.....but Obama is so presumptuous.

Kevin, I have to agree (although I would guess by a smaller margin). What we are seeing, is a McCain bump smaller but similar to the Obama bump... and in fact it looks like the McCain bump is already subsiding. The difference is that Obama trip was more than a short term advantage it was foreign policy money in the bank. Meanwhile, McCain is burning off a bit of good will with the press, and his tactics render the "Bush 3rd term" argument more apt (because his campaign deeply resembles a Bush campaign).

In truth, I really don't care who the democratic nominee is, I'm voting against the Republican party, regardless of the name on the list.

2008
Finally, the end of an error!

Obama wins by 6 to 8 percentage points? Only lefties can be so delusional. McCain has stumbled on the winning formula: ridicule of the Messiah's egomania. Make Obama look like the airheaded, affirmative action baby that he is.

When are we going to stop paying attention entirely to the national poll numbers? Doesn't anyone else remember 200? Al Gore won the national vote, by 500,000+ votes, but still did not win the White House. What matters are the numbers in the individual states, as translated into the electoral map. Period.

Also remember that the Olympics start on Friday, so there will be little US Political coverage over the next few weeks.

I say Obama wins by 9-10 points.

I hope you're right Kevin, but you underestimate the stupidity or amygdalar character of the American public. The Repiglies know just how to diddle those limbic channels and Dems mostly don't. Before you get very comfortable with Obama's chances "as is", please read http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alex-castellanos/the-molten-core-of-barack_b_116904.html.

John Wilheim: and don't forget vote suppression and cheating etc. I hear from the grapevine we are better prepared this time, but I'm still worried.

Kevin, I'll put $20 on the "under" on your percentage point spread.

If he wins, it's no more than 52-48.

Arguably, we're in a process similar to the Gilded Age... several minority or near-minority elected presidents in a row. (Hayes, Garfield, Cleveland, Harrison, Cleveland all in a row back then.)

Shorter Kevin:

Serenity now!

After all, we can lose Ohio and Michigan and the math still works, right?

Obama wins by 6 to 8 percentage points...

...after he magically wakes up white, maybe.

Given a choice between the national id and the national superego, I'll take the id, and give the points.

i think in the end it is 8-10 points as i believe Obama will convince alot of people by the end of this that he is boatloads more intelligent and rational than McCain (and his professional yet sophmoric campaign managers)

A campaign for president is like a season of major league baseball. Nobody goes 162-0, and even good teams have periods where they lose a few games and look quite mortal.

Yes, McCain's having a good week. Hillary had a few good weeks, too, and look at what it got her.

There's no need to panic over a few days of weak polling.

—Kevin Drum

I disagree. There is absolutely NO reason, given the sad state of the economy and the general agreement now surrounding Obama's proposal to withdraw troops from Iraq over 16 months, that he should be tied with McCain nationally or in key states.

There is something fundamentally wrong with the way he is campaigning, or worse yet, something fundamentally wrong with the way the electorate now views him.

I strongly support Obama. But I believe that a certain arrogant complacency and overconfidence has set in. He simply will not win as a counterpuncher, allowing McCain to set the terms of the debate, a style with which he feels very comfortable.

Hope your right Kevin, but I think McCain narrowly wins this. As a rule of thumb, I think Democratic candidates for president are actually a couple points behind what the polls say and black candidates are probably about five points behind on that polled. That's a lot of ground to make up, even in a Democractic year.

Unfortunately, I think lower middle class voters in the Midwest are passively racist and overtly anti-intellectual, and I don't think a lot of them will vote for a black guy from Harvard. Those voters are telling pollsters now that they support Obama but probably will not do so once election day comes.

I also think McCain will use Mideast issues to pull a significant minority of Jewish voters to the Republicans. It will be interesting to see if Eric Cantor is the VP candidate.

I hope I am completely wrong about everything above.

Oh, and despite he good week, McCain isn't really bringing up HIS numbers.

