June 2, 2008
EDWARDS WINS ON THE ROAD....SurveyUSA has been putting out an interesting series of Obama-McCain polls where they test possible VP choices. In some ways, the polls were badly done -- what's the point of asking people if they prefer Obama-Sebelius to McCain-Pawlenty in Virginia, where nobody knows who Sebelius or Pawlenty are? It might've been better to test, say, Mark Warner there. (You wanted Jim Webb? He's a good Senator and all, but you really need to read Kathy Geier on this.)
The one thing that the polls do show, though, is that John Edwards is a devastatingly effective VP choice for Obama. He performs equal or better than the other Democrats in their home states and helps Obama beat McCain's VP picks in their home states.
Take Pennsylvania, where Ed Rendell is a popular governor. But against any Republican pairing, an Obama/Edwards ticket does better than Obama/Rendell by 3 to 5 points, and leaves every other pairing far behind. There's no reason to consider Rendell for VP against numbers like this -- John Edwards can beat him in the state he's supposed to secure.
Or take Kansas, where Kathleen Sebelius is popular. An Obama/Edwards ticket does better than Obama/Sebelius against two opponents, while Obama/Sebelius does better than Obama/Edwards against two. There still is good reason to consider Sebelius, in part because her history of converting Republicans would reinforce Obama's message of national unity (which I find annoying, but whatever). But it's pretty impressive that Edwards is neck-and-neck with her on her home turf.
The only Obama VP possibility who does better than Edwards in his home state is Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who could win Nebraska for Obama. This isn't too surprising -- picking a GOP Senator who won his last re-election with 83% of the vote will score with crossover voters. (BTW: This does not actually mean you should support Hagel, who is so insane on social issues that he votes against funding to reduce teen pregnancy with education and contraceptives.) And Edwards could actually steal an electoral vote or two under Nebraska's unusual district-based system.
How about when we look at McCain's Republican VP choices in their home states? Well, Edwards cleans up against Minnesota GOP governor Tim Pawlenty. While SurveyUSA has Obama beating McCain by 5 in Minnesota, Obama/Edwards beats McCain/Pawlenty by 7. Now consider that Pawlenty adds 10-13 points to McCain's total against any other Democratic VP, creating a 5-8 point McCain win. The Republican governor is strong in his home state, but the Carolina mill worker's son is even stronger.
Mitt Romney is strong in Michigan, where his father was governor. His presence on the ticket inflates McCain's 4-point lead to as much as 19! But against Edwards, that lead drops to 3.
I think there's upside even to these strong numbers. The economy is going into recession, and economic issues are even bigger than the war in most voters' minds. According to the latest polling, 88% of voters regard the economy as a 'Very Important' issue, more than anything else. (There's a 3-way tie at 78%, between education, jobs, and health care.)
We should have confidence in Barack Obama's foresight on Iraq to stand at the core of an appealing foreign policy message. Economic issues are among McCain's least-known vulnerabilities (take a look at his voting record on the minimum wage) and we need a VP who can swing the hammer of economic populism until he breaks. Nobody does that better than John Edwards.
—Neil Sinhababu 5:35 PM
Permalink
| Trackbacks
| Comments (56)
Too bad Edwards has already said he doesn't want the job.
Posted by: David Bailey on June 2, 2008 at 6:56 PM | PERMALINK
Trade is the one issue where Obama is very vunerable. Yes, I know that Democrats hate trade and stick their heads in the sand. (Why do we have a huge trade deficit with China? I thought NAFTA was the entire reason that jobs went to Mexico.)
Putting Edwards on the ticket would scare away a significant portion of the middle that Obama is attrating.
I will vote for Obama even if he puts the ghost of Nixon on the ticket. However, people who aren't yellow dogs, will look at Edwards and get scared by his absurd attacks on trade.
Posted by: neil wilson on June 2, 2008 at 6:56 PM | PERMALINK
I think Obama needs a VP with a lot of experience, particularly military experience, to balance the ticket. IMHO Jim Webb is his best choice.
