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September 2, 2008

THE STABILITY OF THE TICKET.... The New York Times had an item today about the various questions swirling around Sarah Palin, and reported, "Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina said that he had heard no discussion about removing Ms. Palin from the ticket."

The interesting thing about that isn't the response, which was predictable, but the fact that Sanford was asked the question in the first place.

To be sure, the notion that John McCain would switch running mates just two months before Election Day seems very farfetched. The only modern precedent is Tom Eagleton, and that a) was 36 years ago; and b) didn't turn out well for the Democratic ticket.

Nevertheless, campaign reporters have begun at least asking about Palin's future, and as Josh Marshall noted, the futures markets apparently find the question interesting, as well.

As some of you know I keep an eye on the political futures markets at Intrade.com. And I've been wondering whether they'd open a contract on whether Sarah Palin would make it to November, let alone the White House. And sure enough, here it is. Still a long shot at 15% odds of it happening. But up 12 points so far today.

The trading has been up and down today, but more important than the number is the fact that this is a subject worthy of Intrade in the first place.

Is McCain likely to switch running mates? No. It would take a lot more than "I'd like to spend more time with my family" to help justify a political catastrophe of this magnitude, and McCain would no doubt be loath to admit making this big a mistake.

What's more, given that Republican donors and the hardcore religious right activists are thrilled with Palin joining the ticket, McCain would face enormous institutional pressure to keep her, unless there's a complete collapse in the polls, which seems highly unlikely.

But it's worth watching how this unfolds. If McCain drops Palin, it's a disaster for the Republican Party (unless there's someone truly extraordinary waiting in the wings). If McCain keeps Palin, he runs the risk of having a series of increasingly embarrassing revelations come out slowly between now and November.

Either way, McCain's judgment couldn't look much worse.

Steve Benen 2:03 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (74)
 
Comments

McCain would no doubt be loath to admit making this big a mistake.

No doubt, but the Palin pick is a mistake of obvious magnitude whether McCain is willing to admit it or not.

Posted by: Gregory on September 2, 2008 at 2:05 PM | PERMALINK

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy.

Posted by: Steve LaBonne on September 2, 2008 at 2:07 PM | PERMALINK

Check this out--this woman is totally crazy!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palins-church-may-have-sh_n_123205.html

Posted by: Margaret on September 2, 2008 at 2:10 PM | PERMALINK

Time for Grandpa McCoy to turn in his driver's license. he's to old to drive the Republican party

Posted by: John R on September 2, 2008 at 2:10 PM | PERMALINK

Perhaps McCain will announce that they are going to keep Cheney on part-time after the election.

That's Just What I Said

Posted by: Dale on September 2, 2008 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK

Joseph Heller called it Catch 22.

Posted by: Former Dan on September 2, 2008 at 2:12 PM | PERMALINK
the notion that John McCain would switch running mates just two months before Election Day seems very farfetched.
More farfetched than the notion he would pick a running mate just two months before Election Day? It's only been a few days since she was announced, after all...

I was thinking that the notion that he would switch just a few days before his nomination acceptance speech is pretty farfetched, though.

Posted by: lylebot on September 2, 2008 at 2:13 PM | PERMALINK

The natural gamblers response to this situation is to stay the course, double down, put the pedal to the metal, full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes. So yes, it's McCain/Palin all the way.

Posted by: charles on September 2, 2008 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK

@ Margaret I hope sombody captured the wierd comments of the pastor as they have taken the link down already (502)

Posted by: John R on September 2, 2008 at 2:15 PM | PERMALINK

It is becoming very obvious that McCain caved in to Karl Rove and the right-wing extremist so-called "Christians".

McCain wanted to choose Lieberman or Ridge. McCain was not allowed to pick the VP candidate of his choice.

McCain was ordered by Karl Rove to pick Palin as a concession to the right-wing extremist "Christian" base. McCain just did what he was told. McCain has nothing left, except subservient obedience to the Cheney-Bush-Rove political machine.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on September 2, 2008 at 2:16 PM | PERMALINK

Yes, let's hope those were captured. This is getting so crazy! More, please!

