I guess this means we shall see even more chest pounding, struting around and mouthing off by Bush Handlers, Inc.

"...playin with matches in a pool of gasoline..." - Swamp Mama Johnson

The Georgians, if they had any sense, would tell the Russians that they can have South Ossetia and Abkhazia. They're far more trouble than they're worth. Georgia's borders after the loss of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia will be no more defensible against Russia than they were before.

And Georgia could stop listening to McCain.

hummmm...just who fell into whose net? I sense that Putin is making a grave error if he ventures to keep his soldiers outside of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The atmosphere is becoming poisonous, and I'm actually shocked to see Merkel call for Gergia's inclusion into NATO, (What the Hell?!?), and Sarkozy and France saying: France was unapologetic. "We have to invent a new language with regard to Russia. That is what the European Union is trying to do,"

Britain is still none too happy about the poisoning of Col. Alexander Litvinenko in London with radioactive polonium-210 (No one likes radioactive stuff floating around this way...it isn't done, it's offensive). Ukraine is none too happy...I seriously think Putin is over playing his hand in Gerogia.

I predicted when this started that Georgia would be shorn of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. I should be happy that I was correct, but the Russians seem to be trying to even go further.

Not good. Most especially not good for Russia.

Just one example, What if the North Ossetians would like to form a country with the newly liberated South Ossetia? Once you start redrawing borders...well heck, Russia's can be re-drawn also.

I am also sensing that this crisis is feeding on itself...Russia would like to demonstrate and/or reconstruct its sphere of influence...but everyone bordering Russia isn't be be cowed, but rather are drawing away in revullsion.

Russian tanks rolling into Prague, (1968) and Budapest, (1956), stir deeply held institutional memories and seeing them roll even into almost a non-country, (sorry Georgia) may have very bad long term consequences for Russia.

That what is left of Georgia may actually get into NATO, something I strongly oppose, is really a rather shocking proposition.

I hope cooler heads re-think this. (But Ukraine? Sure, let them in now).

Best Wishes, Traveller

However long it takes. I have no problem with a hundred years. If you have a timetable, then you are aiding the enemy.

"The atmosphere is becoming poisonous, and I'm actually shocked to see Merkel call for Gergia's inclusion into NATO, (What the Hell?!?), and Sarkozy and France saying: France was unapologetic. "We have to invent a new language with regard to Russia. That is what the European Union is trying to do,""

At the same time, NATO is refusing to set out an actual blueprint for Georgian membership, meaning this is just bluster. Saying "someday Georgia will be in NATO" without a blueprint is like me saying "someday I will be a millionaire" and my plan is to play the Lottery - it is fundamentally unserious.

I think we should give this a few more days to come to a conclusion. Clearly, mistrust is high on both sides. A year from now nobody will care if Russia took 2 days or 10 days to withdraw after an agreement was signed as long as they withdraw within a couple of weeks of having signed an agreement.

If Russia continues to stay longer than another week while it continues to claim to withdraw, we know it has no intention of honoring the agreement it signed. A few more days before coming to that conclusion.

Clearly, the mice feel they must bell the cat. But who’s to do it and how?

It's just lucky that Condi speaks Russian, isn't it?

BTW, has anyone actually ever heard her speak Russian? How about English?

Note -

The Russians have paid pensions and provided monetary support to Abkhasians for years. The Russians do not require the Abkhasians to pay taxes, nor to perform military service required of other citizens.

Why? - Because the Russians are essentially purchasing loyalty .. there's your "saviors"...

The Abkhasians don't like Georgians - of course not ... they "ethnically cleansed" 200,000 Georgians out of Abkhasia in order to create a majority.. which was then supported and funded by the Russians.

( Stalin brought the Georgians in to Abkhasia 50 years earlier or so ).

Let's not pretend this relationship is clear, such that Russians are "right" ... or that Georgians are "right" ... it's not so.

This IS a clear powerplay by the Russians who have bribed their way to becoming the "savior" of separatists - that they sponsored in to becoming separatists in the first place.

That much is true.

But, does Georgia, a country with not 10 years of democratic tradition, a country that suppressed opposition radio not 2 years ago, merit entrance in to NATO? No. It doesn't. Does Ukraine ... a country that may through democratic means ally itself with Russia because 1/2 of its population is essentially Russian merit inclusion? No. It doesn't.