Posted by: David on June 2, 2008 at 7:11 PM | PERMALINK
But what star trek character does Edwards represent?
Tuvoc/Tom Paris? I don't know.
Posted by: B on June 2, 2008 at 7:16 PM | PERMALINK
My money is on Charlie Crist for the R ticket.
I was for Webb all along until I read that Geier piece (back when she first posted it). She completely convinced me.
I agree with David except, of course, now I've been talked out of Webb. Obama's appealing foreign policy message is appealing to the choir. The R's will fall back on their mainstay national security and devote a lot of noise into scaring the bejesus out of the country. So...we need a credible attack dog on terrorism, and Edwards isn't it.
Posted by: Lucy on June 2, 2008 at 7:23 PM | PERMALINK
Don't forget Elizabeth!
Posted by: John McCain: More of the Same on June 2, 2008 at 7:29 PM | PERMALINK
BOB GRAHAM.
Former Senate Intelligence Committee Chair.
Against the war from the start.
2-term Governor (And a good one.)
Nice person, from what I've always heard.
Can be trusted to take over, god forbid.
Not crazy. (unless you count the notebooks, but really, is good record-keeping that crazy? Shoot-somebody-in-the-face-crazy?)
Can deliver Florida.
Posted by: Cazart on June 2, 2008 at 7:35 PM | PERMALINK
And in 2012, Edwards will still be 9 years younger than McCain is now!
Posted by: Jim G on June 2, 2008 at 7:36 PM | PERMALINK
The economy is not going into a recession. We are in for a period of slower than average growth, but not a recession.
Posted by: Brad on June 2, 2008 at 7:41 PM | PERMALINK
We need not recall that Edwards outpolled McCain hands down and performed better against McCain than Obama and Clinton. So we got the weakest candidate possible, and no VP will fix that. Good luck, fellow travellers.
Posted by: Carol on June 2, 2008 at 7:47 PM | PERMALINK
One problem -- maybe the only problem -- with Edwards is that he voted for the Iraq War, although unlike Clinton he admitted he made a mistake. Even so, Obama has hinted that such a vote would disqualify a running mate.
I like Feingold as the "dark horse" in this race. He'd be a very Gore-like choice, bolstering Obama's natural strengths. He's Goldilocks-experienced, the only guy who voted against the Patriot Act, and he happens to be Jewish. It'd also be great fun having him run against the McCain who co-sponsored the famous campaign finance legislation. McCaskill might be another good choice; she and Obama simply get along really well, she's an extremely effective surrogate, and Missouri is a great swing state. Sherrod Brown would be another possibility. Matt Stoller is talking up Wesley Clark for obvious Clintonian healing reasons, and so is Lawrence O'Donnell, but I don't see it. (I think the healing need is way exaggerated. This 2008 Democratic Party is hungry for victory and charged up.) Although Clark is hinting he'd be interested in the job.
Richardson would be an obviously strong choice, and people would be reminded he's a former Clinton cabinet official ("healing" again), ignoring recent Clinton ire. He'd also reinforce the "talking with enemies" success, and he could be quite helpful in the Hispanic community.
I really don't think the polling at this point means much since it's basically a test of name recognition.
Posted by: Timothy on June 2, 2008 at 7:47 PM | PERMALINK
This is all hype.
In the end, people just don't vote based on VP choice. They can only hurt, not help.
With that in mind, I do think it would be wise for Obama to pick someone that chuckleheaded racists fear a little bit less. Sadly, that probably means a macho white guy like Jim Webb.
Posted by: dal20402 on June 2, 2008 at 7:49 PM | PERMALINK
Hillary Clinton should run as an Independent Candidate for President, she may win.
Screw the sexist Dumbocraps who screwed her.
Posted by: ZombieNation on June 2, 2008 at 7:57 PM | PERMALINK
I think I saw results showing HRC doing as well as or better than Edwards as VP at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ - she's certainly stomping McCain in electoral polls.
Posted by: rilkefan on June 2, 2008 at 7:59 PM | PERMALINK
I have to admit I've gotten over my Webb fever. Clark's a good choice -- most of Webb's strengths. Maybe the need for "healing" is overhyped, but a little bit of it can't hurt.
