Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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April 22, 2008
By: Kevin Drum

HILLARY WINS....So I guess Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary. What's more, she seems to have won by roughly the same margin she would have won by even if she and Barack Obama hadn't just spent $40 million there.

In other words, the campaign was not only pointless, but pointless and wildly expensive. On to North Carolina!

POSTSCRIPT: And what does it all mean? Beats me. All the stuff that everyone's been talking about for the past six weeks, I guess.

Kevin Drum 9:41 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (115)

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Comments

but she did manage to push her negatives into W range.

so, that's good.

Posted by: cleek on April 22, 2008 at 9:42 PM | PERMALINK

She is like the crazy ex-girlfiend that crashes her x-boyfriend’s wedding…

The wedding goes on, but she looks pathetic and a spoiler, and makes everyone cringe and pity her.

She is selfish, grubby and thuggish and is now solely relying on McCarthyism and the counter punches from RNC and McCain to destroy Obama.

She is succeeding in hurting Obama, but as another horrible consequence, she is also harming the rest of the Dem candidates this November.

If she continues the Dem will have less than half of the money compared to what it will be if she withdraws now and Obama can go on the offensive against McCain and the Republicans. WISE UP DEMOCRATS. STOP THE SELF DESTRUCTION.

Bill’s reputation, for it was worth, is now that of a racist Joe McCarthy.

Heck of a Job Clintons.

Posted by: Bennie on April 22, 2008 at 9:44 PM | PERMALINK

Suddenly she becomes slightly more legitimate....too bad she still can't inspire and sway folks like Obama can.

Posted by: humanfaculties on April 22, 2008 at 9:48 PM | PERMALINK

It ain't over till the fat lady sings, and we see the final results.

Posted by: pol on April 22, 2008 at 9:49 PM | PERMALINK

I'll say. This is getting ridiculous. She'll just keep bleeding Obama while McCain's unseen insanity continues...

Posted by: ruck on April 22, 2008 at 9:51 PM | PERMALINK

It means that the only thing that is certain is that Hillary has no shame. She will not throw in the towel and no one will ever convince her it's time to quit. So, wake me up after the convention is over. In the meantime, the right will have a field day saving cash and letting her do her best to destroy any chance of winning for Obama.

Posted by: Paul on April 22, 2008 at 9:53 PM | PERMALINK

"What's more, she seems to have won by roughly the same margin she would have won by even if she and Barack Obama hadn't just spent $40 million there."

So she won tonight in the 20-25 point margin that she was polling at back at the end of February? Get real.

Posted by: Tom on April 22, 2008 at 9:53 PM | PERMALINK

"she seems to have won by roughly the same margin she would have won by even if she and Barack Obama hadn't just spent $40 million there"

Wasn't she ahead >25 points a few weeks ago?

Posted by: chao lam on April 22, 2008 at 9:55 PM | PERMALINK

I gotta idea, let's all be misogynistic! The audacity of hope and the agent of change FTW!

Posted by: jerry on April 22, 2008 at 9:56 PM | PERMALINK

Eh.. whatever

Obama will be the nominee. Democrats will unite behind him. He will win in November.

On the other hand:
When will an exit poll show a breakout support by age and gender for white voters?

If HC wins women 57/43 and people over 65/37 then what does she win women over 65 by?

Posted by: Adam on April 22, 2008 at 9:57 PM | PERMALINK

My question: why do Obama and Edwards web supporters even identify with the Democrats? Democrats have always been of two minds: McGovern and Zell Miller; FDR and Strom Thurmond. What makes you think they are going to change now and rally around Obama?

I may think Obama is the best candidate -- you may think that -- but Democrats would rather vote for Reagan than Mondale.. That is what it means to be a Democrat.

In the fall, if Obama is the nominee I fully expect to see a large segment of Clinton supporters sitting out the election or voting for McCain -- they did in 1980 and 1984, they did again in 2000 and 2004, why not in 2008?

Posted by: Dicksknee on April 22, 2008 at 9:57 PM | PERMALINK

If we don't stop this erection, it will cause irreparable harm to Barack Obama by casting a cloud on his legitimacy.

Posted by: Antonin Scalia on April 22, 2008 at 10:00 PM | PERMALINK

...but pointless and wildly expensive.

Ouch, sigh. Poor, poor player haters. You cant win spending more money. You can't win 2025 by sheer math. So you still have to fight(which you loath). Pretty much...life sucks, I hear ya.

Must be a shame not having enough experience to realize you have to play the game you hate sometimes. Must suck...

Posted by: elmo on April 22, 2008 at 10:03 PM | PERMALINK

I don't think all those newly registered Democrats are pointless....

Posted by: Barbara on April 22, 2008 at 10:06 PM | PERMALINK

I almost wish the superdelegates would throw aside Obama's inevitable victory and vote for Clinton. That would give me a legitimate excuse to sit out in November and re-register as an Independent. I'm so disgusted by the entire process and the Democratic party in particular.

Posted by: Obama or Bust on April 22, 2008 at 10:09 PM | PERMALINK

Now that we have the Pennsylvania results in, we can conclude that the race is still over.