Posted by: margaret on September 2, 2008 at 2:18 PM | PERMALINK

Andrea Mitchell , McEvil's faithful water carrier, just made yet another lie for this piece of filth: 'McCain never said that his criteria for a vp running mate was that he/she needed to pass the threshold of being ready to be president from day one' ......... yes, this repiglican/corporate stooge just said this on tv ...... the one thing that repiglicans do best is lie, deceive, and create 'storylines' that have nothing to do with actual reality and then try to make the typical stupid american believe them ......... then we wonder what the fuck has happened to our country

Posted by: stormkskies on September 2, 2008 at 2:18 PM | PERMALINK

"Either way, McCain's judgment couldn't look much worse."

Unless, of course, he wins. Then he's look like a political genius for picking her. Wouldn't you say?

Posted by: Chicounsel on September 2, 2008 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK

Steve is right about one thing. The simple fact that reporters are ASKING the quesiton is bad for McCain. It undercuts his entire message about experience and judgement.

Dems need to push hard on Palin being a far right social conservative. If only to demonstrate how McCain is still beholden to that wing of the party. Although they do need to be careful since any attack on Palin's far right positions will be spun as an attack on her daughter (her daughter's pregnancy will be Palin's POW against attacks).

Posted by: thorin-1 on September 2, 2008 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK

PA: unless there's a complete collapse in the polls, which seems highly unlikely.

Happened with Bush and never recovered. So, why not?

Posted by: Goldilocks on September 2, 2008 at 2:21 PM | PERMALINK

You are giving the U.S. electorate far too much credit. They're not the sophisticated, discerning collection of people you suspect. Somehow every bit of bad news is served up by the media as exactly the opposite, becoming some incredibly fortuitous event proving the genius of McCain. Palin is going to make Mother Theresa, Golda Meir and Margaret Thatcher look like a bunch of drunken, carrousing hooligans by the time Republicans put the finishing touches on her hagiography. Also, as alluded to elsewhere, her detractors are in for a serious pummeling and character assassination by RNC operatives and lawyers very soon.

Posted by: steve duncan on September 2, 2008 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK

What I find so conspicuous about his choice of Palin is that he had, what, 5 months to thoroughly vet his VP? What the hell was he doing all that time? McCain's choice was last minute, impulsive and he chose a virtual stranger. He's looking more and more like Bush all the time-- all bluster and "gut" with no actual thinking or planning required.

We need to put this in terms that people can relate to-- let's pretend McCain is your boss. What would you think of someone who made major decisions this way? No research, no due diligence, just whatever they feel like doing without serious deliberation. I've had a boss like McCain once and he made everyone crazy-- unobjective, unpredictable, disorganized and all about HIM and HIS personal feelings.

Posted by: zoe from pittsburgh on September 2, 2008 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK

Wait, "slowly"? What gives you that idea?

Posted by: David on September 2, 2008 at 2:27 PM | PERMALINK

Unless, of course, he wins.

And if a pig had wings...

Then he's look like a political genius for picking her. Wouldn't you say?

Oh, yeah -- Bush sure looks like a political genius when Dick Cheney accidentally shoots some guy in the face, wears a parka to a state funeral, or outs a covert CIA arms control agent.

Posted by: Gregory on September 2, 2008 at 2:27 PM | PERMALINK

At first blush, in his first presidential decision, all of McCain's experience didn't seemed to help.

In the last week or so, Obama and McCain have demonstrated what we progressives already knew--judgment trumps experience every time. Obama has the former, McCain has the latter, and Palin has neither.

Posted by: CJ on September 2, 2008 at 2:28 PM | PERMALINK

It doesn't look like there are any good things coming for the Republicans, unless all of Palin's dirty laundry is now aired and/or she proves to be a quick study and a very effective campaigner, both in the sense of appealing to the base and looking like a possible replacement for McCain should something happen. Even with the benefit of low expectations, I don't see either happening. As I've said before, there are easy ways to make her look like the lightweight she is without looking like she's being attacked unfairly. And you get bet that the Obama campaign will do it. Meanwhile, Obama and Biden look cool, calm, serious, and presidential. The contrast couldn't be greater.

Posted by: Brian J on September 2, 2008 at 2:30 PM | PERMALINK

Make that "And you can bet..."

