Yet another example of where both major parties have the same mindset on a fair amount of foreign affairs.

There were two reasons the invasion occurred now: payback for Kosovo, and giving the new president, Medvedev, a trophy, something to brag about and put on his resume.

It's funny how Putin 'handed over power' to Medvedev, and is now prime minister, yet everyone just takes for granted that Putin is still running things.

And I'm sure he is; but it was probably important to transfer some glory to his puppet.

I wonder how that soul is looking these days? maybe gwb needs new glasses?

I'm very curious if the US had advance knowledge of the Georgian plan. I'd find it a little hard to believe if we had none. If so, it would be yet another foreign policy disaster for this administration, but why screw up a perfect record?

We really need to have a serious debate about NATO expansion, including much needed questions about the alliance's raison d'etre. How disastrous would this war have been if Georgia had been a member?

"Georgia forced the issue on Thursday, possibly working under the delusion that they could win a lightning victory before Russia had time to respond, Russia called their bluff and won..."
_____________

That's truly nonsense of the first order. It took far longer than just a few days to position the Russian forces and prepare a battle plan. This operation had to be in planning for weeks.

Russia still has to deal with the opposite situation in Chechnia, maybe Obama should point that out... so far, he [Obama] has acted like his various responses were scripted by McCain's commercial writers.

That's truly nonsense of the first order. It took far longer than just a few days to position the Russian forces and prepare a battle plan. This operation had to be in planning for weeks.

Um, nothing about his post indicates otherwise. There had been a series of events leading up to this in the last 2 to 4 weeks, and both sides were well-positioned to both attack & respond by the time this powder keg went off.

Everyone would do well to brush up on the history of the area. The Ossetian people have a loyalty to the Russian Empire that dates at least as far back as 1801, and Russian leaders have looked upon the Ossetians as favored people and loyal subjects ever since. South Ossetia has functioned as a de facto independent state since 1992, because Russian backing in their bid for independence forced Georgia to accept the Ossetians terms, or keep bleeding, literally and figuratively. They didn't have to like it, but they did have to accept it, and grudgingly worked just fine so far as the power-brokers were concerned.

This is a dry run for the tidying up of the -- to Russians, at least -- unresolved status of the Crimea.

If the Ukrainian navy tries to prevent the Russian Black Sea fleet from returning to Sevastopol, as has been reported, I expect much bigger trouble than Abkhazia and Ossetia.

Kevin:

I don't think this means US security guarantees to Georgia are null and void. If the Russians try to take the rest of Georgia then we might get involved.

Oil, you know..

I'm guessing that people in Panama who are watching the news from Georgia nod to each other...

Not to stick up for the ole US of A here, but did we ever really suggest that we would help Georgia to hold on to Ossetia? When, exactly, did we make that bluff? And if the cost of us getting what we wanted in Kosovo, the expansion of NATO, and missile systems is that Georgia loses a couple cruddy little regions that evidently don't want to be a part of Georgia anyways, that's a pretty good deal for us, no?

Maybe this whole thing is just Georgia overreaching and paying a price. Maybe attempting to shoehorn it into the narrative of overreaching US foreign policy is a big stretch. Maybe.

There had been a series of events leading up to this in the last 2 to 4 weeks, and both sides were well-positioned to both attack & respond by the time this powder keg went off.

During which time the media were reporting on what?

Paris Hilton vs. Obama, Hillary's role in the convention, and John Edwards' sex life, as I recall.

Isn't great that our media superstars are earning their high salaries?

And - meanwhile - I trust that nothing is going on in , say, Latin America that they are failing to cover.

The big question is how do we shoe-horn "neocons are to blame" into this? Think creatively Dummie-bots.

The US invaded Kosovo to keep the Serbs from asserting their sovereignty over a region of their country that had a non-Serb majority. Substitute "Kosovo" for "South Ossetia", "Serbia" for "Georgia", and "USA" for "Russia", and what you have is history repeating itself.

Via Google, here is a comment made here by POed Lib on the day Kosovo declared its independence:

This may be a terrible moment in European history. Here's why: There are 20-30 small areas in Europe which, like Kosova, yearn for self-determination. Now, we have the precedent of independence, sponsored by the US, for one area.