I would assume the RNC will be the "this is why you vote for me" biography/theme week, where they try and turn him into Reagan crossed with TR... but still, McCain doesn't have a cohesive narrative yet.

Kevin:

Does your statement

...my advice to lefty bloggers and pundits of all stripes is: calm down.

If so, then you are a fool. And I don't think you are.

Conservatives would not have gotten nearly as far as they have if sensible people had attacked their idiocies tooth and nail. But no --- Democrats/Progressives/Liberals assumed that the public would see through their garbage and not elect them. They didn't see conservative ideology as the utterly abhorrent, dangerous and disgraceful garbage that it is. Why get extreme over such out-of-the-mainstream irrational idea? They'll die of their own accord. Why waste energy fighting them?

Didn't work, did it?

Every piece of conservative idiocy needs to be attacked by aware sensible people acting like rapid pit bulls. The conservative ideology has brought America to it's lowest point since the Civil War, and they want to drag us down even further.

It's time to declare war on conservatism. It's not time to "calm down." That abhorrent, anti-American and destructive ideology needs to be destroyed and placed on the trash heap of history along side it's equally failed ideology, Communism.

What will be really interesting is if McCain wins in the Electoral College, but not in the popular vote, and then confronts a Congress that's 59-41 Democratic in the Senate, and 250-185 Democratic in the House.

Four years of vetos, filibusters, filibuster threats, and cloture votes. Gridlock on an epic scale.

The median, 'independent' voter's fascination with the 'magic of divided government' is a good bet to deliver just such an outcome.

I've always thought that Obama's staff was pretty savvy, as was Obama himself. But in all this stuff about the dollar bills, I have not seen one member of his team, from him on down, point out that that comment was triggered by a right wing ad showing Obama's picture replacing dead presidents, ending with a kind of menacing flash (terrorist attack, to boot?). McCain got to beat up on Obama with the press cheering him on for a week with that key bit of context being totally ignored. If they aren't ready to slap back at both the press and the Republicans any better than that, then it might as well be John Kerry II.

Rick B: No, that's not what I meant. What I meant was: Don't panic.

Well, my money's on a very close popular vote. Electoral vote, not so much.

But though I'm rolling my eyes at Econobuzz's easy attribution of Obama's playing defense to the candidate's "arrogant complacency," playing defense he is, and I'd like to see him get out in front of these issues instead of waiting for the GOP to frame them. He and his people have demonstrated they're more than astute enough to recognize and plan for hot buttons. They ought to have seen the gas issue for what it was considerably sooner than they did.

Ground game and money don't affect the fundamentals: the candidate is a dud.

I agree. I am not sure of the extent or the limits of it, but you have to wonder what McCain's internal polling says. His current moves reek of desperation. I would much rather see the campaign build up its ground game, which is what it is doing. He can still fight back but do so in a mature, calm way, which is also what he is doing. Obama's moves right now make him seem confident but cautious and thorough, not leaving anything to chance.

I agree. I am not sure of the extent or the limits of it, but you have to wonder what McCain's internal polling says. His current moves reek of desperation. I would much rather see the campaign build up its ground game, which is what it is doing. He can still fight back but do so in a mature, calm way, which is also what he is doing. Obama's moves right now make him seem confident but cautious and thorough, not leaving anything to chance.

Obama wins by 3 points and 35 Electoral Votes. Not a landslide, but good enough for the win.

Kevin wrote: "Yes, the press is going through one of its periodic idiot phases"

Yes, the "press" goes through one of these "idiot phases" every four years.

Just like the "idiot phase" the "press" went through in 2000, when it glorified George W. Bush and engaged in an onslaught of character assassination against Al Gore, which got Bush close enough to steal the election with voter disenfranchisement and fraud.

Just like the "idiot phase" the "press" went through in 2004, when it glorified George W. Bush and engaged in an onslaught of character assassination against John Kerry, which got Bush close enough to steal the election with voter disenfranchisement and fraud.

Funny how that works.

