Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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April 25, 2008
By: Kevin Drum

NO OPTIONS OFF THE TABLE....Yesterday the question was, what does "deal with Iran" mean to Joint Chiefs chairman Mike Mullen? Today he answers. Sort of:

Mullen said the U.S. government will not take any option off the table in responding to the Iranian threat. But speaking to reporters today, Mullen repeatedly made clear that he preferred dealing with the problem through diplomatic or financial pressure rather than a military strike.

Still, Mullen said the military had plans to respond to a variety of potential incidents involving Iran...."I have reserve capability in our Air Force and Navy," Mullen said. "It would be a mistake to think we are out of combat capability."

So there.

Kevin Drum 11:37 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (22)
 
Comments

He better wear an athletic cup, just in case Iran aims for his balls.

Posted by: steve duncan on April 25, 2008 at 11:44 AM | PERMALINK

i heard a brief blurb on a business channel that a "contracted" US ship had "fired on" an Iranian ship. ???? No news out there yet?

Posted by: brkily on April 25, 2008 at 11:54 AM | PERMALINK

I have it from reliable sources that Mullen is planning to use Inkblot as his secret weapon.

So Kevin, you might as well get the little critters boots and fatigues out of the closet and brush the fur off. In the meantime, I'll knit Inky a new beret.

Posted by: optical weenie on April 25, 2008 at 11:56 AM | PERMALINK

"I have reserve capability in our Air Force and Navy," Mullen said. "It would be a mistake to think we are out of combat capability."

Translation: It would be a mistake for my career to admit that we are out of combat capability.

Posted by: nemo on April 25, 2008 at 11:57 AM | PERMALINK

nemo:

no, Mullen's right. for all practical purposes, the Air Force and Navy are barely at war. lots of assets available. what we can't do is anything on the ground.

Posted by: Nathan on April 25, 2008 at 12:05 PM | PERMALINK

Nathan's right.

Given America's limited ground capability, a simultaneous escalation in Afghanistan and, say, an Iranian intrusion into Iraq or a North Korean-led invasion of the South and tactical nukes start looking like the next best option to countering ground assaults.

Bush and Cheney are probably thinking, "Of course, that's why we built the nukes in the first place."

What a house of cards the Administration has built up. Things could go massively wrong in a hot little hurry.

Posted by: pj in jesusland on April 25, 2008 at 12:21 PM | PERMALINK

"for all practical purposes, the Air Force and Navy are barely at war. lots of assets available. what we can't do is anything on the ground."

Then the Air Force and Navy don't matter, do they? We are out of combat capability. But it's harmful to Mullen's career to admit it.

Posted by: nemo on April 25, 2008 at 12:26 PM | PERMALINK
no, Mullen's right. for all practical purposes, the Air Force and Navy are barely at war. lots of assets available. what we can't do is anything on the ground.

Air and naval power without ground forces (either ours or someone else's already fighting the same enemy) aren't usually a recipe for victory. Further, it seems likely that Iran has the capacity, in the event of a conflict, to increase the demands on our land combat forces in neighboring areas (particular Iraq), so if we don't have spare land combat power, we don't have the capacity to fight Iran.

So, while the explicit premise that the Air Force and Navy have spare combat power would seem to be accurate, the implicit premise that air and naval power equates to capacity to take effective military action against Iran is dubious, as, therefore, is the conclusion that the US the capacity to take effective military action against Iran.

Posted by: cmdicely on April 25, 2008 at 12:28 PM | PERMALINK

"for all practical purposes, the Air Force and Navy are barely at war. lots of assets available. what we can't do is anything on the ground."

For Mullen to say in that situation that we are not out of combat capability is like saying that your car is in perfect running order even though the entire electrical system is kaput. It doesn't matter that everything else in the car is in perfect running order.

Posted by: nemo on April 25, 2008 at 12:34 PM | PERMALINK

The probable option for Bush is to provoke a confrontation, like, say the Gulf of Tonkin

US military ship shoots at Iranian boats
A ship contracted by the US military fired warning shots towards two Iranian boats, American defence officials said today.
...
The ship was approached by two unidentified small boats and its crew issued "standard queries" to the vessels by radio but did not receive a response, she said. The ship then fired a flare. The boats continued to approach the cargo ship and its security team fired "a few bursts" of machine gun and rifle warning shots, Robertson said.
"The small boats left the area a short time later," she added.
However, Tehran played down the incident, saying there was no confrontation....

While the Navy and Air Force have ample resources to bomb Iran (bomb bomb Iran as More-of-the-Same McCain advocates), Iran has the ability to shock the price of oil to over $200 per barrel which would decimate the world economy and put us into a depression worse than anything we've seen.