Chechnya

Basqueland

Kurdistan

and so forth

We have opened Pandora's box, and it is gonna be an unholy mess there.
Posted by: POed Lib on February 18, 2008 at 12:28 PM | PERMALINK

20-30 areas in Europe -- and many more around the world. Any guesses on who's next?

I don't know about OUR bluff being called, there was no formal alliance....and even if Georgia was granted NATO membership, which wasn't that far fetched that long ago, I don't think we'd be rallying to their defense at this point anyway.

What was Georgia thinking? That the west would risk World War III so they could take back South Ossetia (whose population apparently likes Russia better anyway)? Not bloody likely.

If anything Georgia's bluff was called. And once they rolled in trying to capture South Ossetia, they gave Russia the justification they've been waiting (and preparing) for, to bolster South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence (well Russian dependent independence anyway...).

It does make us look pretty shitty though. Russia knew we wouldn't be rushing to Georgia's aid, Putin even bragged about this in talks with Georgian President Saakashvili when Saakashvili tried to use his ties with the west (the US in particular) as leverage. And let's not forget that Georgia had sent troops to support our war in Iraq.

Maybe Saakashvili thought we'd react as we did in Bosnia or Kosovo....but Russia ain't Serbia, and we have enough on our plate right now.

What was Georgia thinking?

That is a real problem. And who cares? They should be trying to learn to think -- and act -- in Western terms. Otherwise, it's all them, them, them and their unique history, culture, tradition, etc. They are not with any program, so should pay the price for their foolishness.

They should be trying to learn to think -- and act -- in Western terms. Otherwise, it's all them, them, them and their unique history, culture, tradition, etc. They are not with any program, so should pay the price for their foolishness.

Hmmm... thinking and acting in Western terms... like respecting the sovereign borders of other nations, abiding by international conventions like Geneva, and abandoning barbaric traditions like capital punishment? Sorry, but that shit is downright un-American.

Any guesses on who's next?

The Crimea, if the Ukrainian Navy as has been reported tries to keep the Russian Black Sea Fleet from returning to Sevastopol.

Now, junebug, don't be cynical in your thinking. If you don't know what Western values are, you have a problem. Think beyond Bush, beyond the present, and you might see something valuable here in the West. :-)

I wonder if we will see Putin banging his shoe in the UN like that fat guy once did.

Uhh, how does Georgia invading now mean Russia chose the timing?

That's bizarre.

I heard good discussion today on McLaughlin, you guys should watch. For his faults, Buchanan is actually very canny and was picking on recent US policy in the Caucasus, our needless needling of Russia etc. Did you guys know, South Ossetia has been in a semi-independent condition since about 1993, and the status quo was doing well enough? And it's interesting, Bush visited Georgia recently did he not, and McCain had some connection even if not there IIRC. Do you smell a rat? Interesting that this episode makes US voters think about "Who is better qualified to be Commander in Chief" more than the economy, etc. Sure, thousands dead, wounded, displace, but would They do such a thing? IMHO, you bet.

Anybody read The Guns of August recently?

"the West should have negotiated more seriously on Kosovo"

what a load of crap. The West did what was necesssary to prevent further atrocities by Serbian fascists (you know - the actual far-right taht we should all oppose).

when did you become an apologist for Putin and his henchmen Kevin?

Kevin didn't say he agreed that "the West should have negotiated more seriously on Kosovo", Neil. He said that is one of the points Putin has made. Made rather forcefully, I would say.

*

Oil Pipeline.

Am I the only one who thinks that the South Ossetian peoples fate is a just a convenient hook for the Russians to get closer to the pipeline that runs from Baku through Tblisi and out to Turkey?

Scottr,

Am I the only one who thinks the same thing about the Georgians' attitude towards the South Ossetians?

Fucking christ, this is a joke. Y'all are all about these independence movements, except when it benefits countries you don't like. Again, let me state it again. There is a real group of people called Ossetians. They do not want to live under Georgian rule. They want to be reunified with their fellow countrymen across the border. That's just a fact. Pretending that these are a "fake" people made up by Russia just doesn't make sense. Whether this benefits Russia or not is not the main point. The point is what do YOU think should happen to the South Ossetians?