Posted by: Brian J on September 2, 2008 at 2:32 PM | PERMALINK

It might be in the party's long-term interest if she's dumped. The Christianist wing of the party, for all the theories that their power is waning, is clearly in the GOP's drivers seat, which is a long-term disaster for the party. By getting rid of her, that bloc is shattered, and the Republicans can focus on their core values: smaller government, fewer taxes, yada yada.

Posted by: Wrecktum on September 2, 2008 at 2:32 PM | PERMALINK

Pulin is pure political genius by Karl Rove, warts and all. The Base is finally fired up, circling the wagons, and supporting Palin like no other. That means votes come election day that were in doubt last week. The Base is back in play. Libs can whine all they want about 5 kids and a VP, or pregnant daughters, no foreign policy experience, wha, wha, wha.

HTFU! Rove just delivered his October surprise a month early and its a good one.

And the genius of this move is that there is little Obama can do because he has no influence with the Base what so ever.

You still have me vote Obama, but this might be checkmate.

Can you say Palin Bounce.

Posted by: The fake fake al on September 2, 2008 at 2:33 PM | PERMALINK

What is so refreshing about John McCain, as opposed to other candidates, is that, as with Iraq, as with Palin, when McCain makes an error in judgment, he sticks to it.

Posted by: Nick Kristoff on September 2, 2008 at 2:33 PM | PERMALINK

Yes, it's a PR disaster to dump her now.

But on the assumption that she didn't disclose much of this stuff to McCain's campaign -- in particular, her daughter's pregnancy -- I don't see how he keeps her on the ticket. That's a fundamental breach of trust that makes it almost impossible to work with her.

Don't get me wrong. This is McCain's fault for making an impulsive decision and not doing his homework. But from his point of view, she's proven herself to be untrustworthy right out of the blocks.

Posted by: larry birnbaum on September 2, 2008 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

Well, this is still shaping up as the Rovian head fake I expected. I'm still believing neither McSame nor Palin will be the real GOP nominee, for reasons of CYA on many levels. Rove and Cheney are driving this bus, the radical fundies are useful distractions. As noted in an earlier article on this site, it will be the Alaska Firsters that finally doom Palin and McSame.

Good observations from all about the vetting process, and if McSame was trying to torpedo his campaign he wouldn't be doing as good a job. So, given the premise above, who is Rove/Cheney going to pull out of the hat?

Petraeus? Jeb Bush? Either with Condi as the VP choice? As noted before, the selections have to be 1) LOYAL to the cabal, and 2) not going to pursue the cabal in any way. Both Petraeus and Jeb have enough residual popularity to pull it off if the oppo can be kept at bay long enough. Condi won't be able to head the ticket given how extensive the file is on her on the 'net.

I would also say that any currently official GOP restrictions on changing candidates after the convention will be pixie dusted into oblivion, so don't look for any permanence even if the ticket is confirmed by the RNC. This will be the October surprise this year, a new team. Or (much worse) no election for "security" reasons.

Posted by: rugger0 on September 2, 2008 at 2:39 PM | PERMALINK

I'll bet on 'he drops her.' Either way he is screwed -- and it doesn't matter if the base 'rallies around her' since that group is a lot smaller than you think.

But realize that all this has come out in the less than 100 hours since he nominated her. (Which shows how bad his vetting process was, among other things.)

I don't think he can afford her.

Posted by: Prup (aka Jim Benton) on September 2, 2008 at 2:47 PM | PERMALINK

What implications if Palin pulls herself off the ticket (complaining, of course, that the liberal media is trying to tear her family apart)? That wouldn't be so bad for McCain.

Posted by: Steven Rumbalski on September 2, 2008 at 2:50 PM | PERMALINK

You've got it backwards. The Palin pick is already a political catastrophe for everyone except the fringe right. Changing VPs can only make things less bad. McCain has already lost this election. The question is whether the GOP can survive this election.

McCain will switch. Actyually, she will withdraw to protect her family and daughter. To the public event will made to appear that the left wing media brought her down. Internally, McCain will say, "I did it your way and see what it got me? Now I will do it MY way."

The religious conservatives will forgive him because they are stupid and think his heart was in the right place when he picked Palin.

Posted by: bob5540 on September 2, 2008 at 2:53 PM | PERMALINK

His only hope is HUCKABEE. There is no way this woman is on the ticket past this weekend. No way. Remeber Republicans have no shame. Dumping her would be no big deal to these people as long as the theocratic base is happy with the second choice.