I have an idea. Let's pretend that we have a free and independent "press", which generally functions in the public interest except for occasional, inexplicable "idiot phases", instead of a "press" that is entirely owned and controlled by a handful of giant corporations and knows exactly what it is doing by blasting the electorate with propaganda to put in power right-wing Republican presidents who cut taxes on corporations and the ultra-rich and deregulate media ownership.

I'm with Kevin here (oh, what the f***? When am I not?) I think as we get closer, McCain's weaknesses are going to become clearer to the general public. Obama hasn't hardly started attacking yet and he's still doing well. Wait for the debates. He's going to eviscerate McCain.

Yes, the press is going through one of its periodic idiot phases ... but this will burn itself out before long.

To be replaced by a new idiot phase.

Yeah, but most of those bloggers aren't really scared about losing. They're just upset at various Obama policy decisions lately, and are saying those will cause him to lose. Ie, concern trolling.

Wait for the debates. He's going to eviscerate McCain.

In 2000 -- it was either the Annenberg School, or the Pew Center for the People and the Press, but I can't find my bookmark -- polling found that people who watched the debates scored Gore the winner by roughly 60-40, but people who only watched the next-day coverage of the debates scored them 60-40 for Bush.

Years ago, I took a bunch of students to our local TV station to watch the local news at noon get produced -- part of a speech class.

As a special privilege, we were actually allowed on the set during the broadcast -- after strict lectures about silence, staying behind the taped lines on the floor, etc.

Anyhow, about midway through the segment at the top, I looked around at my students. Every one of them was watching the in-studio monitor, and not a one of them was looking at the talent, ten feet away, on the set.

The news wasn't what was in front of them, it was what was on the screen.

The oil companies, their Republican stooges and the MSM are the ones panicking. Will they create a panic attack to ensure they stay in power?

It's time to declare war on conservatism. It's not time to "calm down." That abhorrent, anti-American and destructive ideology needs to be destroyed and placed on the trash heap of history along side it's equally failed ideology, Communism.

"Failed Ideology" is a redundant phrase. Ideology doesn't solve problems. It only limits the potential solution set based on individual preference.

The world is not a closed system and human beings aren't reliably rational actors. Therefore, nearly every ideological vision of how things could be is pure fantasy.

The key to GOP victories, as someone else noted, is the fact that their ideological messaging appeals to the id, which is always inherently more gratifying than an ideology that requires individual sacrifice and effort. They've painted the governing philosophy of liberals as anti-individual while at the same time stripping us of individual rights and dignity in order to benefit a very powerful and well-connected few.

I think there are plenty of hare-brained liberal fantasies as well, but those aren't the fantasies that have gotten us into trouble over the past few decades, and, more importantly, they aren't the fantasies that threaten our quality of life in the 21st century. We cannot afford another Bush term. Literally. We'll be broke and shunned and well on our way to becoming stagnant, sentimental cultural Chauvinists on par with other failed empires like France or Britain. Maybe we're already there. Immigration is the only thing keeping us vital.

My biggest problem with both parties (and I'm currently a registered Democrat) is that they both spend their time talking about who the "somebody else" is that will get their comeuppance so the "us" that is presumably represented by their constituency will what they truly deserve. Conservatives dream of being rich. Liberals dream of being secure. Both goals are understandable, but both are not easily obtained for everyone. The former is impossible, and the latter is very damned hard given our complex global society.

I must admit I'm very disappointed in Obama's recent pandering. I thought he was going to tell us what we needed to hear, not what we wanted to hear. I suppose that's politics -- telling people what they want to hear in a compelling enough way so they believe you just long enough to pull the lever.

As for Obama's chances, I'd say they are slightly better than 50/50. Let's see how good his ground game really is. If ALL of the newly registered voters actually vote, and if women are very clear on McCain's position on abortion, then his chances are very good. I don't believe he has a 6% margin for error. More like 3%.

I noticed that Gallup has returned to its normal 47% -43% today. That is outside the margin of error, and probably reflects Obama's recent issue attacks on McCain's oil company centric "energy program."

