August 26, 2008
KUDLOW BLAMES THE MIGHTY DEMS.... Perusing the headlines yesterday afternoon, and noting that the stock market was having yet another rough day, I knew it was only a matter of time before some nut connected a drop in the Dow Jones to the Democratic convention.
I should have checked "The Corner" first; Larry Kudlow had already gone there. (via Anonymous Liberal)
Are the Denver Dems downing the stock market today? The Dow is off 230 points, starting right from the get-go. So-called market analysts are blaming financials and the credit crunch as they always do. But there's more.
Obama and Biden gave us plenty of class warfare in their Springfield, Ill., get together on Saturday. Tax the rich. Redistribute income and wealth. Go after all those corporate meanies. Trade protection. Card-check for the Unions to stop secret elections.... With the Denver Dems strutting their stuff, this could be a bumpy week for stocks.
It's a reminder for all of us to feel sorry for those writers tasked with writing parodies. How do you poke fun at those who excel at making themselves appear ridiculous?
Three quick thoughts here. First, in our reality, the market decline yesterday wasn't exactly a mystery.
Second, on the day George W. Bush was sworn into office in January 2001, the Dow Jones stood at 10,732.46. As I'm typing, it stands at 11,427.44. Under Reagan, the Dow went up 148%. Under Clinton, it grew 187%. After nearly eight years, Bush is barely breaking even. Blaming an Obama/Biden campaign rally isn't exactly a compelling explanation.
And third, it amazes me just how much credit Kudlow is willing to give the Democratic Party. As the conservative media personality sees it, Dems have the power to move markets before even starting their national convention, simply by giving a few speeches.
Those Democrats sure are mighty, aren't they?
—Steve Benen 10:45 AM
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Kudlow's just scared the mean old Democrats are going to tax his income more and he'll have less money for cocaine.
Posted by: TR on August 26, 2008 at 10:49 AM | PERMALINK
Kudlow is a parody of himself and takes pride in it.
Posted by: terry on August 26, 2008 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK
i realize it's hard to accept, steve, but there are many right-wingers in this fair land who are perfectly happy to spend their days crafting propaganda....
Posted by: howard on August 26, 2008 at 10:54 AM | PERMALINK
It's not breaking even. Factor in the 40-60% drop of the US dollar against all major currencies and that's a serious loss.
Easy cover for all those lousy prognostications by Krudlow. Blame the Dems. In Kraplow's world (a scary place I suspect) Wall St's never to blame for this economic mess. No siree.
Posted by: Former Dan on August 26, 2008 at 10:55 AM | PERMALINK
Yeah, and hammering Mccain on the 7 houses retroactivley hurt June home prices.
Posted by: RollaMO on August 26, 2008 at 10:56 AM | PERMALINK
That's what economics is all about: staring with a political agenda and cherry-picking statistics.
Posted by: Luther on August 26, 2008 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK
Reminds me of the story about the Jew who read the anti-semitic press. Asked by a friend why he read those newspapers, he was told, why not/ In their newspapers Jews control the world and are all rich. I guess the Democrats need to read the Corner to learn about their true power.
Posted by: udthum on August 26, 2008 at 10:58 AM | PERMALINK
Barry Ritholz at bigpicture.com (an actual market realist who pokes at Larry "Goldilocks Bush Economy" Kudlow on a regular basis) had another good point. With McCain closing the gap and in some polls pulling ahead of Obama last week, you'd think the markets would be soaring!
Posted by: on August 26, 2008 at 11:02 AM | PERMALINK
"Second, on the day George W. Bush was sworn into office in January 2001, the Dow Jones stood at 10,732.46. As I'm typing, it stands at 11,427.44."
a better thing to note is how high the dow jones got while bush was president, and how far it has slid since it reached its peak. that's why the dow jones is falling (still), not the convention.
jeez......
Posted by: just bill on August 26, 2008 at 11:07 AM | PERMALINK
Kudlow's totally full of it. The real reason the Dow dropped is because my enemies were able to successfully get me stuck in a traffic jam that delayed me considerably from getting where I was trying to go. And that got me so angry that a bad karma wave swept over the country momentarily; thus depressing the markets enough to cause the big dip. By the time I got out of traffic, it was too late to rally. And for that, I apologize.
Every event in the universe is directly tied to me and my pet issues. Deal with it.