Plus the developing storyline will tout MCCain's "leadership" in making a tough decision to accept Palin's resignation and accept a second choice.

The second choice just needs to have a pulse and a sembalance of national political cred for the media to laud the McCain's ability to make "tough choices" in the face of adversity.

Again everything is GOOD FOR McCain

Posted by: lib4 on September 2, 2008 at 2:55 PM | PERMALINK

Talk about Kool-Aid. The Republican Convention is going to look like a Jim Jones revival. They are going to make Sarah Palin out to be the best thing to happen to our country since Ben Franklin.

Posted by: John Henry on September 2, 2008 at 2:56 PM | PERMALINK

rugger0, I just can't believe Rove has anything to do with this fiasco other than rescuing him from his stupid decision. I think he was attempting to prove he's still got that "maverick thang" going and bucked them all.

Condi Rice has stated forwards/backwards/insideout that she does NOT want to continue in public office. And Jeb Bush? Why on earth would anyone think that's a good idea?? No way to deny then it's not about dynasty. Seems to me they'd wipe the slate clean, bye-bye McCain and Palin, and bring in a hugely conservative tag team, headed by Huckabee.

Posted by: MsMuddler on September 2, 2008 at 2:56 PM | PERMALINK

Who says he can't keep the money raised on her account after she leaves the campaign?

1) Wring out the anti-choicers

2) Dump Palin and grab Lieberman

3) Wring out "moderates" and "independents"

4) Lather, rinse, repeat.

Posted by: Stephen on September 2, 2008 at 2:57 PM | PERMALINK

I like how on Intrade, her dropping out is nearly twice as likely as gas costing $4/gal. at the end of the month...

Posted by: jibeaux on September 2, 2008 at 2:58 PM | PERMALINK

Can't....stop....laughing......

Posted by: Stefan on September 2, 2008 at 2:59 PM | PERMALINK

I think this is a tactic of McCain's to throw the whole issue back in the face of the Religious Right. A "see-I told you so" kinda of point. There is no reason why Palin can't just up and quit. McCain can always plead "not my decision" and he can go back to the Religious Right and say "now it's my turn" and select Joe L. Joe only has two friends-Joe and Graham. He's gonna work them in there somehow. He may win the internal battle but he's gonn lose the war.

Posted by: fillphil on September 2, 2008 at 3:04 PM | PERMALINK

sung to the tune of.. well, you know:

Come and listen to a story about a boy named Levi,
A poor mountaineer, barely kept his family fed,
Then one day he was shootin in some girl,
And up through the girl came a bubblin kid.

Child that is, white gold, Alaska tea.

Well the first thing you know young Levi's a millionaire,
Kinfolk said "Levi move away from there"
Said "Washington is the place you ought to be"
So they loaded up the truck and moved to DC.

K Street, that is. Lobbyists, politicians.

Well now its time to say good by to Levi and all his kin.
And they would like to thank you folks fer kindly droppin in.
You're all invited back again to this locality
To have a heapin helpin of their hospitality

Hillybilly that is. Set a spell, Take your shoes off.

Y'all come back now, y'hear?

Posted by: entheo on September 2, 2008 at 3:04 PM | PERMALINK

This reminds me of the show "Commander in Chief" where the chauvinistic presidential candidate picks Gina Davis as his running mate in order to garner more of the women's vote and he dies in office. She's pressured to resign so someone properly prepared for the job (a crusty old white guy) can run the show and she should be well aware that she wasn't chosen for her resume.

Prophecy of a sort?

Of course, Davis played a well qualified liberal... so the happy endings might not have been so frequent.


Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on September 2, 2008 at 3:05 PM | PERMALINK

Tonight when they begin to *define* John McCain, I say we start a drinking game.

"POW"
"No tables or chairs"
"Vietnam"
"Maverick"

Posted by: 63days on September 2, 2008 at 3:05 PM | PERMALINK

What a start for a presidency if McCain were to be elected. A drug stealing first lady, also a president who had affairs on the side while married to his first wife and a vice president with a pregnant 17 year old in the vice presidents house. Also a vice president who is under investigation for wrongdoing BEFORE the election.

