Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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September 18, 2008

THURSDAY'S CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP....Today's installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn't generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:

* John McCain has 83 Wall Street lobbyists on staff. Given all the railing he's done this week about the corruption, greed, and mismanagement on Wall Street, I can't help but find this amusing.

* Even Karl Rove thinks Palin was added to the ticket for political reasons.

* Richard Riordan, the former mayor of Los Angeles and a Republican, endorsed Obama yesterday.

* Rep. Don Young of Alaska eked out a victory in his Republican primary.

* In the latest national poll from New York Times/CBS, Obama leads McCain among registered voters by five (48% to 43%), and among likely voters by five (49% to 44%).

* In the latest national poll from Quinnipiac, Obama leads McCain among likely voters by four, 49% to 45%.

* The latest CNN poll shows Obama and McCain tied in Florida at 48% each.

* The latest CNN poll shows McCain leading Obama in North Carolina by one, 48% to 47%.

* The latest CNN poll shows Obama leading McCain in Ohio by two, 49% to 47%.

* The latest CNN poll shows Obama leading McCain in Wisconsin by three, 50% to 47%.

* The latest CNN poll shows McCain leading Obama in Indiana by six, 51% to 45%.

* Speaking of the Hoosier State, a new Indianapolis Star poll shows Obama ahead in Indiana by three, 47% to 44%.

* A new SurveyUSA poll shows Obama leading McCain in New Mexico by eight, 52% to 44%.

* Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain in Wisconsin by two, 48% to 46%.

* Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain in Oregon by four, 51% to 47%.

* The latest Field Poll in California shows Obama leading McCain by 16, 52% to 36%.

* Speaking of California, voters in the state don't appear anxious to ban gay marriages.

* Jeb Bush apparently hasn't been especially impressed with his brother's presidency.

Steve Benen 12:00 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (32)
 
Comments

If anyone was watching "Morning Joe" this a.m. you would have seen that odious Lynn Cheney hawking a book she wrote about.........that's the the Constitution. I was waiting for Joe to ask her if, in her studies of the constitution if she came across that fourth branch of government that allows her husband to repeatedly break the law. Alas, no. Not asked...

Posted by: Walt on September 18, 2008 at 12:03 PM | PERMALINK

If anyone was watching "Morning Joe" this a.m. you would have seen the odious Lynn Cheney hawking a book she's written about......that's right, irony is alive and kicking....the U.S. Constitution. I was waiting for Joe to ask her if, in her studies, she came across that fourth branch of government that allow him to repeatedly break the law. Alas, it never came.

Posted by: Walt on September 18, 2008 at 12:05 PM | PERMALINK

83 lobbyists? Ah jeez. How are we going to give names to all those moral dwarves? I guess we'll just have to go with Sleazy1 through Sleazy83.

Posted by: The Answer Is Green on September 18, 2008 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK

So why aren't we hearing more about the NYT national poll that has Obama back up by 5??

The press was so agog when it was even in the 2 weeks following the GOP convention - has the bubble burst??

(crickets chirping...)

Posted by: Homer on September 18, 2008 at 12:11 PM | PERMALINK

Speaking of the Hoosier State, a new Indianapolis Star poll shows Obama ahead in Indiana by three, 47% to 44%.

One data point FWIW -- in the near east side of Indianapolis, I only see Obama yard signs (several on my block, including my house of course). I haven't spotted any mcCain signs at all (though a few small ones touting incumbent Governor Mitch "Deficits" Daniels).

Posted by: Gregory on September 18, 2008 at 12:11 PM | PERMALINK

I wonder if ol' Jeb Bush knows that his dear brother Georgie has screwed the pooch so badly that there will never be another Bush in the White House. Well, assuming Palin doesn't get in. (Is it sexist if a woman makes a comment like that? Hmmm...I need to reflect on that. ;) )

Latah, Jeb...original PNAC member.

Political death to all the neocons!

Posted by: MsJoanne on September 18, 2008 at 12:11 PM | PERMALINK

Biden is emphasizing this am that "..It's time to pony up, it's your patriotic duty to pay taxes..." (if you make more than $250,000).

WRONG message!!! He needs to emphasize that 95% of Americans will see a tax cut under the Obama plan.

Posted by: on September 18, 2008 at 12:13 PM | PERMALINK

Sarah Palin's new line on energy: She oversees a large portion of US energy production.