Unless we learn Clark got an expensive haircut once. Then, all bets are off.
Posted by: thersites on June 2, 2008 at 8:00 PM | PERMALINK
Hey Neal, were you born this stupid, or did mommy drop you on your head?
Do you think her blog would always describe her as "Kathy G" if she wanted you to post her full name?
We're glad to know you slept with her, but I don't think that justifies this post of yours.
Posted by: Bad Moon Rising on June 2, 2008 at 8:06 PM | PERMALINK
ZombieNation - How many McCain points did you earn for that post? Do you have enough for the McCain bobblehead doll yet?
Posted by: NR on June 2, 2008 at 8:07 PM | PERMALINK
Jeebus, did I really say "Webb fever?"
Shoot me now.
Posted by: thersites on June 2, 2008 at 8:08 PM | PERMALINK
Go Red Wings!!
Posted by: on June 2, 2008 at 8:09 PM | PERMALINK
Isn't this mostly because of Edwards' high name recognition?
I don't think it's much more than that. If he's so insanely popular, why couldn't he win more votes?
Posted by: ethan salto on June 2, 2008 at 8:12 PM | PERMALINK
Go Red Wings!!
(Webb for VP)
Posted by: Detroit Dan on June 2, 2008 at 8:14 PM | PERMALINK
Feingold! Excellent!
Is he interested?
Posted by: Lucy on June 2, 2008 at 8:14 PM | PERMALINK
Too bad Edwards has already said he doesn't want the job.
They all say that until they're asked. Even Reagan avoided meeting with Ford in 1976 until he was promised he wouldn't be asked, because he really, really didn't want the job, but he knew he'd say yes if asked.
If I were Obama, I'd say to Edwards, "Look, we can win this thing together. Run hard, help me out here, make sure we don't have four more years of a GOP President. If Elizabeth's cancer gets worse, take all the time off you need - I'll understand, and so will the country. Give it at least a year, and if you have to quit after that, then that's what the 25th Amendment is for. But all the polls say maybe I can win this thing, but we definitely can. So let's do it."
Posted by: low-tech cyclist on June 2, 2008 at 8:16 PM | PERMALINK
NR
"ZombieNation - How many McCain points did you earn for that post? Do you have enough for the McCain bobblehead doll yet?"
Good luck to the Obama Dumbocraps on winning the general election with only half of their party vote.
Posted by: ZombieNation on June 2, 2008 at 8:16 PM | PERMALINK
Obama needs to get all these folks that might be selected for the VP slot to campaign (on the road) against the ReThugs between now and the convention, make it a real team effort, and then, at the convention, select the one that the public seems to respect the most.
Why hurry the pick ?
"The first lesson of democracy is not to hold the public in contempt." - Ronnie Earle
Posted by: daCascadian on June 2, 2008 at 8:23 PM | PERMALINK
Jeebus, did I really say "Webb fever?"
Shoot me now.
No way!
Posted by: Lucy on June 2, 2008 at 8:29 PM | PERMALINK
There was a day last year when a number of polls came out showing Edwards absolutely crushing everybody he might face in the general election (and by much bigger margins than the other Democrats). This caused some consternation at the time and spawned a number of creative theories.
Whatever the explanation for Edwards' polling strength against Republicans, you have to reconcile it his actual election record, which is less confidence inspiring.
Posted by: southpaw on June 2, 2008 at 9:04 PM | PERMALINK
Wouldn't Gomer Pyle be as good as Edwards? They both talk the same.
Posted by: Luther on June 2, 2008 at 9:28 PM | PERMALINK
people just don't vote based on VP choice. They can only hurt, not help.
BOB GRAHAM resembles a sensible, White everyman, whose age and southern background would help balance the cultural shock of Obama's race. Having Graham stumping for Obama might help convince many Americans Obama's race is not threatening and that Graham will have a mature influence on the younger president.