It appears that Obama's best response to McCain's charge that Obama is an airhead was for Obama to propose a solid energy policy that sounds reasonable and includes compromise. Say thanks for the gang of 10. They threw Obama a lifeline.

Obama's team is so far famous for keeping their eye on the ball while his opponents are watching the scoreboard and live commentary.

McCain's team is right now resorting to desperation tactics, while Obama has not even begun to break a sweat. That should tell you something.

Minus the jelly donut.

It seems to me--now matter how efficiently the republican noise machine manipulates the press--it will be difficult to subvert Obama's now iconic status. The attempt to paint him as a "celeb" on a visual level was absurd. Any sort of negative association with Paris and Britney via montage/suggestion is overpowered by the truly astonishing footage of Obama in Berlin. With older voters, I would think this would form associations with JFK, minus the jelly donut.

Why is the opposing campaign running the most impressive images of Obama yet?! Just to introduce some sort of predatory sexual theme? I mean, it looks like an ad FOR Obama, except he can retain the dignity of NOT tooting his own horn.

Besides, isn't celebrity status a political bonus in our celebrity obsessed culture? In any case, Obama is way ahead of their game. When he secured the Dem nomination: BAM! Obama's on the cover of US magazine with his beautiful wife, the headlines touting their wonderful marriage. The week this celeb ad ran: BAM! Obama is on the cover of People with his picture perfect family and the subhead: "Who does the chores? (Not him!)"

I think that sort of publicity has traction in our culture.

Dude! GET IT THROUGH YOUR HEAD!

The "idiot phase" is not a "phase".

...so you are driving down the highway in your late model, lean, efficient car when next to you is some guy driving an old school bus like mad, going 80 miles an hour and passing in the fast lane. You pull ahead of him, then he pulls ahead of you and you think how can this guy keep up? Well he does for a little while - sometimes ahead of you, sometimes he gets stuck behind another car and you get ahead but can't seem to shake him. And then after about 10 miles of this back and forth finally he just can't keep up - and really he never could but for a while it seemed like it...

Listen to Rick, and Secular Animist. The Repubs are very skilled at gradually building psychological/emotional negatives towards the Democratic candidate. As inane as the "resent him for his celebrity status" adds are to the logical brain, they have implanted a weak, but unconscious negative emotional vibe about the candidate. They will keep chipping away trying to build his negatives up, until the election. Notice how they managed to create a mood this week, which I can best describe as Obama can do nothing right. If he appears too presidential, he is not like one of us, if he appears like one of us he is not presidential.... They have built some strong negative emotionals into my brain, right now I don't want to see his mug, mainly because I fear we will lose.

I'm afraid the only way is to fight fire with fire. Otherwise the highly uneven political/emotional playing field will sink our chances. We wish it was otherwise, that a campaign dollar spent on building the oppositions negatives was less effective than one spend building ones positives, but thats just not the way it works. It is easier to knock down than buildup. And the number of voters who vote on a coherent policy versus a vague emotional comfort/discomfort level is too small for the traditional Democratic wonkery strategy to work.

I think KD has about the right spread.

I look for Obama to win 52-44 with about 3% going to Green/Libertarian/Independent candidates. Leading to 305-325 EC delegates.

Two differences between this year and 2000 and 2004 are:

Obama's very strong local organizations, particularly in red and swing states -- having 60+ offices in Virginia is the kind of organization that can help drive up support and ensure turnout on election day.

McCain personally getting dirty on the negative attacks on Obama. Bush was able to avoid a lot of the backlash from the mudslinging against Gore and Kerry in part because the nastiest attacks did not come from him or his official campaign staff. This is going to be particularly damaging to McCain given because it shows how his image as an honorable "straight talker" is unfounded.

While I fret about the latest polls, I take solace in the inevitable Obama bump from the debates. Obama had to go toe-to-toe with Hillary at the end, while McCain never had to debate anyone one-on-one in the primaries. I can see at least one very long pause to an answer that we've already seen in his campaign stops.

