September 5, 2008
A SWING AND A MISS.... Baseball metaphors seem to be the preferred standard for political success lately ("homerun," "grand slam," "hit a triple"), but after watching John McCain's acceptance speech, I'm inclined to think he fouled one off. The pressure was on, but he just couldn't connect the way he'd hoped.
Hilzoy already offered up some terrific overnight analysis, but I'd just add that by any reasonable measure, McCain's speech was a bit of a dud. It wasn't necessarily a humiliating failure -- he didn't commit any obvious gaffes or embarrass himself -- but McCain had a handful of key tasks he needed to do last night, and didn't complete any of them.
With Democrats hammering McCain as "more of the same," and running ads showing him voting with Bush/Cheney at least 90% of the time, I expected McCain to go to great lengths to explain how he'd be different from Bush. He didn't; indeed, he barely tried. McCain vowed to bring "change," but a) he left us with no idea what kind of change; and b) his message was fundamentally the same as Bush's, who promised the same thing.
McCain also had to say something compelling about the economy, which the entire Republican convention took pains to ignore. At one point, McCain said, "I know some of you have been left behind in the changing economy and it often seems your government hasn't even noticed." So, terrific, McCain is going to "notice" the sorry state of the economy. But what will he do to address the situation? Apparently, he'll keep doing what Bush has been doing, and wait for it to start working.
And that, ultimately, is why the speech didn't work. McCain simply didn't have a vision or a policy agenda for the future. He has his character, and his biography, and he hopes that's enough. The message of the night, and practically the entire convention, seemed to be: "Vote for John McCain, not because he's right, but because he's John McCain."
As for the style of the speech, one has to wonder what the campaign was thinking. McCain still struggles with a teleprompter and he spoke (again) in front of a green screen. The speech wasn't well written -- the "too many cooks" phenomenon seemed obvious -- and wasn't well delivered. Gauging the reaction of the crowd, one almost expected someone to stand up and say, "Can we get Sarah Palin to come back out?"
Once the speech was over, it occurred to me that I still don't know what McCain wants to do as president, or even why he's running for president. Apparently, it has something to do with McCain's sense that he's earned it, he's entitled to it, and it's his turn, gosh darn it.
As it happens, Bob Dole made the exact same pitch. It didn't work then, either.
—Steve Benen 6:55 AM
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McCain simply didn't have a vision or a policy agenda for the future. He has his character, and his biography, and he hopes that's enough.
...because the American people overwhelmingly reject the Republican agenda (not to mention their mendacity, incompetence, corruption and divisiveness).
Posted by: Gregory on September 5, 2008 at 7:07 AM | PERMALINK
I literally couln't stay awake. I woke up for a second when my wife said "oh my god" as they dragged out a protester. Then McCain said something about 'brown noise' but I guess it was 'ground noise' then I dozed back off.
Sarah Palin was definitely the best part of the convention. She's not hard to look at. She's a crazy fundamentalist who's less qualified to be president than I am, but sheis attractive.
Posted by: Haik Bedrosian on September 5, 2008 at 7:09 AM | PERMALINK
Oh my.
Compared to Obama, this man was a Vertical Cadaver!
Posted by: Monk-in-Training on September 5, 2008 at 7:14 AM | PERMALINK
Apparently, it has something to do with McCain's sense that he's earned it, he's entitled to it, and it's his turn, gosh darn it.
As it happens, Bob Dole made the exact same pitch. It didn't work then, either.
Erm, not to mention someone with the initials "HC"...
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on September 5, 2008 at 7:24 AM | PERMALINK
Great analysis, Steve. Count Chocula's (McCain) sense of entitlement is palpable. This fossil offers nothing but more debt, more pollution, more war and more economic malaise.
And Good God the choppers on that man! - I haven't seen teeth like that since I saw a jawbone from Paleolithic man at the Smithsonian. Someone should inform McCain that you can now get these things called whitening strips at your local Walgreens or CVC.
Cindy McCain's skin on her face also looks so tight from all the facelifts that she would bounce like a Superball if she fell and landed on it.
Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on September 5, 2008 at 7:24 AM | PERMALINK
I think McCain gave the perfect speech for a country tired of platitudes and empty promises; now we can see that he truly is a giant windbag who has no intention of changing a fargin' thing.
Too bad that for most of our thoughtful fellow Americans simply saying that he's different -- and a war hero -- is enough for them to cast their well-reasoned votes for him.
I wish I was more optimistic about Obama's chances here; I love the guy and what he's trying to do. But falling short of a major gaffe, or a stroke, McCain's ridiculously shallow and self-promoting speech was exactly what he needed to allow average Americans to be fooled again.
Posted by: Ed on September 5, 2008 at 7:25 AM | PERMALINK
I think McCain gave the perfect speech for a country tired of platitudes and empty promises; now we can see that he truly is a giant windbag who has no intention of changing a fargin' thing.
Too bad that for most of our thoughtful fellow Americans simply saying that he's different -- and a war hero -- is enough for them to cast their well-reasoned votes for him.
I wish I was more optimistic about Obama's chances here; I love the guy and what he's trying to do. But falling short of a major gaffe, or a stroke, McCain's ridiculously shallow and self-promoting speech was exactly what he needed to allow average Americans to be fooled again.
Posted by: Ed on September 5, 2008 at 7:25 AM | PERMALINK
He didn't have much to say about Global Warming, except a one-liner about how the All Energies Approach (drill everywhere, nuclear power plants, "clean" coal, etc) is going to "save the planet".
To tell you the truth, it doesn't matter how hot the planet gets, it will still be here. The planet doesn't need to be "saved". It is the atmosphere that is the problem.
McCain-Palin are in deep with Big Oil and they want nothing to do with Global Warming, just like the current administration. We will get more of the same.
Posted by: Marko on September 5, 2008 at 7:29 AM | PERMALINK
Josh Marshall said the green screen was actually due to the camera shot. What we saw in the background was actually the lawn of Walter Reed Middle School in North Hollywood. He speculates that the techie charged with finding a picture of Walter Reed Medical Center goofed...
Posted by: on September 5, 2008 at 7:36 AM | PERMALINK
"Cindy McCain's skin on her face also looks so tight from all the facelifts that she would bounce like a Superball if she fell and landed on it."
Remember Wallon Flowers and his puppet "Madame"? Cindy is looking an awefull lot like Madame. In a few years and some work she'll be in Joker territory.
I think the most glaring thing about the Republicans' convention was how vacant it was. There was nothing but shrill insults and bitter rancor. McCain's speech was like a void, dead space. Last night his abrupt about face to embrace a message of "change" was as sad and desperate as it was cynical transparent. It was obvious he and his party hadn't a clue what "change" means or entails. It was just a sleazy attempt to co-opt a much more gifted rival's theme.
Sarah Palin. An agent of change? She's more an agent of Karl Rove than an agent of change. Her extremist views and insulting manner are mired in the dynamics of these past disastrous eith years. She made a big splash with her venom and smile, but like something too syrapy and sweet people will have their fill of her soon.
Posted by: Saint Zak on September 5, 2008 at 7:40 AM | PERMALINK
Last week, Obama said, "But I stand before you tonight because all across America something is stirring. What the nay-sayers don't understand is that this election has never been about me. It's been about you."
Last night, John McCain said (to paraphrase): "This election is about me, and what a fine gent I am."
Posted by: Jules on September 5, 2008 at 7:49 AM | PERMALINK
But he's a POW!!!
That's all anyone needs to know about his qualifications. He suffered for and was saved by his country. He's got the scars to prove it.
Who needs a vision, a plan? He doesn't. He's a POW.
Posted by: evagrius on September 5, 2008 at 8:01 AM | PERMALINK
The dems delivered a knowckout convention with lots of meat int it. The Repubs delivered a light weight, more of hte same, typical polical crap. Palin does noting for me (and I am a woman) but shows McCains desparation.