Posted by: reino on April 22, 2008 at 10:10 PM | PERMALINK

You can't really believe that if one candidate campaigned, and the other didn't, everything would turn out this same with the primary results...

check out my new diaries

Posted by: Swan on April 22, 2008 at 10:11 PM | PERMALINK

You can't really believe that if one candidate campaigned, and the other didn't, everything would turn out this same with the primary results...

But that's exactly what happened in Michigan!

Posted by: Mark Penn on April 22, 2008 at 10:15 PM | PERMALINK

The lesson to take away from tonights results is that your candidate is unelectable.

Posted by: Memekiller on April 22, 2008 at 10:16 PM | PERMALINK

Not so fast, Kevin. As I am looking at the data, it looks like she may win be easy double digits, and may be able to make a realistic argument about leading, or being very near even, in the overall popular vote. Wonder how old Howard Dean feels about things now?

Posted by: BillyBobSchranzburg on April 22, 2008 at 10:17 PM | PERMALINK

I gotta idea, let's all be misogynistic!

Jerry, granted that I am not as sharp as I used to be, what the hell are you babbling about?

I missed seeing any misogynistic content prior to your post.

Posted by: Keith G. on April 22, 2008 at 10:18 PM | PERMALINK

Not so fast, Kevin. As I am looking at the data, it appears she may win by significant double digits, and may be able to lay claim to the overall lead in the popular vote. I wonder how old Howard Dean feels about things now?

Posted by: BillyBobSchranzburg on April 22, 2008 at 10:19 PM | PERMALINK

Pointless?

My god, what a bizarre point of view.

I guess what you're saying is that it's a shame Hillary still has a statistical possibility and it's such a drag that the rest of the states that haven't exercised their right to elect a nominee have to inconvience you and the entire nation with their futile pathetic exercise in democracy.

WTF?

Posted by: jpmist on April 22, 2008 at 10:19 PM | PERMALINK

She cannot realistically win pledged delegates or popular vote (unknowable anyway, given the caucus states). She can realistically obliterate any hope that we can save the country from further Republican ruin. Obama did erase about 16-points of his machine politics deficit there. The party seems unable and unwilling to stop the train wreck. Just like the Iraq war, Bush, or anything else meaningful. The country is torn between idiots and the indolent. I hate seeing it come to this. Hillary really is that vengeful. When she loses every other state but possibly Indiana, will she just leave? I am sending more money to Obama--I am sure most democrats would just as soon not waste any more money until the fall. But there you are. Really it Obama versus the right wing media narrative at this stage. It sucks, big time. And again, this primary was "closed" only in the sense that the Republican nomination was sealed so long ago that many cross-over to the weaker candidates have voted again for Hillary. Unfreaking believable.


Posted by: Sparko on April 22, 2008 at 10:30 PM | PERMALINK


Barack Obama remains the strongest candidate to face John McCain. Here’s a good summary of some reasons to consider supporting Obama: http://acropolisreview.com/2008/04/top-reasons-to-give-barack-obama-your.html

Share the summary with undecided friends in North Carolina and Indiana.

Posted by: Tina on April 22, 2008 at 10:33 PM | PERMALINK

Obama supporters have no grace

Posted by: on April 22, 2008 at 10:36 PM | PERMALINK

Anonymous, no handled GOP trolls have no balls.

Posted by: Sparko on April 22, 2008 at 10:38 PM | PERMALINK

Sparcomatic...I just read the first sentence of your post, and got the idea that you are predicting Armageddon. "Hillary!" "Don't look back to the election!" "You'll turn all of us to dust!!!"

Posted by: on April 22, 2008 at 10:39 PM | PERMALINK

One reason Obama may not have been able to win is because this was a closed primary, and so many of his supporters are registered independents. He definitely pulls in more people from beyond the Democratic base than Clinton. . .especially more educated voters.

Posted by: on April 22, 2008 at 10:40 PM | PERMALINK

That's me above...

Posted by: elmo on April 22, 2008 at 10:41 PM | PERMALINK

Yeah, Hillary!!

Posted by: emmarose on April 22, 2008 at 10:46 PM | PERMALINK

If Obama's new super delegates are tallied, he will possibly come out ahead tonight. Right now, projections are for a maybe a net loss of six for Obama in PA, but if he has more Super delegates commit, it is over tonight. I just want the media to finally acknowledge it. And honestly, most of these purported Hillary supporters, without handles, are GOP asshats. Hillary is a GOP operative at this stage. If you are not for progressives, you are against us.

Posted by: Sparko on April 22, 2008 at 10:46 PM | PERMALINK

And Elmo=GOP troll.

Posted by: Sparko on April 22, 2008 at 10:48 PM | PERMALINK

What this primary result means is I can say-- Hey Kos, Hey Olbermann, Hey main stream media--- Go fuck yourselves.

Posted by: Mutanan on April 22, 2008 at 10:49 PM | PERMALINK

Remember the Dean scream? That's all it took to knock Dean out of contention and it all boiled down to the media simply tiring of him.

I'm guessing Obama supporters are simply anxious to get it over with so they don't have to worry about Obama having a "Dean" moment.

"Why can't I just eat my waffle?"

Posted by: jpmist on April 22, 2008 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK

And Elmo=GOP troll.

