What a great victory for Bush! Years of unfettered nuke development. Ah, yeah, that's the ticket!

Here's a question that I'm sure is one a lot of people are asking/have thought about: was this a success for a good cop/bad cop approach? Or was it really Chris Hill being allowed to do the (what I think is) smart thing and pursue hard-nosed diplomacy?

Friday SCATblogging — a forewarned grizzly attack.

Scat when you see fresh grizzly scat — if you notice it.

With the "good cop/bad cop" approach, as you suggest, North Korea tested a nuclear device. How could this approach be seen as a success? It was a foreign policy disaster! I suggest that we simply dodged a bullet in Nov 2006, and cooler heads took over the process afterwards.

Played out an alternate scenario with my students.

Kim learns, the hard way, that nuclear weapons production is tricky. His program is a bust. He's feeing the beast with scare funds and the regular army is getting restive, since it's used to being fed first.

The only thing he's got going for him is fear and leverage.

So he "agrees" to do in the program in exchange for a basket of concessions, appearing statesman-like and saving face while leaving open the redirection of scarce resources to other, more reliable forms of military power.

Crazy? Or is he that sophisticated?

I saw some coprolite once and I was petrified Thers!

I mean i was petrified, Socratic

[dunno why I put Thers theres. So? Impeach me.]

President Obama will have to do some sort of trade for the remaining N. Korean nukes. The trade will cost the U.S. taxpayer a bundle, and will also cost Obama politically because the GOP will turn it into one of their asinine talking points about "unconditionally negotiating" or something, even though it's simply Obama cleaning up one of Dubya's messes. Just another piece of the huge bill the country will have to pay for having allowed the Bush gang to steal the presidency in 2000.

ProfBurgos,
Exactly what I was thinking.

The watertower was blown up only after they moved into their new underground facilities. This ain't momentous.

"Largely irreversible"? Didn't the New York Times story say that it was cosmetic, that the tower was not a significant part of the program, that it could be easily replaced, and that the key parts of the facilities were "disabled" but not "destroyed"?

Kevin Drum >"...obviously even a poorly-designed nuclear bomb isn't something you want going off in your backyard, but a low-yielding nuke too heavy to deliver via ICBM isn't really all that great a deterrent...."

I`ve never been really convinced that is actually what they were attempting. It is possible that the missle firing etc was all a misdirection (Asian history is full of these types of moves) and they really wanted to develop a very small device that would be (almost) impossible to detect & they succeeded. This scenario could fit nicely with what we know (at least what is in the public record) of their other behaviors re Pakistan etc.

I hope I`m wrong.

“What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know, it's what we know for sure that just ain't so.� - Mark Twain

Of course, we don't know if Kim's decision was affected by the fact he now has a nuclear arsenal.

Undoubtedly. Kim got an agreement to terminate a program that had no significant utility other than as a bargaining chip. Moreover, he got an agreement without having to reveal much about what he still has. That leaves him with a lot to bargain with, even if it's only uncertainty about what he still has. There's a lot more work, a lot more negotiating, and a lot more aggravation, in store for the next administration.

I agree with troglodyte - the good cop/bad cop approach was a disaster. I was wondering if this would be the conservative justification for their irresponsible behavior.

The problem is not good/bad cops.
The problem is squabbling/incompetent cops.

This is really amusing - North Korea will now have a perfect record off snookering every US President since Nixon. They probably outfoxed him and others too, but I just wasn't paying attention.

captcrisis -- Yes, "irreversible" is probably a bit strong. However, the key words are "in a matter of days". Unlike in 2003, it would require more time and visible activity before they could restart plutonium production.

Which of course may be irrelevant if they feel they already have enough material to serve their purposes (estimates 35-50Kg plutonium or 5-10 nukes), which I'd guess is the case, otherwise they would have delayed further.

I dunno. Hasn't David Blaine been working on that hunger thing? was that a prep for moving to N Korea and disappearing that water tower? Prove me wrong!

optical weenie is on to something. We should be terrified that North Korea has leapfrogged us in nuclear technology, inventing a way to reprocess plutonium without dumping waste heat into the atmosphere!

Grumpy: We should be terrified that North Korea has leapfrogged us in nuclear technology, inventing a way to reprocess plutonium without dumping waste heat into the atmosphere!

You don't need large waste heat disposal facilities to reprocess plutonium.

p.s. For more info on reprocessing see here.

North Korea doesn't have to put a missile on an ICBM to have a deterrent.

You can just about fling a nuclear weapon across the DMZ and into downtown Seoul with a catapault. There's US bases with thousands of soldiers there too. In some ways, their nukes are redundant, because they can achieve pretty much the same effect by firing artillery shells laden with VX or some other chemical weapon into Seoul.