Posted by: JS on September 2, 2008 at 3:09 PM | PERMALINK

Speaking of odds..

John McCain more likely to drop Sarah Palin, bookmakers say

Posted by: 63days on September 2, 2008 at 3:14 PM | PERMALINK

One word --- "deparation". He picked her because he was desparate for any news coverage to try and trump the dems and Obama mania and Hillary - dumb move.

Posted by: abc123 on September 2, 2008 at 3:23 PM | PERMALINK

The impressionable John McPOW was rickrolled during an attempt to understand the Internets. Now he's never gonna give her up, never gonna let her go, never gonna turn around and desert her.

Posted by: on September 2, 2008 at 3:25 PM | PERMALINK

The more likely scenario will be a "spontaneous boomlet" at the convention for an alternate candidate and a push to put him/her (probably him) into nomination. And a real roll call vote.

I'd see that happening before he drops her or she withdraws. Then McCain can honorably follow "the will of the party."

Posted by: Z. Mulls on September 2, 2008 at 3:26 PM | PERMALINK

Can't....stop....laughing......

Well, sure, Stefan, but then I read blockheads like John "Everything I Read at The Corner Must Be Gospel Truth" Hansen saying that the liberal blogs are obviously afraid of Palin, that an avowed successionist is a brilliant pick to energize the GOP base and that he's looking forward to the Veep debates, and I...

...I just start laughing all over again.

Posted by: Gregory on September 2, 2008 at 3:26 PM | PERMALINK

I am beginning to wonder if Palin is some kind of decoy to draw fire away from... well, I'm not sure what. But I notice it's been all pile-on-Palin all the time here since her announcement - and it's getting so stupid as to strain belief. Is something happening in the shadows that we're missing?

On the other hand, maybe we really are witnessing how McCain and the GOP finally set fire to their house of cards.

Posted by: short fuse on September 2, 2008 at 3:27 PM | PERMALINK

Oh, yeah -- Bush sure looks like a political genius when Dick Cheney accidentally shoots some guy in the face, wears a parka to a state funeral, or outs a covert CIA arms control agent.

Posted by: Gregory on September 2, 2008 at 2:27 PM

Gregory that all happened AFTER Bush had won. At the time, Bush's pick of Cheney was hailed as providing the ticket with "gravitis" and helped him win the election.

Posted by: Chicounsel on September 2, 2008 at 3:28 PM | PERMALINK

"Now he's never gonna give her up, never gonna let her go, never gonna turn around and desert her."

Dude! LMAO!!

Posted by: 63days on September 2, 2008 at 3:28 PM | PERMALINK

A lot of folks are really worried that the Rovettes are playing some kind of strange but ultimately Rovian game. Sorry, but this mess has giant clusterf**k written all over it in large letters.

The folks who fear Rove don't understand that the hard right religious base isn't what it used to be. There are too many people hurting and many of them are real evangelicals. Issues like abortion and gay marriage are for good times, but are not as important in the heart of apparently permanent recession. Time has passed and Rove's 2000 base politics is no longer relevant.

Posted by: Ron Byers on September 2, 2008 at 3:28 PM | PERMALINK

I know, Gregory, me too!

Truly I am the favored of the Lord, for if He did not love me so He would not have bestowed upon me such a great gift as Sarah Palin, for which gift I do humbly give thanks and praise to Him.

Posted by: Stefan on September 2, 2008 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

Multiple choice question

A. If McCain drops Palin, it's a disaster for the Republican Party

B. If McCain keeps Palin, he runs the risk of having a series of increasingly embarrassing revelations come out slowly between now and November.

What you left out:

C. If McCain keeps Palin, the public falls for her and he wins the election.

Since, A is not going to happen, for the very reason that you stated, it's now down to two choices... help or hurt.

Considering that prior to selecting Palin, McCain has absolutely zero chance of winning, picking her isn't such a bad gamble after all, is it?

Now, go watch some Palin interviews. There is no denying (up until now) that she has excellent media presence. Of course she could screw up, but its just as likely she will knock the interviews out of the park.

Also, how much do you want to bet that her speech Wednesday gets just as much attention as Obama's speech last week? If she hits it out of the park (and the Republicans can write good speeches), then watch out. The first real televised interview with Governor Palin will be massively watched TV. If she handles it as well as she is capable of, then questions about McCains judgment are going to be moot.

