September 15, 2008
AIG
From the WSJ:
"American International Group Inc. was facing a severe cash crunch last night as ratings agencies cut the firm's credit ratings, forcing the giant insurer to raise $14.5 billion to cover its obligations.
With AIG now tottering, a crisis that began with falling home prices and went on to engulf Wall Street has reached one of the world's largest insurance companies, threatening to intensify the financial storm and greatly complicate the government's efforts to contain it. The company, whose stock fell 61% yesterday, is such a big player in insuring risk for institutions around the world that its failure could shake the global financial system.
AIG has been scrambling to raise as much as $75 billion to weather the crisis, and people close to the situation said that if the insurer doesn't secure fresh funding by Wednesday, it may have no choice but to opt for a bankruptcy-court filing.
"The situation is dire," a person close to AIG said."
The NYT:
"Ratings agencies had threatened to downgrade the insurance giant's credit rating by Monday morning, a step that could allow counterparties to A.I.G.'s swap contracts to require A.I.G. to post collateral of up to $13.3 billion. One person close to the firm said that if such an event occurred, A.I.G. might survive for only 48 hours to 72 hours.
The urgency of the talks grew by late Monday as A.M. Best Company, a credit rating organization specialized in insurance and health care companies, downgraded the credit of A.I.G. and several of its major subsidiaries. Fitch Ratings also downgraded A.I.G.'s credit Monday evening.
Standard & Poor's downgraded its long-term and short-term counterparty ratings on A.I.G. Monday evening. Moody's also cut A.I.G.'s senior debt rating to a level requiring A.I.G. to post collateral of $1.1 billion.
But none of those downgrades appeared to lead to events requiring A.I.G. to post billions of dollars of collateral to its swap counterparties. Its swap contracts cite downgrades by Moody's and Standard & Poor's of A.I.G.'s long-term senior debt ratings, and such changes had not been announced as of Monday evening. Being downgraded by two other widely watched ratings agencies, and having its standing as a counterparty by Standard & Poor's downgraded, did not bode well for A.I.G., however.
People briefed on the matter said that if JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs were able to raise a $75 billion credit line by Tuesday, it could avert the all-important debt downgrades by Standard & Poor's and Moody's. But it was unclear whether they could put together such a complicated package in time."
As of this writing, the Nikkei is down 5.06%, and the Hang Seng is down 5.81%. Lehman Brothers has started selling large quantities of stuff. And we haven't even gotten to Washington Mutual yet ...
—Hilzoy 11:25 PM
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The Asian markets were closed on Monday, so this is the fallout from the U.S. markets yesterday.
However, 5.5% is still bad!
Posted by: mickslam on September 15, 2008 at 11:44 PM | PERMALINK
Lehman Brothers was founded in 1850. You know it's a crisis when the bankruptcies are hitting companies older than John McCain.
Posted by: Max Power on September 15, 2008 at 11:44 PM | PERMALINK
I can't help but think the economy would be in better shape if we weren't spending a trillion or so in Iraq.
Posted by: Arachnae on September 16, 2008 at 12:07 AM | PERMALINK
FORCE CONGRESS TO IMPEACH, call Pelosi @1-202-225-0100 DEMAND IMPEACHMENT.
Posted by: Mike Meyer on September 16, 2008 at 12:08 AM | PERMALINK
You would do everyone a great service if you made explicit the difference between investment 'banks' -- which are more like casinos -- and deposit banks.
There could be a run on bank deposits because people don't know the difference, and that kind of panic could do real damage. Deposits are insured, and people would not lose their money, but because Republicans don't want an informed electorate the average person -- including all those red-state fucks-ups who think Sarah Palin is a savior -- this could still get out of control.
....
On second thought, this would be well-deserved carnage, so forget I said anything.
Posted by: The Phantom on September 16, 2008 at 12:11 AM | PERMALINK
Pretty soon you are going to start seeing quality middle sized and larger companies going down as they become unable to secure short term financing. Once manufacturing firms start going down because failing banks are calling their credit lines we will all be in a world of hurt.
