Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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April 29, 2008
By: Kevin Drum

ECONOMY UPDATE....The economy continues to suck:

In the 12 months ended in February, the Case-Shiller home price index, which measures the value of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan regions, fell 13.6 percent, the biggest decline since records began in 1987....The slump in home prices was more severe than the worst point of the recession of the 1990s, the last time values fell so far, so quickly.

....The problems have contributed to a deepening gloom, which was reinforced on Tuesday by a grim confidence survey released by the Conference Board. The private report, which surveys up to 5,000 American households, dropped to its lowest point since March 2003, at the start of the invasion of Iraq. Americans feel worse about the economy's prospects than any time since the mid-1970s, and many are bracing for job losses.

The consumer confidence number has now dropped a staggering 28 points in just four months. And don't forget that first quarter GDP estimates come out tomorrow. Brace yourselves for more bad news.

Kevin Drum 3:49 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (41)

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Comments

I'm feeling very unconfident, too. Where is my McMansion?

Posted by: Anon on April 29, 2008 at 3:51 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, stop being such a party pooper. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the economy, sure a litte slow down, but your $600 check should fix that.

Just ask Norman.

Posted by: optical weenie on April 29, 2008 at 3:54 PM | PERMALINK

I blame our national malaise on Reverend Wright.

Posted by: Wapiti on April 29, 2008 at 4:02 PM | PERMALINK

At least we have the comfort of knowing that none of this is the fault of George W. Bush. He told us so during his snooze conference this morning.

It's the fault of those damn Congressional Democrats again!

Posted by: Lifelong Dem on April 29, 2008 at 4:12 PM | PERMALINK

It's all the Democrats' fault!

At least, it is according to Bush

Posted by: bleh on April 29, 2008 at 4:13 PM | PERMALINK

The propaganda response to that is "Look how much worse the great depression was, so don't be ridiculous, this isn't the great depression, you're just trying to undermine the economy because you're embarrassed that the war is going so well." I shit you not.

Posted by: winston on April 29, 2008 at 4:24 PM | PERMALINK

WTF does this have to do with Wright and his association with obama?

Posted by: Kevin K on April 29, 2008 at 4:24 PM | PERMALINK

The propaganda response to that is "Look how much worse the great depression was, so don't be ridiculous, this isn't the great depression, you're just trying to undermine the economy because you're embarrassed that the war is going so well." I shit you not.

Posted by: winston on April 29, 2008 at 4:24 PM | PERMALINK

And it wasn't a double post, I meant to do that, I have to say it over and over like that because you are denying reality.

Posted by: winston on April 29, 2008 at 4:27 PM | PERMALINK

That's nice. Now can we please get back to Flag Pingate, Bittergate, or Wrightgate?

Posted by: Plan 9 on April 29, 2008 at 4:33 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin K - try googling 'sarcasm'

Posted by: kis on April 29, 2008 at 4:34 PM | PERMALINK

“There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers,” said David M. Blitzer, who oversees the index, in a statement.

That was the most telling part of the story.

Like Chinese finger cuffs, every knee jerk reaction to this mess just tightens the noose. Only massive government intervention that forces banks to work with homeowners on loan modification and adjustment of credit rating criteria will stem foreclosures, free up needed buyers, and help stabilize both banks AND the market.

Posted by: trex on April 29, 2008 at 4:43 PM | PERMALINK

I lost my job four weeks ago. Two people that I know lost their jobs at other companies, in other fields, during the same time period.

But you know something ... I am really upset at Miley Cyrus for appearing topless on the cover of that magazine. What are we going to tell the children? I understand a number of Hollywood stars are critical of her judgement.

And I worry about that Obama guy and his pastor. I worry about it a lot. I am concerned that Obama may not have the character to, um ....

Oh, yeah ... what was I talking about? Losing my job, and not having any way to feed my family. Just a little thing like that.

It is just so easy to get distracted.

Posted by: Bokonon on April 29, 2008 at 5:18 PM | PERMALINK

Bokonon on April 29, 2008 at 5:18 PM:

It is just so easy to get distracted.

Well, you could sell your teevee to buy some food...the bonus is that you won't be as easily distracted...

Posted by: grape_crush on April 29, 2008 at 5:36 PM | PERMALINK

I'm takin' my tax rebate down and throw a party at the Exxon/Mobil station. Sorry, I'm the only one invited.

Posted by: thersites on April 29, 2008 at 5:36 PM | PERMALINK

I don't think we need to be gloomy.

The tax rebates are on the way. I know that every cent has/is been/will nullified by the increases in such trivial items like gas and food prices, but hey, next up is the fabulous idea of a gas tax "holiday."

Now we can look forward to more bridges collapsing (since much of the gas tax goes into the Federal Highway trust fund which is used (we hope) to shore up the infrastructure).

The war? Why should we bother ourselves in contemplating the future costs to society as we try and deliver medical care to the 1,000s of vets who are brain damaged.* I mean, how DOES one wrap their own brain around a 3-4 trillion dollar price tag on the debacle in the desert?