Mr. Sinhababu makes a good case for Edwards, though. Most of the under fifty W. Bush Republicans I know wanted Edwards to win the Democratic nomination. They share the same education level, professional success and ambitions as Edwards, which must be why they voiced their support for him. Maybe they could vote for Obama if Edwards was the running mate, but I doubt it.
Posted by: Brojo on June 2, 2008 at 9:33 PM | PERMALINK
Edwards didn't attract a single vote for Kerry, so despite these polls he'd dead weight.
Obama needs someone who's tough on security/foreign affairs, something Edwards repeatedly ignores.
Posted by: Owen on June 2, 2008 at 9:57 PM | PERMALINK
Please don't support Mark Warner for VP. We need him as the next senator for Virginia. If we lose him, we could end up with former Republican Governor Jim Gilmore as our next senator.
Posted by: on June 2, 2008 at 10:21 PM | PERMALINK
I have mixed feelings about Edwards as VP. I'd really like himas attorney general. As for choosing a senator, I think we need them in the senate. It might be the best strategy to choose someone like Clark (or another) who is a known quantity and can bring a sense of centrism to the ticket without attracting too much attention to himself.
Posted by: JohnK on June 2, 2008 at 10:37 PM | PERMALINK
I'd take Edwards in a heartbeat - in fact, I caucused for him before he dropped out of the race. I'm not sure he brings the most votes to an Obama ticket though. Jim Webb is the right choice.
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on June 2, 2008 at 10:54 PM | PERMALINK
If Sen. Obama wanted a running mate with a lot of fans within the Democratic Party that he could count on to be a disruptive force within his administration, he wouldn't need John Edwards. Hillary Clinton is better on both counts -- more fans, more disruptive -- and she'd poll better than Edwards, too.
Obama can defend against charges that he's inexperienced and hasn't done much in government, not so much because the charges are false (they're not) but rather because the incumbent Republican administration is so unpopular. He'd be pushing it, though, to pick a running mate who didn't do much in government either. Between getting rich and campaigning for higher office, John Edwards never had much time for the business of government. After the election he'll want a nice ambassadorship -- Paris, London, something like that -- that he can use as a credential for the Presidential race in 2016.
Posted by: Zathras on June 2, 2008 at 10:56 PM | PERMALINK
That Sebelius is even being considered is scary. Commander-in-Chief Sebelius? That's the ticket.
We should have confidence in Barack Obama's foresight on Iraq...
Please. Give it a rest. My 'foresight on Iraq' was every bit as good as his but, like him, I wasn't there getting bogus intel briefings that I could neither prove nor disprove.
I do know that when he finally got to DC after admitting he wasn't sure how he would have voted on the AMF, his votes have been to continue the funding for the war.
'Foresight' doesn't get you much these days I guess.
Posted by: steve-0 on June 2, 2008 at 11:02 PM | PERMALINK
I agree Edwards is the #1 choice. A friend of mine has a theory that they made a deal with each other back when Edwards was holding court in NC.
And he did time his endorsement to pour cold water on Hilary that one news cycle...
Posted by: on June 2, 2008 at 11:08 PM | PERMALINK
I agree Edwards is the #1 choice. A friend of mine has a theory that they made a deal with each other back when Edwards was holding court in NC.
And he did time his endorsement to pour cold water on Hilary that one news cycle...
Posted by: No Car, Too Expensive on June 2, 2008 at 11:08 PM | PERMALINK
I'd take Edwards as president over Obama in a second. But as VEEP candidate, forget it. Someone on the ticket has to be an attack dog. I think Obama has more talent for that than he is credited for but thanks to way he has defined himself, he can't exercise it. That means his second has got to be an attack dog so that someone who the press will quote can counterattack when Obama is accused of molesting underaged hamsters or whatever the lie of the day is.
You can have any other criteria you want, but whoever is picked as VEEP had better have both talent and demonstrated skill at being vicious, maybe even at being vile. The only reason Hillary does not qualify is that I doubt her ability to turn her full talents against McCain, especially when it is to protect Obama.