Republican ideologues should never be allowed near the levers of power again. Phil Gramme ought to be in jail.
Posted by: Ron Byers on September 16, 2008 at 12:13 AM | PERMALINK
AIG was big time. When I was in graduate school, people salivated at the possibility of getting its summer internship program in country risk rating.
I can't help but think the economy would be in better shape if we weren't spending a trillion or so in Iraq. Posted by: Arachnae
No shit. Iraq really is the primary touchstone for every problem facing the country right now. Just below this would be Greenspan testifying before Congress that lowering taxes would be fine and that paying down the national debt was bad. Fucking idiot.
Posted by: Jeff II on September 16, 2008 at 12:15 AM | PERMALINK
You would do everyone a great service if you made explicit the difference between investment 'banks' -- which are more like casinos -- and deposit banks.Posted by: The Phantom
In terms of their respective effects on the economy, the difference is pretty meaningless at this point. In any case, WaMu's troubles are pretty much what took down Bear-Sterns and the same as what tanked F&F - bad RE lending.
Posted by: Jeff II on September 16, 2008 at 12:18 AM | PERMALINK
now that the dow is the same as it was in april 1999, does this mean we can now party like it was 1999 again?
Posted by: karen marie on September 16, 2008 at 12:27 AM | PERMALINK
We are entering very interesting times here. It is safe to say the house of derivatives is coming unglued at a fast pace and given the size of the notional exposure (several tens of trillions of dollars for each of the top few banks/brokers; yes, trillion with a T) and the lack of disclosure surrounding derivatives, a lot of shit will hit the fan. The Fed is obviously working overtime to prevent this, but these are the same folks who brought us this disaster. Why do we trust them to know how to fix a mess they didn't have the wisdom to prevent (despite warnings from the likes of Buffett and scores of others)?
Posted by: rational on September 16, 2008 at 12:35 AM | PERMALINK
"Larry Kudlow on CNBC notes that theres a ton of private equity money dying to dive in, but terrible regulatory environment doesnt allow it"
STOP THE INSANITY!
Here's what I would LOVE to see:
S&P and Moody's have cut Larry Kudlow's economic forecasting rating to JUNK.
Posted by: John Henry on September 16, 2008 at 12:36 AM | PERMALINK
"Pretty soon you are going to start seeing quality middle sized and larger companies going down as they become unable to secure short term financing."
I'm pretty sure this is true. But it affects high tech startups as well. One of my clients lost their financing last week. It seems the pool of money for new product development is drying up. The money being used to shore up shaky financial institutions has to come from somewhere. Apparently, it's the money my clients use to finance new inventions. And that's bad. Not just for me, but for everyone.
America doesn't have the advantages we used to. Our manufacturing can be matched or exceed by dozens of countries with healthier economies. Our education is substandard by the standards of industrialized countries. We don't really have the energy and mineral resources to create any kind of export economy (or even stop importing). The only real advantage we have is that we Americans have traditionally been unusually creative in developing new technologies. But if we can't fund new ventures, we take away that advantage. Without new development, we essentially become China, but with higher wages. And if that happens, you know what's coming next....
Posted by: fostert on September 16, 2008 at 12:58 AM | PERMALINK
John, what's new. Conservatives hate regulation as much as criminals hate the law.
Posted by: rational on September 16, 2008 at 1:02 AM | PERMALINK
I understand why BofA paid top dollar (in stock) to acquire MER. They have shitloads of derivatives and want to avoid an unwinding of those derivatives. But if someone like Buffett, who has no crappy derivatives and who was wise enough to stay away from the shenanigans practiced by Wall Street, has money to invest, why would they be interested in stepping up now to prevent a melt down of the irresponsible financial companies? Their interests are better served when they stay away and pick up the pieces after many of the crappy companies hit the floor.
You would think all the bad news is priced in, but the banking index (BKX) is still trading above July lows. Clearly, there is still a lot of denial.