We need jobs. We need a huge industrial revival that manufactures stuff like solar cells, methane digesters (farming waste), and innovative public transportation (like small monorails), etc. Time to make stuff in the USA.

Oh yeah, it'd be a good idea to grow food not "fool fuel" aka ethanol. A true example of dumb economics.

We need intelligent designers, not creationistic idiots running our country!

The economy is a reflection of old ways gone bad.

Bush is fooling nobody when he blames Congress for the mess. What happened to that surplus that you squandered, George? Got War?

*none of whom deserved such a fate.

Posted by: Tom Nicholson on April 29, 2008 at 5:39 PM | PERMALINK

Hey Kevin, I know you aren't one to brag, but congrats on calling the housing bubble several years ago to much scorn and eye rolling by certain people. Having been right is thin comfort, but we take what comfort we can,

Posted by: EmmaAnne on April 29, 2008 at 6:01 PM | PERMALINK

Where is my McMansion?
Posted by: Anon

I just picked it up at auction. Happy Days are Here Again!

Posted by: the ugly duckling on April 29, 2008 at 6:05 PM | PERMALINK

You want to know how mad the world has become. McCain and Clinton have joined to propose a Gas Tax Holiday. Obama and Bush oppose it. Obama and Bush are right. Clinton and McCain will win votes. Maybe we are really going to get the government we deserve. If we fall for the Gas Holiday pander we don't deserve anything better than John McCain.

Posted by: Ron Byers on April 29, 2008 at 6:06 PM | PERMALINK

Cheer up. My rebate will be here any day. It ought to make a nice down payment on a Hummer, which will allow me to take advantage of all the free gas Hillary is going to give away.

Posted by: fafner1 on April 29, 2008 at 6:24 PM | PERMALINK

In re: jobs. And Hummers.

It would be cool if there was a means to retrofit existing cars with electrics. Hybrid retrofits would be pretty involved, but going pure electric can't be that bad.
Would hopefully make for less gas usage(and let's face it, cars aren't going to become less popular any time soon) for short money compared to buying new.
And somebody would have to build, ship(d'oh!) and install that stuff.

Posted by: kenga on April 29, 2008 at 6:37 PM | PERMALINK
It would be cool if there was a means to retrofit existing cars with electrics. Hybrid retrofits would be pretty involved, but going pure electric can't be that bad.

A "mild" hybrid retrofit would probably be the easiest, either a full hybrid or an electric conversion means replacing or paralleling the drivetrain with an electric one and replacing the entire engine, which is a fairly extensive refit in either case; a "mild" hybrid should be doable with less extensive modifications, mostly to the starter motor.

Posted by: cmdicely on April 29, 2008 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK

McCain and Clinton have joined to propose a Gas Tax Holiday.

Free pothole with each fillup!

Posted by: ThresherK on April 29, 2008 at 7:12 PM | PERMALINK

It's probably a bit late in the day to say this, but...sell on the rumor, buy on the news!

(unless you read Mr. Blitzer, in which case, if there's an uptick, sell short and count your vulture gains as America descends into the abyss!)

{apologies for inability to snark adequately about this mess}

Posted by: marych on April 29, 2008 at 7:18 PM | PERMALINK
And don't forget that first quarter GDP estimates come out tomorrow. Brace yourselves for more bad news.

More like, brace yourself for moderately unpleasant news that will be radically adjusted downward six months and two weeks from now...

Posted by: Mary Contrary on April 29, 2008 at 8:15 PM | PERMALINK

Peak oil, peak _______. There's a peak to the economy too. Let "continued economic growth" slip away from your presumptions ...

Posted by: on April 29, 2008 at 8:23 PM | PERMALINK

cmdicely, maybe we could at least put in motors that would absorb the energy from braking and store it. Braking wastes so much energy during urban commutes and traffic jams.

Posted by: Neil B. on April 29, 2008 at 8:25 PM | PERMALINK


Check out this chart Here from Floyd Norris of the NYT.

Posted by: Jet on April 29, 2008 at 10:11 PM | PERMALINK

Don't worry, John McCain will save us from a recession by being an even more irresponsible spendthrift than George W Bush.

Sadly, there will be voters who will vote for it.

Posted by: freelunch on April 29, 2008 at 10:36 PM | PERMALINK

Braking wastes so much energy during urban commutes and traffic jams.

Yes, it is considerable. You can use compressed air instead of electricity (I've posted this link b4):
http://www.engineer.ucla.edu/stories/2003/hybrid.htm

"Like its cousin the electric hybrid, air hybrid vehicles are being explored as a more fuel-efficient means of traveling the nation's roads, especially in urban areas, where stop-and-go traffic leads to a wasteful use of gas. During a typical day of city driving, fuel energy used to accelerate the vehicle is partially wasted during deceleration, when kinetic energy is converted into heat in the friction brakes."

But there are downsides:

1) Requires big changes to the valvetrain of the conventional gas engine (creating a dedicated engine for this application-IOW engine can't be used economically in a non-hybrid configuration).