And Kevin, the 'status quo' was that the Russians DID already control South Ossetia (remember the 'peacekeepers'?) and Abkhazia. What the the great change to the status quo that this is supposed to bring about? Russia controlled them to start with and they'll control them at the end of the day. Georgia gets punched in the face for trying to tease Moscow, which is just the way things work. We'd do the same thing over much less of a provocation.

Does anyone really think Russia wants to literally take over that basket case of a country? Please...That little neo-con rose Saakashvili thinks his think-tank friends are going to save his ass, but he'll be out in the next election, and we'll be back to the normal state of affairs, where very small nations next to very large nations fall under said large nations' influence and don't try to provoke the large nations into a war.

I can't believe how this is being played in the US press. Ridiculous.

"
This may be a terrible moment in European history. Here's why: There are 20-30 small areas in Europe which, like Kosova, yearn for self-determination. Now, we have the precedent of independence, sponsored by the US, for one area.
Chechnya

Basqueland

Kurdistan

and so forth

We have opened Pandora's box, and it is gonna be an unholy mess there.
"

Uhhh...
Explain to me exactly why it is such a terrible idea for these places to become independent if they want to be? Isn't there just as much of a problem here in the fact that the rest of the country they belong to wants to force them to do something they don't want to do?

Ultimately what is going on here boils down to the question of does it make sense for a central power to be able to impose laws, generally laws that are spiteful and pointless (like limiting language/religious/cultural/educational practices) over groups of its citizens that strenuously object to those laws.

The way this has played out in civilized countries (Canada, Spain, UK etc) is that initially the central government behaves like a**holes; the locals are forced to resort to violence (sometimes bad, but not at the level of wars); and after twenty years of this stupidity the central government eventually stops behaving like a**holes, and these places get a level of autonomy that allows them to control the stuff they care about.
This is not the ideal trajectory, but it's not the end of the world.

I imagine that this is the way these things will continue; Turkey will learn nothing from Northern Ireland, but in ten years will, after a vast waste of money and life, reach much the same sort of deal. And so on for most of Europe.
Georgia could have gone down the ideal path with South Ossetia (give them decent rights), or the stupid path (oppress them, breed a terrorist movement, wait 30 yrs and 1000 deaths, then do the right thing); instead it made a deliberate decision to do the insane thing. (Serbia followed the same path.)

So the real question is not how many places are there in Europe that consist of slightly grumbling minorities; but how many such places are there where the oppressing country is likely to do something insane?
Outside the Caucasus I can't think of any. It doesn't seem like the sort of stunt that Turkey, the Baltics, Romania, the Ukraine, etc would pull.

Speaking of powder kegs, military preparations, and bluffs, what's happening in the wake of operation brimstone?

"Does anyone really think Russia wants to literally take over that basket case of a country?"

Yes. The oil pipeline is there. I am that cynical. Russia is exporting 4.4 mill barrels/day. THere is 1 mil / day flowing thru that pipe.

Whether or not they found a way to enact the caus beli to use the Ossetians as excuse can be debated but no, I don't think they care about the people/ethnic group/region at all.

There is some undefined lower limit below which independence doesn't make much sense. What's next, the Walloon Free State and Welshland?

There is the strong likelihood that South Ossetia and Abkhazia will be "independent" only about as long as it takes the Russians to consolidate their hold on those areas. The "liberated" areas will fall all over themselves forming governments which will seek union with Russia. That makes the arguments about Georgian intentions ring very hollow, indeed.

Ah, well. Perhaps the Russians will just be satisfied with those little bits and won't swallow Georgia whole. Right away.

These events realize how much things have changed in eight years.

In 2001 when Bush took over, the United States was at its peak in international power and prestige, post 1975 and Russia was only two or three years off their nader. Since then, the United States, has been burning its seed corn in prestige and potential power in Iraq, while Russia has been accumulating it.

Now with the world concentrating on the Olympics, and Bush and Putin on hand, the Russian's invade a U.S. ally.