Posted by: ko23 on September 5, 2008 at 8:03 AM | PERMALINK
It's hard work to run for prisoner of War of the United States. Hard, hard, work.
I guess his plan is to run as Prisoner of War. Let's see, he had a "captive" audience, "fear "speech, and a "no-surrender" playbook. Yep. That'll get him back to the "camp". I don't think McAce ever left Viet Nam. He still thinks he's at war there and hates losing so much he's sold his soul to the very shit heads who killed his spirit for the second time in 2000. Pathetic.
Posted by: Stevio on September 5, 2008 at 8:04 AM | PERMALINK
Props to the person who coined the phrase that "change" for a Republican is different people doing the same thing. It's funny, apt, and accurate.
Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on September 5, 2008 at 8:08 AM | PERMALINK
The "notice" rhetoric is straight out of Bush too! In 2004 especially, he would say something like, "we know its tough out there for working families" then he got re-elected and did nothing to change it.
Or he would say stuff like, "it is my job to help out working families" and then clearly not do his job.
I listened to a bit of the McCain speech. It was flat, it was boring, it was trite. Then I turned on the Obama speech (I have it on TiVo) and was blown away again by its depth, passion, and complexity. Wait till these two get into a debate. As long as the media doesn't give McCain a sympathy victory (like they did with Bush in 2000 and 2004), it will be a slaughter.
Posted by: Joshua on September 5, 2008 at 8:17 AM | PERMALINK
there really should have been a ticker running across the screen warning viewers to refrain from holding heavy objects while viewing. I nearly threw my beer, twice.
my knee jerk reaction to his fake smile was vommiting.
we need to get out there & keep the 'stirring' alive so all of us have our eyes on the prize. O is no John Kerry, he's already shown us that. he's not done taking aim at the permanent pow.
speaking of that, my dad is absolutely outraged at his gall to act as the only pow in vietnam. and as for his position...he may have gained more respect from the rest of the vets (like my dad) if he'd served on the ground instead of looking down on everyone else from the comfort of a replacement jet (since he liked to bang those up too)
ENOUGH!!
Posted by: vwmeggs on September 5, 2008 at 8:25 AM | PERMALINK
I expected McCain to go to great lengths to explain how he'd be different from Bush.
He can't because he's not.
I really hope at some point that the McBush/McSame chorus becomes so deafening that it is brought up in a debate. I can easily imagine it, the moderator saying to McCain "Senator Obama claims that your policies are just like Bush. Name 3 major issues where you differ." Imagine McCain sitting there, stunned, without any answers. Seiously, what can he say? That he used to differ with Bush on a bunch of things but now they're pretty much in lockstep?
Posted by: zoe kentucky from pittsburgh on September 5, 2008 at 8:35 AM | PERMALINK
Baseball metaphors could allow more flexibility: With 2 on, McCain grounds into a double play. Runner at 3rd, 2 out.
Posted by: apm on September 5, 2008 at 8:47 AM | PERMALINK
Once the speech was over, it occurred to me that I still don't know what McCain wants to do as president, or even why he's running for president. Apparently, it has something to do with McCain's sense that he's earned it, he's entitled to it, and it's his turn, gosh darn it.
And in that sense, his acceptance speech was the gold ring that he's been grabbing at for all these years. The winning of the presidency is everything. The functioning as president is secondary. This is why he doesn't see his age as an issue. If he can get thru the next two months and win the election, he's fulfilled his lifelong dream, and this is why his speech last night felt more like a testimonial dinner than the kickoff for a new quest.
Posted by: gbear on September 5, 2008 at 8:54 AM | PERMALINK
was it just me, or did the whole part about Palin seem like, "Wow, this is really bombing, WAIT! I know how to get cheers..."
Posted by: paula on September 5, 2008 at 9:51 AM | PERMALINK
Once the speech was over, it occurred to me that I still don't know what McCain wants to do as president, or even why he's running for president. Apparently, it has something to do with McCain's sense that he's earned it, he's entitled to it, and it's his turn, gosh darn it.
