I basically agree with you, Kevin. We're still 5 months out from the election - trying to control the day-to-day narrative is a shell game, especially if you're going to try to do it for half a year. I far prefer organization-building, something McCain doesn't seem remotely interested in.

This also reflects on which one would make a better president, don't you think?

I think it's hasty to conclude that McCain "is actually doing a much better job of shaping the agenda to his advantage".

McCain has *tried* to portray himself as a fighting underdog focused on real-world issues, but that doesn't mean he has succeeded. My sense is that it hasn't. Conceding that his signature plan -- offshore drilling! -- will have only a psychological impact seems likely to make a joke of his energy "plan." (And no, talking about speculation in the commodities markets won't help him, with Phil Gramm hanging around his neck.)

How can he be "unifying his base" by flip flopping on the FISA Sellout?

Some of her points are debatable, but a few things are spot on:

1. When Obama declined to take public financing for the general election, the virtually complete failure of the campaign to highlight McCain's (almost certainly illegal) gamesmanship with primary public financing is inexplicable. And breathtakingly stupid.

2. Obama's FISA reversal may well come back to haunt him. While he may make Joe Klein and David Broder happy in the pants, he has, at minimum, lost significant enthusiasm and contributions from liberals while gaiing few votes (those who really like the FISA bill ain't voting Democratic). As for inocculating himself from wingnuts attacks on patriotism, weakness on terrorism, etc., well, ask Max Cleland (among many others) how well that worked out for them. There is no series of events, actions, or votes that will prevent Republican character assassination on these issues. Frankly, that's about all they really have.

3. The overweening arrogance and hubris of the Obama campaign is, as it has been from the start, insufferable. And likely responsible for 1 and 2 above.

How can he be "unifying his base" by flip flopping on the FISA Sellout?

We are not his base, barry. And even if we were, it's not as if we have anyplace else to go.

Kevin quotes: "McCain is actually doing a much better job of shaping the agenda to his advantage."

McCain has America's corporate-owned mass media on his side, using all of their considerable power to shape the agenda to his advantage, in order to further their agenda, namely deregulation of media ownership to allow a handful of giant right-wing corporations to gobble up more and more of America's newspapers, networks, TV and radio stations, along with huge permanent tax cuts for America's Ultra-Rich Ruling Class, Inc.

Obama, on the other hand, has America's corporate-owned mass media working overtime to reinforce every hateful stereotype of him that the RNC can come up with.

I think Skopol is pretty much on the mark. The fact that they Fisa capitulation was really boneheaded. It wasn't even an issue until the House Democrats made that deal. I also don't understand their timing of getting out of public financing. He should have done that after the DNC had filed the lawsuit as a justification to get out of it. They are getting too arrogant.

I'm worried too. McCain seems to be getting good coverage and soundbites, and Obama doesn't. The FISA vote is a huge mistake, in my opinion. He loses when he looks like he is doing things like this for political gain. I am not at all sure that Obama can win this in November. In the end more people might feel safer with an old white guy who has been around for years, and is making some more or less moderate statements on the environment, etc.

The sad fact is, Obama will have to walk on water, and McCain only has to be able to stand up.

The media wants at least the appearance of a close horserace, and will do or say anything necessary to get one. At this point, any effort Obama might engage in to bolster his numbers will just increase the speed of the wind being blown in his face. (On the other hand, the FISA fiasco was a major and unnecessary mistake. It may not have cost him much in the long run, but it will gain him nothing. In exchange, his reputation will forever carry a small mark of shame. For me, I have now gone from enthusiastically voting for Obama to enthusiastically voting against McCain.)

I will re-edit my sub-literate comment.

I think Skopol is pretty much on the mark. The fact that the Dems capitulated on FISA was really boneheaded when it wasn't even an issue makes it even moreso. I also don't understand their timing of getting out of public financing. He should have done that after the DNC had filed the lawsuit against McCain as a justification to get out of it. They are getting too arrogant.

pat wrote: "I'm worried too. McCain seems to be getting good coverage and soundbites, and Obama doesn't."

What worries me is that Obama supporters seem surprised by this.

