See? We can't leave now!

Both.

The most astounding news about Iraq I've heard in a while is that 12,000 of our veterans attempted suicide over the past year.

This shows that the troops don't think that what they're fighting for is really worth it. If they believed Bush's and the media's lies about the Iraq war, they'd be able to rationalize and get past their harrowing experiences in pursuit of that aim better. Another possibility that doesn't have to exclude the first to still be true is that our commanders just aren't using the troops in combat the right way or aren't preparing them well enough to psychologically endure the risks.

38 US casualities in Iraq so far this month

Did you know that on 4/21/08 an RPG hit a japanese oil tanker off the coast of Yemen? It's bout to get real ugly.

tinfoil - that was pirates, nothing to do with Iraq

I'm trying to think of a reason the Sunni leadership would be happy their fighters are being released from prison while the two main Shia groups are fighting each other. Hmmm...

tinfoil - that was pirates, nothing to do with Iraq

D'oh! Another attempt to lump all violence committed by non-white people under the label "Al Qaeda" foiled!

I have more good news from Iraq - We have destroyed their educational system! We really shouldn’t be surprised, though. If there is one thing that Republicans are good at, it is destroying public education.

The Sadr movement is a nationalist one. Any serious attempt to "put it out of business" will serve only to harden its resolve against the invaders. America has been here so many times before, with the same result; it's just too depressing to contemplate that this nonsense, and the reams of pointless "policy" and "analysis" it has generated, is just going to continue for another 5 years.

The Sunni tribes are still preparing to reconquer Baghdad, though. Don't think for a minute that this is anything less than a temporary arrangement.

A few weeks ago, posters here were loudly deriding the efforts of the Maliki government to regain control of Basra. Now, according to the Times of London:

"One month on and Iraq's leader can justifiably claim to have scored a stunning victory, probably the first of its kind by the post-Saddam Iraqi army. The most notorious areas of Basra are now under government control, the Mahdi Army of Moqtadr al-Sadr has been roundly defeated and the long suffering people of Basra are celebrating freedoms they did not enjoy during the four years of British military rule in the city."

The key is the ability to sustain operations, not simply start them. The ability to resupply and reinforce is crucial. Personal militias, no matter how large, lack the staying power of most government forces, so long as the government leadership remains steadfast.

A few weeks ago, posters here were loudly deriding the efforts of the Maliki government

Uh, no they weren't. Rather a few weeks ago posters here were deriding the weak and repetitive attempts of people like yourselves to falsely paint the Iraqi army as some sort of capable fighting force - and using that to argue that the misadventure in Iraq is now finally some kind of "success."

Clearly they are not, and Iraq is just as much a disaster as ever.

Any derision of Maliki was pointed toward the fact that the assault on Basra was a cynical ploy to use the power of the government to try and defang his powerful political opponent before the fall elections, while putting his own party and militia in control of the oil rich region of Basra.

You know, just like the Bush administration did by illegally invading Iraq based on a bogus threats.

It is a good thing that the quality of life has improved in Basra as a result of U.S. and British forces taking over the battle from an incapable Iraqi military.

Well, except for the fact that the Badr militia - er, "Iraqi forces" are notorious for running death squads at night. What are you gonna do?

the Mahdi Army of Moqtadr al-Sadr has been roundly defeated

Bwa ha hahahahaha! Were you able to type that with a straight face?

But seriously, personal militias, more aptly referred to as "nationalist guerilla forces" in the context of this discussion, have neither the need nor interest to engage in firefights with armor. Since they are first and foremost "the populace," they can simply melt back into their daily routines until opportunity presents itself again.

Unless you saw a minimum of 60,000 casualties in Basra that someone else overlooked.

So, what else would you like to be wrong about? How about the question of whether or not the U.S. engages in torture? That one has really come back and bit you on the ass, hasn't it? You really couldn't have been more wrong. I mean, after being so mind-bogglingly wrong doesn't it give you pause to question your judgment or your a priori assumptions? No? Not even a teensy bit?

Next.

In this case, all one has to do is look at the actual outcome. What did Maliki give up and what did Sadr give up? What did each accomplish? If you look at Maliki's stated goals, he got none of them. His fighters could not handle the situation in either Baghdad or in Basra, so he had to call in U.S. and British forces to bail them out. He failed to get a surrender, failed to gain new ground, and was, in fact, driven out of Basra after vowing to stay there and fight "until the end".

In addition, from all accounts, the militias haven't given up any real power in Basra and their members haven't given up their weapons. The Iraqi security forces have shown that they are not capable of taking control. Far from the "decisive and final battle" that Maliki insisted would happen, he basically battled to a draw. And a draw definitely does not work in his favor.

Even worse for Maliki and for the U.S., the truce that was negotiated, brokered by Iran, appears to have been negotiated without their knowledge and without their approval. Iran is strengthened; the U.S. is weakened. The U.S. is further weakened, since the fighting of the past week has pretty conclusive demonstrated the failure of "the Surge". Petraeus is going to be in for a hard time when he testifies before Congress. This was not a good outcome.

Posted by: PaulB on April 1, 2008

I didn't type that bit about the Mahdi Army having been given a defeat. It was a quote from the Times of London, which I cut and pasted.

Your opinion about whether I'm wrong or not does not matter, trex. For all I care, you can keep telling me how wrong I am, right up till the time when the Iraqi government has effective control over all their territory.