2) You can't "plug it in" at home to the grid at night because there isn't a battery to charge. I suppose you could use an electric air compressor and larger air tank... but not sure on all that.

Posted by: Doc at the Radar Station on April 29, 2008 at 10:57 PM | PERMALINK

Another way to not waste energy braking:
Don't rush up behind people that are driving more slowly than you are, and then slam on your brakes. Jeebus, I hate to see that. Your mileage may vary.

Posted by: thersites on April 29, 2008 at 11:13 PM | PERMALINK

thersites, what I like to do is get behind a large truck because you can follow with more distance without someone cutting in front of you making it possible to just back off and get on the accelerator lightly with the undulations in traffic flow. The worst is someone on a cell phone that has to follow everybody on their bumper-no matter what lane, no matter how fast, no matter what the logic of the traffic lights are-their brake lights constantly flashing on and off. Kind of like impatient fruit flies in a way.

Posted by: Doc at the Radar Station on April 29, 2008 at 11:47 PM | PERMALINK

Shouldn't we correct the decline in home prices to reflect also the decline in the value of the dollar by subtracting another 33%?

Posted by: Luther on April 30, 2008 at 2:26 AM | PERMALINK

Luther, shhhh! You're not supposed to notice or cause anyone else to notice.

Posted by: slanted tom on April 30, 2008 at 6:41 AM | PERMALINK

...We need jobs. We need a huge industrial revival that manufactures stuff like SOLAR CELLS, methane digesters (farming waste), and innovative public transportation (like small monorails), etc. Time to make stuff in the USA.
Posted by: Tom Nicholson on April 29, 2008 at 5:39 PM


(While all the presidential candidates were railing about lost manufacturing jobs in Ohio, no one noticed that America’s premier solar company, First Solar, from Toledo, Ohio, was opening its newest factory in the former East Germany — 540 high-paying engineering jobs — because Germany has created a booming solar market and America has not.
In 1997, said Resch, America was the leader in solar energy technology, with 40 percent of global solar production. “Last year, we were less than 8 percent, and even most of that was manufacturing for overseas markets.”)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/opinion/30friedman.html?ref=opinion

See, I told you so.

Posted by: Tom Nicholson on April 30, 2008 at 9:06 AM | PERMALINK

I'm gonna offer one very real practical idea and then I'm gonna resort to humor for this depressing topic.

The practical idea is this - in all new cars include the function to display real-time gas mileage. The information is already there in the car computer. Put a small display somewhere high where it is easy to see.

Yeah, idiots will ignore it and punks will try to get a low score but the people buying the gas will actually SEE how sucky it is to surge and then brake.

Okay - humor.

winston - do you taste good like a cigarette should?

The best bumper stickers I've seen were these:

Bush - No child left a dime.
Frodo failed, Bush has the ring.

and also

Try Jesus - if that doesn't work the devil will take you back.

Not funny you say? Someone wrote "Jews" and a swastika on it. I wonder if the driver knew or approved of the change?

Posted by: Tripp on April 30, 2008 at 10:49 AM | PERMALINK

Doc,

I'm sure you know that "drafting" give better gas mileage for both the following car and the lead car, for the same reason the longer a boat is the faster it goes. But how can you stand the truck blocking your vision?

I totally agree with how annoying it is to have a distracted driver using my car as a cruise control. These days they are probably talking on a cell phone, but sometimes on the highway they are simply half-awake. Once on an empty highway during a long trip a guy came out of nowhere and got behind me. We were the only cars for miles.

If I had the James Bond "oil spill" option I may have used it, but instead I pressed the cruise "coast" button. I got down to about 30 MPH before the idiot snapped out of it and passed me.

Posted by: Tripp on April 30, 2008 at 10:55 AM | PERMALINK
cmdicely, maybe we could at least put in motors that would absorb the energy from braking and store it.

Most even "mild" hybrids do that, as well, yes. I'd imagine that would be a feature of any reasonable mild hybrid retrofit

Posted by: cmdicely on April 30, 2008 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK

Tripp,

"Drafting" would help more at higher speeds. The scenario I'm talking about is when traffic is just moderately heavy, but steadily flowing at say 30-40mph or so and you've got a lot of people changing lanes a lot and cutting in front of you slamming on their brakes frequently, etc. I also notice these people only get ahead a few car lengths at most after several lights, and sometimes not at all. The big truck blocking my forward vision is OK with me. I can stop faster than he can if I need to.

Posted by: Doc at the Radar Station on April 30, 2008 at 2:03 PM | PERMALINK

Ah. I've heard of traffic conditions like that. That is one of the reasons I moved from the burbs.

I've got a funny story about a little car tailgating my brother's cement truck. The car tried to pass on the right as my brother was taking a right turn. Big mistake. The car was lucky the cement truck only went over the hood, wrecking the radiator, front suspension, and probably more. Both tires were bent outward at the bottom. A couple feet differently and the guy woulda been crushed if the truck went over the driver's seat.

My brother barely felt a bump in the truck.

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