Unfortunately, I think lower middle class voters in the Midwest are passively racist and overtly anti-intellectual, and I don't think a lot of them will vote for a black guy from Harvard. Those voters are telling pollsters now that they support Obama but probably will not do so once election day comes.

As someone who works on the line at a Michigan auto plant, I can tell you that the racism of a disconcertingly large number of working- and lower-middle-class whites is anything but passive.

My big hope now is that a lot of these people stay at home on 11/4, rather than go to actively vote for McCain. No "panic" for me, just weary resignation.

The final outcome may well be a 6-8 point win for Obama in the popular vote. But that's probably not enough to put this election out of stealable range for the GOP. Remember: they don't need to steal the election on a national basis, just in one swing state where the popular vote is close. That's how the GOP stole 2000 + 2004, and anyone who doesn't think that they'll try precisely the same thing this year is either a fool, an idiot, or a member of the Bush family. But, I repeat myself.

-Z

Obama has just experienced a big slide in the polls in Massachusetts.

Obama was up by 23 points over McCain in Massachusetts in early June. The latest poll very recently released, and which the Boston media is talking about today, is showing him now up by 9 points over McCain. McCain has made huge gains among male voters and independent voters in Massachusetts. If McCain is down only by 9 points in August, it could make Massachusetts potentially competitive and that Obama might have to spend resources here in Masschusetts to ensure it is in Democratic column. The couple days before the massive Super Tuesday primary, there was widespread feeling among the Boston media and local punditry that it looked like Obama was going to win Massachusetts. The Kennedy's were energetically supporting him, he had a well attended enthusiastic rally, there were polls showing that it was close and others showing him narrowly leading, and there was something in the air. I won't forget seeing Mike Barnicle with the late Tim Russert on MSNBC before the polls closed on Super Tuesday declaring he thought Obama would take the State. In the end, it was a very comfortable 10 point win by Senator Clinton.

Alarm bells should be ringing very loudly in the Obama campaign. He has had a terrible two weeks in the media and he is giving an impression of being like a weathervane with his views. I don't believe Obama will win and unfortunately his campaign is crammed with supremely arrogant people who always come up with a new way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

All this brilliant negative drip, drip, drip towards Obama is working. As an earlier poster mentioned it is going to be Kerry II.

Yes, the press is going through one of its periodic idiot phases

And the Earth is going through one of its periodic round phases.

the press is going through one of its constantidiot phases

Fixed.

All this poll crap is BALONEY. Who's paying for the polls? The media, so when they want McCain to rise in the polls, they poll more republicans and less independents, so they can have their horse race. Obama wins by more than 10 points in the popular vote.

But though I'm rolling my eyes at Econobuzz's easy attribution of Obama's playing defense to the candidate's "arrogant complacency," playing defense he is, ...

Posted by: shortstop

Perhaps my attribution to "arrogant complacency" was "too easy." But what would you call it when, in your own words, "He and his people have demonstrated they're more than astute enough to recognize and plan for hot buttons" -- but then fail to do so? Do we attribute the failure to laziness? Irresponsibilty? Lack of focus?

We agree on the key point: he is playing defense, which of course is not offense, which in turn makes no sense when all the issues are on his side. He is slowly letting McCain define him.

If that's not arrogant complacency, whatever it is, I sure hope it ends soon.

But what would you call it

Laziness? Maybe, though we haven't seen many signs of that in his campaign so far. Irresponsibility? Maybe, in a limited sort of way and probably involving a limited number of players. Lack of focus? Yeah, could be, on this issue at least.

Misjudgment, miscalculation, a poor decision, a bad call? I'll concede it could be any of those things. What I'm not going to do is rush to reinforce Republican talking points about the alleged arrogance and self-absorption of the Democratic candidate.

Courage, g. powell. This is how it is: Obama needs to take the states Kerry won in '04, plus Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico. That's it. That gives him 272 electoral votes. I'm from Iowa--we have a popular Democratic governor, and two popular new Congressmen. Even the Repubs are admitting Iowa won't be close.

