Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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August 28, 2008

GOOD SEATS ARE STILL AVAILABLE.... There are competing reports on when, exactly, the McCain campaign is going to announce its running mate, with some rumors the news could come tonight. (Obama communications chief Dan Pfeiffer sounds skeptical: "If they do it, I will pay all of McCain's mortgages next month.")

McCain is, however, set to roll out his selection at an event in Dayton, Ohio, tomorrow. The good news for Republicans is that the event will probably generate enormous media attention. The bad news, the interest from locals isn't nearly as great.

Barack Obama can fill a 75,000 seat stadium. John McCain, it seems, is having trouble filling a 10,000 seat theater in Dayton. They're giving away free tickets in several states and plan to bus in supporters. The VP announcement can't be overshadowed by a less-than-capacity crowd.

This isn't a McCain-bashing post. McCain's campaign has got to be concerned about the relative level of excitement that the GOP base feels. One way to generate some heat is to turn Barack Obama into a boogeyman. That's had a marginal effect so far. Only McCain can close the gap.

That is kind of embarrassing. It's a major event, in a swing state, in a city in which McCain has been advertising heavily. It's also McCain's 72nd birthday, when one might expect Republicans to come out and express their well-wishes. You'd think the interest in who McCain would pick for his ticket would be intense enough to draw an enormous crowd, but they're having trouble filling a theater.

It's not reflected in most recent polling, but there's ample reason to believe the "enthusiasm gap" is real.

Steve Benen 4:40 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (47)
 
Comments

"If they do it, I will pay all of McCain's mortgages next month.")

Excuse me for being cynical, but there probably are no mortgages.

Posted by: MW on August 28, 2008 at 4:40 PM | PERMALINK

Excuse me for being cynical, but there probably are no mortgages.

Liberals! Always bitching about something. So the bank is going to foreclose on your house? Just pay off the damn mortgage!!

Posted by: Dr John Goodman on August 28, 2008 at 4:47 PM | PERMALINK

Maybe he would have gotten a bigger crowd in a non-swing state? I would almost feel sorry for him, if he didn't spend so much time whining about how much worse his life was for five years than anyone else's life can ever possibly be.

Posted by: PJ on August 28, 2008 at 4:47 PM | PERMALINK

It's no problem for McCain if he doesn't fill his chosen venue. His sycophants in the barbecue media can crop the shots to make the crowd look much bigger than it actually is.

Among the "chattering class", as Mark Halperin refers to his media buddies, reality is no longer reality...perception is.

Posted by: Chris on August 28, 2008 at 4:52 PM | PERMALINK

~~~It's not reflected in most recent polling, but there's ample reason to believe the "enthusiasm gap" is real.~~~

I hear this a lot, but I wonder what good our side being more enthusiastic does, if Republicans still show up to vote. I mean, I think Republicans look at voting for McCain the same way a farmer will look at shooting his dog after being bitten by a rabid skunk. Ain't looking forward to it, but it's gotta be done, so let's grit our teeth and do it.

Enthusiasm gaps in elections only mean a damn if it also means those unenthusiastic people can be persuaded to change their minds and go the other way, or just stay home (the point of view the GOP has exploited for decades, they don't care if you don't vote for their guy, as long as you don't vote at all). One thing you can say about Republicans, they know how to pull a lever with the (R) next to it.


Posted by: slappy magoo on August 28, 2008 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

Sen. Obama's ability to excite people and motivate them to see him is one reason why I endorsed his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination. While McDodo is barely able to generate crowds in the low thousands, Obama has to turn tens of thousands away because there is not enough room for everyone who wants to see him speak.

Posted by: Brojo on August 28, 2008 at 4:59 PM | PERMALINK

Sadly, Slappy is right. Republicans consider it a civic duty to vote, but not to know who they're voting for.

Posted by: Danp on August 28, 2008 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK

In the nation with the lowest voting rate of any democracy, enthusiasm matters. Republicans generally vote at a higher rate than Democrats for demographic reasons (richer, older, etc.) If enthusiasm negates or even limits that discrepancy, it ain't good for McCain. It's not Republicans won't vote, it's that more Democrats might.

Posted by: JMG on August 28, 2008 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK

Enthusiasm gap? Damn straight. The enthusiasm for Obama is through the roof. I guess that is because he is a celebrity. The enthusiasm for John McCain, not so much. I guess Republicans have become a party of whiners.

Posted by: Ron Byers on August 28, 2008 at 5:03 PM | PERMALINK

Only McCain schedules a major event for a holiday weekend and wonders why no one shows up.

If anyone wonders why Obama waited until last Saturday to announce his pick, this is it.

He's forced McCain into a rock and a hard place situation where there really is no good time to announce.

Bravo.

Posted by: doubtful on August 28, 2008 at 5:06 PM | PERMALINK

Here's the enthusiasm gap: McCain is having trouble filling a 10,000 seat theatre where he will announce his VP choice. That's a building with seats and, no doubt, air conditioning.

Last Saturday I stood in line with 34,000 of my closest friends for the privilege of standing on the lawn of the Old State Capitol in Springfield. While we stood peacefully awaiting Obama and Biden to appear and give their speeches, the temperature climbed to the high 80s, and the air was muggy the whole time.

I'm convinced that Obama supporters would walk through fire to vote for him. I'm not sure McCain supporters will cross the street.

Posted by: Lifelong Dem on August 28, 2008 at 5:09 PM | PERMALINK

*

Posted by: mhr on August 28, 2008 at 5:10 PM | PERMALINK

"mother lives in dayton."
–les nessman, wkrp

Posted by: mellowjohn on August 28, 2008 at 5:14 PM | PERMALINK

damn, who let mhr in here again?

Posted by: survivin in tejas on August 28, 2008 at 5:21 PM | PERMALINK

Consider also the contrast in style and what viewers will draw from that. As I noted in the previous thread, Obama's set tonight has lots of Greek columns (and Bush used some columns in 2004, and of course Obama is playing to Washington DC architectural icons more than "the ancient Greeks" directly; *we* know that.) I still worry about how many voters will feel about the set:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08282008/news/nationalnews/temple_of_dem_on_mt__o_lympus_126450.htm

DENVER - Democrats will kneel before the "Temple of Obama" tonight.

As if a Rocky Mountain coronation were not lofty enough, Barack Obama will aim for Mount Olympus when he accepts his party's nomination atop an enormous, Greek-columned stage - built by the same cheesy set team that put together Britney Spears' last tour.
~~~~~~~