For a while now, the Republican Party has had a habit of awarding its presidential nomination according to a system of primogeniture -- it goes to whoever is next in line. Reagan failed to wrest the nomination from Ford in 1976, so he got it in 1980. When Reagan was done, his vice president, Old Bush, prevailed after fighting Bob Dole, who thought he was next in line, perhaps as a result of his having been Ford's running mate in 1976. George W. Bush's nomination in 2000 doesn't exactly fit the pattern unless you subscribe to the theory that his being awarded the prize was based at least in part on GOP honchos' thinking that some voters would confuse him with his father. Bush vanquished McCain in 2000, so now it's McCain's turn.
In terms of change, "more of the same," etc., it may be worth noting that the McCain-Palin ticket is the first GOP ticket since 1952 (except for 1964's, Goldwater-Miller) that doesn't have a Nixon, a Bush, or a Dole on it. I'm convinced that if he'd had a different last name, Jeb Bush would have been an ideal running mate for McCain. Elizabeth Dole, not so much.
Posted by: navamske on September 5, 2008 at 10:07 AM | PERMALINK
Steve Benen wrote: "The message of the night, and practically the entire convention, seemed to be: 'Vote for John McCain, not because he's right, but because he's John McCain.'"
Well, duh. The Republicans have made it very clear that they are running on a fake, phony, focus-group-tested, scripted, completely bogus image and not on substance. They are not even pretending to offer any substance. They really have no choice, since they have nothing whatsoever of substance to offer the American people, except more blatantly criminal and corrupt government of, by and for America's Ultra-Rich Ruling Class, Inc.
Posted by: SecularAnimist on September 5, 2008 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK
What do you mean that McCain didn't tell us about how he's different than Bush? Of course he did!
He was a POW!!!
Apparently, that makes all the difference. He loves his country SOOOOO much!
(By the end of his speech, I got the feeling that if we don't go out with him, he's gonna cry.)
By the way, did you know he was a POW?
And what was that bit tacked on at the end, about serving your community? Was he suggesting we might want to become community organizers???
Posted by: biggerbox on September 5, 2008 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK
A total disaster. Even the audience showed it. I missed the sleeping ones, but I saw, time and utime again, people talking to each other, or just ignoring what was going on, or staring with puzzlement if they were paqying attention. Others were just waiting for a cue-line to wave banners, and sometimes they missed it.
And that was Republicans in the hall. Somehow I doubt if even 18 million -- the lowest night of the Democrats -- tuned in or stayed tuned in.
And yes, the loudest applause was for Palin mentions. There are still those Republicans who think she is the 'saviour of the ticket.' They'll be changing their tune the more that comes out about her, but they believe it now, and she is the real 'rock star' in the race.
But there were three things that were absolutely predictable about last night:
1) McCain wouldn't come close to Obama -- but I don't think anybody thought he'd be this bad
2) There would be some commenters who would buy into his 'let's win votes for Republicans by attacking Republicans' strategy -- and there were some. Not all the initial comments were as bad as the ones Steve quoted.
3) That there would be a few commenters here who would proclaim "It was a lousy speech, but it won McCain the election, because the American people are so stupid!"
Well, they aren't.
This is the attitude it seems like I have to rant against about once a week. This is the true 'elitist' attitude that is the germ of truth that the Republicans cover with lies.
It feels sooo good for us to go 'Democrats smart, Rewpublicans stupid' and pat ourselves on the back for being Democrats. And of course, if this were true, the more Republicans there are, the more exclusive our own self-congratulatory group is, and the better it makes us look.
And it is true that the majority of intelligent people who follow politics are Democrats, and that number has been increasing with every blunder, corruption, and lie coming from the Republicans.
But even then, there are intelligent people who do make a case for some Republican principles -- and yes, there are some, even if the Republicans don't follow them. I happen to believe they are wrong to argue that 'less government is better,' that 'bureaucracy gets in the way of people,' or that 'if corporations prosper, this will create more jobs and the whole country will do better.' Wrong, yes, but I won't insult the intelligence of the people who argue this way, because there are cases to be made for all of these, even if they are cases I'd love to refute.