Not even close, Sparcozooid. I'm a Retardican slayer...

Posted by: elmo on April 22, 2008 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK

"Obama did erase about 16-points of his machine politics deficit there"

Obama outspends her by 3-1, has Dean, Pilosi, Teddy et al in his corner, is upported by 90% of the mainstream media and 100% of the "liberal" blogasphere, and you're bargging because he "only" got beat by 8%.

"Unfreaking believable" is right.

Posted by: bILL b on April 22, 2008 at 10:55 PM | PERMALINK

When Obama correctly observed rural America's attraction to guns and God, he forgot to add in the Confederate flag. Racism runs deep among the Democratic party's blue collar voters.

Posted by: on April 22, 2008 at 10:59 PM | PERMALINK

bILL b,

Now (with 82% of the vote counted), it's up to 10%.

Posted by: Lee on April 22, 2008 at 10:59 PM | PERMALINK

Racism runs deep among the Democratic party's blue collar voters.

No it doesn't, Retardican lurker. But keep trying to compare Retardicans to Liberals. I dare you, weak ass mother fucker...

Posted by: elmo on April 22, 2008 at 11:05 PM | PERMALINK

Obama has an insurmountable lead. He has an insurmountable lead in resources and donors. He connects with real Democratic voters and has already won the primary. And yet, the GOP still props the formerly admirable Hillary up to weaken their adversaries. I can't take the elmos or billbs seriously--they are sock-puppets for GOP douche-baggery. Machiavelli was right about the divide and conquer strategy. Hillary just doesn't seem to mind being ill-used. Lieberman II. How to win without being popular. Rove strikes again.

Posted by: Sparko on April 22, 2008 at 11:06 PM | PERMALINK

You fools. Why don't you realize the value of of democratic system? Whay don't you realize that having the democratic process live on and thrive is valuable. Be glad that you do not live in Tibet or China where the Communist China controls what can be said and there is no such thing as free elections.

Posted by: democracy on April 22, 2008 at 11:09 PM | PERMALINK

So she won tonight in the 20-25 point margin that she was polling at back at the end of February? Get real.

Thank you. Kevin thinks we're stupid.

Posted by: Horatio Parker on April 22, 2008 at 11:13 PM | PERMALINK

LOL, Sparka-dud, please. You can't "take" me because you're weak. Pure and simple. You couldn't divide and conquer a whore on dollar night...

Posted by: elmo on April 22, 2008 at 11:13 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary came up short from what she needed to do. Delegate-wise, she barely dented Obama's lead. Popular vote-wise, she's still down around 400,000 And now the state that she had the best chance to make up ground with is off the table.

Of course she'll continue on, but her already desperately slim chances have just become slimmer.

Posted by: Joe on April 22, 2008 at 11:18 PM | PERMALINK

I'll leave knowledge of whores to you Hillary supporters then Elmo. Her campaign website does forward automatically to the "donations" page. Leave your money on the dresser red puppet.

Posted by: Sparko on April 22, 2008 at 11:18 PM | PERMALINK

Let's see. Hillary has now won major states like California, New York, Texas, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, yet Sparkoless, and others like him, just want her to go away. Wait until the overall popular vote goes in Hillary's direction. I can't wait to hear the braying then.

Posted by: BillyBobSchranzburg on April 22, 2008 at 11:18 PM | PERMALINK

Shranzzwischenzug: Those races were relevant; Texas went Obama's way in delegates and non-republicans for example. They all helped him build what is now an insurmountable lead. A lead that is decisive everywhere but the media. All in good time there. The New York Times has called it as of tonight.

Posted by: Sparko on April 22, 2008 at 11:23 PM | PERMALINK

Leave your money on the dresser red puppet.

I'll do that as soon as you perform a task worthy of profit. You've not even tickled my ass yet...

Posted by: elmo on April 22, 2008 at 11:24 PM | PERMALINK

Operation Chaos is operating now at full speed.

"Daisy, Daisy, give me your answer do. I'm half crazy all for the love of you. It won't be a stylish marriage, I can't afford a carriage. But you'll look sweet upon the seat of a bicycle built for two."

Posted by: Operation Chaos on April 22, 2008 at 11:24 PM | PERMALINK

Rebooting core program.

Pod bay doors open. Obama freed from Hallery.

Posted by: Sparko on April 22, 2008 at 11:31 PM | PERMALINK

LOL! Operation Chaosyrup? That shit only lives in your short, weak, imagination. Pussy boy.

Posted by: elmo on April 22, 2008 at 11:33 PM | PERMALINK

From BillyBob: Wait until the overall popular vote goes in Hillary's direction.

You really think she has any chance of making up 400,000 votes? Obama will probably add another 200,000-300,000 to his lead after North Carolina....so that's at least 600,000 Hillary will have to make up....with what? Kentucky and West Virginia?

It's over. She needed to win Pennsylvania by 15 to 20 to even make a case for staying in the race.

Posted by: Joe on April 22, 2008 at 11:35 PM | PERMALINK

Sparkz-out-the-ass, please, let the professionals take over...

Posted by: elmo on April 22, 2008 at 11:36 PM | PERMALINK

ZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

Wha, Huh ?