Well, did it just have to be the "cheesy set team" that Britney employed, on top of that "celebrity" ad from McSame? I think the opposition can and will take advantage of this, including the report that Obama will take "an elevator" to the stage. The size of the crowd will however be noteworthy and impressive.

mhr - is McCain really offering good substance, please tell us but remember you have to distinguish what he says now from what he did several months ago.

Posted by: Neil B on August 28, 2008 at 5:22 PM | PERMALINK

I've thought for several months that Obama is going to crush McCain in the election but people never seemed to believe me.

Just wait until the debates. The contrast between a physical and mental specimen like Barack Obama and the doddering, confused, stoop shouldered, pale and sickly looking McCain is going to make even Obama supporters feel sorry for him.

Posted by: on August 28, 2008 at 5:22 PM | PERMALINK

Pawlenty has cancelled all his schedule for tonight, so Pfeiffer might have to shut up and whip out his checkbook.

Posted by: SocraticGadfly on August 28, 2008 at 5:24 PM | PERMALINK

If JMc can't attract a full house, Obama is to blame for scheduling an event in Denver, CO on the same night as McC's event. How dare he try to compete with a FORMER POW, when he has no military service to validate his presidential run. Is that a Christian thing to do?

peace,
st john

Posted by: st john on August 28, 2008 at 5:27 PM | PERMALINK

Pawlenty has cancelled all his schedule for tonight, so Pfeiffer might have to shut up and whip out his checkbook.

That would involve McCain actually disclosing how many houses he owns and what his wife's monthly payments are.

Ouch. Burned!

Posted by: on August 28, 2008 at 5:27 PM | PERMALINK

Well, did it just have to be the "cheesy set team" that Britney employed, on top of that "celebrity" ad from McSame? I think the opposition can and will take advantage of this, including the report that Obama will take "an elevator" to the stage. The size of the crowd will however be noteworthy and impressive.

The Republicans would make it a negative were it exactly the opposite in style. It doesn't matter what he does or doesn't do, it's always going to be a negative.

Posted by: Josh R. on August 28, 2008 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK

Denver.
Dayton.

What more needs to be said?

Posted by: Quaker in a Basement on August 28, 2008 at 5:29 PM | PERMALINK

Don't forget to mention that the Republican minority leader in congress, John Boehner, is the representative of the district that surrounds Dayton, Ohio on three sides.

Posted by: carsick on August 28, 2008 at 5:30 PM | PERMALINK

This is, of course, bad news... for Obama! The press will barely comment on McCain's "less than capicity crowd" & the cameras will helpfully shoot from angles that makes McCain's audience look bigger than it is.

Meanwhile the MSM will gladly give you reasons why Obama's huge crowd & venue is a bad thing: too grandiose, elevates Obama, he needs to come back to earth, sets expectations too high for his speech, ad nauseum.