The Europeans should be meeting to create an emergency plan to rid themselves of their reliance on Russian energy... just as we should to rid ourselves from middle-eastern oil...

shoulda-woulda-coulda ...

How dare the US criticize Russia for retaliating against Georgia's aggression in Ossetia when the Bush Administration said nary a word when Israel, in attacking Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, went on to bomb large areas of the country, laying waste to its vital infrastructures? As far as we know to date, Russia, at least, did not blanket Georgia with cluster bombs, as Israel did to Lebanon, at first denying it (just as the US falsely denied supplying them to the Israelis). These were scattered about and continued killing innocent civilians, many of them children, trying to clean up the debris long after Israel finally withdrew. An Israel pilot was on record at the time (interviewed on Democracy Now) saying he refused to fly missions over Lebanon because the targets he was directed to bomb were of populated areas with no military installations of any kind. I'm sick and tired of our multi-standard approach to international relations. Then there's Iraq. We are the last people in the world in a position to point fingers of condemnation at anybody!

Expect constant war under John McCain. In fact, expect WWIII, if John McCain is elected.

When the only tool in your toolbox is a hammer, everything looks like a nail!

Kenji:

The Russians think Condi Rice is STUPID! Click here for details.

TCD

We might want to make a distinction between damage done by Georgian forces after they tried to take control of Tskhinvali, and that done by the shelling (done by both sides) that had been going on for a while previously. Residents of the area probably do not make this distinction.

What exactly is a short range ballistic missile? The Russians are moving them into Georgia to defend against Georgian attacks? Hardly.

Most apparent in all of this is that Mikheil Saakashvili is a world class idiot and oaf. This prompts the question was he led astray by a more prominent knucklehead we all know and loathe (or love, if you're similarly deranged)?

you cited / quoted the King of Hackish Propaganda michael gordon .... oh gawd.

we actually groaned out loud last night when his breathless Russian missile story showed up on line - hey nyt !!! keep the usa military stenographer in Iraq !!!

and how is judy judy judy miller doing these days ??

we just knew you would work michael gordon into a post today. just knew it.

bleah.

Completely off topic, referring to Kevin's earlier post about the uncertainty of polls - take a look at the scatter diagram at

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

(from Paul Krugman's post of 8/18) This will give an idea of the uncertainty of individual polls.

In his commentary today (in my paper), the doughy pantload Jonah Goldberg is pitching what I figure is the official right-ding meme: Russia just sneaked into Georgia during the distraction of the Olympics, with no mention of Georgia's original move into those disputed areas just before Russia *responded* with a counter-move (albeit an over-reaction "See my sole?" Putin taking advantage of.)

Pantload is of course using this to paint Obama as not being ready for international prime-time, even though Obama's response was near perfect considering the actual circumstances. I wonder what the MSMemia will do about this.

Little mention out there about McCain's possible Georgia manipulations through his neoconish top foreign policy advisor and former lobbyist *for Georgia* Randy Scheunemann (see top of http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_08/014302.php#1313448 for more and links.)

Finally, Kevin: I'm disappointed in you for not saying more about Scheunemann/Georgia, and blowing off the idea that "we" stimulated Georgia to push into S.O. etc. - BTW what should "we" really mean, considering the creepy interplay of factions like Cheneyites in what is only presumptively "our" government at this time?

"The Russians, with an estimated 10,000 troops and 150 tanks in Georgia, show no intention of withdrawing the entire invasion force, and plan to leave troops in Georgia proper, beyond the two pro-Russian breakaway provinces."

Let's just say the Russians have committed themselves to a withdrawal horizon, not a timeline.....

Also, Goldberg's shameless BSing to dump on Obama tells me that Kevin's overly generous postulate in the "CHEAT SHEET" Post, that the conservative meme will be:
Shorter conservative view: "Yes, Saakashvili acted recklessly by sending in troops first, but...."
is false. They will just snow over the initial Georgian provocation entirely by pretending that it never happened at all. Folks, Kevin: by now you need to know and act like it, that the Right will not put forth a reasonable and honest good-faith pitch. They will say whatever it takes to win over the emotional prejudices and bully-admiring instincts of the worst of the electorate, to get what they want.

