September 17, 2008
THE EXPECTATIONS GAME.... Believe it or not, the first presidential debate is next week. With that in mind, the drive to set expectations is on.
Four years ago, the Bush campaign knew exactly how to play the game. Matthew Dowd, the Bush-Cheney campaign's chief strategist, told the Washington Post that John Kerry "is very formidable, and probably the best debater ever to run for president." "I'm not joking," Dowd added. "I think he's better than Cicero," the ancient Roman orator.
The goal, obviously, was to build up expectations that Kerry couldn't meet. It's common sense -- partisans on both sides want the public to expect their guy to be average and other guy to be great.
I found it odd, then, that Frank Donatelli, the deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee, seemed to have this backwards while talking to the National Review.
"Starting early next week, I think you'll see a lot of interest in Friday's debate. It may draw the highest numbers we've ever seen, and I think that for the v.p. debate, you'll see a tremendous amount of interest. We feel good about that. Senator McCain is much better at giving answers off the cuff, and Obama has some trouble when he doesn't have his teleprompter."
I see this a lot in far-right circles, this notion that Obama is a clumsy speaker when he doesn't have a teleprompter. It seems like a silly thing to say given that Obama tends to do extremely well with a teleprompter, while McCain is pretty clumsy whether he has a teleprompter or not. Indeed, if Obama needed a script to get through a debate, voters might have noticed over the course of dozens of debates during the Democratic nominating process.
But more importantly, the RNC's message actually helps the Obama campaign by raising expectations for McCain and lowering them for Obama.
As Oliver Willis, with tongue planted firmly in cheek, put it, "Folks, this is panic time! Sen. Obama might not even be able to form words as Sen. McCain verbally pounds him to a bloody pulp. It's gonna be a moider. Remember, Barack Obama simply cannot debate without a teleprompter. John McCain will talk circles around him. Make sure you tell that to everyone you know. Oh, and make sure they tune into the debate."
—Steve Benen 1:21 PM
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The way McCain stumbles and stammers I'm reminded of visiting elderly relatives and my mother shooing everyone from the room because some sort of medicine or procedure was required to re-establish lucidity in the confused object of our travels.
Posted by: steve duncan on September 17, 2008 at 1:25 PM | PERMALINK
Kerry won all three debates, and the stupids still voted for Bush. That tells you everything you need to know about the importance of debates WHEN A SITTING PRESIDENT IS RUNNING.
As for now...well, things are different. The Republicans inherently think Obama can't talk because he's black, and all blacks -- from the RNC point of view -- are stupid unless spoon-fed by a white guy: see also Alan Keyes. They also think McCain is a charmer, because he's got his trademark fratboy grin and his somber serious-patriot look down pat.
Unfortunately, voters are looking for credibility this time, and McCain's got very little. And the press is going to have to ask some tough questions, beyond the policy basics. And McCain is going to have to keep lying -- baldly, right to America -- and that's going to be a tough row to hoe given the way the press is leaning.
So here's my prediction: McCain gets a nosebleed in debate #2, Palin tries to sucker Biden into a remark that she can call sexist (something along the lines of, "Governor Palin is...." at which point she pounces), and in debate #3 John McCain calls Obama a black man running for president.
Posted by: The Phantom on September 17, 2008 at 1:27 PM | PERMALINK
Will the media give McCain a victory as long as he doesn't stand up there and drool, like they did with Bush? That's the only question. Considering the media's turn on McCain as he has clammed up and ceased grilling, I'd say it's not too likely. Obama had tons of practice from the debate and will come out firing.
Posted by: Joshua on September 17, 2008 at 1:27 PM | PERMALINK
It could be more trying to put Obama on the defense.
They keep going after the very thing they themselves are weak at and instead they project it onto Obama/Biden (dishonest, elitist, lack of knowledge/experience, unfair, hits below the belt, all talk and no substance).