McCain will be praised for having a smaller, 'more intimate' gathering, more down to earth, more in touch... you get the idea.

Posted by: raff on August 28, 2008 at 5:31 PM | PERMALINK

I think local Dems should help McCain pack his rally. Not to disrupt but just sit there and look bored and sleepy. Make for a great visual.

Posted by: Th on August 28, 2008 at 5:33 PM | PERMALINK

The plain fact is that John McCain is not inspiring anyone to join the GOP and vote for him. On the other hand Barack Obama is inspiring people, millions of them, to join the Democratic party and elect him our next POTUS. Sure McCain's campaign is doing it's level best to spin this, along with minimizing the age and wealth difference between them.

So we are left wondering:
Just how much lipstick must a pig wear to stop being a pig?

Posted by: PatD on August 28, 2008 at 5:33 PM | PERMALINK

but so many showed up to his BBQ

Posted by: amy on August 28, 2008 at 5:33 PM | PERMALINK

When I was a POW, I can assure you I grew used to speaking before small audiences. And I had a noticeable lack of enthusiasm when I was a POW. It wasn't easy.

My friends, have I mentioned I was a POW? I don't like to talk about it.

Posted by: John McCain on August 28, 2008 at 5:35 PM | PERMALINK

I think local Dems should help McCain pack his rally. Not to disrupt but just sit there and look bored and sleepy. Make for a great visual.

And since it's his birthday, they should bring a cake. With candles. Lots and lots...

Posted by: Quaker in a Basement on August 28, 2008 at 5:38 PM | PERMALINK

The crowd here, in Dayton, and the one with the "big" CW star that drew HUNDREDS is the Main reason that McSHAME wanted town hall meetings. He can't draw flies on his own!

Posted by: barkleyg on August 28, 2008 at 5:40 PM | PERMALINK

This belongs here too:

Just on Drudge, from several-minutes old story, "PAWLENTY CANCELS NUMEROUS PUBLIC APPEARANCES.." in red with clear insinuation:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080828/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_veepstakes

But at the same time, there's supposed to be activity about Mittens, SS protection, etc.

Posted by: Neil B on August 28, 2008 at 5:45 PM | PERMALINK

As I noted in the previous thread, Obama's set tonight has lots of Greek columns (and Bush used some columns in 2004, and of course Obama is playing to Washington DC architectural icons more than "the ancient Greeks" directly; *we* know that.) I still worry about how many voters will feel about the set.

Neil, you are quickly passing into concern troll territory. If you're going to freak out this much over a mocking article in the right-wing New York Post, you're never going to make it to November.

At this point, the media is going to gasp over anything Obama does and claim it's never been done before, including using the words "and" and "the." It's par for the course and there's NOTHING the Democrats can do to prevent it. It's Rammstein all over again ("He didn't go! He hates the troops!" "He went! He exploited the troops!")

