August 22, 2008
EXPECTATIONS GAME.... With the Democratic convention poised to begin, the McCain campaign has begun spinning furiously, ratcheting up expectations to a comical level. From a memo released this afternoon:
Obama's stadium address on Thursday -- the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have A Dream" speech -- will result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage. On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama's place in history. For example, The Associated Press today published an article comparing the historic nature of the addresses -- a week before Obama's speech. This coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls.
We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.
First, by hitting media coverage before it happens, the McCain campaign obviously hopes to discourage reporters from noting the fact that Obama's speech falls on the anniversary of the MLK speech. I suspect this won't work.
Second, trying to set expectations for an absurd 15-point bounce is overkill. These guys might as well have "predicted" a 70-point bounce -- no one seriously believes 15 points is realistic, so the memo comes across as more than a little excessive.
Regardless, don't miss the Obama campaign's response: "Presidential races are close, and we expect this one to be no different. But they should figure out how to spin the fact that John McCain owns a dozen houses and thinks the fundamentals of our economy are strong before trying to spin our convention."
I get the sense Team Obama is starting to take message discipline seriously.
—Steve Benen 5:00 PM
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Uh oh. Sometime between the commercial released today and this statement, the Obama campaign found five more McCain houses!
Posted by: doubtful on August 22, 2008 at 5:09 PM | PERMALINK
Weren't we all talking about Jerome Corsi just a few minutes ago? Whatever happened to that? Verdict on the wingnut smear job du jour: fail. Obama's communications team is an awesome communications team.
Posted by: pinson on August 22, 2008 at 5:12 PM | PERMALINK
This McCain memo is yet another Rovian ploy to bully the traditional media. It worked for them when Obama went to Europe and the Middle East (e.g. for no apparent reason, Obama is "presumptuous"), and they're at it again.
We'll see if the AP/Halpern crowd continues to stamp their bylines on McCain's press releases.
Posted by: CJ on August 22, 2008 at 5:16 PM | PERMALINK
Drudge has the headline "DRAMA: Obama prepares to name running mate.." with a pic of Obama and Biden (the one I am tepidly rooting for.) Does Drudge know something?
Posted by: Neil B ☼ on August 22, 2008 at 5:16 PM | PERMALINK
Feingold should be embarrassed about his comments on CNN yesterday. Fortunately McCain is providing daily talking points - like the entourage to pick up Starbucks coffee today. Can't he just buy beans and drink it at home?
But I won't be surprised if the Prez does something to upset Obama's cart - start a war? Encourage Cheney to have a minor heart attack?
Posted by: jen f on August 22, 2008 at 5:19 PM | PERMALINK
Drudge doesn't know anything, they're just guessing, like usual.
PS - I wanna see Steve's kitty!
Posted by: Crissa on August 22, 2008 at 5:19 PM | PERMALINK
So what's the line on the over/under on Obama's bounce in the polls that everyone agrees he should get from the having the Dems on full parade for the week?
My guess is less than 7%, which quickly fades. At which point, the media speculation that Obama can't win the general election will only increase.
Posted by: Chicounsel on August 22, 2008 at 5:20 PM | PERMALINK
Message discipline has been the Democrat's achilles heel the last two presidential cycles. They need to keep his surrogates and the REST of the Democrats on board. Far too often in 2000 and 2004 campaign surrogates and DNC spokespeople were talking at cross purposes to each other. If Obama's campaign can maintain this level of disciple until November he's got a good shot.
And They are finally starting to think in terms of soundbites. Easily digestible nuggets that the media people can remember and repeat.
Posted by: thorin-1 on August 22, 2008 at 5:22 PM | PERMALINK
convention expectations
Here's an intense hope that Hillary will come through for Obama in her speech and in the handling of the placement of her name in nomination. No roll-call! It would be detrimental and tiresome to have 50 state delegation leaders extol their state and the merits of Hillary Clinton. So she needs to forestall the roll-call by directing her delegates to save their votes for Obama.