I'd still like to know how she oversees it, we did see video of her walking by one of the pipelines with Charlie Gibson.

Posted by: tomj on September 18, 2008 at 12:21 PM | PERMALINK

i liked this post from Judy Malone on Mother Jones Blog on 09/17/08 at 2:05 PM:

"If You were The Boss... which team would you hire?
>
> With America facing historic debt, multiple war fronts,
> stumbling health care, a weakened dollar, all-time high
> prison population, skyrocketing Federal spending, mortgage
> crises, bank foreclosures, etc. etc., this is an unusually
> critical election year.
>
> Let's look at the educational background of the
> candidates and see what they bring to the job:
>
> Obama:
> Occidental College - Two years.
> Columbia University - B.A. political science with a
> specialization in international relations.
> Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude
>
> Biden:
> University of Delaware - B.A. in history and B.A. in
> political science.
> Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)
>
> vs.
>
> McCain:
> United States Naval Academy - Class rank 894 out of 899
> (meaning that, like George Bush, McCain was at the bottom of
> his class)
>
>
> Palin:
> Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
> North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
> University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
> Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
> University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in journalism
>
> Now, which team are you going to hire to lead the most
> influential nation in the world?"

Here is the link, do a chain email with this and circulate: http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/09/9753_mccain_campaign_lobbyists_wall_street_aig.html

Posted by: on September 18, 2008 at 12:24 PM | PERMALINK

Recommended reading:

High Turnout, New Procedures May Mean an Election Day Mess
By Mary Pat Flaherty
Washington Post
September 18, 2008

Faced with a surge in voter registrations leading up to Nov. 4, election officials across the country are bracing for long lines, equipment failures and confusion over polling procedures that could cost thousands the chance to cast a ballot.

The crush of voters will strain a system already in the midst of transformation, with jurisdictions introducing new machines and rules to avoid the catastrophe of the deadlocked 2000 election and the lingering controversy over the 2004 outcome. Even within the past few months, cities and counties have revamped their processes: Nine million voters, including many in the battleground states of Ohio, Florida and Colorado, will use equipment that has changed since March.

But the widespread changes meant to reassure the public have also increased the potential for trouble.

This year we are seeing an exact replay of the script that the 2000 and 2004 elections followed:

1. Republican campaign based on brazen, sickening, preposterous, malicious lies

2. Corporate media working hand in hand with the Republican Party and the overtly partisan right-wing media to glorify the Republican candidate and character-assassinate the Democratic candidate

3. Republicans steal the election with voter disenfranchisement and fraud

Read the Post article to get a sense of how the Republicans will actually exploit the surge in Democratic voter registrations and high Democratic turnout to disenfranchise thousands -- perhaps hundreds of thousands -- of eligible Democratic voters, by ensuring that the election systems break down and are unable to handle the large turnout.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on September 18, 2008 at 12:26 PM | PERMALINK

"Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain in Oregon by four, 51% to 47%."

The race is widening a bit in Oregon. That's good news.

Senator Gordon Smith is counting on a close Presidential race in Oregon so he can pick up enough split ballots to keep his seat. Smith is running a campaign stressing how often he crosses party lines and his close ties with Obama (that's right, the Republican is playing up the Democratic Presidential candidate) and talking tough against Bush (with not a word about McCain). He's also going relentlessly negative against Merkley (I am a little disappointed in the party that he was the best they could come up with given how vulnerable Smith is this year).

The Democratic Senate Commitee and a couple 527s are advertising heavily against Smith (I see more of their ads then I do Merkley's ads).

A big turnout for Obama in Oregon could end Smith's carreer in the Senate.

Posted by: on September 18, 2008 at 12:27 PM | PERMALINK

* The latest CNN poll shows McCain leading Obama in North Carolina by one, 48% to 47%.

Now that's exciting news!!

Bring it on home Tarheels !

Posted by: MissMudd on September 18, 2008 at 12:34 PM | PERMALINK

Sarah Palin's new line on energy: She oversees a large portion of US energy production.Posted by: tomj

It was pointed out yesterday that Alaska's oil comprises just 14% of energy supply for the U.S. I'd be willing to be that the hydroelectric dams on the Columbia, serving the power needs of more than 10 million people in the PNW, provide more energy than Alaska's oil.