It suggests that they have learned nothing from the corporate-owned mass media's goring of Al Gore in 2000 and swiftboating of John Kerry in 2004.

What did you expect? That the giant media corporations who stand to benefit enormously from McCain's continuation of CheneyBush policies would offer the American public impartial, even-handed coverage of Obama and McCain?

Yeah, great point, Kevin. I think now is the time for Obama to make unpopular decisions, like flip-flopping and reneging on his FISA promise. Once he gets this out of the way, he can start making other promises to break just as soon as he is elected.

Wake up ye dupes of ignorance, Obama can`t win the election w/o supporting the FISA cave.

The Obamaites are simply laying the foundation of their general election campaign so things will fall into place as the ReThugs start to unveil their monthly (September, October etc) "surprises".

Sit back, relax and watch the masters do their work.

"There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things." - Niccoló Machiavelli

Once again we are running not against the Republican, but the media.

so so sick of this

The sad fact is, Obama will have to walk on water, and McCain only has to be able to stand up"

My point exactly.
Our challenger is the media.

I maintain Obama's FISA roll-over is all about party unity: he's going along with the leadership of the Dem caucus in hopes of avoiding a big brawl within the party right now, or of finding himself the standard-bearer for a fight in the Congress that would keep him off the campaign trail. I don't like the way he's handling it, but the assessment that such a brawl right now would hurt him and party seems to me to be right.

I think maybe he should have taken this as an opportunity to resign from the Senate. He could have said, "I respect the views of the leadership, and understand they're trying to not only strike a balance (between constitutional liberties and the need to investigate and pursue threats from terrorists) but also thread a needle (between filibuster threats from both sides of the aisle and a veto threat from the White House). There are some valuable things in this bill, in addition to the provisions that i strongly object to, and i know their intentions are good in trying to get this signed into law now, rather than letting a cloud of legal uncertainty hang over our intelligence gathering activities for months unitl a new president & Congress can negotiate a better law next year.

"i disagree with that calculation. This may be the best bill we can get right now; but it's not good enough, and i'm confident that we can get a much better bill passed quickly if i'm the president of the united states. I'll make a commitment right now that if this bill fails to become law, i'll submit a better FISA reauthorization bill to the Congress on my first day in office; and if it does become law, on my first day in office i'll sign an executive order directing our intelligence agencies to observe a more stringent set of privacy protections than this law allows.

"I think that a member of the Senate who feels as i do is compelled to vote against this bill, and to join in any filibuster against it. But as the presumptive nominee of my party, i have obligations, as well, and although i disagree - respectfully, but strongly - with my party's Congressional leaders, i will not be part of a floor fight that divides the party at a time when we must be united to stop the Bush Administration and its allies from inflicting even further damage on our nation. This issue is just one example of the conflict between my two roles as Sentaor and part standard-bearer, and it leads me to a conclusion that i had hoped to avoid: that i can not do justice to both roles at the same time. Therefore, i will lobby against this bill, but will not join a filibuster against the party leadership; and i will resign my seat in the Senate effective as soon as the Governor of Illinois can select a temporary replacement."

A big part of Obama's success will be under the radar of the national media by his tremendous field organization. He won't need to control the narrative of the media (thought it's advantageous to do so) because his organizers are making personal contact with voters to get them to pledge to vote for Obama.

And that personal pledge will stop people from being swayed by TV ads.

If you want him to win, talk to some of your neighbors about him, positively.

The pandering journalists are going to do their very best to craft a reason for John McCain to improve. They will call his craven public relations campaign of "off-shore" drilling "strong symbols" without bothering to note that even the government's Energy Information Agency confirms that offshore drilling will do very little to affect gas prices, because it takes at least 5 years to get operations up and running.

The media will not provide facts or explain facts to the people. The media is just the conduit of the elite public relations campaigns that soften the minds of the public with word-bombs and spin. Accordingly,

Abetted by the media's proclivity for dramatic gestures and horse race analysis, the McCain camp has done what it needs to portray their man as a fighting underdog focused on real-world issues. Meanwhile, Obama's "economic tour" has gone little noticed — and his campaign seems not to understand how very difficult it will be to get the media to convey the economic stakes in this election to ordinary voters.