Oh that. None of the Above.

zzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

"The first lesson of democracy is not to hold the public in contempt." - Ronnie Earle

Posted by: daCascadian on April 22, 2008 at 11:41 PM | PERMALINK

""The first lesson of democracy is not to hold the public in contempt." - Ronnie Earle""

He's right. One must toss it aside with contempt.

Posted by: Archie on April 22, 2008 at 11:56 PM | PERMALINK

What a delicious win for Clinton tonight. Love to see all the Obamooids licking their wounds.

Obama has to seriously reevaluate after this debacle. All that money, all that swooning press coverage, and the guy still loses in the double digits.

Obama has not won a large state yet, at least one that didn't have a caucus system. He's a nothing, a demagogue with a spritely party machine behind him.

For the good of the party, Obama Mama, drop out. Please.

Posted by: mackin' it on April 22, 2008 at 11:58 PM | PERMALINK

It's really unbelievable that 25% of Clinton supporters in PA would apparently vote for McCain over Obama in November. I wonder who would be hurt more by a McCain Presidency. . .Clinton's blue collar supporters or Obama's elite, educated liberals? If Obama loses in November because poor, less educated Democrats should to shoot themselves in the foot rather than vote for a black man, they're the only ones who will be suffering over the next four years. Obama's upper middle class, white backers will be just fine.

Posted by: Obama or Bust on April 23, 2008 at 12:01 AM | PERMALINK

Obama has gotten swiftboated whether you know it or not. It would not have gained nearly as much steam coming from Limbaugh as from Hillary.

If McCain's elected, that's checkmate.

McCain was a pilot, like in the movie.

I'm better at chess than you. All of you.

Posted by: Operation Chaos on April 23, 2008 at 12:07 AM | PERMALINK

macktin' it? What? With your right hand? Yet another wanna-be with too much mountain due.

Come on, Rush. I know it's you. Man up and stop being such a pansy. Everybody knows you snoop here. Why not prove your manliness by kicking elmo's(my) ass?

I know why, you are scared...

Posted by: elmo on April 23, 2008 at 12:10 AM | PERMALINK

I think we have all agreed on one thing, as we always have:

This is Excellent News for HILLARY!111!1!!!1

(wher's mah lolcat photo?1! :(

Posted by: absent observer on April 23, 2008 at 12:11 AM | PERMALINK
What a delicious win for Clinton tonight. Love to see all the Obamooids licking their wounds. Obama has to seriously reevaluate after this debacle. All that money, all that swooning press coverage, and the guy still loses in the double digits.

Was this sarcastic??

What we have here is the equivalent of a football game where team Obama is up 42-28 with less than a minute to go. And team Hillary just scored a field goal to make it 42-31 with 30 seconds remaining. Yeah, we're really licking our wounds now....

I usually associate this amount of delusion with Bush supporters. I thought Dems were supposed to be the reality-based party....

Posted by: Joe on April 23, 2008 at 12:33 AM | PERMALINK

Hillary hit a three-pointer tonight...but she needed to be fouled on the play as well, and it didn't happen. She's down 10 with a minute to go, and unless Obama's "free throw" shooting is as bad as his bowling, he'll be on top at the final buzzer.

Posted by: Vincent on April 23, 2008 at 12:35 AM | PERMALINK

I want to emphasize that I wrote my basketball analogy before seeing Joe's football analogy...

Posted by: Vincent on April 23, 2008 at 12:37 AM | PERMALINK

I like my sports analogy better ;)

Posted by: Joe on April 23, 2008 at 12:37 AM | PERMALINK

Since both men and women play basketball (and I'm a University of Maryland graduate, where its basketball teams in both genders have won NCAA titles), I figured it was a better sport to use for an analogy than football.

Posted by: Vincent on April 23, 2008 at 12:43 AM | PERMALINK

Jerry, I'll see your misogyny and raise you one racism.

Posted by: jon on April 23, 2008 at 12:58 AM | PERMALINK

Obama supporters need to get over themselves and understand that Obama has not won anything yet. Obama outspent Hillary in Pennsylvania and Hillary still won by "double digits." Further, Hillary's win continues the argument that Obama will not do well in a general election against McCain.

The more we know about Obama the worse he gets and this will continue in NC and in IN. By the way, why is Obama now afraid to debate???? And why is he shunning the press?

Posted by: Noel on April 23, 2008 at 1:17 AM | PERMALINK

After watching the clips on how O'bama's precher spoke, I wish I could take back the vote I had previously casted for him. I find it disheartening to see the percentages of black voters in the democratic party that believe it has no bearing on the race. If Obama is the canadate im voting McCain, as much as it pains me.

Posted by: Jeff on April 23, 2008 at 1:25 AM | PERMALINK

Sparko says:

If you are not for progressives, you are against us.

Progressive? This is the primary for the Democratic Party, not the Progressive Party. Geez, you Obama fanboys are so annoying..

Posted by: Andy on April 23, 2008 at 3:10 AM | PERMALINK

Jeff,
Judging by your illiterate, grammatically incoherent post, you really should go to the republican camp - there, it seems, is where you belong. Now kindly piss off

Posted by: tight before teatime on April 23, 2008 at 3:10 AM | PERMALINK

Probably done more for the party than you every could tight before teatime. Your opinion of me really is not what I base my self worth on. As much as it might "piss" you off...my vote will count in November.