But I'm not too hopeful. Her speech in Florida in support of Obama was quite tepid and this excerpt indicates that she still focuses on herself:
“I need a president who will work with me, who will be there for the people I care about, that I get up and fight for every single day.”
homer www.altara.blogspot.com
Posted by: altara on August 22, 2008 at 5:22 PM | PERMALINK
All's that comes out of Team McBush, and McBush himself, are lies, smears, filth, and racism. What is the most astonishing element though are is that anyone listens to him and them. When the last time anyone has heard McBush actually talk about any of his policies ? Or the last time any commercial of his talked about his policies ? And all at the same time of issuing one smear, one lie, more filth, more propaganda to the point that even certain people in the Corporate Media have not begun to point out this bullshit and even question whether he has the actual temperment to be a President. Yet, 'somehow', according to the Corporate created polls this is exactly why he has now gained in those polls ? So, if that were true, which it just can't be, it would then mean that even though the Corporate Media itself is point out these lies, smears, and the rest .. meaning is public knowledge, that the average American is listening to these lies, etc, and then saying "yes, that what makes me want to vote for McBush", "yes, i want to vote for a guy who is lying to me, bullshitting me, creating smears that I know not to be true, that's the one I want to vote for " .. the manipulation of public perception by creating these fake polls is evil .. simply fucking evil
Posted by: stormskies on August 22, 2008 at 5:24 PM | PERMALINK
I want kitties too - Hilzoy has some!
Posted by: lemma on August 22, 2008 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK
I want kitties too - Hilzoy has some!
Posted by: lemma on August 22, 2008 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK
Obama won't get a bounce out of the convention. By the time polls catch up, the Republican convention will have already started.
Posted by: fostert on August 22, 2008 at 5:30 PM | PERMALINK
Steve, Prepare to be badgered about the kitties. It is a service you have inherited from Kevin.
Posted by: jen f on August 22, 2008 at 5:30 PM | PERMALINK
it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment.
McCain's team is expecting a 15-point bounce of their own out of the Republican convention? Do tell? Is that a point for each Republican congresscritter brave enough to show up? Does Norm Coleman's hair count as a congresscritter of it's own?
Posted by: Shalimar on August 22, 2008 at 5:32 PM | PERMALINK
"""no one seriously believes 15 points is realistic"""...it's not supposed to be and man is this trick old. The point is to manufacture an ob obtainable standard and then rail about Obama not measuring up. Like I said, this is very tired, thread bare, trite, and hackneyed stuff.
Richard
Posted by: Richard on August 22, 2008 at 5:33 PM | PERMALINK
This reminds me of the Bush team in 2004 saying that John Kerry is the best debater since Cicero. It was baloney then; it's baloney now. But that wont stop the press from running with it.
Posted by: TG Chicago on August 22, 2008 at 5:34 PM | PERMALINK
From the McCain campaign:
"It has been Barack Obama's trademark to give great speeches on high profile occasions. We and the press expect that he will do the same with his historic acceptance speech on Thursday.
"A resonable expectation is that Sen. Obama's speech will cause combatants all over the world to lay down their arms and permanently renounce violence. We also expect that the speech will inspire some young scientist to invent something that will solve the energy shortage and that it will inspire a doctor to find a universal cure for cancer.
"If thoses things don't happen before the beginning of the Republican convention, then Sen. Obama's speech should be considered a disappointment."
Posted by: SteveT on August 22, 2008 at 5:39 PM | PERMALINK
Kevin, you ignorant slut! Oops, sorry; Wrong site.
Posted by: Michael7843853 on August 22, 2008 at 5:48 PM | PERMALINK
Second, trying to set expectations for an absurd 15-point bounce is overkill.
Agree it's incredulous coming from the McCain campaign, but if past elections are any guide, a 15-point bounce is very possible.
However, if the McCain campaign really believes that, they also must think they'll get an even bigger bounce if they're still going to be competitive in November.
So how big a bounce are they predicting for McCain? +20? +25? Maybe some intrepid reporter/blogger can pose that question to the McCain campaign.
Posted by: has407 on August 22, 2008 at 5:49 PM | PERMALINK
Anyone doubt that Obama will decimate forgetful McCain in their scheduled "debates"? It may be painful to watch...
Posted by: Monzie on August 22, 2008 at 5:52 PM | PERMALINK
The coverage will be 'impenetrable'? I think they mean non-stop. Or something. But not 'impossible to understand'.