So, the Kerry states: The *only* Kerry state McCain has even a decent chance in is in Michigan. If Obama does lose Michigan, he can replace it with Virginia + Colorado (two more states with Dem governors, and thus machines). That's not even mentioning Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri, all of which are competitive. Obama's even within 2-5 in Florida, which would negate a lot of other states.

To put it another way: McCain can win Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Michigan and STILL lose, while if Obama takes just ONE of the above five states *or* the above scenario (Iowa + Nevada + New Mexico + Colorado + Virginia), he wins. If you're feeling down, write a letter to the editor or volunteer with the campagin. Action helps.

Listen to Rick, and Secular Animist. The Repubs are very skilled at gradually building psychological/emotional negatives towards the Democratic candidate.

John--yes, Obama lost to a more popular Democrat in the Democratic primary. How'd that work out for the other Democrat, by the way?

MassaCHUSETTS? Massa-freaking-chusetts? The state Republicans CONSTANTLY insult and attack? You think MASSCHUSETTS is within range for McCain?! What crack are you smoking and where can I get some? McCain's not even going to ADVERTISE there. He's written it off. If you were talking about Minnesota or Michigan you might be halfway believable. McCain could pick the late Samuel Adams as his VP and he STILL wouldn't take the state.

Still, it is good to know we can discredit anything else you have to say.

Smarter monkeys, please!

(Oh, and Econobuzz--you don't think McCain's arrogant by giving a speech talking about all the great things that will happen if one votes for him? Or that ridiculous plane he has? Come on. Assuming you *are* a strong supporter of Obama-which I doubt because of your use of the word "arrogant"-- you should not be reinforcing right-wing memes. Go read Bob Herbert's column where he explains that "arrogant" really means "uppity black man.")

Kevin,
I disagree with you in this post. It is very dangerous to count your chickens before they hatch.

Kevin is being optimistic, and helping with a stress management technique. Any reasonable person can see that Obama is the correct choice, and McCain the insane choice, four more wars, hypocrisy, lunacy, McBush all over again. I just saw a crawl at the bottom of the teevee news saying 80% of women would rather carpool with Obama than oldie McCain. Doesn't that stand for something?
Impeach the Bushies and the neocon philosophy now. Go Suskind. The change of subject back to the deceptions of this illegal administration is welcome. It is all anyone is talking about.

I, uh, gotta say, Obama's 'presumtuousness' doesn't turn me off so much as him being a damn turncoat on FISA, faith-based crap, etc.

Nice how he ran as a liberal and turned out to run as a Republican when he was given the nomination.

Hell, I disliked Hillary (in the same way a cat dislikes baths) but I regret not voting her into the lead now. At least I knew up front she was a DINO; she didn't lie to us about it like Obama. He and the DNC get nothing of my money anymore. Sure, I'll vote for him, but it's not voting for him, it's just voting against McCain. My faith in Obama, my trust of him, has rotten away now.

Good job, Barack! Ya shitheel.

To shortstop and Greg,

I should have used the phrase "overconfident complacency" rather than "arrogant complacency." Point taken.

But Obama's campaign needs a reboot on message. He is beginning to look weak and indecisive. And humor doesn't work when one looks weak and indecisive.

Maybe you don't believe he can lose this election, but I've seen enough to know that he can. I just saw an ad that is better, but he needs to stay on offense.

Complacency is death. I thnk Obama is quite vulnerable simply because of his non-traditional status. I want to believe the American people are ready to vote for a black man but it's a stretch for me. I support him completely and I think McCain, while a decent enough guy, is absolutely the wrong thing for America right now. I'm feeling better about Obama's chances but I'm still giving McCain 5-4 odds of winning.

I agree with above comments about sharpening attacks and responses. McCain is fairly easy to run against, but the Obama campaign has to work more with McCain's negatives. Therein lies the source of my hope. I also don't see a spread beyond 52-48. If McCain wins, it's a squeaker, Obama wins by a few points.

Forgive me, but I still have a hard time picturing "I Barack Hussein Obama do solemnly swear..." But it would be a truly historic and breathtaking occasion.