Posted by: on September 17, 2008 at 1:32 PM | PERMALINK
McCain is going to be in his element since he loves town halls and has a strong command of all of the issues. Obama is all rhetoric and no substance. Plus, he does his best work when he's reading--so I expect him to perform horrible against McCain. Hopefully the Obama campaign's ground game is together, because the debates could get ugly. The best we can hope is that Obama doesn't commit a major gaffe.
Posted by: Keith on September 17, 2008 at 1:34 PM | PERMALINK
Both McCain and Palin are good at one line zingers. And since no low-info voters will be watching, this is all that will matter to them. Watch their poll numbers go up if McCain goes postal. It's sad, but this isn't the nation it once was.
Posted by: Danp on September 17, 2008 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
I honestly have never spoken a word that wasn't on the teleprompter that I keep in front of me at all times. That's why I'm such a masterful speaker.
Posted by: Doctor Biobrain on September 17, 2008 at 1:37 PM | PERMALINK
Frankly, I was unimpressed with Obama's debating skills. In this close race, it won't be enough to hold his own against McCain.
Obama needs to wipe McCain off the map, and it would be helpful if he'd study the Bill Clinton tapes from '92 and '94 (he might even learn a thing or two from Ross Perot's performance in those debates).
Obama should also be ready for McCain to bring up freak issues pushed at RedState.com, among others, that even Stephanopolous hasn't familiarized himself with. The format of the first debate includes unmoderated discussion between the two candidates, and without a doubt, McCain will be in attack mode.
I don't mind tellin' ya, I'm nervous as hell.
Posted by: CJ on September 17, 2008 at 1:38 PM | PERMALINK
"McCain is going to be in his element since he loves town halls and has a strong command of all of the issues."
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McCain has a strong command of all the issues? That's, um, rather charitable in the extreme.
Posted by: steve duncan on September 17, 2008 at 1:39 PM | PERMALINK
There's also the point that the far right doesn't care. Most of them are still fawning over Palin, even at this point. So no matter what happens in the debate, they'll still be loving on McCain, inventor of the Blackberry, POW, Savior of our Nation, the only one who can protect us from Terra and Obama.
Posted by: delagar on September 17, 2008 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK
Obama tries to answer questions rather than repeat talking points. The only time I thought he wasn't on his game was the ABC debacle. But if Jim Lehrer is the host, I expect sanity.
Posted by: Freedom Fry on September 17, 2008 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK
I hope Jim Lehrer as moderator doesn't allow McCain to become a bully in the pulpit.
Posted by: on September 17, 2008 at 1:41 PM | PERMALINK
Obama is all rhetoric and no substance
And how would you explain endorsements from former Fed Chairman Paul Volker and three former SEC chairmen, including two appointed by Bushes?
Obama does use a lot of "uhs" when he talks extemporaneously, but consider the punishment he took for using the word "bitter" once. A Republican would have never been called on that. We should be grateful to have a candidate who doesn't merely reach into his bag of talking points for a bumper sticker solution.
Posted by: Danp on September 17, 2008 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK
Bush was considered to have done well against Kerry because he kept his answers short. A few words to get to the point. Kerry used more words and complex ideas. He lost the audience; he lost have them at Hello.
Unfortunately, the mass of voters like short, easy answers to complex ideas.
Obama has to practice and review some skills he learned in law school. But he's a good learner and he's competitive.
Posted by: amy on September 17, 2008 at 1:44 PM | PERMALINK
mccain is the fall guy...
bush gets to screw the "hero"...
one more time...
and mccain and the kool aid drinkers?
they haven't a clue...
as usual...
Posted by: mr. irony on September 17, 2008 at 1:45 PM | PERMALINK
With falling house prices, stock prices and investment values, why does the capitol gains tax rate matter?
You only pay capitol gains on "gains" in value, at the time that you sell them.