Posted by: Gar Lipow on June 2, 2008 at 11:21 PM | PERMALINK
You can start the healing by not using the words Vice president or ambassador or cabinet position or administration or white house staff coupled with the name of anyone from the Republican Party. I'm not voting for McCain because he's a Republican. When Obama reaches across the aisle he better be passing out search warrents and subpoenas. We're the Democrats, people. If somebody says Hagel one more time I'm picking up the gun. And forget the racists. They're never coming back. I'd rather lose than side with them.
Posted by: notgunnadoit on June 2, 2008 at 11:27 PM | PERMALINK
Not at all convincing. A ticket of two senators suffers because of the general antipathy toward Congress, two liberal Senators may be even worse. A governor might be OK.
Posted by: erewhon on June 2, 2008 at 11:52 PM | PERMALINK
You can have any other criteria you want, but whoever is picked as VEEP had better have both talent and demonstrated skill at being vicious, maybe even at being vile. The only reason Hillary does not qualify is that I doubt her ability to turn her full talents against McCain, especially when it is to protect Obama.
Dick Cheney is available.
:-)
Posted by: TiredOfTexas on June 2, 2008 at 11:55 PM | PERMALINK
I find the idea that Edwards will "be seen as too liberal" or that people "won't like 2 senators on a ticket" to be pretty funny. There's been the SUSA polling, and people are apparently fine with it. Apparently, the GOP was not successful in their attempts to negatively define Edwards. So even if you feel that's how people should feel, its not how they do feel.
Posted by: JoshA on June 3, 2008 at 3:21 AM | PERMALINK
Having Graham stumping for Obama might help convince many Americans Obama's race is not threatening and that Graham will have a mature influence on the younger president.
Obama needs someone who's tough on security/foreign affairs, something Edwards repeatedly ignores.
Using the veep choice to cover a weakness only accentuates the weakness, and emphasizes that the candidate himself believes he's weak there.
Maybe Bush could get away with that in 2000 by picking Cheney, but it won't work for a Dem.
Posted by: low-tech cyclist on June 3, 2008 at 5:37 AM | PERMALINK
First, let me say I will be supporting Barack Obama financially and with campaign work when he secures the nomination. However, in light of how this campaign has progressed (perhaps devolved is more accurate) I am more convinced than ever that Edwards should have been the presidential candidate. There is a reason he is helping Obama in many of these head-to-heads, and it isn't all name recognition. He helps Obama more in Pennsylvania than does Ed Rendell. Name recognition can't explain that one. I do agree, however, that Edwards will not be able to affect Obama's overall numbers that much one way or the other in a general election. John Kerry lost because of the circumstances of that particular campaign season, and because the top of the ticket was John Kerry, not because John Edwards was his running mate. No matter who the running mate is, the race will essentially hinge on Obama's ability to persuade those groups in the democratic fold who are less enthusiastic about his candidacy to "come home" (I hope the McGovern phraseology is only metaphorical, not predictive). It is probably not in John Edwards's self interest to run again as a Vice Presidential candidate, because if the ticket loses again he is permanently damaged goods. If he winds up accepting a call to be the running mate it will certainly demonstrate his commitment to do everything possible to secure a democratic victory. If, at the end of this process, Obama wins or loses to McCain (a prospect that seems much more possible now, in the wake of Father Pfleger) it will be because he either can recapture some of the enthusiasm that greeted the early stages of his campaign, or he can't. My own feeling is that his relative lack of experience, coupled with his growing negatives (most of which have been inflicted on him by his own church--or erstwhile church) make this a much harder election for the democrats than it needed to be. When Obama supporters read this, please realize that my assessment does not reflect bad feelings about Senator Obama himself, who, as I said, I plan to support in the forthcoming election campaign.
Posted by: edwardian on June 3, 2008 at 7:10 AM | PERMALINK
For campaign purposes, I like the idea the other person being a rabid attack dog. For that, Claire McCaskills the choice.
But I feel better if Clark were the V.P.
From the stand point of polling. It really doesn't matter.