Additionally, the massive dirt being dug up on her will fade into history after a few weeks. The general public's memory is just not that long.

I still find it ironic that here in Alaska, she is considered quite moderate, and viewed as a reach across the aisle type of politician.

Posted by: rory @ parentalcation on September 2, 2008 at 3:30 PM | PERMALINK

Oh, yeah -- Bush sure looks like a political genius when Dick Cheney accidentally shoots some guy in the face, wears a parka to a state funeral, or outs a covert CIA arms control agent.

Posted by: Gregory on September 2, 2008 at 2:27 PM

Gregory, you will note that all that took place AFTER Bush had won. At the time, Bush's pick of Cheney was hailed as providing the ticket with "gravitas" and helped him win the election.

And are you offering odds on Obama's victory since it's a "sure thing"? 5 to 1? 10 to 1? 100 to 1? If so, I might have a buck or two to bet against the One winning.

Posted by: Chicounsel on September 2, 2008 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK

The most hilarious thing I have seen is the numerous blog comments from the Bush/McCain bootlickers, claiming (as usual in nearly identical, scripted language) that Democrats and liberals are "terrified" of Sarah Palin.

Given the choices of VP candidates that were available to McCain, some of whom might have been quite formidable in the campaign, I think that Democrats and liberals are more likely beside themselves with joy that the McCain campaign so totally, completely, spectacularly, shark-jumpingly, BLEW IT.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on September 2, 2008 at 3:34 PM | PERMALINK

Chicounsel wrote: that all happened AFTER Bush had won. At the time, Bush's pick of Cheney was hailed as providing the ticket with "gravitis" and helped him win the election.

Yeah, and once in office, instead of gravitas we got a combination of comical ineptitude and churlish authoritarianism that has Cheney even more politically radioactive than Bush.

No one seriously thinks Palin brings "gravitas" to the GOP ticket, especially since it's all too obvious that McCain failed to vet her, you blockhead. Comical ineptitude and churlish authoritarianism (seasoned with a generous dose of religious extremism to boot), now...

Posted by: Gregory on September 2, 2008 at 3:38 PM | PERMALINK

Chicounsel,

Intrade is offering odds, if you're a betting man. Forty cents gets you a dollar if McCain wins.

Does anyone know if Barack's State Senate district had a higher population than the state of Alaska? I'll bet it's close.

Posted by: The Fabulous Mr. Toad on September 2, 2008 at 3:41 PM | PERMALINK

Chicounsel wrote: "And are you offering odds on Obama's victory since it's a 'sure thing'? 5 to 1? 10 to 1? 100 to 1? If so, I might have a buck or two to bet against the One winning."

If you are serious then you should go to Intrade and put your money where your mouth is. (At the moment they've got Obama at 61.6 and McCain at 38.6 ... and "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election" going for 13.5.)

I don't bet on elections since I bet a friend of mine fifty bucks that Howard Dean would be the Democratic nominee in 2004. My friend, a Vietnam veteran, was a huge fan of John Kerry and bet that Kerry would be the nominee -- he certainly had the courage of his convictions since at the time he made the bet, Kerry's campaign was going nowhere and people were talking about when he would drop out of the race.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on September 2, 2008 at 3:44 PM | PERMALINK

And are you offering odds on Obama's victory since it's a "sure thing"? 5 to 1? 10 to 1? 100 to 1? If so, I might have a buck or two to bet against the One winning.

Oh, yeah, Chicounsel, your sterling reputation for honesty as demonstrated by your postings here lend one all the confidence they need to think you wouldn't welsh. [eyeroll]

When did I -- or anyone -- say Obama's election is a "sure thing," toad? Sure, the American people are sick of the mendacity, incompetence, corruption and tyranny of the Republican party you so shamefully embrace, and sure, the American people are hungry for change, and sure, McCain is a terrible candidate and sure, his hasty and irresponsible veep pick -- the kind of obvious sop to the social conservatives that invites unwanted scrutiny of McCain's own extrimism, and not vetted, to boot! -- is fast becoming a laughingstock outside the conservative echo chamber, but I doubt you could find anyone who calls it a "sure thing?"