Jack Kemp on MSNBC with Andrea Mitchell is crashing big time. He just said that those making more than $250k are responsible for economic growth, which is why they need a tax cut, and why Obama's plan is a disaster.
He used air quotes the so called "upper class", those making over $250k.
Posted by: tomj on September 17, 2008 at 1:46 PM | PERMALINK
Steve, it's all they got, Kiddo. I followed the Pumas blog for a little bit and the complaint Obama hems and haws was said over and over again.
Those who believes he hems and haws will still think he hemmed and hawed and that Pops was articulate. Meaning, when Stupid speaks, other Stupids listen.
My coaching tip for Barack: DON'T USE 50 CENT WORDS! Don't even use 25 cent words. Pretend you're 'splaining duh gobberment to a five-year-old.
Posted by: MissMudd on September 17, 2008 at 1:47 PM | PERMALINK
I'm simply hoping that Obama effectively ties McCain to all his fibs and reversals. That should end the contest right then and there.
Posted by: N.Wells on September 17, 2008 at 1:48 PM | PERMALINK
Obama really isn't that good in debate. It's not just righties that have noticed it.
Posted by: jpe on September 17, 2008 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK
McCain is going to be in his element since he loves town halls and has a strong command of all of the issues. Posted by: Keith
You're joking right? In the last three days, McCain has proven that not only is he tone deaf, he just doesn't have a handle on anything facing the country.
Posted by: Jeff II on September 17, 2008 at 1:50 PM | PERMALINK
Don't believe it. I've seen him speak from close up, and he's sharp and on point. Were there any telepromplters in those primary debates? But as another poster said, Kerry won all three debates (Remember the box taped to Bush's back?) and "lost" the election. As Stalin said, it's not who casts the votes, it's who counts them.
Posted by: ericfree on September 17, 2008 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK
Obama needs a 'there you go again' moment at some point to crystallize his outrage over McCain's behavior and lies. It would be best if it were over policy, but he should plan one of these moments ------- he needs to get on the nightly news.
Also, he should watch the Dukakis debates (and his own where he bumbled in some sense the question of what he would do after another 9/11 event) as a cautionary tale and work on putting some passion into his comments. Hell, I'm a professor too and I manage to lecture on some topics with lots of passion.
Posted by: clarice on September 17, 2008 at 1:57 PM | PERMALINK
He just said that those making more than $250k are responsible for economic growth, which is why they need a tax cut, and why Obama's plan is a disaster. He used air quotes the so called "upper class", those making over $250k. Posted by: tomj
I can't believe anyone ever took Kemp seriously on anything.
$250K a year is not the income threshold at which the economy is driven. People making this kind of money are consumers not capitalists. They work for someone else for a living. They aren't big investors because they don't have a lot of surplus, unless they are single, live in a studio apartment and take the bus to work. The capital gains tax on investments made by someone or a household with this kind of income amount to very little.
Asshole
Posted by: Jeff II on September 17, 2008 at 1:59 PM | PERMALINK
Actually, I believe the correct quote is "It's not who votes that counts, it's who counts the votes." Never knew the old guy was that clever in English.
Posted by: ericfree on September 17, 2008 at 2:01 PM | PERMALINK
Bizarrely, the boys-in-the-bubble McCain partisans have really convinced themselves that Obama is gaffe-prone and unable to speak in public. It's really one of those cases of a fringe element that clings to strange beliefs in the face of all countervailing evidence.
Posted by: Tyro on September 17, 2008 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK
I propose a new drinking game. Every time McCain blinks more than 20 times a minute, take a shot.
(Joke Alert. People should watch debates responsibly.)
Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on September 17, 2008 at 2:12 PM | PERMALINK
"I propose a new drinking game. Every time McCain blinks more than 20 times a minute, take a shot."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
How about a shot every time he says "My friends"? Alcohol poisoning would occur in about 15 minutes. If he starts with that tic in the debates I'm going to be hard pressed to not pick up a brick........
