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June 25, 2008

AL KIBAR UPDATE....The latest — report? speculation? gossip? let's go with gossip, shall we? — the latest gossip about that Syrian nuclear facility that the Israelis bombed last year is that it was actually a joint Syrian-Iranian operation:

[An] Israeli adviser told the Guardian: "The Iranians were involved in the Syrian programme. The idea was that the Syrians produce plutonium and the Iranians get their share. Syria had no reprocessing facility for the spent fuel. It's not deduction alone that brings almost everyone to think that the link exists."

On Monday the German magazine Der Spiegel quoted "intelligence reports" as making similar claims. A Syrian government spokesman dismissed them as "nonsense". But Der Spiegel said that the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, was considering withdrawing support for the Iranian nuclear programme.

Is this true? Or just part of the ongoing campaign from Israel to soften up world opinion for an airstrike against Iran's nuclear facilities? Who knows. But David Ignatius claims that the peace talks between Israel and Syria are quite serious, and that the destruction of the Al Kibar facility actually helped things along:

(5) What about Syria's secret nuclear reactor, which was destroyed by the Israelis on Sept. 6, 2007?

Oddly enough, that attack on what CIA analysts called the "Enigma Building" may have helped the peace talks. The Israelis felt that their decisive action helped restore the credibility of their deterrence policy. The Syrians appreciated that Israeli and American silence allowed them time to cover their tracks. Finally, the fact that Assad kept the nuclear effort a secret, and that he managed the post-attack pressures, showed Israelis that he was truly master of his own house, and thus a plausible negotiating partner.

This stuff is above my pay grade. I really can't judge how much truth there is to it. But I thought I'd pass it along for those who are interested in the latest Middle East gossip.

Kevin Drum 1:58 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (18)
 
Comments

Which some of us, including myself, very much are. I haven't seen this. Thanks for keeping it fresh.

Posted by: Steve W. on June 25, 2008 at 2:01 AM | PERMALINK

The sooner we wean ourselves from oil (or it runs out), the sooner we can leave the Middle East and let them make peace or blow themselves up. Good riddance.

Posted by: Light at End of Tunnel on June 25, 2008 at 2:38 AM | PERMALINK

Ignatius thinks the whole world swoons before tough-guy foreign policy. I'd take this with a huge grain of salt.

Posted by: gyrfalcon on June 25, 2008 at 3:11 AM | PERMALINK

So the Iranians who have vast swathes of desert at the extreme edge of the range of Israeli warplanes build a "nuclear reactor" just down the road from Israel. Give me a frigging break, there is as much truth to this as all the other Cheney-sourced claims about a Syrian/North Korean/Iranian/Klingon "nuclear reactor" in Syria.

Posted by: blowback on June 25, 2008 at 5:42 AM | PERMALINK

I don't understand what Iglesias means by "deterrence policy." Is he saying that the Israelis used conventional weapons (in an air strike) to shore up their nuclear deterrent? That would be ironic. I thought nuclear weapons were scary enough to be the source of deterrence. Or perhaps he means by "deterrence policy" something like "the right to dictate that no one else in the region get nuclear weapons." Which would actually echo US policy to some extent. In any case, using that way has little to do with people being frightened of nuclear attack.

Posted by: Ward on June 25, 2008 at 6:24 AM | PERMALINK

Pretty safe to work on the assumption that there's no truth whatever to it.

Posted by: SqueakyRat on June 25, 2008 at 6:47 AM | PERMALINK

I wish these "reality" shows weren't so obviously scripted and the audience was a little more discerning.

Posted by: B on June 25, 2008 at 8:21 AM | PERMALINK

Sorry, but why would we believe anything Ignatius has to say on this? Hell, he doesn't even bother to source it anonymously, so it could very well, indeed probably is, just his fantasy. I find the idea that Israel didn't know if Assad was a "plausible negotiating partner" to be fairly implausible, absent something more than Ignatius' fevered imagination to go on.