Not to mention that an ICBM can be used to carry a light warhead across the globe or (within certain limits) a heavy one a short distance.

The cooling tower is a nice touch. However, the thing was 60 feet tall and dwarfed by some of the trees behind it. If I was Rice I would have negotiated a ban on those camera angles.

I'd have to say that if NK doesn't give up their plutonium, existing bombs, up to date schematics of the the current bombs (and the "dud" bomb), and a record of their foreign nuclear correspondence -- they really haven't given up anything. The reactor has already served its purpose. But maybe I just have bush derangement syndrome.

Listed below are links to criminal and civil charges filed against this nut Robert Egan http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1P1-22436577.html

The latest Robert Egan North Korea June 2008 Nuclear threat is listed here http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Jun28/0,4670,BarbecueDiplomat,00.html

Here's the bottom line. Both Robert Egan and his so called friend, who just happens to be an army lawyer on fort Dix with access to nuclear secret and military and use civilian soft targets, should be investigated and stopped from further activity with North Korea. The only way this guy will be prosecuted is if you citizens act quickly by aiding the only witness who is willing to testify against Egans lawyers Mark Winkler a Franklin Lakes Attorney and Army Lieutenant Colonel, based on what Winkler disclosed which specifically identifies how much uranium was passed to Iran by north Korea, how this was done, which diplomats were involved and the threat of ongoing similar activity which is being ignored by the Newark New Jersey FBI and US Attorney Christopher Christie's office in Newark NJ because of political affiliation which will embarrass the Current administration. Call Judge Cavanaugh at 973 645 3932 and ask him to rule on an emergent relief motion filed by a black female army officer and attorney targeted by Mark Winkler�s filing of false harassment charges against her and the use of the Fort Dix Magistrate Court System and his friend Part Time Magistrate Judge Anthony Maurtone of Orange NJ, who deliberately threw out evidence to exonerate the officer and gave her an unprecedented 24 month term of probation supervised and now seeks to violate her privacy rights by forcing her to endure a mental health exam simply for being accused of calling winkler an hanging up the phone, no threats, but the racists climate on Fort Dix and winkler racist influence allowed this to happen. On June 11, 2008 Judge Cavanaugh ruled that Judge Mautones bar against the officer making public comments about the case, winkler and her excessive probation was an unconstitutional violation of the officer�s first amendment rights and vacated it. This infuriated Fascist Judge Mautone and in retaliation Judge Maurtone order that the Officer�s probation officer Patricia Jensen in Trenton NJ violate Ms. Jackson for having made public comment, and despite the June 11th ruling The Probation Department on June 16th signed a violation notice based on the officers making public comment and on June 18th in the District Court Of New Jersey in Newark argued before Judge Maurtone by the United State Attorney assigned to the matter by Fort Dix through a program approved by US Attorney Christopher Christie and criminal justice chief Mr. McKenna, that the officer should have probation revoked, face jail and have a mental health exam imposed, even though the officer who is a black female former military prosecutor 26 year veteran, JAG on fort Dix and current employee of the NJ Department of Law and Public Safety Officer of The attorney General with no prior criminal history whatsoever, a former Military Academy instructor, 9-11 first time responder with the National Guard, current Television News Analyst, and superb human being, Judge Mautone is trying to violate the officers constitutional right to privacy, by putting her in jeopardy against her will for forced mental health civil confinement simply because Judge Mautone was recently overruled by Judge Cavanaugh and Judge Mautone on he record threaded the office with facing unknown additional criminal charges he will pursue simply on the basis of a letter sent to the Judge by LTC Mark Winkler, unless the officer agrees to further unconstitutional restraints by the Department of Probation. This case is a travesty of justice and the officer is willing to go out as an example of why in this country there is a continuous struggle against anarchy and biased and serious judicial misconduct and the fact that Rosa Parks like was also convicted of a minor petty disorderly persons offense for failing to give up her seat on a public bus to a while male, is an example of how intolerable and racist the justice system is in this country currently and in particular in NJ. Please call the United States Attorney in Washington DC. To report this problem. Try to reach the ethics unit (202)514-7566 to ask that the us attorney remove the case from the fort dix prosecutors or call the new jersey US attorney Christopher Christie�s office at (973)645-2700 fax in requests to have this officers case reassigned to a special prosecutor unaffiliated with Fort Dix to Attn US Attorney Christopher Christie: (973) 645-2702 970 Broad Street, Newark New Jersey 07101 Regarding the case of US vs. Jackson

