And they reestablished themselves as a power player in force and policy projection too. At precisely the time the US looks the weakest. Georgia is the big loser here, but in some respects, the US can't be far behind.

"Europe has been pretty consistent in its condemnation of the invasion"

whoa, that'll scare em!

One wonders why, in KevinWorld, this condemnation is apparently more significant than, say, US condemnation. More signficiant even than condemnation from Senator Hopenchange.

Well I'd say it was because currently, Europe tortures less than we do, Europe invades less small weak nations that we do, Europe is not quite as good at killing our atmosphere as we are.

Sucks for Georgia but that is what comes of losing a war. That said, I would find it hard to believe that Russia would want Turkey on it's southern border. Not that Turkey is going to attack or anything but they ARE in NATO, and for a long time.

Which is probably good news for McCain. Which results from the fact that every Bush misstep from now unill November - sadly, ironically, and realistically - on foreign policy benefits McCain politically.

We are so fu.... - well, you know.

European condemnation might be more important because the nations of Europe are Russia's neighbors, and because Russia trades considerably more with Europe than with the US. Maybe Europe's credibility (can such a thing be collective?) is greater than the US's, and maybe that matters, but Russia imports a lot of goods from Germany and Italy and most of its exports are to NATO countries.

Welcome back Russia, Bush's pet got exackly what he desreved, it is now up to the Georgians to remove this suicidal man from their presidency.

China also needs to flex its muscle soon. The world needs someone to counter the USA arrogant & irresponsible use of power.

The set back was for the US. Not only did we pull a 21st century version of the Shia uprising, but the lost prestige and leadership will carry forward to the next administration no matter who wins. Imagine what the "Freedom Fries" crowd thinks of the FRENCH President negotiating a deal with both parties. Perhaps W will blame the Chinese for holding the Olympics when Russia was going to invade.

How does South Ossetia and Abkhazia being under Russian control but still being Georgian sovereign territory differ from the status of the US base at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba? Isn't that what the retards in the White House crowed about when they set up the concentration camp there?

"it was a nice, surgical operation that pretty much accomplished everything it was supposed to"

Somewhere right now Donald Rumsfeld is having fits of jealous rage.

Kevin... a couple of points: First, Saakashvigli came into office pledging to take control of Ossetia and Abkhazia. At the time this would have been one of his (perhaps) primary draws. Now Saakashvigli is more popular and supported as an economic and anti-corruption reformer (which is not the same as a Democrat/political reformer as the press would have it). Sure the Russian response was devastating, but: A) If it did not set back economic growth significantly, it is a win for Georgia. B) The Russian win actually frees Saakashvigli's hand somewhat, now that he has fulfilled his pledge (somewhat) to get the territory back, he can focus on the economy. C) If international peacekeepers do come, it would be a huge win for Georgia, because the Russian peacekeepers are anything but.

As for your statement "all the former Soviet satellites are now even more united in their loathing of Russia than before," I think you are vastly overstating this... Belarus is the prime example and has essentially returned to the fold. Ukraine is much more mixed than ardent Ukrainian nationalists would have it... there is very real friction between Ukraine and Russia, but as recent elections have shown, pro-Russian candidates have been at the very least competitive. There are also of course large numbers of Russians in Ukraine. I am much less "up" on central Asia, but certainly the latest gas accord also evidence much much more nuance than you suggest. Of course, Poland and the Baltics are pushing away from Russia, but this began long before the current crisis and even before the nationalist revival under Putin.

Russia doesn't much care about Europe's condemnation, because it knows that Europe is dependent on Russia for oil and gas and nothing is going to change that in the foreseeable future.

This incident is another reason we need to engage other countries and stop this "our way or we villify you" policy.

Are we really planning to go to war with Russia over Georgia or the Ukraine?

Obama will make everybody talk, with the help of the "surrender monkey" Sarkozy. He talked, ceasefire happened. We only know how to kill people and blow shit up.

And now, Saak is saying "there is no ceasefire," and the Russians are digging in around S. Ossetia and Abkhazia.
.

i don't think this over at all. There are reports that Russia is still moving in Georgia.