Posted by: rational on September 16, 2008 at 1:16 AM | PERMALINK
"Larry Kudlow on CNBC notes that there�s a ton of private equity money dying to dive in, but terrible regulatory environment doesn�t allow it"
I think Kudlow is on a constant mission to say something even more stupid than the stupidest thing he said yesterday. He's got his work cut out tomorrow.
Many of those regulations actually require outside private equity, not discourage it. AIG just got released from those requirements so they can stay afloat through more leveraging. The reason these companies have trouble getting that outside equity is because they're making bad investments. If we take those regulations away, companies making bad investments will just set up shell companies to further leverage themselves. Just like Enron did, only legal. And it seems AIG is getting a special "we'll let you do it like Enron, but without the shell companies" pass. This is getting ugly.
Posted by: fostert on September 16, 2008 at 1:20 AM | PERMALINK
ROFLMAO
Geee, are the high rollin scum getting their heads handed to them ? Good.
After China & the rest of the SCO come in and clean up what sort of life do you think we all are gonna be leading ?
They set us up & now they are taking us down. Ignorant is as ignorant does.
I`ll acknowledge that people are actually serious when I see people in the streets like the late 1960s.
Think about the end of "V for Vendetta"...
How many times do you people have to "pee on the fence" before ya learn not to ?
"There are three kinds of men:
1. The ones that learn by reading.
2. The few who learn by observation.
3. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves." - Will Rogers
Posted by: daCascadian on September 16, 2008 at 1:26 AM | PERMALINK
I’m wondering if BofA can actually pull off the Merrill takeover when it still has only started digesting Countrywide.
Plus, what if, 20-30 years from now, BofA goes belly-up?
Posted by: SocraticGadfly on September 16, 2008 at 2:42 AM | PERMALINK
We can't let key institutions such as Social Security and Medicare and businesses such as Ford, GM, and Chrysler fail. The government must step in.
My plan is to sell the "m" states (Mexifornia, Mexas, Mexizona, Mexinois, and Nuevo Mexico) to China to raise a few bucks and to create a buffer between us and all the Arab terrorists who are entering the US across the Mexican border.
Posted by: Luther on September 16, 2008 at 2:43 AM | PERMALINK
"AIG just got released from those requirements so they can stay afloat through more leveraging."
I should note that Bernanke is faced with a very difficult situation. I think he's handling it as well as he can. There aren't any good options, so I can't really criticize him for taking bad ones.
Posted by: fostert on September 16, 2008 at 3:34 AM | PERMALINK
I am looking forward to the new ManU kit that will be available for Christmas
Posted by: red devils on September 16, 2008 at 3:36 AM | PERMALINK
The most important feature of this crisis is that of firesale.
Those with enormous cash reserves have the opportunity to buy, control.
Those without cash reserves, have to borrow or sell.
Its a predatory environment primarily.
Posted by: Richard Witty on September 16, 2008 at 5:19 AM | PERMALINK
When working for an insurance underwriting subsidiary of AIG from 1977 to 1996 the ethic was to underwrite for a profit. Cash flow underwriting was anathema. Perhaps "Hank" Greenberg's role at the helm is worthy of examination. Who was it that led this organisation into the world of derivatives and other sophisticated financial products in the first place? These products have never impressed me as being anything more than a form of wagering and as any sucessful gambler knows "You don't bet any more than you can afford to loose". That adage obviously wasn't at the forefront of anybody's conciousness at 70 Pine Street in recent times. At least I can consider myself one of the lucky ones. I sold the majority of my stock holding some years ago when the price was at it's high. ot a pretty for it too. The stock certificates for the holding I have left will make interesting wallpaper in the bathroom. Nice design, quality paper, pretty blue & white (no shades of red).