Posted by: DNS on August 22, 2008 at 6:00 PM | PERMALINK
"Fortunately McCain is providing daily talking points - like the entourage to pick up Starbucks coffee today. Can't he just buy beans and drink it at home?" - jen f
Hey, my Daughter and Son-in-Law work at Starbucks. Don't depress the Service Economy!
"But I won't be surprised if the Prez does something to upset Obama's cart ... Encourage Cheney to have a minor heart attack?" - jen f
Somehow I don't think reminding America that old white men who look like the crypt keeper have heart attacks is really going to do John "Zinger" McC*nt any good.
Steve T joked (I assume): "From the McCain campaign:
"A resonable expectation is that Sen. Obama's speech will cause combatants all over the world to lay down their arms and permanently renounce violence."
Considering that John "Zinger" McC*nt is still trying to get the Russians to leave Georgia I doubt they will bring that up.
Can you imagine the Russians' reply to a personal appeal (threat) from McC*nt: "I'm sorry Senator, but we have jingoistic nationalistic politicians here in Russia who say we can't leave Georgia on your sayso because that would be we "Lost" and left without "Honor", so you're going to have to wait until they say we can leave in "Victory", whatever that means."
Orange
Posted by: Lance on August 22, 2008 at 6:25 PM | PERMALINK
Well done Steve! Thanks for changing the format. I was tempted to find a new blog as I could not bare the old format here. A good leader listens to his subjetcs your majesty.
Posted by: z on August 22, 2008 at 6:43 PM | PERMALINK
I would love to see Team Obama roll out of the Convention with a 15-point bounce, especially after the McMachiavellis jokingly predicted it on the presumption that it was comically unattainable. After all---watching Bushylvanians explode like Mr. Creosote is a favorite past-time of mine....
Posted by: Steve on August 22, 2008 at 6:45 PM | PERMALINK
John McCain is a millionaire playboy, looking for a new hobby. He's too old for women, so he thought he'd run for President. If he were elected, he'd get bored with that too, just like he got bored with his first wife.
Posted by: bob on August 22, 2008 at 6:52 PM | PERMALINK
DNS: I guess they mean that the coverage will be "impenetrable" in the same way that (for example) fog and forests can be. I.e., they're complaining that Obama's message will obscure theirs.
Posted by: Cervantes on August 22, 2008 at 7:56 PM | PERMALINK
Apropos of nothing, just ranting.
From McCain spokesman Brian Rogers responding to the kafuffle about McSame not knowing how many houses he owns: "Does a guy who worries about the price of arugula and thinks regular people 'cling' to guns and religion in the face of economic hardship really want to have a debate about who's in touch with regular Americans?"
Can someone with the Obama campaign please tell him to put the Arugula thing to bed? Obama was discussing the price of arugula with an AMERICAN FARMER! That farmer is probably concerned with the price of arugula because it pays his MORTGAGE. McCain's lackeys are probably hurting arugula sales and making that farmer's life more difficult. Second, arugula is LETTUCE, it goes in a SALAD. It's not some exotic fish egg or internal organ. Third, arugula is DELICIOUS.
I'm done.
Posted by: Rob on August 22, 2008 at 9:02 PM | PERMALINK
Rob wrote "Second, arugula is LETTUCE, it goes in a SALAD. It's not some exotic fish egg or internal organ. Third, arugula is DELICIOUS."
Hey, real men only eat Iceberg lettuce, of which they remain ignorant of the distinct name, calling it only "lettuce".
Personally, I tend to buy Green Leaf when making salads. The darker the green the healthier the lettuce. Iceberg is almost worthless as food.
Orange
Posted by: Lance on August 22, 2008 at 9:21 PM | PERMALINK
What Richard said. The 15-point figure is only being cited so that anything less will seem like Obama fell short of expectations. It is indeed an old dodge, but unfortunately, it will work - because lots of American voters are either dumb or begging to be tricked.
Posted by: Mark on August 22, 2008 at 9:43 PM | PERMALINK
Obama said that? About himself? Got a link?
Posted by: Mark on August 22, 2008 at 10:44 PM | PERMALINK
Obama said that? About himself? Got a link? -- Mark, @ 10:44
It's the head-to-ass link. Can't be uncoupled, much less sent.
Lemon
Posted by: ex-libra on August 22, 2008 at 11:26 PM | PERMALINK