Surprise, surprise, the corporate media will not edify or inform, and will only confuse and help obfuscate the issues. But that doesn't mean anything, because guess what, the American people know this. The media will not have the same effect this time around. In 2000 the media dismantled Al Gore and promoted GW Bush. They will not be able to do so in 2008, because the internet has completely redefined how news is disseminated and understood. 30% of the nation is still manipulated, but the other 70% is not.

The polling data only models the affect on people who watch television, because the 1500 people who are called have land-line phones, are home when the phone rings, and willingly participate. This leaves a lot of people off the map. It's a self-reinforcing phenomenon. The media pumps out the rhetoric and then tests the results with these biased polls.

And even these polls are registering 70% are disgusted.

Remember what happened in 2006. They got their butts handed to them, and they didn't see it coming, because they are using inadequate means of measuring the actual viewpoints of the Amercian people.

The neutered media mouth-pieces will still try to craft public opinion, because that's all they know how to do but hopefully you are smart enough to realize what I'm saying here Kevin. American's are ignoring the media box this time.

The pandering journalists are going to do their very best to craft a reason for John McCain to improve. They will call his craven public relations campaign of "off-shore" drilling "strong symbols" without bothering to note that even the government's Energy Information Agency confirms that offshore drilling will do very little to affect gas prices, because it takes at least 5 years to get operations up and running.

The media will not provide facts or explain facts to the people. The media is just the conduit of the elite public relations campaigns that soften the minds of the public with word-bombs and spin. Accordingly,

Abetted by the media's proclivity for dramatic gestures and horse race analysis, the McCain camp has done what it needs to portray their man as a fighting underdog focused on real-world issues. Meanwhile, Obama's "economic tour" has gone little noticed — and his campaign seems not to understand how very difficult it will be to get the media to convey the economic stakes in this election to ordinary voters.

Surprise, surprise, the corporate media will not edify or inform, and will only confuse and help obfuscate the issues. But that doesn't mean anything, because guess what, the American people know this. The media will not have the same effect this time around. In 2000 the media dismantled Al Gore and promoted GW Bush. They will not be able to do so in 2008, because the internet has completely redefined how news is disseminated and understood. 30% of the nation is still manipulated, but the other 70% is not.

The polling data only models the affect on people who watch television, because the 1500 people who are called have land-line phones, are home when the phone rings, and willingly participate. This leaves a lot of people off the map. It's a self-reinforcing phenomenon. The media pumps out the rhetoric and then tests the results with these biased polls.

And even these polls are registering 70% are disgusted.

Remember what happened in 2006. They got their butts handed to them, and they didn't see it coming, because they are using inadequate means of measuring the actual viewpoints of the Amercian people.

The neutered media mouth-pieces will still try to craft public opinion, because that's all they know how to do but hopefully you are smart enough to realize what I'm saying here Kevin. American's are ignoring the media box this time.

McCain's got his own credibility issues about campaign finance promises, and Kevin needs to cover that (I did see a thread on Atrios.) Check out the self-descriptive link to Politico below, and many of you should have gotten email from Dean about it:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0608/Plouffe_McCain_spending_unlawfully.html

For God's sake it's summer. Nobody is paying attention whose mind isnt made up already . What matters now is organization and money. This obsession with winning every day's headlines is exactly what doomed Clinton's campaign.

Big Picture: McCain has no organization on the ground.

Here's another thing that will hurt McCain: You can find on Youtube, Various Republican candidates were asked, "PC or Mac?" We got "PC" from most (heh, Romney flipped by saying PC and then he'd switch!) They all picked something But McCain said, he let his wife (the drug-stealer) handle that; i.e. he was computer illiterate! Guys, gals, we've got to make this an issue! Lots of people think it would be hard for him to deal with a technological nation and administrative duties! This isn't just "age" in the silly sense, this is basic competency.

It suggests that they have learned nothing from the corporate-owned mass media's goring of Al Gore in 2000 and swiftboating of John Kerry in 2004.

Well SA, even if we have learned, what exactly does one do? I have read a multitude of your posts that identify the obvious culpability of the MSM, and I find that I mostly agree, and simultaneously, get seriously depressed.