Posted by: Jeff on April 23, 2008 at 3:22 AM | PERMALINK

There are only 3 reasons Clinton stays in this race:
(1) She wants this thing to stay undecided all the way to the convention, so that in the negotiating process for delegates, Obama is forced to select her as V.P. candidate.
(2) She really wants to win the nomination in 2008 by having superdelegates overturn the candidate who won more delegates, more states, more popular vote, raised more money, and brought new people into the party... if this is the case, African-Americans will abandon the party, as well as progressives, the young, and all those new voters. There is no way African-Americans are going to take a candidate who won the pledged delegates to be overturned...
(3)She wants to destroy Obama in 2008 so that McCain wins, so she can challenge him in 2012 with Obama out of the way.

Where am I wrong????

Posted by: jab on April 23, 2008 at 4:55 AM | PERMALINK

Clinton had grandparents in Pennsylvania.

She more or less grew up there.

Pennsylvania shares a very long border with New York.

Clinton should have had a blowout there.

This was not a blowout!

Posted by: ami in deutschland on April 23, 2008 at 5:25 AM | PERMALINK

So Obama won a bunch of red states that will bury him in November, and his supporters are still glassy-eyed and following him as he takes the Democratic party to Guyana. He's a phony.

Posted by: Folderol on April 23, 2008 at 5:38 AM | PERMALINK

"This was not a blowout!"

You're right. Obama's campaign sunk $11.2 million in ad buys for Pennsylvania, which works out to about $12 a vote, and for their trouble got 80% of the votes Hillary received for having spent one-quarter the money he did.

Therefore, she was only able to inflict an old-fashioned ass-whipping on the guy.

Posted by: on April 23, 2008 at 6:16 AM | PERMALINK

"Obama has an insurmountable lead. He has an insurmountable lead in resources and donors. He connects with real Democratic voters and has already won the primary. And yet, the GOP still props the formerly admirable Hillary up to weaken their adversaries. I can't take the elmos or billbs seriously--they are sock-puppets for GOP douche-baggery. Machiavelli was right about the divide and conquer strategy. Hillary just doesn't seem to mind being ill-used. Lieberman II. How to win without being popular. Rove strikes again.
___________________________________________


What exactly do you mean by real Democratic voters? People who disagree with you? Cuz I gotta tell you, Sparko-you guys are going to have a hard enough time getting many Hillary supporters to vote for obama if he is the nominee.

With that attitude and chip on your shoulder, you have no chance.

Posted by: mollycoddle on April 23, 2008 at 6:22 AM | PERMALINK

How dare those PA voters think they have the right to choose Hillary? Don't they know Washington Monthly posters want Obama and Kevin has actually "voted Hillary off the Island?" Selfish motherfuckers. Those silly, silly "low information voters."

Posted by: Pat on April 23, 2008 at 6:43 AM | PERMALINK

You're quoted in the NYTimes!

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/?hp

Posted by: Emily on April 23, 2008 at 7:50 AM | PERMALINK

Jab says, "She really wants to win the nomination in 2008 by having superdelegates overturn the candidate who won more delegates, more states, more popular vote, raised more money, and brought new people into the party... if this is the case, African-Americans will abandon the party, as well as progressives, the young, and all those new voters. There is no way African-Americans are going to take a candidate who won the pledged delegates to be overturned..."
-------------------------

Guess what? African-Americans, the young and new voters are not enough to win a general election. In fact, they are clearly not enough to win a Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, California, etc... etc...

Obama supporters on the web are deluded by the fact that they outnumber Hillary supporters on liberal blogs. Guess what? Most of the world has no idea what goes on here and could care less. They have jobs and families to care about. And they picked Hillary last night.

Posted by: Teresa on April 23, 2008 at 8:06 AM | PERMALINK

I was SO GLAD to see this victory and watch the overpaid pundits sit with their lips flapping as it became clear that was the result! I will support neither candidate until they begin to reject the MSM and say and do things that convince me that they care MORE ABOUT AMERICA than themselves or the Democratic party...do I believe that will happen...??? Less and less every day...So sad

Posted by: Dancer on April 23, 2008 at 8:07 AM | PERMALINK

"And they picked Hillary last night."

And they'll pick Obama in North Carolina in a couple of weeks. Did you have a point to make?

Posted by: PaulB on April 23, 2008 at 8:23 AM | PERMALINK

There are only 3 reasons Clinton stays in this race:
(1) She wants this thing to stay undecided all the way to the convention, so that in the negotiating process for delegates, Obama is forced to select her as V.P. candidate.
(2) She really wants to win the nomination in 2008 by having superdelegates overturn the candidate who won more delegates, more states, more popular vote, raised more money, and brought new people into the party... if this is the case, African-Americans will abandon the party, as well as progressives, the young, and all those new voters. There is no way African-Americans are going to take a candidate who won the pledged delegates to be overturned...
(3)She wants to destroy Obama in 2008 so that McCain wins, so she can challenge him in 2012 with Obama out of the way.

To Hillary supporters: If #3 is what actually happens, there is no way she'll win the party's nomination in 2012. People will remember her as the Ralph Nader of 2008, only coming from the right side rather than the left.