Posted by: Glenn on June 25, 2008 at 9:11 AM | PERMALINK

What's up with Britney?

Posted by: B on June 25, 2008 at 9:12 AM | PERMALINK

I think the jury is still out on this as the UN has yet to inspect the alleged nuclear facility yet. Otherwise, it's just unsubstantiated Israeli intelligence. The whole effort may have been nothing but a lame attempt by Israel to salve its thoroughly bruised ego after fighting the jumped-up Hezbollah militias to a stalemate. Nothing but face saving.

Unless Iran or Syrian desire to be completely obliterated by Israeli's substantial nukular arsenal, building a few bombs is merely a way to keep regimes hostile to them at bay. They aren't going to launch any first strikes. How long has N. Korea had their bombs, 2-3 years? Seoul's still chugging along last I heard.

Posted by: Jeff II on June 25, 2008 at 10:25 AM | PERMALINK

Oddly enough, that attack on what CIA analysts called the "Enigma Building" may have helped the peace talks.

Yippee! Then why not bomb enough stuff to guarantee peace, you know? A permanent peace.

Posted by: scudbucket on June 25, 2008 at 10:37 AM | PERMALINK

I don't know more than Kevin Drum does. However, it seems pretty clear that 1. a nuclear program made little sense for a small country like Syria, acting on its own, 2. both Israel and the United States have good reasons for wanting to separate Syria and Iran, 3. Israel has in addition a pressing need to keep its many enemies in the region from uniting against it and 4. the fact that Damascus no longer has an army in Lebanon looking over Hezbollah's shoulder could well mean that Nasrallah's organization is starting to look less like their client and more like Tehran's to the Syrians.

So there may be nothing to this, but it would be foolish not to explore possibilities.

Posted by: Zathras on June 25, 2008 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK

Interesting rumor. I would not find it odd if the attack on the "Enigma Building" helped the peace talks. Most conflict-ending treaties have been signed after one side defeated the other or when they demonstrated the power to do so. Treaties are often about self-preservation, rather than friendship.

For example, the US and USSR didn't sign a series of treaties because we liked each other. Rather, it was because each realized that the other country could destroy them.

Posted by: David on June 25, 2008 at 11:19 AM | PERMALINK

This fits right in with the news I read yesterday that Israel is begging the US to take out Iran's nuclear sites before a new administration takes office. Anybody else see that news? I've forgotten the source.

Posted by: nepeta on June 25, 2008 at 11:32 AM | PERMALINK

Here's the source:

CBS News: Israel Prodding US To Attack Iran

Posted by: nepeta on June 25, 2008 at 11:38 AM | PERMALINK

The WMD's were spirited off to Syria, weren't they? And Saddam was hiding in Jordan! And foreign fighters were streaming in from Iran, Syria and Jordan combined! Foreign fighters, al Qaeda in Iraq! I heard about it on TV!

You don't need government control of the media, apparently, to accomplish almost perfect saturation of the "information space"... Just have an anonymous military, government, or intelligence source assert something to their media contact, and the schmuck will eagerly print it up on the front page of the NYT, Washington Post or LA Times.

There won't even be any caveats attached, such as, "this information was not independently corroborated"... Neither will reporters do any investigation to see if additional sources can confirm the story.

As consumers, we can just say, "thanks for the stovepipe, government and journalists!"

Posted by: flubber on June 25, 2008 at 12:25 PM | PERMALINK

Here's the source: CBS News: Israel Prodding US To Attack Iran Posted by: nepeta

I'm so tired of Israel. Nothing but a millstone around our neck with regard to foreign policy in the ME.

Posted by: Jeff II on June 25, 2008 at 12:29 PM | PERMALINK

Shorter "ex-liberal": War is peace!

And, of course, "Ignorance is strength".

Posted by: Gregory on June 25, 2008 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK
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