Posted by: Mnemosyne on August 28, 2008 at 5:55 PM | PERMALINK

"As if a Rocky Mountain coronation were not lofty enough, Barack Obama will aim for Mount Olympus when he accepts his party's nomination atop an enormous, Greek-columned stage - built by the same cheesy set team that put together Britney Spears' last tour."
~~~~~~Well, did it just have to be the "cheesy set team" that Britney employed, on top of that "celebrity" ad from McSame? I think the opposition can and will take advantage of this, including the report that Obama will take "an elevator" to the stage. The size of the crowd will however be noteworthy and impressive.

Oh come on! For Christ's sakes! Until Barack Obama did it, appearing before Greek columns seemed to be remarkably un-noteworthy in American political life.

Look, this is simple political ju-jitsu. Barack Obama is incredibly unpopular, so since their candidate is remarkably unpopular the GOP decided to attack by making Obama's very appeal and popularity into a negative. But that only works if you fall for it.

Posted by: Stefan on August 28, 2008 at 5:57 PM | PERMALINK

Well maybe (the rag was just a source and preview of how they'll play it), but look at this (not utterly reliable but quotes Dem officials)"

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12918.html

Posted by: Neil B on August 28, 2008 at 5:58 PM | PERMALINK

Arrgghh! Should read:

Barack Obama is incredibly popular, so since their candidate is remarkably unpopular the GOP decided to attack by making Obama's very appeal and popularity into a negative.

Posted by: Stefan on August 28, 2008 at 5:59 PM | PERMALINK

I considered having the GOP convention in a quonset hut or rice paddy, like it was in my POW days (which I don't like to talk about). But my rich backers wouldn't hear of such a thing.

I also wanted to build a full-scale replica of my wrecked plane (complete with lake and angry villagers), but Rove said it wouldn't look good on TV.

Posted by: John McCain on August 28, 2008 at 6:01 PM | PERMALINK

I'm not surprised the McCain campaign is having trouble filling seats for its VP rollout. The only possibilities generating any excitement are the ones getting negative buzz - i.e., Lieberman, Ridge, Hutchison.

Also deflating excitement is McCain's decision to make this an anti-Obama rather than pro-McCain campaign.

Posted by: allbetsareoff on August 28, 2008 at 6:05 PM | PERMALINK

Doesn't it seem a little loopy to plan a big rally on the Friday morning before Labor Day Weekend?

Maybe John McCain, not being much of a laborer himself, doesn't understand how big a holiday Labor Day Weekend is to the rest of us. My office is practically empty already, and anybody who can is heading off somewhere, if only to sit outside in their backyard soaking up the sun and drinking beer.

Posted by: Barbara on August 28, 2008 at 6:06 PM | PERMALINK

I don't know. Obama picked the night that college football starts off.

He's going to be in a head-to-head competition with Wake Forest at Baylor tonight.

Posted by: 2Manchu on August 28, 2008 at 6:24 PM | PERMALINK

I can't believe no one has commented how the event is being held at the "Nutter" center.

I find it pretty appropriate myself

Posted by: cintibud on August 28, 2008 at 6:46 PM | PERMALINK

Well maybe (the rag was just a source and preview of how they'll play it), but look at this (not utterly reliable but quotes Dem officials)"

The press can always find disgruntled DINOs to talk about how terrible things are. Most of them are people who appear on Fox News as "liberals." Lanny Davis was probably dying to pick up the phone and complain about being ignored.

Seriously, dude. Nut. Up. While the national media is focusing on trivia, Obama is spending his money drowning out the 527s before they can go national.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on August 28, 2008 at 7:06 PM | PERMALINK

Whew.... The level of Magical Thinking on the far-left keeps rising---filling a football stadium that has Springsteen & Bon Jovi equals a VEEP announcement?

That famous ginormous crowd in Portland was for a popular local rock group which Obama hitched a ride on.....

Of course, the Magical MSM never mentions those tiny details, and the nutroots here just lap it up.

Posted by: daveinboca on August 28, 2008 at 7:53 PM | PERMALINK

Sorry, but McCain is about as good a speaker as Fred Thompson. He comes across as uninteresting and unmotivated. His constant use of 'my friend' makes me think Im listening to a used car salesman - and thats not good.

Posted by: Jet on August 28, 2008 at 8:17 PM | PERMALINK

Whew.... The level of Magical Thinking on the far-left keeps rising---filling a football stadium that has Springsteen & Bon Jovi equals a VEEP announcement?

When Barack Obama announced in Springfield that Joe Biden would be his running mate, 35,000 people showed up.

McCain is having trouble filling 10,000 seats for his announcement.

No wonder you guys are running scared.

That famous ginormous crowd in Portland was for a popular local rock group which Obama hitched a ride on.....

Other way around, as the Decemberists themselves will tell you. Their usual Portland venue, the Crystal Ballroom, holds 1,000. I'm pretty sure they would be playing bigger venues if there was a pent-up demand of 75,000 to see them.

Of course, the Magical MSM never mentions those tiny details, and the nutroots here just lap it up.

They also never mention the magical unicorns living in your backyard, those bastards.

But, please, keep telling yourself lies. It's the only way you're going to be able to keep your sanity, because there's no way you're going to be able to look yourself in the mirror once you face up to what you've been enabling for the past 8 years.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on August 28, 2008 at 8:42 PM | PERMALINK

[...]-filling a football stadium that has Springsteen & Bon Jovi [...] -- daveinboca, @19:53

I'm sure at least 40 thousand of those Dems turned their tickets back in, when they heard that Springsteen wasn't scheduled to appear.

Do they sell brains in Fla? Even a cheap, second-skull one, might serve you better than what you've been cursed with.

Posted by: exlibra on August 28, 2008 at 9:30 PM | PERMALINK

Cintibud, I was thinking the exact same thing! The Nutter Arena is the perfect place for McCain to be speaking!

Posted by: AndrewBW on August 28, 2008 at 10:22 PM | PERMALINK

McCain: It's Pawlenty!

The American People: Who?

Posted by: Pug on August 28, 2008 at 11:33 PM | PERMALINK

That famous ginormous crowd in Portland was for a popular local rock group which Obama hitched a ride on.....

Dave, that enormous band Obama hitched his ride to was . . . the Decembrists?

Surely, even you aren't that dumb. But then, maybe you are since you didn't bother to name the band, thereby showing just what a big name they really are. I bet you didn't even know the name of this alleged super star band.

Posted by: Pug on August 28, 2008 at 11:37 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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