Of course, this is beyond the point as Palin doesn't have shit to do with Alaska's oils since, last time I checked, it's produced by private firms. Unless she's just being honest and admitting that she's a wholly owned subsidiary of Big Oil.

Posted by: Jeff II on September 18, 2008 at 12:38 PM | PERMALINK

"* The latest CNN poll shows McCain leading Obama in Indiana by six, 51% to 45%."

That may be what CNN says, but the Indianapolis Star's hadline today is "It's Close in Indiana" and puts Obama ahead of McCain, 47% to 44%. Considering how far right the Indy Star usually leans, I was pretty surprised by this. Polls are always unreliable, sure, but I thought it was worth a note.

Posted by: Jabberwocky on September 18, 2008 at 12:50 PM | PERMALINK

My bad, the Indy Star's poll results are already up there. I read too quickly and didn't see that.

Still, as a Hoosier myself and a big fan of Obama, I was encouraged. Indiana wants to be blue, really!

Posted by: Jabberwocky on September 18, 2008 at 12:52 PM | PERMALINK

Read the Post article to get a sense of how the Republicans will actually exploit the surge in Democratic voter registrations and high Democratic turnout to disenfranchise thousands -- perhaps hundreds of thousands -- of eligible Democratic voters, by ensuring that the election systems break down and are unable to handle the large turnout.Posted by: SecularAnimist

They will try hard in the states with accommodating officials, but at the rate McCain/Palin are screwing themselves, it may not matter if they steal Florida and Ohio again.

Too bad the U.S. isn't a democracy.

Posted by: Jeff II on September 18, 2008 at 12:54 PM | PERMALINK

* Rep. Don Young of Alaska eked out a victory in his Republican primary.

Mudflats blog (in AK) is crediting Rush Limbaugh's "crossover" (in re the Dem primaries) tactics to Young's win:

"It was no secret in the polling, that Democratic candidate Ethan Berkowitz was much more likely to defeat long-term but desperately corrupt incumbent Don Young, than Republican newcomer (and some would say Palin-bot) rival Lt. Governor Sean Parnell.
So, devious Independants and Non-partisans (who make up well over 50% of the voters in Alaska), chose the Republican ballot and voted for Young in a desperate attempt to swing the general election in favor of a viable Democratic candidate."

http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/09/17/operation-chaos-a-success-don-young-wins-by-a-nose/

Looks like the Dems will pick up another seat in the US House!

Posted by: Hannah on September 18, 2008 at 1:02 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks for various optimistic-trending poll numbers, but the State to watch is Virginia! Great effort can flip my state over, I think winner of VA can take it all because the rest is (if it still is) so close. If you're in VA, tell folks to register as VA resident for the sake of Electoral College points.

Posted by: Neil B on September 18, 2008 at 1:10 PM | PERMALINK

Obama needs to hit McCain over the head with the 83 Wall Street lobbyists. It's the kind of sound bite that will play quite well in the Midwest.

"John McCain has 83 Wall Street lobbyists on his staff. Do you really he's going to clean things up?"

Posted by: mfw13 on September 18, 2008 at 1:20 PM | PERMALINK

Steve - Please don't use "anxious" when you mean "eager".

Speaking of California, voters in the state don't appear anxious to ban gay marriages.

If someone is anxious, they have fear or anxiety, whereas if someone is eager they are enthusiastic.

Posted by: avery on September 18, 2008 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK

And good trend showing up: voters are getting tired of Johnnie Mac's Playlin mate, as the initial buzz wears off and the real picture comes into sharper focus. Moose in headlights moving out of the spotlight ...

Posted by: Neil B on September 18, 2008 at 1:31 PM | PERMALINK

Re Gordon Smith/Jeff Merkley in OR:
I think Merkley still isn't very well known - and many people still aren't paying attention, waiting to get their voter's pamphlets. I'm basing this opinion on phone calling I've been doing for Merkley. (If you've never phone banked before you should try it, it's a very revealing.) We're only calling Dems and Independents, but I've talked to some Republicans due to mixed households (this is blind calling so I can't ask for a specific person, just talk to whomever answers the phone unless it's a child, then I ask for the parent).

