Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for Free News & Updates

July 16, 2008
By: Kevin Drum

OBAMA vs. McCAIN....I periodically take a look at the poll-of-polls average maintained by RealClear Politics for the general election, primarily to keep myself on an even keel whenever I see a new poll showing one candidate or the other suddenly doing better or worse than expected. Here's today's, and as you can see nothing much has changed. Obama began to open up a sizable lead on McCain after the final primaries on June 3, and ever since Hillary's concession speech later that week he's maintained a 5-point lead, give or take a few points.

There's no larger point to make here. Just thought you'd all like to see the numbers.

Kevin Drum 11:34 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (16)

Bookmark and Share
 
Comments

Oh goody, another graph showing statistical noise.

When is BO going to release his June fundraising numbers. That number is more important than some poll that has 4% or higher uncertainty.

Posted by: optical weenie on July 16, 2008 at 11:37 AM | PERMALINK

McCain's primary problem is quite simple...if he actually just shut his pie hole, he'd climb a few points up the pollsters ladder, and if he shut his campaign collective mouths he'd climb at least five points up the pollsters ladder.

If he dropped out completely he be favorably viewed as the smartest Republican in the GoP!

Posted by: sheerahkahn on July 16, 2008 at 11:41 AM | PERMALINK

OT - an update to yesterday's comment about the TED Spread

There's also the Fed's "Discount Rate Spread" - it shows the spread between 30-day A2/P2 less AA Nonfinancial commercial paper (essentially a Commercial Paper stress test, i.e. non-bank)

The chart at the Fed's website (middle of the page) looks lots like the TED Spread chart - for reference (in quasi Fedspeak)

"Customary" = under 0.25

"Of Note" = 0.26 to 0.50

"Concerned Watchfulness" = 0.51 to 0.75

"Close Attention Required" = 0.76 to 1.00

"Liquidity Action Contemplated" = 1.01 to 1.25

"Mother of Mercy, etc." = over 1.26

Latest (yesterday) is .70

On the chart, the spikes are roughly equivalent to those I noted in the TED Spread spread

Posted by: fatbear on July 16, 2008 at 11:49 AM | PERMALINK

It looks even better if you go state by state. Pretty much the great majority are showing similar general directions in their aggregate polling (obviously not in GOP holdouts like Georgia and so forth).

Posted by: The Critic on July 16, 2008 at 11:52 AM | PERMALINK

Another chart that I like to consult is the Intrade McCain/Obama.

Posted by: jhm on July 16, 2008 at 11:59 AM | PERMALINK

But, Kevin, Adam Nagourney says none of that matters. What matters is that fewer white people like Obama than do black people. So Obama is a loser.

Gotta love the NYT's political coverage. Forever stuck on the "Dems in Trouble" narrative, even when the vast majority of the data point the other way.

Posted by: pdp on July 16, 2008 at 12:05 PM | PERMALINK

It is appalling that over 40% of the American public want John McCain to continue to inflict the horrific damage to this great Republic that Bush and his cronies began almost eight years ago.

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on July 16, 2008 at 12:07 PM | PERMALINK

Critic -- Georgia's not necessarily so hot for McCain. He's leading only 46-44 in the recent Poll Position poll, though Rasmussen had him up 51-43 a little earlier. This is one state where Obama is currently spending money on TV (unlike most places) because he can win or cause McCain a load of grief.

Posted by: David in NY on July 16, 2008 at 12:08 PM | PERMALINK

And I'm curious, like o. weenie, about Obama's fundraising numbers. Thought they were supposed to be in yesterday. McCain made himself look good by touting the combination of RNC and his own fundraising which was good, not great.

Posted by: David in NY on July 16, 2008 at 12:24 PM | PERMALINK

Weenie,
"Statistical Noise" would have been a great name for a 70's art-school new-wave band. Where were you when I needed you?

Posted by: thersites on July 16, 2008 at 1:12 PM | PERMALINK

The NYT had Obama up by 8 today. At first I thought that this poll was taken by the "other" RCP, the Revolutionary Communist Party, and I thought, "now that would be interesting."

Posted by: shoebeacon on July 16, 2008 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK

BTW, those numbers underestimate how Obama's doing because they used the LV of ABC/Washington Post's poll (+3) Obama instead of the RV (+8) and they never put in the USA/Gallup poll which had Obama +6.

But, yeah, Obama's just cruising along right now.

Posted by: mainer on July 16, 2008 at 2:37 PM | PERMALINK

This is GREAT news for McCain!

Posted by: Brent on July 16, 2008 at 3:27 PM | PERMALINK

Those numbers are misleading because they don't show how motivated the bases are of each party, and how likely they're actually going to go vote. Clearly, Obama has the advantage there.

Posted by: Andy on July 16, 2008 at 5:05 PM | PERMALINK

David in NY: And I'm curious...about Obama's fundraising numbers. Thought they were supposed to be in yesterday. McCain made himself look good by touting the combination of RNC and his own fundraising which was good, not great.

Obama's June fundraising: $52 million; average donation: $68.

McCain (minus RNC) raised $22 million in June.

Posted by: shortstop on July 17, 2008 at 9:51 AM | PERMALINK

Thanks, shortstop, I just came by to make note of this, but you had done it already. Neat trick, being coy about their numbers and then more than doubling McCain's.

Posted by: David in NY on July 17, 2008 at 11:04 AM | PERMALINK
Post a comment









Remember personal info?










 

 

Read Jonathan Rowe remembrance and articles
Email Newsletter icon, E-mail Newsletter icon, Email List icon, E-mail List icon Sign up for Free News & Updates

Advertise in WM



buy from Amazon and
support the Monthly