Posted by: Vincent on April 23, 2008 at 8:45 AM | PERMALINK

In the exit polling I have not seen any reference to the 160,000 Republicans that changed affilitation for the spoiler role at the beheast of Rush Limbaugh. If these people actually voted for Clinton, how did they impact the result. These voters will not be there in the general.

Posted by: Michael Sheats on April 23, 2008 at 8:58 AM | PERMALINK

It is great to have this high level of interest in voting in the primary. This has allowed record numbers of Democratic voters to register. GOP enthusiasm is non-existent, so it is a huge ground advantage for the Dems. The protracted primary worries the GOP which is why there has been so much whining by the media to end the process. The huge numbers of new voters are really going to help a lot of down ballot Democrats win and put races into play that would have been GOP gimmees.

The primary has allowed both Clinton and Obama to campaign and get their message out. Does anyone believe that people would be flocking to rallies in red states like Indiana (or that Obama would even bother to come) if not for the contest. This is a huge boost for those of us in states with late primaries.

This is Hilary's last chance. She would be too old for a first term in 2012. McCain is way way too old for the job. Another reason for Clinton to stay in is to force Obama to fix some of his policy problems (health care, SS) before November.

Posted by: bakho on April 23, 2008 at 9:03 AM | PERMALINK

What the Obama campaign *can't* say right now, is the obvious elephant in the room. They forced Clinton to empty her campaign coffers on Pennsylvania (arguably the most Hillary friendly demographic in the US) in order to win by the 10 point lead she had 2 weeks ago. Basically they Reaganed her. The Cold War is drawing to a close because she will not have the resources to compete in the upcoming primaries which will be MUCH tougher for her. Hillary won the Battle of Pennsylvania, but Obama won the money war.

Posted by: Da5id on April 23, 2008 at 9:07 AM | PERMALINK

We'll see how it plays out. Although thwarted in Florida and Michigan, I figure Hillary's master plan to maximize the size of democratic voter rolls in the other 48 states has almost reached fruition. Obama should hold on to the money she's getting for him for the general though.

Posted by: asdf on April 23, 2008 at 9:14 AM | PERMALINK

I'm glad Pat understands - thanks Pat. Now can you take that message back to the rest of your cult?

Posted by: reader on April 23, 2008 at 9:18 AM | PERMALINK

Mike Barnicle and Joe Scarborough are making fools of themselves on MSNBC (acknowledging that that's not news)by claiming that Barack isn't answering the question of why does he love America (well the US part anyway). Not addressing the perfectly legitimate lapel pin issue, Barnicle wants to know if Barack would applaud the 2 soldiers returning from Iraq that Mike saw people cheering at Logan airport.
The citizenry wants to know if Barack is patriotic. Does he love America (the US part)or not? Answer the question!

Posted by: TJM on April 23, 2008 at 10:04 AM | PERMALINK

Like in Texas and Ohio, Obama's substantial financial advantage did not translate into a changed election result. In part, that was because Hillary had the support of the existing Dem political structure. Clearly, that support was worth a lot to her campaign but not reflected in the spending totals. I would be interested to hear a comparison of the ground organization Obama's people created to the ground organization available to Hillary. My guess is that it was the difference.

Posted by: steve on April 23, 2008 at 10:32 AM | PERMALINK

"In other words, the campaign was not only pointless, but pointless and wildly expensive."

Since when is an election pointless? If you think the spending was pointless, that's one thing. But saying a campaign is pointless is to say that we voters are an impediment to whatever end pollsters, pundits or partisans desire, and that's a meme I hear too much from the media and the Obama campaign. We are the reason for the campaign and I don't appreciate the disrespect.

Posted by: TPM on April 23, 2008 at 10:36 AM | PERMALINK

Ah, political campaigns, which transfer large quantities of money from upper middle class Americans to wealthy television station owners in the Philadelphia media market.

Posted by: John on April 23, 2008 at 10:42 AM | PERMALINK

Although, at this point, I'm hoping that Obama wins the nomination (I believe that Obama would bring out more Democratic voters in November than Hillary would), it's ridiculous for people to complain about the fact that Hillary won't drop out. In the race for delegates, it is 52% Obama, 48% Hillary. That is not a huge margin. It is not overwhelmingly clear that the voters prefer Obama over Clinton. It would be very unusual for Clinton to drop out with the margins are that close. Candidates drop out when their chance of winning drops to lottery ticket odds, and not before.

Posted by: Daryl McCullough on April 23, 2008 at 11:03 AM | PERMALINK

Pat: The "bitter" PA voters were obviously too busy playing with their guns, poring over their Bibles, and ironing their KKK robes to pay attention to the conventional wisdom that they should all just stay home and let the Obama coronation commence. They are so deluded that they had this crazy-ass notion that they should actually be able to go out and vote--and have their votes mean something!! Bunch o' clueless working-class slobs...

Obamabots love "the people" -- it's just democracy they can't stand...

I am from a very safe Democratic state and will have to think long and hard before I pull the lever for Obama in November --especially since he is now refusing to even debate again. Does he think he'll get away with that in the general election?

