's going on now in Iraq.

see video today at:

http://www.democracynow.org/

Sadr didn't take refuge in Iran during the Saddam years like most of the Shiite leaders did, so why should he have been a favorite of Tehran's? He has always been the most nationalistic Iraqi Shiite leader. I just don't get why this is so hard for some people to understand.

[6.] If the US can turn Iraq into a clusterfuck, why can't Iran? After all, fair is fair.

can someone explain why the status bar for the washingtonmonthly.com page reads "read www.johnmccain.com"???

Because Google Ads don't check what you are saying about a topic, just that you are talking about it, and McCain bought advertising from them.

premature Iraq elation

This has been a problem for Bush since he gave up drinking.

What's going on in Iraq...all sides are flush with cash, guns, rockets, RPGs, c4 for all the bombs needed to destroy the oil pipeline and anything that moves on 4 wheels....and lets not forget all have recieved the best training in the world...per george bush. Think this situation is best discribed as Afganistan vs Russia on meth.

Wouldn't Maliki be doing better if he had Sunni support for this? More militia, more votes, etc?

Or is it that he doesn't want the Sunni? Or doesn't think his allies will accept Sunni support until they're backed into a corner? If it was the latter, I doubt they'd have stopped paying off the Sunni militias...

I'm guessing ALL OF THEM.

Ironically, it might have been best from a pure stability standpoint to side with Sadr. He was always the most independent of Iraqis who had ties to the Iranians.

Protecting US military lines of communication into Iraq after the sneak attack on Iran theory needs to be added to the list.

I think the dissatisfaction of the Sunni Awakening groups might have played a role in Sadr's own Awakening. Sadr differs from Badr in that he's a bit more of an Iraqi Nationalist, and as such, he sometimes reaches across the sectarian divide to make gestures of solidarity with his fellow-Iraqi, fellow-Muslim Sunnis. He may think that this is the moment to demonstrate his capacity as a potential ally with Sunnis, against ISCI and Dawa.

If it is just a demonstration, compromise will follow, and all will calm down within a few days. Then, Sadr will look for the dissatisfied Sunnis to signal their position and readiness to cooperate against Maliki.

Perhaps Bush pressured Maliki into acting now. Either way, I don't think Maliki would have moved without US backing. Maybe Maliki has wanted to remove Sadr for some time but we have told him to hold off. Now, with 9 months left in Bush Admin, they feel the time is now.

Maybe because the coming Dem prez might not support an attack on Sadr, or maybe Bush feels increased conflict is better for Republican electoral success.

Protecting strategic lines of communication into Iraq is a prelude to attacking Iran.

Basra and Southern Iraq is populated by Shiites sympathetic to Iran. Malachi is following orders and attacking nationalist Sadrists in Basra with US aerial support to secure the region. The Southern Shiites might cut off supply lines to the troops in the North after W. Bush orders an American Pearl Harbor-like sneak attack on Iran.

It's those pesky ex-Ba'athists and dead enders back for a rematch!
This is not an insurgency! It's just criminals! Outlaws, even. . .

Oh, never mind. . .

It's those pesky ex-Ba'athists and dead enders back for a rematch!
This is not an insurgency! It's just criminals! Outlaws, even. . .

Oh, never mind. . .

So now all arguments will proceed using their Drum code for convenience and ease of collation. Witness:

"Drum 5! Drum 5!"

"Drum 5? Ah, hell no! Drum 3!"

"Yer both all wet. It's clearly Drum 8 = Drum 3 + Drum 5."

Because everybody knows Drums are distributive.

One question though. If you added the latest theory at position 1, aren't you in a bit of trouble when the next new theory rolls around?

Door #2 Monty!

Mix equal measures of #3 and #4.
Add oil as needed to ensure a good mix.
Cover and let stand until an unsightly crust forms.
Punch down and roll flat on a desolate landscape
Knead in a a generous scoop of #2.
Form into an obscene shape.
Dust with a pinch of #1 and #5.
Let fester until ready to serve.

Prep time: 2-5 years.

Diversity.

Going back to Phil Agee's book on the CIA, and people with more knowledge of current strategies can confirm this or not, U.S. intelligence used to/still does invest a lot of time and resources in cultivating agents in high levels in client states, particularly in the militaries. Maliki's assault on Mahdi can be seen as a proxy decision by the U.S. occupation, who still are smarting over the standdown in Najaf in 2004. They say they're after rogue militia who've spun off from Mahdi army, but apparently the assault actually reaches much further into Moqtada's base. Since then, it was just a question of when that would happen. And it looks like just as much a miscalculation as before. The best evidence of this would be activities of U.S. special forces, under cover of the current confusion. Total speculation on my part, of course, but eyes open.

I don't have anything substantive to add to the speculations, but would like to point out that the fact that we don't have the foggiest notion exactly what's going on, how popular Sadr is, or much idea of the motivations of the major players there is an incredibly damning indictment of our occupation. How the heck can you run an occupation and counterinsurgency when you don't even have the foggiest notion what the elites you're dealing with are thinking, much less the broader population?

The clever use of theories by some here ("roll out flat on a desolate landscape" almost had me on the floor!! Good one!!) illustrates how irrelevant philosophizing is in the face of chaos.

Still...we are pattern-seeking animals it seems. If the Sunni-Awakening constituency actually cast ballots in the next elections their 'Members of Parliament' will no longer be the Da-Wa party of Mr Maliki. Muqtada has at least a large part of the Shia. Therefore, crush Muqtada. Pretty simple electoral thinking.

I bet KarlRove was the real visitor last week; he was wearing a DickCheney disquise.