I am not sure why it takes so long to prosecute people like Robert Egan and Mark Winkler. Egans reports in vanity fair NPR Washington post etc is an obvious case of acting as an unregistered agent for a foreign nation, if Egan were in contact with Saddam�s government and tried to set up the prewar visit for our lawmakers he would have been prosecuted. To make matters worse, If Egan tried to get rich from it by trading influence with American lawmakers for an oil payment from Saddam he would have been arrested. This type of behavior is rampant in the US and goes unchecked and is a serious breach of security. Egans behavior with North Korean agents is far worse because Egan may have unfettered access to United States Military secrete material on fort dix which includes our location of potential terrorist targets like our bridges tunnels, nuclear and chemical power plants and the Homeland security monitoring schedules and New Jersey National Guard troop movements to protect these critical sites through his friend and lawyer LTC Mark winkler of the New Jersey Army National Guard JAG office. New Jersey American Citizen Robert Egan, an owner of a restaurant called cubbies in Hackensack NJ, doing the very same thing with North Korea. However this guys lawyer keeps him out of trouble, the only problem is Egan�s lawyer is a Lieutenant Colonel in the New Jersey Army National Guard n Fort Dix, (Mark Winkler, Esq. of Franklin Lakes NJ) and his lawyer may have received payments through his client Egan from North Korea. Egan pays his lawyer by referring him other clients who need asylum from Korea, North Vietnam etc, who have no money but Egan finances their asylum legal fees which are disguised as payments he makes to his lawyer who gets rich from this affiliation. TO make matters worse this lawyer, threatens anyone who talks to the media or law enforcement about him and files false harassment charges against anyone who tries to stop him. The lawyer recently told a female officer on Fort Dix, all about his clients operation and passing of secrets to N. Korea and the client�s knowledge of a North Korean uranium enrichment program which was in fact shared with Iranian government and aided the Iranian program. The lawyer threatened the female officer and used Fort Dix, officers to pursue unjust prosecution and conviction against the female officer, for petty disorderly harassment, to ensure she is discredited and cannot talk to law enforcement. This is really a problem since the Lawyer is a high level New Jersey army National Guard Lawyer who has ties to troop movements, military secretes and god knows what he passed to N Korea through his friendship with his client. The only way this story will be investigated and the people involved stopped are if the media holds Egan and his lawyer responsible for their actions. Many people have been harmed by these two including Hackensack NJ police officers whom the lawyer targeted in the past and tape recorded and threatened. Hackensack police chief kosener can confirm Winker represents Egan and has caused the city of Hackensack and the police department a lot of trouble. The female officer winkler targeted was forced to retire from the military and winkler used the US attorney�s office in Newark NJ run by Christopher Christie to target and file and prosecute false disorderly persons harassment charges against her when the military should have had jurisdiction over the case since the allegations concerned conduct which occurred while both winker and the female officer were both on military duty, but because the US attorney�s office gives the fort dix jags great discretion to appoint jag fort dix prosecutors to prosecute in magistrate court on fort dix, Winkler used his influence and tapped into racial bias to get the jags to pursue an unjust conviction for petty disorderly persons conviction against the female officer, which now Winkler used the conviction to notify the officers employer at the office of the attorney general to get her fired from her civilian employer and he also lied to her employer and passed faze information about a valid summons and complaint she signed in Hackensack nj as a citizens complaint filed against winkler for threatening her. Winkler had false information passed to the officers job with the nj attorney general that she misused her job as an attorney general employee to sign the Hackensack nj summons and complaint and this allegation is patently false since the form she signed was presented to her by a Hackensack police desk sergeant, and Hackensack police chief ed koesner will confirm she did nothing wrong. The only way to correct this injustice is for the media to contact US Attorney Christopher Christies office and remove the case from the jurisdiction of the special prosecutors on Fort Dix who are handling the case which is now on appeal with the district court, and the US attorney�s office can reassign it to a neutral US attorney not affiliated with fort dix, and review the facts and circumstances of the trial and unjust conviction to determine if the case should in fact be dismissed. Also the media must pursue the potential threats Winkler and his client pose to national security ASAP by simply reporting what Egan does, who he associates with in N Korea, and who his attorney is and report the fact that Egan�s attorney Winkler was questioned by FBI and US army Military Intel officers on this issue last year. Finally, the female officer will be a key cooperating witness and the unjust conviction is the only thing that damages her credibility against Winkler, Please stop this threat and report the risk Egan poses to national security for being able to trade with North Korea and take several trips there and act as an unregistered agent for North Korea. Please stop this person from destroying any more honest and brave people that tried to expose this but are being prosecuted and targeted by wither Winkler or Egan. Click on the attached link to access a recent Vanity Fair article on Robert Egan�s North Korean Affiliation

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/09/njspy200709 Then click on this link about N Korea�s possible assistance from Pakistan for uranium enrichment.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/30/AR2008013003214.html