I'd never vote for McCain, but I may just not vote at the top of the slate. But since Obama is such a "uniter" who will have Republicans in his thrall, and since his victories in states like Mississipi, Wyoming and Idaho clearly mean that he will carry those states in the fall, I'm sure he'll coast to victory!

Posted by: eparker on April 23, 2008 at 11:04 AM | PERMALINK

Good win for Hillary last night. Nice effort on Obama's part. Need 2025 delegates to win nomination - neither candidate can achieve that whether they win the remaining states or not. There has been a lot of warnings (mostly from Obama supporters) about the Super Delegates overturning the will of the people - that's why the Super's were established in the first place though, wasn't it?

Posted by: bruce on April 23, 2008 at 11:25 AM | PERMALINK

"especially since he is now refusing to even debate again"

What on earth are you going to hear in a new debate that you didn't hear in the previous 20?

Posted by: PaulB on April 23, 2008 at 11:26 AM | PERMALINK

"In the race for delegates, it is 52% Obama, 48% Hillary. That is not a huge margin"

What people are focusing on is not the 52-48; it's the percentage of the remaining delegates Clinton would need to win. The last time I checked, that's in the neighborhood of 70%. Do you honestly see Clinton getting that? That's the figure that has people wondering whether Clinton should stay in the race or not.

Posted by: PaulB on April 23, 2008 at 11:29 AM | PERMALINK

Paul: The more people see and hear Obama, the more doubts they have about him. That's why he whines petulantly to the media when they try to ask him questions ("Can't I just eat my waaaaaaaaaaafle?!?") and that's why he doesn't want to debate any more. He wants the game called while he's ahead. I'm pretty sure someone else did that in 2000...

Posted by: eparker on April 23, 2008 at 11:32 AM | PERMALINK

Paul: Neither of them will have enough delegate to win once all the primaries are over.

At that point, you need to look at a lot of other factors, such as where the delegates come from -- important states for the Democrats or not? Do you want the person who won primaries PA, FL, NY, NJ, CA, etc. or the one who won primaries in states the Dems will lose big time anyhow and who won kaffeeklatsches in Iowa?

Posted by: eparker on April 23, 2008 at 11:40 AM | PERMALINK

PaulB,

The way I understand it, Hillary needs to win 436 more delegates to clinch the nomination, and Obama needs to win 310 more. Those numbers are not hugely different.

Posted by: Daryl McCullough on April 23, 2008 at 11:50 AM | PERMALINK

So let's look at what Pennsylvania really did for Clinton shall we:

According to cbs news, she made up a grand total of 13 delegates. She still trails by 126.

And she cut Obama's popular vote lead from 700K to 500K.

And now that Pennsylvania's off the table, she has NO CHANCE of catching Obama on either front.

Thems the facts.

Posted by: Joe on April 23, 2008 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

The more people see and hear Obama, the more doubts they have about him.

Not sure where you got that idea. Look at Pennsylvania, he was down by 20, and cut it down to 9.5. The more people see of Obama, the better he does.

Don't believe me? Check out the poll of polls.

And do I really need to bring up Hillary's rising negatives? Oops, I just did....

Posted by: Joe on April 23, 2008 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK

And let's not forget that she's effectively folding on North Carolina. For some reason, the media thinks North Carolina, with its 115 delegates and substantial population, is insignificant.

Posted by: Quinn on April 23, 2008 at 12:06 PM | PERMALINK

I am from a very safe Democratic state and will have to think long and hard before I pull the lever for Obama in November --especially since he is now refusing to even debate again. Does he think he'll get away with that in the general election?

Wake me up when it's over. We've had 22 debates, and that's enough. They've degenerated into 'gotcha' moments, therefore worthless to voters (watch a movie instead).

I'm going to let NC and Indiana call this one. I'm confident that Obama will prevail, and sometime in early June at the latest we'll have our nominee. And he'll win in November. It may be close, but so was JFK's victory in 1960.

Then we'll really have moved into the 21st century, which is very exciting. Enough of the 1990s already.

Posted by: nyc on April 23, 2008 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK

Fools. Obama has proven he can inspire slower voters with well delivered ripped off campaign slogans, and that he can not win large electoral states. He is not going to win with delegates, and there's a good chance he will lose a superdelgate count. Boo Hoo!! If he comes out the nominee, he has to have Clinton supporters to win. There is no way otherwise. It's not like Hillary doesn't have half of the Democratic support, and has proven to be more electable. In fact, if it was winner take all, we wouldn't even be talking about Obama.

Posted by: Geoff on April 23, 2008 at 12:41 PM | PERMALINK

To me it's rather telling that even after a victory, many of the HRC supporters here seem to still be really pissed off.

Posted by: Keith G on April 23, 2008 at 1:07 PM | PERMALINK

*

Posted by: mhr on April 23, 2008 at 1:39 PM | PERMALINK

I like your take on this Kevin. And it's not just because I completely agree.

Posted by: Temple Stark on April 23, 2008 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK

Fools. Obama has proven he can inspire slower voters

Slower voters? I thought we were latte-drinking, rich, elitists...or was that last week? At least tell me we're still cultists....

