Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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August 12, 2008
By: Kevin Drum

GEORGIA WAR WINDING DOWN?....The Russo-Georgian war appears to be pretty much over:

Russia's president today said his country was ready to begin peace talks with Georgia to end a five-day conflict over pro-Russian separatist-minded enclaves along the two nations' Caucasus region border.

....[Dmitri] Medvedev, speaking after a closed-door meeting in Moscow with French President Nicholas Sarkozy, said peace talks could commence provided Georgia return its troops to their original positions before the outbreak of hostilities five days ago over control of the breakaway pro-Russian enclave of South Ossetia and sign a "legally binding document" vowing not to use force.

....Securing a lasting peace may prove difficult. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters today that Moscow rejects the U.S.-educated Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili as a partner in peace discussions.

This is an unsurprising end to the conflict. Russia doesn't want to annex Georgia, which would be a festering sore forever, and certainly their conventional forces don't have the wherewithal to "reassemble the Russian empire," as some of the more breathless commentators on the right have suggested. Rather, this was a demonstration war. In the same way that Thomas Friedman suggested that the real reason for the Iraq war was to send a message ("Suck. On. This."), that was pretty much the reason for this war too. Russia may not want to occupy Georgia or Ukraine or any of the rest of its Near Abroad, but Georgia is going to pay a heavy price for messing with Vladimir Putin — thousands dead, two provinces gone, their military smashed, all capped off by a humiliating peace agreement — and that's mission accomplished as far as he's concerned.

Kevin Drum 11:43 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (16)
 
Comments

I think that nails it.

Posted by: mike s. on August 12, 2008 at 11:51 AM | PERMALINK

Here is a question. What would have happened if McCain had his finger on the trigger? Would we be in or close to a shooting war? McCain's comments in this case lead me to wonder if he or his team are really ready to lead on foreign policy.

Posted by: Ron Byers on August 12, 2008 at 12:14 PM | PERMALINK

the real reason for the Iraq war was to send a message

Wow. What message did we send, exactly?

I'm not condoning Russia's behavior, but if the purpose of war is message-sending, they sure did a better job of it than we did. When do we get to see Putin in a flight suit?

Posted by: thersites on August 12, 2008 at 12:14 PM | PERMALINK

Putin is going to withdraw from Georgia. He doesn't want to be tied occupying a hostile province. Shit he saw what happened to the US. The Georgians, Ukranians and all the rest are going to think twice about pissing on Russia in the future.

Posted by: Ron Byers on August 12, 2008 at 12:22 PM | PERMALINK

Plus, he boosted the morale of his military.

Posted by: Cazartsky on August 12, 2008 at 12:24 PM | PERMALINK

Good analysis and do check out a good column at Slate.com.

I also wonder about the "what if" of this happening if McCain was President.

Posted by: John on August 12, 2008 at 12:28 PM | PERMALINK

cut n run

Posted by: kevin k on August 12, 2008 at 12:45 PM | PERMALINK

Puti-put has Georgie Boy on a string. How embarrassing for the US. How clueless for Bush.

Posted by: Cal Gal on August 12, 2008 at 12:49 PM | PERMALINK

Jonah Goldberg and Michael Ledeen should be pleased that Putin has taken the Ledeen Doctrine to heart.

"Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business."

Posted by: joXn on August 12, 2008 at 1:22 PM | PERMALINK

The real question is: Where was Condi vacationing and why did it take her four days to "cut it short"? You don't suppose it was some elitist place like Hawaii, do you?

Posted by: Ron on August 12, 2008 at 1:46 PM | PERMALINK

and the cherry on top is that the usa looks weak and also that no country can count on the usa to come to its aid.

oops.

Posted by: Who Knew on August 12, 2008 at 3:03 PM | PERMALINK

Just in case anyone's counting at home that $100 million of your tax money that went to train the Georgian army.

Money that's been flushed down the toilet yet again.

Posted by: Sean Scallon on August 12, 2008 at 3:56 PM | PERMALINK

Can you say "client state" children?

Posted by: j swift on August 12, 2008 at 4:48 PM | PERMALINK

Is it possible, Bushadmin pressed Georgia into a fracas to make McCain look better?

Posted by: demoraptor on August 12, 2008 at 5:21 PM | PERMALINK

McCain steps in after the fray and aligns himself, and as he speaks for all Americans, aligns us as well, with Georgia. While Russia looks on.

This American (me) was rather more aligned with Ossetia, actually, in its attempts to exert its independence from Georgia. Guess McCain didn't get the secession memo...

Posted by: Zit on August 12, 2008 at 9:11 PM | PERMALINK

International Website Where You Can Show Your Support And Solidarity To Georgia:

http://www.georgiasupporters.com

Please Share This Website With Everyone You Know (Add this address to your MSN, Orkut, ICQ etc)!

Posted by: Andres Mets on August 13, 2008 at 12:29 PM | PERMALINK
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