The blame for the brainwash with the MSM and the sheeple are very much chicken and egg to me. Of course I want the MSM to have a shred (1/2 a shred, a 1/4 even?) of integrity, but how about the sheeple? What baby steps can those of us that see through the propaganda take to begin to minimize the iron-grip the MSM has on those that cannot?

I hear people keep saying that McCain doesn't have organization but how do you know? It could be that they are poor-mouthing. The Republicans kicked our butts last time with voter turnout so please do not underestimate the Republicans when it comes to this.

Do not know how it will play out in the general, but I voted for Obama in the primary with some trepidation and was prepared to do the same in the general and likely would have contributed a few bucks until he came out with that God awful social security proposal. Not only was it wrong headed on social security, it betrayed the sort of dishonest and cynical approach to politics that has been the hallmark of Republicans since Nixon. And before anyone suggests "good we are finally playing the game the way the GOP does" that is akin to saying it is okay to torture because you know the terrorists will. Sorry, I do not buy those kind of sick rationales and I will not be supporting Obama in the general. He is a fraud.

obama is just another lying liar - anointed by the MSM as our next president, he doesn't stand behind anything he says.

He is just more of the same with different lies.

To the post at 5:31p...

I might take you seriously if you bothered to sign your name (with valid email address).

Posted by Terry at 4:11 pm

that God awful social security proposal. Not only was it wrong headed on social security, it betrayed the sort of dishonest and cynical approach to politics that has been the hallmark of Republicans since Nixon. And before anyone suggests "good we are finally playing the game the way the GOP does"

Oh you mean the sensible proposal to up the taxable limit from the first $92,000 of income to maybe $120,000? How is this "god awful" ? And more to the point, how is it the "sort of dishonest and cynical approach to politics" of which of seem to resort to yourself?

Terry, you are the only one who is saying "we are finally playing the game the way the GOP does"?

Sorry, but everything you say doesn't make any sense at all.

Said by Micheline at 3:18 Pm

The Republicans kicked our butts last time with voter turnout so please do not underestimate the Republicans when it comes to this.

The Republicans did what? In 2006 the Voter turnout was so large, that not a single Democratic candidate lost a state or Federal election.

In the 2008 primaries the Democratic turnout dwarfed the Republican turnout by 3 to 1.

No one is underestimating anything. What are you talking about?

Ouch. I accidentally read a bad mhr post before it was deleted. Who are these dead-enders on here? Eck.

The media wants a horse race. The awful failures of the Bush Administration, and McFlame's endorsement of the dunderhead, should be enough to even overcome Diebold. Make no mistake though; the GOP would like to make it seem the race is much closer than it really ever is. That kind of propaganda makes elections theft-vulnerable.

ginardo,

I meant 2004.

again - it's amazing how blogs just ignore any idea of moderation and objectivity. McCain is the perfect candidate for the country right now - a realist, a guy willing and proven to work across party lines, lots of relevant experience, broad appeal - and yet you fucking morons [Kevin] act as if the only choice is Obama. It calls to mind that a year or two ago Stewart used to have McCain on the Daily Show regularily and talk about him as if he was the guy fix this mess - and now McCain is just some old guy. It's bullshit - you people are sickeningly infatuated with Obama, it's disgusting, really.

Overman, that weak troll stuff isn't going to work.

McCain has spent the last 8 years worshipping at the alter of Bush, I don't know where you get this "reach across the aisle" garbage.

The Repubs have been lock step in line with Bush for 8 years, relinquishing the Dems to obscurity for the 1st 6, obstructing the hell out of the legislative process to protect his worthless butt for the last 2, and your bud Johnny has been right there within them, 95% of the time.

Like Bush? Love McCain!

McCain's "momentum" doesn't seem to be showing up in the polling. TIME has a poll out today showing him in the 30s. That's three polls that have come out in the last few days with him in the 30s. He's going backwards. Skopol's article is the kind of thing that is supposed to pass as deep thinking in the punditocracy.

"The Republicans did what? In 2006 the Voter turnout was so large, that not a single Democratic candidate lost a state or Federal election."

While the overall thrust of your statement is true, Harold Ford lost his campaign for Senator of Tennessee. Other than that, the Dems swept.