Posted by: Mike on April 25, 2008 at 12:38 PM | PERMALINK

Weenie: Inkblot as his secret weapon

Is it a good idea to send the commander in chief into combat?
No, wait. Probably is a good idea. I'd start knitting parachutes, too!

cmdicely: Air and naval power without ground forces ... aren't usually a recipe for victory.
Victory isn't the goal. Endless war is the goal. Heckuva job, so far.

Posted by: thersites on April 25, 2008 at 12:53 PM | PERMALINK

Nuking Iran: On the table

Impeaching George W. Bush, Richard B. Cheney and cabal: Off the table

Posted by: lopez on April 25, 2008 at 1:18 PM | PERMALINK

I read that there were some British businessmen supplying Iran with arms.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mullen's right. for all practical purposes, the Air Force and Navy are barely at war. lots of assets available. -Nathan

53 percent of Air Force units, many using aging aircraft that require more frequent repairs, were considered “green,” or fully mission-capable, as of March, according to service data.

Posted by: Jet on April 25, 2008 at 1:38 PM | PERMALINK

Shorter Admiral Mullen: "I don't want to end my career like Admiral Fallon and General Shinseki."

And nathan, I'll bet the Navy and Air Force are pretty surprised to hear that they're "barely at war." Ask your local Air National Guardsman what he/she thinks about that one as they ship off yet again to the Mess in Mesopotamia...

Posted by: Susan on April 25, 2008 at 1:39 PM | PERMALINK

As lopez says: Impeachment unthinkable, tactical nukes "bring um on". Of course you cannot win or hold any ground with Navy/Airpower, but you can certainly make a hell of a mess. And a hell of a mess might be just the thing to continue/increase military spending.

Posted by: bigTom on April 25, 2008 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK


pj: Things could go massively wrong in a hot little hurry.

RAPTURE--IFFIC!

Posted by: Rev. John Hagee on April 25, 2008 at 1:45 PM | PERMALINK

that's why all the teevee chattermonkeys for a couple of years now have been pimping their ratings bonanza of a nuke hit on iran.. woof, lou dobbs, chris matthews, tim russert -- are all just rubbing their fat thighs thinking about it.

and whaddaya know --

U.S. ship opens fire on patrol boats near Iran
Buzz up!Like this story? Share it with Yahoo! Buzz
An American cargo ship opened fire yesterday after it was confronted by patrol boats about 50 miles from the coast of Iran, CNN reports.

The all-news network says that the ship was carrying cargo to Kuwait on behalf of the U.S. military.

Reuters quotes an unidentified Defense Department official who confirmed that one of the Military Sealift Command's contract vessels was involved in the incident.

USA TODAY has requested comment from the U.S. Navy.

Update at 11:14 a.m. ET: Fox News reports that the Westward Venture fired warning shots at two Iranian boats after they failed to respond to warnings that they were getting too close to the contracted ship.

Posted by: linda on April 25, 2008 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK
...."I have reserve capability in our Air Force and Navy," Mullen said. "It would be a mistake to think we are out of combat capability."

Wasn't Saddam saying similar things to Iran in the years before we invaded to confiscate his boasted of WMDs? I'm sure Mullen has equal credibility

Posted by: Cowalker on April 25, 2008 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK

...."I have reserve capability in our Air Force and Navy," Mullen said. "It would be a mistake to think we are out of combat capability."

When the US, which spends more on defense (or should we say offense?) than the rest of the world combined, has to make an assurance that it is not actually out of combat capability, we can pretty much assume that it actually is. But the again this regime has always been a big fan of the speak loudly and carry a small stick school of foreign relations.

Posted by: Stefan on April 25, 2008 at 1:58 PM | PERMALINK

Mullen >..."It would be a mistake to think we are out of combat capability."

Translated = an "OMG we`re in a fight for our way of life" draft once we start pulling our combat forces out of East Asia.

The Marines would probably show the first indication of this as grunts & attached units in Okinawa were moved to the Persian Gulf area.

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it." - George Bernard Shaw

Posted by: daCascadian on April 25, 2008 at 5:13 PM | PERMALINK

You can't bluff if all your cards are showing. Iran has known all along that we aren't going to attack them with ground troops and if we bomb any of their installations all hell breaks loose in Iraq. This Administration is run by rich, elite dopes who haven't learned that you don't always get what you want.

Posted by: William Jensen on April 25, 2008 at 10:22 PM | PERMALINK

Air and naval power without ground forces (either ours or someone else's already fighting the same enemy) aren't usually a recipe for victory.
Posted by: cmdicely

They were a many-years recipe for deterrence against the Soviets.

Folks here keep thinking the choices are invade and conquer Iran or not invade and conquer Iran. False dilemma.

Posted by: sjrsm on April 27, 2008 at 10:32 AM | PERMALINK
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