Posted by: Doctor Biobrain on August 26, 2008 at 11:11 AM | PERMALINK
Kudlow is nothing but an ideological shill who is guilty of the using the "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" argument. (Because B follows A, therefore A caused B.) Morons like this with media access contribute to dumbing down of America!
Posted by: Diogenes on August 26, 2008 at 11:14 AM | PERMALINK
U.S. stocks got off to a rocky start this week as concerns about weakness in the housing market and volatility in oil prices continued to gnaw at investors.
I hate those whiny, weak-kneed investors. Don't they realize how great the economy is, that we in no way are in a recession and how good they really have it? It's all in their heads.
Posted by: ckelly on August 26, 2008 at 11:15 AM | PERMALINK
People like Kudlow are all for class warfare, as long as the middle class is unilaterally disarmed first.
Posted by: fafner1 on August 26, 2008 at 11:25 AM | PERMALINK
I've got Republican friends who seriously insist that oil prices came down because President Bush said we should do more offshore drilling. Such is the power of Republicans that they can change world markets by the mere mention of taking action that will add supply to those markets a decade in the future.
Posted by: Tom on August 26, 2008 at 11:25 AM | PERMALINK
The two worst bear markets of the past 30 years happened under Nixon and Bush II. The single strongest bull market happened under Clinton.
You wonder if Cokehead Kudlow really believes this stuff. This is a guy who was once chief economist for Bear Stearns, and it's scary to think that someone in that position could be that stupid. Then again, we now have a better idea of how Bear Stearns was actually run...
Posted by: Boots Day on August 26, 2008 at 11:37 AM | PERMALINK
There was no news in the Dem speeches. I guess Kudlow the Klown never heard of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Besides, the stock decline was during the day and those speeches were later at night. Pre Hoc Propter Hoc???
Posted by: pgl on August 26, 2008 at 11:48 AM | PERMALINK
..and the prospect of a gay parade on the day Katrina hit caused the demise of N.O.
Such active imaginations...
Posted by: Always hopeful on August 26, 2008 at 11:55 AM | PERMALINK
Fortunately I recently shorted 10,000 shares of the Dick Cheney Georgian Opportunities Fund. I'm flying down Easy Street, suckas.
Posted by: maya on August 26, 2008 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK
I'm almost CERTAIN that the market closed well before the Democratic Convention started.
Posted by: Keith on August 26, 2008 at 12:29 PM | PERMALINK
It's pretty hilarious, especially when you take into account these right-wing pro-market articles of faith:
1. The Democrats always call for the same thing: 'class warfare' and 'tax the rich':
2. The market efficiently takes into account all available information;
3. Prices will therefore already have taken into account what the Dems would say at their convention.
So the only way Kudlow could be right, in his own universe, is if the markets were suddenly suirprised yesterday that the Democrats were having a convention.
Posted by: DNS on August 26, 2008 at 1:00 PM | PERMALINK
Is there a reason people like him are responded to as if they argue in good faith? They're cynical political operatives.
Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on August 26, 2008 at 1:34 PM | PERMALINK
"Card-check for the Unions to stop secret elections."
Uh huh. Since people take their cards back any time they want, when you hit 51%, it's not a secret—just an election.
But I guess that's an Evil Thing.
Posted by: Ken Houghton on August 26, 2008 at 3:51 PM | PERMALINK
breaking even??????
Hell no.
You need to factor in REAL INFLATION during each period.
Factoring in the inflation since 2001 -- the real returns on the Dow are down at least 20%. The indexes are only up due to about $4.5 trillion in additional debt.
Posted by: tommy on August 26, 2008 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK
and then I just saw him trot out a JFK quote suggesting that he loved Kennedy's philosophy for cutting the tax rate.(which an Obama economic surrogate quickly noted was at 91 PERCENT at the time)He said he was gonna post the quote on his blog he loved it so much. I wonder if he'll mention the 91% vs 36% difference of the past 47 years.
Posted by: nukev on August 26, 2008 at 8:01 PM | PERMALINK
Tommy is quite right. When comparing Dow (or any stock averages)across time, one must adjust for inflation. Right now, the Dow is about where it was in 1997. Why the Dems don't make a bigger deal out of this is a mystery to me. Weren't the Republicans pushing the "1/2 of households own stock" line in 2004 (even tho' most of us have little income from stock).
As far as Kudlow goes, I've always thought that he was a liberal mole at the Nat'l Review, where is job is to make conservatives look like idiots.
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