And there are people who remember 9/11 and are afraid of 'Islamic terrorism.' (And not entirely without reason. Most Muslims are not terrorists, but a good part of the terrorists are Muslims -- though our home-grown ones are more likely extreme Christians.) And maybe they still don't know the difference between Shi'a and Sunni, don't realize that secular governments of Muslim states are anathema to the Bin Laden types, etc. They are just afraid, and celebrate any 'positive action.'
But enough with the small minority of high-information Republicans. There are plenty of Low Information Voters out there -- and a good number of them, a minority, but still a decent proportion of them, are Democrats.
I've said, repeatedly, that those 'moronic, mouth-breathing hillbillies' from West Virginia have repeatedly voted for Democratic Congressmen and Senators, that the last Republican Senator they elected was in 1942, that they've always had a majority of Democrats in Congress (except in 1946), that there has only been one Republican Representative who has been reelected since the sixties, and that, again, since 1940, they've never replaced one Republican Representative with another.
And y'know, LIVs may not 'get' the issues, but they can be impressed by rhetoric, and we sure as hell have this on our side. (Of course, one type of rhetoric they are impressed with is what they hear from their preachers -- but they aren't goign to hear as much of that for McCain, for a lot of reasons, even with Palin on the ticket.)
But the key in this, and most elections are the middle-information voters, people who think politics is important, but still would rather watch sports, people who vote, but don't spend hours reading up on the candidates, people who are affected by the choices they make, and who are frequently scared by what's going on around them. They are the drivers who see the high price of gas and want to hear a 'quick fix' and have to be convinced that it won't work. They are the ones scared of losing their jobs -- and aren't sure if the reason for this is the corporations or the government. These are the patriots who aren't sure if patriotism means 'country right or wrong' or 'if wrong, make it right.'
These are the people that are being fought over. And we'll have them, but not instantaneously. That's why it is still a close race, and why it will be less and less close as it goes on.
And why it does help if we talk to them, ourselves, instead of just giving up on them. They'll listen to people they know when political speeches and ads just confuse or annoy them.
Posted by: Prup (aka Jim Benton) on September 5, 2008 at 11:25 AM | PERMALINK
It matters that the McCain-Palin campagin has begun saying that they will change things in Washington. Their response to "More of the Same" is "No, we're not." The major sign of this message is how seldom George W. Bush's name was mentioned at this convention -- almost never. Fallows noted this curiousity in his blog at The Atlantic. Sen. McCain even said "the President" not President Bush. That the Republicans themselves are rejecting their own incumbent is significant. This morning, on a BBC Newshour broadcast over my local NPR station, Trent Lott was interviewed and said the Republicans were confessing (he used that word) how they had messed up these last eight years and that the American people should forgive them because they won't do it again. "More of the Same." "No, we're not." I agree -- they're worse! How gullible do they thing we are!
Posted by: jpeckjr on September 5, 2008 at 11:31 AM | PERMALINK
My favorite quote of the night was when McCain said:
"Let me say something to the old, big spending, do nothing, me first, country second crowd... change is coming!!"
*Smiles*
Does he realize the irony in this?
Hearing that line made my night!
Posted by: Jon on September 5, 2008 at 11:50 AM | PERMALINK
McCain vowed to bring "change," but a) he left us with no idea what kind of change; and b) his message was fundamentally the same as Bush's, who promised the same thing.
I was thinking that a good web ad for the Obama team would be to show clips of McCain's RNC speeches and put his quotes next to similar quotes from Bush's two speeches. Show that Republicans will make all kinds of promises, but never deliver.
Posted by: TG Chicago on September 5, 2008 at 12:55 PM | PERMALINK
Yeah..hmmm, how are those Bush Tax Cuts helping the economy again??
Trickle down economics might have worked in a more closed economy. The problem is that the trickle is syphoned off to China, Indonesia, South America, Mexico, India. That is why John Bush's economic plan works for the rest of the world, but not the US.
Posted by: JWK on September 5, 2008 at 2:36 PM | PERMALINK