I was leaning toward Obama because of his anti-Iraq war stance, but I must say I have been shocked at the degree of racism shown by minority groups, Obama at present winning the black vote 94 to 1. I think blacks and Hispanics need some sensitivity training before they are ready to take over in the coming majority-minority America. Obama is deliberately vague on reparations, for ex. I never owned any slaves.

It's my party,
And I'll panic if I want to,
Panic if I want to,
Panic if I want to,
You would panic too
If it Happened to you.

Al Gore's Aunt Lesley

What Rick B said, albeit Kevin's clarifications taken respectfully!

Have you read Digby today? The washington Capitol Gang is apparently in charge of THE MESSAGE! And they are following the well worn path of ignore and retreat, and it will all just go away. Look people! we have lost too many national elections following this stupid policy. Get off it. Let Obama tell the public what he intends to do in his own words, that is what worked and what will work to get him elected.

Yeah, I don't think there is really a reason to panic, but I don't think people are really doing that.

But contrary to you, I'm not so sure things will "burn themselves out" but rather expect that the media will basically deliver us nothing but rigged debates, just like the Dem and Repub primary debates were rotten almost down to each single one, because the Dems and the American people didn't stick up for themselves and stop it.

There is definitely work for us to do to help ensure that Barack gets elected and that the media playing-field becomes more level.

Luther, check out what Kerry's numbers, and Gore's, were among African-American voters. I didn't realize these men were secretly black!

Couldn't be that African-American voters vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, regardless of race, and have done for decades, could it? Nah.

Presidential campaigns are marathons, not sprints, and we are nowhere near the finish line. If this were October I'd be worred. But early August? C'mon. What percentage of Americans are paying attention to this race like it's an ongoing tournament?

Most are NOT paying attention and so far nothing that has transpired has much staying power-- these are all fairly minor things that are only highlighted because of the 24/7/365 campaign mode that we have grown into.

I think it's far more likely that McCain's low road attacks will come around and bite him in the ass. He is exchanging his credibility for some very short-term gains. Think about how low he's sunk so early-- where can he go from here?

It is not electoral panic that is making liberals and progressives anxious, it is the understanding Sen. Obama is an establishment moderate. Hope he is not any worse than that.

Brojo, the real choice is Grandpa Onion Belt or Obama. Yes, it would be great if we could elect someone who recognizes that the Department of Unprovoked Aggression is harmful both to the nations it assaults and our own. It would be nice to have a President who recognized the fallacy of letting the corrupt stooges installed by this corrupt regime keep their jobs.

We aren't going to get someone liberal. The best we can hope for is a centrist like Obama. No amount of kvetching is going to give us an ideal candidate - and my ideal isn't going to be yours.

There is no stomach in the United States for what needs to be done. So the only thing left to do is move incrementally towards it (yes, yes, impeach, convict, remove, try, and imprison - but those things require a respect for the rule of law that is long gone).

"McCain isn't going to have much left in his attack dog quiver."

Republicans are manufacturing inconsequential "issues" now and they will continue to do so. Why shouldn't Obama's campaign use the Republicans' tactics? How about an ad with the video of McCains supermarket visit? This was hilarious on the Daily Show - why not put it out where the MSM have to take notice?

(Trying to visualize the metaphor - is it a dog with a quiver on his back, or McCain with a quiver full of dogs?)

McCain doesn't need to manufacture anything. The weak polling for Obama comes down to the simple fact that his resume is too thin for people to trust him with the office. He's got the youth vote, the idealist vote, the core Democrat votes...and that's it. He's not going to pick up any more votes, because nobody else thinks he's qualified for the job.

Counterpoint, Robert: except for a select few members of the Bush family- not the entire family, mind you- nobody else thought that GWB was qualified for the job either.

-Z

I hate being told to "calm down"--it's so condescending. Right up there with "get off your high horse."

oldvpscf znioa mdptibxs derswfibc wgxm oihdwzj zretlkain

oldvpscf znioa mdptibxs derswfibc wgxm oihdwzj zretlkain