One would think you'd welcome some sign of our success, since it will make our withdrawal all that more likely. Well, stay wedded to your dreams of cataclysmic defeat, if you like. The rest of us have a job to complete.

In the context created by the course of the war in Iraq, particularly after early 2006, it is reasonable to believe the road to stability lies through suppression of the groups most likely to attack Iraqi civilians. The Sunni Arab extremist groups (sometimes grouped under the rubric AQI) and Sadr's militia fit that description, and the American command in Iraq appears to have devoted most of its efforts against them both for some time now.

From a strategic point of view, I see no conceivable outcome in Iraq worth the price we have already paid for it. Tactically, however, the American military has followed a generally correct course in a very bad situation. Sadr's full story has yet to be told, but it may be that he overplayed his hand, holding out of the government in the expectation it would weaken it and increase his own popularity. His problem has always been how to expand his organization's strength outside its base in the Sadr City section of Baghdad, and he does not seem to have solved it.

"Your opinion about whether I'm wrong or not does not matter, trex. For all I care, you can keep telling me how wrong I am, right up till the time when the Iraqi government has effective control over all their territory.

One would think you'd welcome some sign of our success, since it will make our withdrawal all that more likely. Well, stay wedded to your dreams of cataclysmic defeat, if you like. The rest of us have a job to complete."

In what fantasy world do these people live? Five years into Iraq, 4,050 American dead, tens of thousands of wounded, hundreds of thousands of Iraqis dead, millions displaced, their infrastructure in ruins, America over $3 trillion in debt in the last 7 years, over $500 billion on this war in direct expenses so far, with hundreds of billions on into the future, our international standing and respect at the lowest ebb in history, Iran strengthened politically, Al Qaida strengthened politically and militarily and Osama Bin Laden still loose over 6 and a half years after 9-11.

On what Bizarro world could anyone even talk about "success" or victory, even if Iraq were to miraculously become a peaceful Jeffersonian Democracy with a secular government and strong respect for the rule of law? How can this even be a debate or a discussion? It's a disaster, it was predicted to be a disaster by the people with commons sense and a knowledge of history, it was predicted to get worse, and it has. Recognizing reality does not make a liberal a cheerleader for defeat.

Get. The. Troops. Home. Now.

"It's a disaster, it was predicted to be a disaster by the people with commons sense and a knowledge of history, it was predicted to get worse, and it has. Recognizing reality does not make a liberal a cheerleader for defeat."
__________________

James, it was on the way to being a disaster, but we've come a great ways toward remedying that. It was predicted to get worse and instead it is getting better. Not realizing that fact is what leads one to be a cheerleader for defeat.

You ask what world we live in? We live in the world of people who are conducting the war. We live in the world of those who are working to win, despite our losses. It's not that we are uncaring about the costs we've already paid. But we've already paid those costs and losing the war simply to satisfy your personal feeling of disgust is not something we are willing to do. Our sense of duty will not allow it.

The next President may choose to throw it all away, though I doubt it. But, either way, it is our job to present him or her with as good a situation in Iraq as we can. Wailing on the part of unschooled non-participants about how terribly awful and hopeless it all is has very little bearing on anything.

Iraq will turn out to be the easier of the two campaigns in which we are currently engaged. Afghanistan, now that has the makings of a real quagmire.

Oddly, the people of Basra seem to think the Basra Operation was pretty
successful.

Yet after three years of being terrified of kidnap, rape and murder � a
fate that befell scores of other women � Nadyia Ahmed, 22, is among those
enjoying a sense of normality, happy for the first time to attend her
science course at Basra University. �I now have the university life that I
heard of at high school before the war and always dreamt about,� she told
The Times. �It was a nightmare because of these militiamen. I only
attended class three days a week but now I look forward to going every day.�

Why do so few people around here believe it?

Everett - I guess it depends on which faction an Iraqi supports, and which militia controls your neighborhood. Sadr's forces have never controlled all of Basra. They are just one criminal gang/religious army among many.

the sky is falling!!

eeek!!!!!

trashie: One would think you'd welcome some sign of our success

I do....KEEP CLAPPING!!!!!!!

trash: It was predicted to get worse

oh that's not true..

actually..since 2002....

it was continually predicted to get better....

Sen. McCain on CNN on Sept. 24, 2002: “I believe that the success will be fairly easy.�

"My belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators. - Dick Cheney [3/16/03]

"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed." –President Bush, standing under a "Mission Accomplished" banner on the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier, May 2, 2003

"I think they're in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency." --Vice President Dick Cheney, on the Iraq insurgency, June 20, 2005

ouch

Folks, listen to the handle that is trashy, it is a walking talking point.

Win/lose, that is the message on Iraq.

We are a sick country led by sick people. The people who live in Iraq, who have had holy hell reigned down upon their lives by the giant in the west, have been reduced to a tick mark in a column; W or L.

as the obamanation, our souls will be healed by obamaman, the sky will stop falling, the heavens will open up, the light will shine, we'll surrender Iraq to the bad guys and they will suddenly play nice and leave us alone, and more of us will get to suck on the Big Teat.

heaven on earth.

hallelujah!

Wow, I never saw so mnay liberla traitors in one place in all my life.

Hey, can you liberals tell me something? Why are you suffering from so much white guilt and why are you all so effeminate?

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