Posted by: Joe on April 23, 2008 at 4:34 PM | PERMALINK
....Therefore, she was only able to inflict an old-fashioned ass-whipping on the guy.: on at 6:16 AM
The proper expression is 'opening a can of whoop-ass'
....she's effectively folding on North Carolina..... Quinn at 12:06 PM
The Southern African-American vote has given all the old Confederate states to Obama, but there is no way he would carry any in the general election.
Hillary's rising negatives?.... Joe at 12:04 PM
That is only to be expected with all the negative media spin and the negative Obama campaign. The overwrought Olbermann, after thrashing Clinton for the first 20 minutes of each program, professed to be surprised that her 'negatives were up.' So what? Clinton wins despite her 'negatives.'
...now that Pennsylvania's off the table, she has NO CHANCE of catching Obama on either front....Joe at 11:56 AM
Facts are such malleable things:

Estimates vary slightly, but according to Real Clear Politics, Hillary has received 15,095,663 votes to Sen. Obama's 14,973,720, a margin of more than 120,000 votes. ABC News reported this morning that "Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama" in the popular vote.
(This count includes certified vote totals in Florida and Michigan.)

Why doesn't Obama cease his blocking of a re-do in those states so their voters can be heard?

.... earth are you going to hear in a new debate that you didn't hear in the previous 20? PaulB at 11:26 AM

Real women debate anywhere anytime. Others seem to find kitchen heat too much.
.... the 160,000 Republicans that changed affilitation for the spoiler role at the beheast of Rush Limbaugh....Michael Sheats at 8:58 AM

(b-e-h-e-s-t, a-f-f-i-l-i-a-t-i-o-n)
In general, Republicans who have voted in the Democratic primaries have tilted to Obama 58%
There are only 3 reasons Clinton stays in this race:....Vincent at 8:45 AM

It's interesting that none of your reasons happen to include the fact that she has the support of regular Democratic voters. Try again.
.... Did you have a point to make?....PaulB at 8:23 AM

The point is that Clinton has been winning large in states that the Democrats will need and can hope to win in the general election. As much as the African American vote is extremely important to the Democratic Party, there is no way that any of the Southern states will vote for Obama in the general election.

Posted by: Mike on April 23, 2008 at 6:49 PM | PERMALINK

You know what people who prefer Hillary and vote for her are called? Citizens. They are voting for her because they think she's the better citizen. Oh, and they're also called Democrats. And they also make up at least half of the Democrats. So when you call on their candidate of choice to quit the race just so it would make it easier for YOUR candidate of choice, it pisses them off. Maybe, instead of repeating your whine for Hillary to step out of the race, you should take a look at why she keeps winning. And just a hint--it doesn't help your cause if there is any implication that Hillary voters are blue collar rubes who don't know any better.

Posted by: Sheila on April 23, 2008 at 7:10 PM | PERMALINK

it ain't over till the fat lady sings, and we see the final results.

hillary isn't that fat.

Posted by: skippy on April 23, 2008 at 8:46 PM | PERMALINK

Hillary supposedly signed this DNC pledge last year-- it makes her look like a pretty big hypocrite for making the argument that Florida and Michigan should be included as part of the popular vote count. (Something that I heard Terry McAuliffe try and argue today.)

Here is the important part:

"THEREFORE, I Hillary Clinton, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as “campaigning” is defined by rules and regulations of the DNC."

It's a pretty simple argument-- Hillary agreed to the rules beforehand in writing and now says they don't apply. She didn't agree to a popular vote contest or a Biggest States Won contest. She agreed to the system we have and is trying to change the rules mid-game.

This tactic not only reeks of hypocrisy it reeks of desperation as well.

Posted by: clintonian hypocrisy on April 24, 2008 at 1:01 AM | PERMALINK

“Clinton Captures Crucial Win” in large font is what I see on the Yahoo! home page right now.
“Clinton Claims Victory in PA Primary” on CNN. Just look at a book 'Campaigns, Media, and Governing in the 21st Century':
http://dealstudio.com/searchdeals.php?deal_id=98819&ru=279 , The media just loves a horse race. But I thought that the candidate needed 2,025 electorial votes to win.

Posted by: Lyne on April 24, 2008 at 4:07 AM | PERMALINK

From Mike:

Estimates vary slightly, but according to Real Clear Politics, Hillary has received 15,095,663 votes to Sen. Obama's 14,973,720, a margin of more than 120,000 votes. ABC News reported this morning that "Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama" in the popular vote.
(This count includes certified vote totals in Florida and Michigan.)

So you're counting Michigan, a state where Obama wasn't on the ballot and everyone knew ahead of time that it wouldn't count. Obama received 0 votes and Hillary was basically given a net gain of 330,000 votes. Yeah, that's fair...

And then there's Florida...I don't care how much whining and complaining Hillary supporters do, they knew it wasn't going to count beforehand, so they have no argument. Hell, some of Hillary's closest advisers voted to strip Florida of its delegates. It doesn't count, case closed.

When you look at the ACTUAL popular vote total, Obama is up 500,000 votes after Pennsylvania.

I encourage everyone to watch the following hilarious youtube videos explaining "The Logic of Hillary":

Here's Part 1...

Posted by: Joe on April 24, 2008 at 11:44 AM | PERMALINK
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