Posted by: Gregory on September 2, 2008 at 3:48 PM | PERMALINK

I'm still worried that the low expectations about her will mean that when she's in that vp debate, people will come away feeling much better, when she doesn't come across as some kind of bizarre monster. I mean, I never found W the least bit charming, yet people insisted that was what won them over, and he could be as dumb as anything at debates and the low expectations meant that he had "won." Palin, on the other hand, really does seem to me to have some charm, and is bound to be a bit more intelligent. So I guess, Steve, that I just don't trust the American people enough, after the last 8 years, to believe that any political revelations about her will be of any importance in the election --- even to the so-called independents. I mean, how many of those independents are simply people who aren't paying attention? Are they really likely to suddenly care about political issues, as opposed to a warm personality?

Posted by: catherineD on September 2, 2008 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK

The Palin scandal of the hour. Now TPM reports that the lobbyist she used has ties to Abramoff.

Posted by: Prup (aka Jim Benton) on September 2, 2008 at 4:02 PM | PERMALINK

Given the choices of VP candidates that were available to McCain, some of whom might have been quite formidable in the campaign, I think that Democrats and liberals are more likely beside themselves with joy that the McCain campaign so totally, completely, spectacularly, shark-jumpingly, BLEW IT.

You can certainly count me in the "beside themselves with joy" crowd. I can't believe any party could be so utterly inept at the national level. McCain rolled the dice and went with his gut because he wanted a Big Surprise to spring the day after the DNC. Unfortunately for him that's exactly what he got.

What a maroon.

Posted by: DrBB on September 2, 2008 at 4:03 PM | PERMALINK

Mr. Toad--no, his district wasn't as populous as Alaska, but each state senate district in Illinois has about 220,000 people, roughly a third of Alaska's population--and about 25 times, depending on what estimates you use, the population of Wasilla. Heck, I've been to AAA baseball games this season with more people than Wasilla...

Posted by: noplot on September 2, 2008 at 4:09 PM | PERMALINK

Does anyone know if Barack's State Senate district had a higher population than the state of Alaska? I'll bet it's close.

Palin was elected governor in 2006 with 99,619 votes (49% of votes cast) out of a voting population of 434,000. (Alaska's total population in 2006 was about 670,000).

Obama was elected Senator in 2004 with 3,527,490 votes (70% of votes cast) out of a voting population of 8,640,000. (Illinois's total population in 2004 was about 12,700,000).

(I know you asked about the Illnois State Senate, but here's what I found for now.)

Posted by: KRK on September 2, 2008 at 4:10 PM | PERMALINK

More Palin Ripping Yarns, from TPM:

Todd Palin, husband of Sarah, was a member of the secessionist Alaska Independence Party from 1995 through 2002. That's the information we just got from the Alaska Division of elections.

Probably not coincidentally, 2002 was the first time Sarah Palin ran for statewide office in Alaska.

That's 7 years' association with the group. Admittedly her husband's membership, not hers. But it makes it that much more difficult for her to distance herself from her own membership.

Posted by: DrBB on September 2, 2008 at 4:11 PM | PERMALINK

Illinois online voting results only go back to 1998.

In 1998, Obama was (re)elected with 45,486 votes (89% of votes cast).

In 2002, Obama ran unopposed and got 48,717 votes.

As noplot says, the total population for Illinois state senate districts is about 220,000.

Posted by: KRK on September 2, 2008 at 4:31 PM | PERMALINK

I'm predicting that Palin will soon be off the ticket.

Now that the press is doing the vetting McCain didn't do, each new revelation makes her look less and less presidential, more and more toxic.

Even my far-right Republican co-workers dislike her.

As soon as she becomes a national joke, she'll be thrown under the bus.

The timing will depend on what Letterman, Leno and the September 13 season premiere of Saturday Night Live do to her.

If not sooner.

Posted by: Auto on September 2, 2008 at 4:47 PM | PERMALINK

DrBB wrote: "McCain rolled the dice and went with his gut because he wanted a Big Surprise to spring the day after the DNC."

Well, neither you nor I actually know, but I tend to think it more likely that McCain himself very much wanted Joe Lieberman or Tom Ridge as his running mate, but was ordered by the Rove machine to select Palin, to appeal to the lunatic-fringe far-right wing extremist so-called "Christian" base, on whose support the whole Rove strategy depends. At this point McCain has got nothing left, except slavish obedience to the Rove machine.