Edwards was my guy. He being on the ticket would confirm to rightist that a vote for Obama is a vote for socialism. But at this point who cares. The economy is a big issue and working people would take comfort in Edwards presence. Unfortunately, Edwards hasn't won much of anything. And he failed to stand up to Cheney when he pulled a boald faced lie on him in the debates.
I like Schweitzer from Montana.
Actually, I trust Obama to have greater wisdom than any of us here. He's got more information and he can see far ahead much better than any of us. So I will really be interested in his choice.
But I agree with someone up thread as well. Edwards polled the best out of all the original Democratic candidates. He was the safest nominee and he was the first one thrown out.
Posted by: Timbo on June 3, 2008 at 7:26 AM | PERMALINK
These SurveyUSA polls should be regarded with more than a little bit of skepticism: in the matchups involving a McCain/Huckabee or McCain/Lieberman pairing, the poll results have the GOP ticket getting from 34% to 43% of the African American vote — against the first black Democratic Presidential nominee in history.
Posted by: bluestatedon on June 3, 2008 at 8:36 AM | PERMALINK
How can we know for sure that this is not a function of name recognition?
I love Edwards but together, aren't they just too pretty? Won't the media make fun of the Breck Girl and Big Smile guy? I love them both, but is it a problem that they are both young-ish and cute?
Posted by: lilybart on June 3, 2008 at 8:42 AM | PERMALINK
What I find most amusing is that we play the parlour game of "who will be VP?" the candidates are making deals without our astute input!
Posted by: lilybart on June 3, 2008 at 8:47 AM | PERMALINK
I don't think you did Evan Bayh in Indiana. Bayh won senate reelection by over 60% in 2004 when Bush won by 60%. Bayh out polled Bush. Bayh is a rock solid labor guy. In addition to Indiana, Bayh would have carry over into neighbor states of Ohio, Michigan and Kentucky because of his union support.
I think Feingold would be a good choice, too.
Posted by: bakho on June 3, 2008 at 9:18 AM | PERMALINK
Sebelius? Oh God no. She was a disaster rebutting the 08 SOTU address. And anyone suggesting a US Senator (like McCaskill) better figure our who's likely to take their seat, because winning the presidency and losing the Senate means we'll only get done 1/8 of what we want to accomplish.
Posted by: Big House on June 3, 2008 at 10:16 AM | PERMALINK
I'm pulling for Wes Clark because he can supply Obama with some military cred. Besides, I'd just love to see the chickenhawks try to impugn his honor. He'd be kicking some rightwing butt.
Posted by: azportsider on June 3, 2008 at 10:55 AM | PERMALINK
low-tech cyclist has it exactly right. A Democratic version of Cheney would kill the whole message. Our candidate doesn’t need some creepy old guy standing over his shoulder to keep him from doing something stupid. If he did, he wouldn’t be our candidate, he’d be theirs
Posted by: Jeff452 on June 3, 2008 at 3:18 PM | PERMALINK
I'm not ready to talk about who should be Obama's VP while Clinton is still in the race. I find this thread disrespectful and obnoxious.
Jeralyn, it's time to take your meds.
Posted by: ethan salto on June 3, 2008 at 4:29 PM | PERMALINK
I heard Edwards aides report he would love to be VP...perhaps he can bring focus to poverty issues from this perch. he certainly needs something else on his resume besides running for office, which has occupied him for about 8 yrs now.
Posted by: mary on June 3, 2008 at 11:30 PM | PERMALINK
Hello. To lengthen thy life, lessen thy meals. Help me! I can not find sites on the: Tyra banks wigs. I found only this - expensive lace front wigs. Report this by eyoung on am neutral you can check your local hair stores and see if you buy a wig from them, will they apply it. Home buy now qingdao remy hair beauty co. Thank :o Damalis from Republic.
Posted by: Damalis on August 17, 2009 at 6:37 PM | PERMALINK
Insurance companies http://insuranceinstates.com/georgia/Columbus/Powell%20&%20Tante/31901/
Insurance in the US.
Posted by: steesoftrodia on April 20, 2010 at 4:20 PM | PERMALINK