I don't like receiving these kinds of calls myself so I understand when people don't want to talk. But at least we're living breathing volunteers; Smith is robo-calling people. Anyone who says they don't know but is voting for Obama is easy to convince, since Obama is endorsing Merkley and they agree on pretty much everything. Yesterday I got everything from outright support for Jeff, to a libertarian who is against any US military presence in the middle east (we talked for about 5 minutes!), to pro-life poeple and that's their only issue, and one man who ranted about Jeff and "worthless" Democrats in general for about a minute. Gee, thanks. Last week a woman told me she wouldn't for for Jeff because that was the name of her former boyfriend who had dumped her. Sheesh.

Smith's ads against Jeff are misleading to vicious. TPMelectioncentral has even mentioned the latest one:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/gop_senator_accuses_opponent_o.php
GOP Senator Accuses Opponent Of Helping Child Rapist Get Released Onto Streets
Merkley spokesman Matt Canter told Election Central that Merkley had in fact voted for that very bill to extend the statute of limitations on sex offenders that Smith's ad says he voted against -- he just voted once against passing the bill on a procedural ground.
~~~
The campaign workers I volunteer under said Jeff voted for final passage of the bill. That he voted no on one version that extended all sentences rather than deal with just this issue. Shame on Sen. Smith.

Posted by: Hannah on September 18, 2008 at 1:31 PM | PERMALINK

I never would have predicted that the race in Indiana could be close, having lived here all my life. Here's hoping!

Posted by: Jane on September 18, 2008 at 1:33 PM | PERMALINK

"Even Karl Rove thinks Palin was added to the ticket for political reasons."

He should know, since it was his idea. Now he's backing away from it?

Posted by: Helena Montana on September 18, 2008 at 1:38 PM | PERMALINK

Anyone wanna bet that Riordan's endorsement gets the same amount of coverage as that of Baroness Lady Lynn de Rothschild?

Posted by: And a pit bull would make a better Vice President, too. That's TWO things. on September 18, 2008 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK

Ah, those polls look nice. Add in all of those cell phone only people and newly registered voters who aren't being polled, and it looks like a landslide in the making.

Posted by: doubtful on September 18, 2008 at 1:54 PM | PERMALINK

American Research Group is showing Obama within 4% of McCain in WV. That would be a shock.

Posted by: Danp on September 18, 2008 at 2:34 PM | PERMALINK

It was pointed out yesterday that Alaska's oil comprises just 14% of energy supply for the U.S.

No, Alaska produced 14 percent of the oil from U.S. wells last year. Its share of total domestic energy production was 3.5 percent.

Posted by: shortstop on September 18, 2008 at 2:47 PM | PERMALINK

Still, as a Hoosier myself and a big fan of Obama, I was encouraged. Indiana wants to be blue, really!

And we want to help you get there, friend.

mr. shortstop and I are enlisted for canvassing and GOTV efforts the two weekends before the election. We thought the Obama campaign would want us in Indiana, but they're sending us to Iowa. I assume that's because they already have boatloads of other Chicagoans heading east.

Posted by: shortstop, your little neighbor buddy on September 18, 2008 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINK

Regarding the hack fest of Sarah's Yahoo account, Glenn Greenwald nails the salient issues except for one:

I remember the 2006 CT Senate race where Joe LIEberman claimed his site was hacked when his server host was totally inadequate to the traffic, and the GOP-run investigation avoided releasing that report until AFTER the election, which resulted in a razor thin win for LIEberman. Those who think this is a Rovian trick are on the mark here, the simultaneous flipping out of the wingnuts is proof that this was no accident. Why, if Caribou Barbie has nothing to hide....

Posted by: rugger0 on September 18, 2008 at 3:08 PM | PERMALINK

We thought the Obama campaign would want us in Indiana, but they're sending us to Iowa. I assume that's because they already have boatloads of other Chicagoans heading east.

FWIW, Obama had a pretty solid canvassing operation during the primaries, which resulted, if memory serves me right (and it does, in darn near an even split (Indianapolis / NW Indiana for him vs rural areas tilting to Clinton).


Posted by: Gregory on September 18, 2008 at 3:18 PM | PERMALINK

Time for Obama to hit all the 'iffy' states like Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia (maybe), Georgia and any other state where he's been trailing by only a couple of points.

This is where the levees might burst and he can start turning red states deep dark blue...at least for this election.

Posted by: MarkH on September 18, 2008 at 8:48 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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