Does anyone else get the feeling that Putin is trying to grab as much as he can before that idiot Bush leaves office? After all, either Obama or McCain would vastly improve the basic intelligence of the commander in chief slot, regardless of their policies, thereby complicating efforts by Putin to increase Russian power.

Look for pressure to increase on Ukraine soon.

i don't think this over at all. There are reports that Russia is still moving in Georgia.

Does anyone else get the feeling that Putin is trying to grab as much as he can before that idiot Bush leaves office? After all, either Obama or McCain would vastly improve the basic intelligence of the commander in chief slot, regardless of their policies, thereby complicating efforts by Putin to increase Russian power.

Look for pressure to increase on Ukraine soon.

The current news claims a column of Russian vehicles have headed out of Gori in the direction on Tblisi. The Russians claim they have discovered an arms supply, and are going there. It was claimed Russia soldiers in the convey were shouting Tblisi, Tblisi.

Its hard to know what their real intentions are. Maybe they plan to physically depose the Georgian government, and destroy its military capability before settling back to Abkhazia and S Ossetia.

"The killing of thousands of people in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia will turn out to be a landmark moment in post-Soviet Russia's relations with the West. Friday's Georgian attack on South Ossetia was intended as a provocation. The attack killed 13 Russian soldiers and injured 150 and took over 2,000 civilian lives, mostly Russian citizens. The South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali has been all but razed. Over 30,000 refugees have crossed the Russian border." ...

"Moscow proposed that an agreement could be signed committing all protagonists to commit to non-use of force in settling differences. But Tbilisi wouldn't have such an agreement. Nor would Washington prevail on Tbilisi to accept one. Not only that, Washington closed its eyes when clandestine supplies of weapons began pouring into Tbilisi. In July, the US Department of Defense funded a military exercise with Georgia. In retrospect, the turning point came when US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Tbilisi last month." ...

"Bush said he is "deeply concerned" and that Russian intervention is a "dangerous escalation ... endangering regional peace". He added, "We call for an end to the Russian bombings, and a return by the parties to the status quo of August 6."

But at the outbreak of violence, Russia had tried to have the United Nations Security Council issue a statement calling on Georgia and South Ossetia to immediately lay down weapons. However, Washington was disinterested. As the Russian ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, put it, there was an "absence of political will" within the Security Council. It seems Washington expected that a quid pro quo could be worked out as well on a new UN Security Council resolution imposing tougher sanctions on Iran, which the US has been pressing for, and Russia hitherto resisting."...

Asia Times

As usual, the story is quite a bit more complicated than reported in MSM. And, as usual, the US doesn't come out looking good. I urge you to give this a look for a larger view than reported by MSM. It looks like the US may have been trying to provoke Russia into a military response. And, btw, with this fuller background at hand, I'm not happy that Obama has pretty much taken the McCain/Bush position. But I guess he had no choice, given the predominant news slant in the US.

We'll probably hear a lot of hand-wringing on our side about Obama's statement in favor of NATO membership for Georgia. I don't think NATO membership would be a good idea, but Obama's statement doesn't bother me much. For one thing, he doesn't really call for membership but for a "Membership Action Plan," a bit like appointing a commission to study a problem as a means of getting the problem off the agenda. In any case, he pretty much has to look tough on this one or be vulnerable to two months of "soft on the Russians" ads.

>"depose the Georgian government, and destroy its military capability before settling back to Abkhazia and S Ossetia."

-----------

depose the Hussein government, and destroy its military capability before settling back to the Green Zone and designated territorial bases.

Oh, great. Vikings, semen...now I'm gonna have this song going through my head all day...

Sperm, sperm, sperm, sperm,
Sperm, sperm, sperm, sperm,
Sperm, sperm, sperm, sperm...
Lovely sperm, wonderful sperm...

Virginia, I agree with what you say. Obama had to take the position he did given the upcoming election and yes, I noticed the difference between calling for NATO membership and calling for a membership action plan. Still, it won't be much easier to take 'soft' positions on foreign policy questions if and when he's prez. And I'm not even sure he has the inclination to do so, despite his obvious intelligence. Time will tell.