The relative weakness of the United States compared to where it was 8 years ago is stunning.

Thanks, Neocons, thanks Republicans, and thanks Ralph Nader, while I'm at it.

"Speaking of powder kegs, military preparations, and bluffs, what's happening in the wake of operation brimstone?"
___________________

It ended a week ago. Everybody went home, which is what happens when a training exercise ends. What's a routine FTX off the eastern coast of the US got to do with anything?

The relative weakness of the United States compared to where it was 8 years ago is stunning.
_______________________

You're easily stunned.

scott: The oil pipeline is there. ... I don't think they care about the people/ethnic group/region at all.

Such a cynic! If America can invade Iraq to free it's oppressed people, why can't Russia, with its long and proud tradition of defending liberty and self-determination, do the same for South Bumfuck (oops, I mean Ossetia).

"There is some undefined lower limit below which independence doesn't make much sense. What's next, the Walloon Free State and Welshland?"

If you do things sensibly, it doesn't come to that.
There is a standard pattern in these things. The people involved want control over their language, culture, education, and one or two other things. You give them that, and everyone is, if not happy, at least willing to live with the situation.

You don't have people pushing for Welshland because the Welsh have the autonomy they want. I don't understand what the complaints of the Scots are, but they have their own parliament now, some level of control over their finances, and they seem happy. Of course they will bitch till the end of time that they deserve all the money from North Sea oil, but they won't go to war over it.

Likewise, the primary reason the Kurds fixated on Kurdistan is because the Turks made it quite clear that they were not welcome in Turkey. Get rid of that situation (which will take some time), give them control over the things they care about, allow a generation for memories to fade and people to realize the central government is sincere, and the problem will go away.

Belgium is an interesting case. I don't understand exactly what each party's complaint is there, so I don't have any ideas on how practical it is to fix it; on the other hand, I also don't see the problem in splitting the country in two. Both halves will still be part of the EU, and life will go on; there are smaller countries in Europe. Heck, it might be a good dry run for future Europe --- the EU could tell them they can join, sure, but they each get half of what former Belgium had, so they get a half vote each, rather than a full vote, and a half frequency slot in the rotating presidency.

I don't understand what the complaints of the Scots are, but

Perceiving offenses everywhere and quick to take offense. C'mon, what's there not to understand about us!

Dick Cheney has said that Russia's attack on Georgia "cannot go unanswered". Now I am really worried!

The Conservative Deflator--

Picky, picky, but again, let's remember that Georgia was the one who attacked. As for 'disproportionate response', well, yeah, I'd say that when you provoke a country 50 times your size you better expect a 'disproportionate' response. How could it be otherwise?

What a sad joke that Saakashvili thinks he can do something like that and then just call a "truce". Like, uh, "Sorry, just kidding, I didn't mean that..." Wouldn't it be nice if we could all sucker punch someone and then offer to stop the fight when the blows start coming back? Yeesh...

What a sad joke that Saakashvili thinks he can do something like that and then just call a "truce". Like, uh, "Sorry, just kidding, I didn't mean that..."
_____________________

Georgia's actions might not have mattered at all. It's likely the Russians were simply waiting for any reason to jump off. A riot, a poorly written speech, a bad call in a football match. Anything.

It's not like the people of South Ossetia were in danger of being horribly oppressed or massacred as in Bosnia or Rwanda.

kokblok: What a sad joke that Saakashvili thinks he can do something like that and then just call a "truce". Like, uh, "Sorry, just kidding, I didn't mean that..."

Maybe he just saw The Mouse That Roared and didn't realize it was fiction. Kind of Georgia's version of Ronald Reagan.

trashhauler: It's not like the people of South Ossetia were in danger of being horribly oppressed or massacred as in Bosnia or Rwanda.

Come now, the freedom loving Russians believe that they can never be too careful in protecting the rights of oppressed minorities.

What's next, the Walloon Free State and Welshland?

Is the word "Wales" really so obscure?

ajay: Is the word "Wales" really so obscure?

It's a name imposed by the English imperialists. The proper name is Cymru.