The y-axis should start at zero. Also, it would be nice to see data normalized by population, which should show a larger dropoff.

Next Chart of the Day should be bicycle sales...

For what is worth, my girlfriend and I are LDRing in the Northeast (New Haven to Boston) and Amtrak fares have risen faster than gas prices, so it now pays for her to drive when she comes to Boston (I still train it to New Haven).

Another Amtrak datapoint -- a colleague was planning a quick train trip down to NY to give a talk, and Amtrak was f-u-l-l. No seats available. She's not sure if it is fully subscribed or if there's been a temporary cut in trains because of track maintenance.

The IEA has also advised against decreasing fuel price. Thanks IEA =P

Suffice it to say that ExxonMobile testified earlier this month in Congress that absent the speculators, the price of a barrel of crude oil would be half what it is today. That would mean about $65 a barrel instead of $130 a barrel. -Nader

Meanwhile up here in the Norcal Bay Area, Caltrain is getting more on-board bike ridership than they ever have, and running out of room for bikes to board during peak commute times. Luckily they plan to deal with the situation using multi-media marketing campaigns to explain to people how many bike racks are available during the day.

Instead of, oh, I don't know. ADDING MORE BIKE CARS TO THE TRAINS.

Sheesh.

There has been a significant uptick in Canadian tourists in the northeastern states because of the weak dollar. Most drive here.

If what "history shows" is that there was an incredible increase in fuel prices just as the depression started and people went out and bought fuel efficient vehicles to get them through the hard times, then our secretary of treasury is spot on.

Sometimes what happened in the past will never happen again because something new has been added to the mix.

James, maybe your system needs more passenger cars, too. And the money to buy them. So then the administrator's job will suddenly become very important and they'll find a better one.

Wouldn't it be more pertinent to show annual miles versus the average annual price (or, even better- average by month) instead of miles versus time? That way we could get an idea of what the gasoline demand curve looks like...

Also, per-capita miles rather than total vehicle miles would give us a better idea of what's going on - how much of that increase is due to population increase?

cheers-

I'm wondering how they get the miles-driven estimates. Seems they might need to know whether people are switching to motorcycles & small cars, etc.

I ride the bus, and it was noticeably more crowded for a couple of weeks, but now is back to normal. $5/gal gas is still cheap. At $10/gal, Americans will change their habits.

It should be noted that the population is literally exploding, so it hardly is significant that Americans drive less when we have millions and millions of jackpot babies and immigrants coming along.

Actually, the graph shows miles starting to level off two years ago, so it may be as much a matter of the lousy economy as the recent spike in gas prices.

The freeway traffic didn't seem off by 1.5% tonight, I can tell you that.

This curve is very linear for the years before 2005. If you consider the current miles/yr compared to the miles/yr from extrapolating the linear curve to 2008, the reduction is 180 billion miles/year, over 5%. Pretty good considering it was going up at a rate of 60 billion per year.

Note that Metrolink in LA is doing their level best to decrease ridership by establishing unconstitutional security searches.

Pull quote: "It's more in response to what has become standard procedure at other commuter rail agencies across the country. [. . .] We were one of the few who wasn't doing this, and we thought it would be a good idea to step up the security a little bit.

In other words, all the cool kids are doing it and we don't want to be left out. As the article says, there have been no threats made against the trains.

Keep that up and I'm back in my car. At least I don't get frisked when I drive myself. Yet.

Joe Buck, very intelligent comment. I'd like to see this normalized by population, and a longer trend analysis that at least encompasses a previous slowing/decline.

"She said past trends have shown Americans will continue to drive despite high gas prices"

A large number of Americans have absolutely no choice. We have built a car-based culture over decades; that isn't going to change over night. The pain will vastly increase, but the fundamentals will be slow to alter. It's a lot easier to change your vehicle than it is to rid yourself of reliance on a vehicle.

Yeah seconding frustratedbostonian above on car travel in the NE being up because of transportation costs rising for non-car options: I am looking at driving for a whole series of family trips from upstate NY to the coast of NE this Summer/Fall/Winter where I might have flown, because of airfares essentially doubling: where it once might cost $700 for three tickets from Syracuse to Portland via NY it now would cost $1,100 ... whereas gas for the r/t has maybe gone from $80 to $160 ...