Yeah, well Tom Lassiter should know that "most buildings" were still standing in Pristina before the NATO bombing of Serbia started as well. "Most buildings" were still standing in London after the blitz, for that matter.

Again, without the quick Russian response, who knows what would have happened to the South Ossetians? No one seems to want to answer this obvious question because it reveals the ugly side of our darling Saakashvili. But obviously, without Russia there, the Ossetians would all be in refugee camps in North Ossetia by now (or dead). That was Saakashvili's real goal here, the integration of South Ossetia into Georgia pretty much requires the removal of the Ossetians. The whole thing makes absolutely no sense otherwise. So, yeah, Saakashvili's a real nice guy to have as your "ally".

Russian troops are staying in Gori? What a shocker. I figured they'd just cede the military high ground and let Georgia re-place their artillery within striking distance of Tskhinvali. What don't you people understand about wars?

orwell: Whew! Good thing congress is on vacation or else we might actually be doing something.

oil prices are lower than when congress went on vacation..

so...

we can thank congress...right?

By holding Gori, Russia cuts Georgian in half and eliminates Tbilisi's control of Western Georgia. On NPR this morning it was reported that the railroad bridge across a deep gorge parallel to the road through Gori was destroyed. There is now rail and unblocked no road between east and west Goergia.

The Russians said that they would protect South Ossetia, where they have been handing out Russian passports for several years to South Ossetians, and they would hold parts of Georgia they need for "Security." (Read "Gori" and the transportation routed through Gori.) They have not protected Georgians living in South Ossetia from marauding bands of South Ossetians who have followed the Russian troops burning out Georgians. The Russian are moving missile launchers into South Ossetia.

Holding Gori effectively dismembers Georgia.

Google maps does not show the road net or towns in Georgia and will not give distances between cities there, but the distance between Tskhinvali in South Ossetia and Gori in Georgia is less than half a day's tank drive. The Russians intend to destroy Georgia as a unitary state, and holding Gori will do that.

Well, goes around, comes around, eh?

Considering the billions we've spent building bases in Iraq, and our support for Israel's recent attack on Lebanon, it's hard to be too surprised when the Russians dig in a few armored divisions.

And, agreed, a nuclear war looks somewhere between probable and certain if McCain gets in. He's already making Bush look like a basically decent and moderately intelligent person- not an easy task.

You wouldn't begrudge the Russians a few "residual forces" in Gori, would you? What if there are some terrorists to chase

Of course Russia won't leave Georgia when Bush & Rice are demanding that they pull out, nor should they.

I have to repeat objections I've already expressed. The moral basis for our complaints against the actions of the Russians in Georgia evaporated when we knocked over the government of Iraq in contravention to international law. Sorry folks, but the good ol USA has done an awful lot to destroy the basic standards of the conduct of nation states during this decade, and we can't now really object when other nations decide to play by our new rules.

rick b

here is a map

http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/georgia.pdf

Kevin, doesn't the tone and tenor of this comments section trouble you sometimes? Maybe Saakashvili is a hothead, but the reports I read say he was reacting to six Georgian policemen killed by Ossetians, and the Russians have been goading on this conflict for years. The commentors on this thread seem to demand a level of pristine moral dexterity that even Jimmy Carter couldn't attain before we offer help.

loki--
Perhaps the strident tone is due to the absurd morally superior way this thing is being reported here. If the occupation of Gori is "overreaction" by Russia to the shelling of Tshkinvali (your obvious stance), then surely as hell the wholesale shelling of Tskhinvali is even more of an "overreaction" to the killing of Georgian policemen. You can't have it both ways. OSCE reports going back to the nineties show many incidents of armed gangs shooting policemen (by the way, the KLA in Kosovo also shot police)...never before did they elicit that kind of response...

This was a war of choice started by Saakashvili in order to change the status quo and make South Ossetia a part of unitary Georgia. Unlike his American defenders, he himself always proudly admitted this was the goal of the operation. That's all you need to know. Horrors always happen in war on both sides. That's why it's never a good idea to start them.

To me, the comment section here provides both sides of the debate -- with intelligence.

Thanks to all who have contributed to the discussion.

Rumsfeld would approve of everything Russia is doing if it was America doing it.