Its a Russian win. Several important lines in the sand all crossed: put the west back in its box, smacked down the near abroad and enhanced potential control of energy. What more do you want?

Put another way. The west has been push, push on Russia's borders and thought it could do this with no pushback. Very silly.

Europe is doubly stupid because it allowed the Americans to set the agenda and pace. Very silly.

Most disappointing is that the two US presidential candidates, both of them, i.e. two of them, are working off some kind of post USSR triumphalist script that bears so little resemblance to reality.

Wake up guys. This is important.

PS 1. I am pretty sure that the Russians did not have much in mind but basic management when they started but as the days went on they found themselves exploring new and exciting possibilities.

PS 2. All of this affair is down to a failure of American foreign policy. Totally, abysmally, stupidly bad show all around.

Thank you America.

BTW. Where is Bush Jnr right now?

Of course, Russia's broken the cease-fire, probably as a "nudge" to Georgia to sign on the dotted line ASAP. Did somebody from McCain's staff write Finn's piece?

Every time I see a report which originates in any way from the US, I get suspicious. For me the idea that former members of the eastern block should be in NATO is simply a perpetuation of the stupid and agressive attempt to place a military ring aroud the Russians. As far as I can see, most of the former eastern soviet block countries are still being run by thugs, it's just that now they're capitalist thugs. From where I sit, the Georgians started this latest round of bullshit, and they deserve everything they got.

the Georgians started this latest round of bullshit, and they deserve everything they got.

"Israel supplying Georgia with some US$200 million worth of equipment since 2000."

"From where I sit, the Georgians started this latest round of bullshit, and they deserve everything they got."
__________________

Newest information indicates that the Georgians might not have started this round. It appears now that the early reports of what happened were the result of a deliberate Russian infowar tactic to obfuscate the chronology. We do know that South Ossetian militia had been shelling Georgian villages and military positions off and on for some weeks, with no Georgian response. The deployment and jump off of the Russian armored division had to be begun well in advance of any Georgian provocation and the Russians probably crossed the border ahead of the Georgians. It is now almost certain the the numbers of Ossetian civilian casualties were greatly inflated, which figures - not only would the Russians have coordinated their movements with the Ossetians, but the Georgians would have been concentrating on the Russian targets, not civilians.

All in all, a pretty slick campaign by the Russians, so far, at least. And blaming the Georgians is exactly the position the Russians hope some in the West will take. Among other things, they hope to have a free hand the next time they initiate a similar move, elsewhere.

It appears to be working - the lede of Georgia "guilt" is now firmly established and people are already turning away from the event.

Re the post about Israeli military sales to Georgia, the cited article says:

"Even though weapons transfers were modest in scope, Russian diplomats began increasingly relaying to Israel their annoyance over its military aid to Georgia, including the special forces training provided by security experts. Israel decided about a year ago to limit military exports to defensive equipment and training."

Pretty innocuous stuff. But then, for some, any Israeli involvement, anywhere, is prima facie evidence of evil and certainly enough to dismiss the whole idea of Russian responsibility.

Gori is the not only the key link in Georgia from east to west, but also the interchange with the sole highway into South Ossetia. It appears that the Russians are looking to provide security against another invasion from Georgia into the disputed territory.

Let us also note two historical relics from the old USSR; there was a seperate Abkhaz SSR which was not part of the Georgia SSR. Further, South Ossetia was an Autonomous Region, also not under control of the Georgia SSR.

Final note, when Israel invades Lebanon because of some provocation the US doesn't seem to mind what the IDF does nor how long they stay.

Hypocrisy and ignorance, thy name is neo-con.

"Gori is the not only the key link in Georgia from east to west, but also the interchange with the sole highway into South Ossetia. It appears that the Russians are looking to provide security against another invasion from Georgia into the disputed territory."
_____________________

One would think an entire Russian armored division would be enough deterrence for the nonce, especially with the Georgian army withdrawn to defensive positions around Tblisi. So...what are the Russian armored elements doing in Gori that will provide future security for South Ossetia that they couldn't do from the inside Ossetia?