Would be interesting to know how to calculate the tradeoff of the jet fuel burned vs the gas in terms of carbon footprint etc ... suppose I should go google that ...

A large number of Americans have absolutely no choice. We have built a car-based culture over decades; that isn't going to change over night.

Yep. Faced with the stark reality of the inevitable, Americans will consider thinking about maybe changing their habits. It's been clear for decades that the current model is unsustainable. That hasn't stopped most people from continuing on with the same-old same-old.

Remember when people got all worried about gas prices and started buying more fuel-efficient cars? No, no, I don't mean this last time, or even the time before that. I mean the time before that. Now if you'll excuse me, there's something on television that I absolutely must watch. And then I need to text a friend about it. TTFN!

A large number of Americans have absolutely no choice. We have built a car-based culture over decades; that isn't going to change over night.

What about running across the countryside in a cloak w/ your friends, like in LOTR?

the Northeast, where travel increased 1.4%.

Maybe in the Northeast people are staying closer to home for vacations more than people are in other regions. Or perhaps in other regions people are giving up the vacations completely, while Northeasterners are heading for the Northeastern shores instead of taking planes places or driving for vacations to other parts of the country. Whatever explains the regional variation, maybe there is an even more precise variation within the Northeast according to the socioeconomics of towns / neighborhoods- I for one thought there was a noticeable decline in traffic in my area over the past 6 months or so (I live in the Northeast).

As one who has converted to 99% bike riding for all my transport needs, because I could, because I live in a well-designed city (Portland, OR), I have one thing to say to you who still drive:

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Why is Kevin cheering that Americans are poorer so are driving less? In any case, even if he hates car drivers (excepting himself of course), he should not be looking at miles driven but car emissions per capita.

Like peejay, I cycle to work (being fortunate enough to live close enough). Unlike peejay, I don't think the price of oil is a laughing matter.

Even if all cars were electric and all electricity was generated by solar/wind power one has the feeling that the car haters of the world would still not be satisfied.

I love my purple-blue Integra, and I love it more when no one else is on the road so I can drive it the way it wants to go. Very, very fast.

Perhaps this is a European attitude.

Why is Kevin cheering that Americans are poorer so are driving less? ... Like peejay, I cycle to work (being fortunate enough to live close enough).

Are you saying that you are too poor to drive? Or are you saying that you, along with many other Americans, are rethinking their transportation decisions? My income can support driving, and I could probably also afford a drug habit, too. However, I know that my money would be better spent, elsewhere and make better decisions accordingly, not because I am "too poor."

the car haters of the world would still not be satisfied.

I hate cars.

I think the Northeast you are seeing some substitution of pleasure driving for airlines. Elsewhere, people are discovery public transportation to get to work. Most NE cities already have significant ridership, and thus you may see only a marginal increase because of the gas spike.

But, because NE cities are closer, driving to Boston from NYC is actually reasonable as compared to say driving from LA to San Francisco. As between spending money a little more on gas or dealing with hundreds of dollars of luggage fees, most people will take the former, even if it means 4 hours of "are we there yet?"

When Americans have appropriately thinned the fleet of SUVs on the road, then the miles traveled will begin to ascend once more.

There are real economic constraints to $10.00 gallon gasoline. At that price, energy would be ~15% of world GNP, and there's no reason to drive your car to stand in the breadline.

Great graph Kevin.

By the way, I keep hearing arguments that we're poorer if we're not driving as many miles. No, maybe we're richer if our cars last longer and we're putting off global warming just a tiny bit later. Maybe we're more efficient if we make two trips to the store per week instead of five. It's a matter of perspective isn't it? Less driving for many just might mean more time with the family.

We may have no choice if we do nothing. In the Western, MA region, we are organizing to help our leaders understand that we don't just want commuter rail service--we NEED it. www.SpringfieldRail.org

www.washingtonmonthly.com rocks! I found a lot of new information on www.washingtonmonthly.com and I liked it a lot. Good job! I will be back.

www.washingtonmonthly.com rocks! I found a lot of new information on www.washingtonmonthly.com and I liked it a lot. Good job! I will be back.