Posted by: LJ (Laurie) Rich on September 16, 2008 at 6:23 AM | PERMALINK
When working for an insurance underwriting subsidiary of AIG from 1977 to 1996 the ethic was to underwrite for a profit. Cash flow underwriting was anathema. Perhaps "Hank" Greenberg's role at the helm is worthy of examination. Who was it that led this organisation into the world of derivatives and other sophisticated financial products in the first place? These products have never impressed me as being anything more than a form of wagering and as any sucessful gambler knows "You don't bet any more than you can afford to loose". That adage obviously wasn't at the forefront of anybody's conciousness at 70 Pine Street in recent times. At least I can consider myself one of the lucky ones. I sold the majority of my stock holding some years ago when the price was at it's high. Got a pretty penny for it too. The stock certificates for the holding I have left will make interesting wallpaper in the bathroom. Nice design, quality paper, pretty blue & white (no shades of red).
Posted by: LJ (Laurie) Rich on September 16, 2008 at 6:25 AM | PERMALINK
So is this Armageddon?
If so, shouldn't Warren Buffett, et al., be heading to that famous safe-haven for sinners--you know, Alaska?
Posted by: on September 16, 2008 at 7:08 AM | PERMALINK
The sad part about all of this is how, in the end, there will be plenty of examples of both political parties contributing to the mess (allowing both the claim it wasn't their fault). Presently, Governor Paterson (D) is allowing AIG to borrow money from it's NY insurance subsidiaries (state regulators had to make an exemption to allow this). While I'm sure he's doing this to try to save a large and important financial company headquartered in his state, AIG appears to be beyond saving. Should AIG go under after these loans are made, they will probably take with them the pension benefits, annuities and other policies a lot of ordinary people are depending on. It is the wrong thing to do even if he thinks it is for the right reason.
While the NY subsidiaries have a state guarantee fund as a backstop (financed by the insurance industry), it would probably be woefully undersized to provide full benefits in the event these subsidiaries go under.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/15/AR2008091501213.html?hpid=topnews
Posted by: chrisbo on September 16, 2008 at 7:12 AM | PERMALINK
"Many of those regulations actually require outside private equity, not discourage it. AIG just got released from those requirements so they can stay afloat through more leveraging"
Simply moving already printed paper across oceans is a useless endeavor. Money is merely a means of exchange. It is not wealth in itself. A nation's real material wealth is the sum total of usable goods and services it produces. The foundation of this production is the population in any given locale. Wealth is created by people and for people. America stopped being that kind of real wealth generator a long time ago.
Posted by: on September 16, 2008 at 7:13 AM | PERMALINK
The myth of perpetuawar has been revealed. Soon after we went into Iraq in 2003, the sub prime lending spiked, as folks assummed that it was a good time to join in the frenzy.
The cost of the war is perhaps 2 trillion dollars and I can't say we have much to show for our efforts other than a lot of pissed off people and 60+ bases all over the desert.
The bailout of Bear Stearns happened after Spitzer was outed (he was on to those creeps). Bailing out FM2 was a strange move by folks who bow to the god of capitalism, a blatant corporate
welfare handout.
Lehman was left to die.
Saving AIG may slow the meltdown of the world's markets.
It's greed folks. Speculative, predatory and ruthless greed that has caused all this.
God bush america!
Posted by: Tom Nicholson on September 16, 2008 at 7:42 AM | PERMALINK
An article in today's WaPo states that Lehman owes its creditors $613 billion. Lehman's assets will be sold off by a court to pay off the creditors. The assets? Well, mostly they're in the form of shaky mortgages. "No one could have anticipated" that running up over half a trillion in debt based on sub-prime mortgages might possibly have bad consequences.
How many people had to turn a blind eye to this stupidity for it to have been carried so far?
Posted by: Dennis - SGMM on September 16, 2008 at 8:09 AM | PERMALINK
John, what's new. Conservatives hate regulation as much as criminals hate the law.
Oh, snap!
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Posted by: lobbygow on September 16, 2008 at 8:27 AM | PERMALINK
Remember the AIG ad with the awkward looking kid waking his parents up to talk about his worries about their investments? Mom and Dad tell him they're with AIG, and he goes back to bed reassured.
Somebody find that kid, he needs to worry after all.
Posted by: Sebastian-PGP on September 16, 2008 at 12:35 PM | PERMALINK