Thanks, Ed,

That's the road map that Google shows covering the terrain and satellite maps of all the countries surrounding Georgia. The distance between Tskhinvali (capital of the province of South Ossetia) and Gori is 25 miles. That's less than an hour by tank, even on mountain roads.

The Russian troops can sleep in Tskhinvali, drive less than an hour to work in Gori and man the roadblocks that dismember Georgia. There is absolutely nothing the West can do about is, just as there was nothing that could be done when the Soviets raised the Berlin Wall.

The idea that the West can somehow "punish" the Russians for protecting South Ossetia and Abkhazia and dismembering Georgia is a fantasy. Don't forget that after WW I, the USSR cut off all trade with it's neighbors until well after WW II. That was before Europe became dependent on Russian gas when Winter hits.

Russia is sitting in the catbird seat in Georgia and will use the example of Georgia, together with their monopoly on European gas supples to cause all of East Europe suddenly become very meek and compliant.

Notice that Turkey did not let America warships into the Black Sea to support Georgia and the Ukraine? Notice how close Turkey is to Russia, and notice that they just got a lot closer very fast.

Russia would not have made the move into Georgia in 2001 when America was still the acknowledged world superpower. Then Bush/Cheney invaded Iraq and proved that any piss-ant bunch of guerrillas could tie the US military down and prevent them from doing anything else in the world.

Our image as superpower has been badly eroded by Bush/Cheney, while the higher prices of oil and gas have made Russia back into a major regional power much like Iran is. Both shift are to our disadvantage.

Bush has hollowed out our military to a degree not seen since after WW I, and has similarly hollowed out our economy by selling it off to bankers and shipping American production capabilities to the rest of the world where labor costs are lower - with no regard to productivity. Building a more productive American labor force would have required a government plan and more taxes.

Based on the right-wing fantasy of the American permanent superpower, the NeoCons have been pushing all the eastern European nations towards ignoring Russia and what the Russian leaders want.

Led by the Bush administration and empty rhetoric Russia was being isolated from those around it - the "Near abroad." "Baiting the Bear" as it is being called. Sort of stupid when you are in the same pit with the bear as Georgia and the Ukraine are.

What we are watching in Georgia right now is an announcement of a major power shift, one that has already occurred and which sharply downgrades the ability of the American government to project power around the world either politically or militarily. China will also jump on the bandwagon as long as they can avoid getting hurt economically. That will get even easier as they continue to hold onto our debt.

This set of American disasters is a direct result of the Reagan Revolution (which assembled the conservative Republican electoral alliance) and the conservative movement (which has pushed the ideology.) The free-marketers have funded it and the social conservatives have manned the trenches. Bush/Cheney have simply pushed the idiocy further than anyone with the slightest good sense would have believed possible.

Many commenters here seem to be awfully more interested in the question what hypocrisy this whole thing might betray in their Republican opponents than in, you know - the Georgians. Or the Ossetians, for that matter. Or the entire issue of a resurgent Russia eager to subjugate its direct neighbours again.

No, by all means, let's not discuss those actual issues. The only thing we're interested in is - which American politician does this make look bad? Or good? How does this tally on the Dems vs Reps scorecard? How does this prove more of Bush's guilts and mistakes?

I know, I'm being unfair to the fair-sized minority actually interested in the local/regional situation, posters like Traveller, Jackifus, Rick B. I dont read the comments here much, so I have no idea what their political loyalties are, but better still, I couldnt tell from their post here either. But jesus, many of the others?

Hell, I loathe Bush too, and the Republicans. But it would be nice if more of you could for once muster looking beyond your domestic politics and considering the impact of the actual events at hand. Both on Georgia (or the Ossetians and Abkhazians for that matter) and on the former Soviet Union / Eastern Europe as a whole. Thanks, from Budapest.

Many commenters here seem to be awfully more interested in the question what hypocrisy this whole thing might betray in their Republican opponents than in, you know - the Georgians.

It isn't about hypocrisy, it is about the model created over the past few years, not just by Bush but by Clinton/Albright as well.

Secondly the press is eating up the Bush administration spin on this in a way reminiscent of the run up to Iraq and for example the Judith Miller episode.

The Bush administration's support of Georgia's provocations is the root cause of this crisis and the violence and that needs to be said.

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