Posted by: steve duncan on September 17, 2008 at 2:20 PM | PERMALINK
Well, I got news for you: Cicero thought that McCain was the best debater he'd ever seen, so that should give you a good idea of how good McCain is.
And I'm not joking.
Posted by: Jay B. on September 17, 2008 at 2:25 PM | PERMALINK
One thing is for certain, I'll be glad when the debates are over. Obama simply needs to remain succinct with his answers, challenge repeated falsehoods (call out the lies) and bring home the "unity gets things done/divisive rhetoric does not" message. There are a lot of racists out there, that’s my main concern. Hell, my father thinks I’m “naïve” for supporting Obama so there you go! It is patently disappointing that many Americans still harbor the social mold of 50+ years ago. We need this guy as President to really change anything, on one of the most fundamental levels imaginable.
Posted by: The Galloping Trollop on September 17, 2008 at 2:27 PM | PERMALINK
Good one, Jay B.
Posted by: phoebes in santa fe on September 17, 2008 at 2:45 PM | PERMALINK
I think Obama had some difficulty in the primaries because there was not a lot of difference between everyone's positions and that generated longer explanations in order to create a distinction.
These debates are black and white and it won't take much to create a stark contrast.
He'll do fine.
Posted by: bdop4 on September 17, 2008 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINK
Obama is a terrible at debates. I hear he needs a pillow, nutrition bars and Bling H20 in order to make it to the first 15 minutes.
Actually, I've seen him have good and bad debates. I'm hoping he was simply biting his tongue during the last debates with Hillary.
Posted by: msw on September 17, 2008 at 2:56 PM | PERMALINK
Thanks for that reassurance, bdop4. After the past two elections I've become a nervous fellow.
Posted by: trbtx on September 17, 2008 at 2:57 PM | PERMALINK
Gaah should be "attack" of course.
Posted by: HeidiPDX on September 17, 2008 at 3:01 PM | PERMALINK
Obama could maybe watch "Philadelphia" again. Denzels character had that great line, "Exlain it me like I'ma four year old."
Posted by: amy on September 17, 2008 at 3:04 PM | PERMALINK
James Fallows predicts McCain will try to attach Obama and catch him off guard: Posted by: HeidiPDX
Gaah should be "attack" of course. Posted by: HeidiPDX
Are you sure? I would say that the McCain campaign is above very little at this point. If they thought that having the old man wrap himself around one of Obama's legs (which are probably longer than McCain is tall) or begin stalking him (as Rove now has Palin stalking Hillary Clinton), I wouldn't be surprised.
Posted by: Jeff II on September 17, 2008 at 3:07 PM | PERMALINK
Keep in mind that his handlers don't insist that Hon. Sen. McCain stick to flash cards and teleprompters because it keeps him from stammering and sputtering, they do it to insure that he doesn't go off the reservation and say something asinine. Considering the theme is National Security or some such, I think it the odds of getting him to say something over the top might be pretty good.
Posted by: jhm on September 17, 2008 at 3:47 PM | PERMALINK
My view on recent pres debates: The media and pundits have set the spread.
DEMs need an A just to be passable and/or bare acceptable.
Repub need only a D to pass and a C effort is glorified.
Gore beat Bush every time in 2000.
Kerry beat Bush every time in 2004.
But Bush did "Better Than Expected"
Bush beat the MEDIA set SPREAD and "won".
Can anyone image:
1)the college football championship bowl game between the teams best at beating the spread and not to the teams with the best records?
2)The Super Bowl being between the NFC and AFC teams that best beat the spread?
3)The basketball champioinship based on beating the point spread?
Probably not but that is the recent pattern for the White House.
Posted by: Jim on September 17, 2008 at 4:41 PM | PERMALINK
Yeah, Obama is pretty lousy at debate.
If by 'debate' you mean the Jerry Springer show.
Posted by: Harold S. on September 17, 2008 at 9:35 PM | PERMALINK