Imagine what it must feel like now to be John McCain -- to look in the faces of the "press corps" who once genuinely admired him, and to know that while they will keep on shilling for him as they are well-paid to do, they nonetheless now know he is a doddering fool who has sold out whatever pride or principles he once had and is the subservient puppet of the very people who slimed him in 2000. It's no wonder he doesn't want to meet with the press anymore.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on September 2, 2008 at 4:48 PM | PERMALINK

Tell it, SecAm!

Posted by: Lucy on September 2, 2008 at 4:55 PM | PERMALINK

Can anyone really be surprised?

These are the same people who have been running the country into the ground for 8 years.

Bad judgment can pretty much be trademarked by them.

Posted by: dk on September 2, 2008 at 5:01 PM | PERMALINK

MsMuddler: thoughtful post from a smart individual. And, most thinking people would agree with you on what might go on. However, with no particular insider info, I do know that TBlossom has been in the press an awful lot for someone blowing off a subpoena and he is still maintaining his close interest in the election (anyone check on how much time he's spending with his family? Just wondering...) with connections to McSame and W. He's someone like Cheney who will never walk away from politics, if for no other reason that any other administration than one under cabal control will throw them under the bus, even Huckabee's. The political points are too easy to score for "change".

So, there is someone in the wings who is trustworthy enough for them, we don't know yet who it is. I agree that Condi's said no many times, but so did Cheney. I've also seen the Condi 2008 floater ads last year. She won't "run" but will not mind being "tapped". Jeb's interest is trying to clean up the family name that W soiled as much as a blowout diaper. He still has popularity in battleground FL, and is known to have some talent for governance, which won't be missed as a point getter. I don't think he'd throw his own bro under a bus either. On reflection, he'd be easier to control than Petraeus, who if he ran in 2012 would be running against an incumbent Obama, and the GOP doesn't want that if they are thinking. If Petraeus goes in it will be this year, not then.

Olympia, Liddy, Jodi Rell, Kay Bailey would all have fewer vetting issues, but I'm also pretty sure if told to step aside they would tell TBlossom to stuff it, so they weren't going to work. Huck, Mittens, Pawlenty of the bridges, Jindal, etc., all have issues of their own, and some were beaten soundly by the old guy. They're also not women so no PUMA vote either.

So, that's part of why Palin. She will be stepping aside for family reasons, McSame will step aside for health reasons and gloom over missing his "soul mate" (after only two meetings yet, whatever will Cindy or Vicki say?!?!?), and Rove / Cheney will be free to pick someone with enough popularity and minimal oppo ties. Huckabee might be the VP, but the Presidential pick has to be a true Bushie in all aspects.

And, that pool is mighty small to draw from right now.

Posted by: rugger0 on September 2, 2008 at 5:26 PM | PERMALINK

Can you say Palin Bounce.

More like Palin Drop.

The hard right loves loves loves them some Palin, but independents and weak Republicans are horrified. I think this is Turdblossom gambling on the fundie base again like he did in 2004, but this ain't 2004.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on September 2, 2008 at 6:37 PM | PERMALINK

Very good points rugger. All which scare me more than Palin!

Posted by: MsMuddler on September 2, 2008 at 7:34 PM | PERMALINK

"If McCain keeps Palin, he runs the risk of having a series of increasingly embarrassing revelations come out slowly between now and November."

Or, they have an idea that this weekend was the worst of it, and she will, having started with such low expectations, look better and better as people realize that although she's crazy, she is articulate, folksy, and can appeal to many voters.

I wouldn't bank on that hope of increasingly embarrassing revelations. Keep your eye on the ball, Steve.

Posted by: Ben on September 2, 2008 at 7:55 PM | PERMALINK

Truly I am the favored of the Lord, for if He did not love me so He would not have bestowed upon me such a great gift as Sarah Palin, for which gift I do humbly give thanks and praise to Him.Posted by: Stefan on September 2, 2008 at 3:29 PM | PERMALINK

Can I thank Him without being humble? I just don't do humble very well.

Posted by: e henry thripshaw on September 2, 2008 at 8:27 PM | PERMALINK
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