Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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September 20, 2008
By: Hilzoy

by hilzoy

From the AP:

"Wall Street turmoil left John McCain scrambling to explain why the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remained strong. It also left him defending his support for privately investing Social Security money in the same markets that had tanked earlier in the week.

The Republican presidential nominee says all options must be considered to stave off insolvency for the government insurance and retirement program, and top McCain advisers say that includes so-called personal retirement accounts like those President Bush pushed in 2005 but abandoned in the face of congressional opposition."

I'll bet he's scrambling. I can't imagine anyone would accept the idea of investing their Social Security pension in the stock market with equanimity right now. Even after Thursday's and Friday's rallies, with the DJIA close to its previous levels, the rate of return on the DJIA since the state of the union address in which the President proposed instituting private accounts is around 2% a year, well below the rate of inflation. A couple of days ago, it would have been well below that. And the actual rate of return on an individual account would have been lower still, given administrative costs and so forth.

This is exactly why we all went to the mattresses for Social Security back in 2005. No one's basic retirement security should be at the mercy of the stock market. We have just been reminded why that's such a stunningly bad idea. Apparently, the only people on earth who haven't figured it out are John McCain and his advisors.

I hope the Obama campaign repeats this every day from now until the elections.

Besides that, "top McCain advisors" are repeating another complete myth: that personal retirement accounts are a way to "stave off insolvency" for Social Security. If political journalists knew more about policy, McCain's "top policy advisors" might not have been able to complete the interview, because the reporters would have been laughing too hard. A statement like "all options must be considered to stave off insolvency for the government insurance and retirement program, and (...) that includes so-called personal retirement accounts" is, in fact, on a par with saying something like: "all options must be considered for making people healthier, including encouraging them to start smoking, operate chain saws while drunk, and take long, luxurious baths with their electric appliances."

It really is exactly that dumb.

Any plan that allows Social Security tax revenues to be diverted into private accounts blows a hole in the Social Security budget. How much of a hole depends on the specific provisions of the plan: how much it allows recipients to divert, whether it tries to save money by other means, like benefit reductions, etc. You can see estimates of the effects of several different plans here. They all make Social Security less solvent, not more, and by trillions of dollars. (The President's plan -- the one McCain campaigned for -- would add a cool $17.7 trillion in debt by 2050.)

Why? A few months ago, I drew up some goofy pictures to make the point as simply as possible. Since this issue has popped up again, I might as well put them up again. Here's the present system:

Photobucket

Under the present system, younger workers, on the left, pay for the benefits enjoyed by older workers, on the right. In time, the younger workers' benefits will be paid by today's toddlers.

Here's the proposal that John McCain thinks will make Social Security more solvent:

Photobucket

Here, the workers keep their own money, leaving Mr. Scream, who had paid the generation that came before him and been counting on being paid by younger workers in turn, with nothing. (Obviously, you can alter this picture in various ways. For instance, if people divert part, but not all, of their FICA taxes to private accounts, Mr. Scream can say: "Where's that part of my money?")

McCain has promised that Mr. Scream will, in fact, get his money. That money is the hole that private accounts blow in the deficit. If we don't want to leave Mr. Scream with nothing, the money has to come from somewhere, though: from the Social Security Trust Fund, higher taxes, or possibly Santa Claus.

You might wonder: since we, as a nation, have just bought a large insurance company, and are considering buying hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of toxic debt, is this really a good time to take on a project that adds trillions more to our national debt? Maybe not. But I'd be a lot happier if I thought that McCain knew that his Social Security proposal would actually cost money. The fact that he thinks it's a way of making Social Security more solvent is pretty scary.

Hilzoy 4:05 PM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (56)

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"Americans have got to understand that we are paying present-day retirees with the taxes paid by young workers in America today. And that's a disgrace. It's an absolute disgrace, and it's got to be fixed."
John McCain

We often hear the lament that SS is the largest budget item in the federal budget. While I don't dispute these assertions I find it ironic that WEALTHCARE*.....
...which GWB asked 700 billion for today is more than the total outlays for SS in 2009.

*My name for this beast.

Posted by: Tom Nicholson on September 20, 2008 at 4:23 PM | PERMALINK

People werent for privatization of SS under Bush and they wont be for it under McCain.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center estimated the 10-year deficit that would be incurred by Obama's tax proposals at $5.4 trillion and McCain's at $7.4 trillion.

Mr Scream indeed.

Posted by: Jet on September 20, 2008 at 4:25 PM | PERMALINK

Great post. Thanks for making a difficult subject easy to understand. How about making the stick figures on the right look older by adding a cane, perhaps. (Oops. That might not be PC.) Now if only some journalists would start to understand these issues and ask the tough questions. Maybe then, as you say, they'll start laughing at this idiot of a candidate.

Posted by: QuantumV1 on September 20, 2008 at 4:27 PM | PERMALINK

Ah, but in order to understand that privatization blows in the deficit requires that one understand how Social Security works and has always worked.

Recall that, apparently, McCain only recently discovered that current retiree benefits are paid out by current workers, and decided that was a terrible flaw in the program.

Sarah Palin isn't the only one on the GOP ticket with limited knowledge of the issues.

Posted by: David Bailey on September 20, 2008 at 4:30 PM | PERMALINK

"Any plan that allows Social Security tax revenues to be diverted into private accounts..."

Pelosi just announced that she is diverting as much as one trillion from entitlements to financial subsidies. I guess Hilzoy sort of missed the connection, let me explain again.

We need about 12% of the economy dedicated to social security, we just dedicated 5% of our economy to supply Pelosi with the funds she agreed to spend on bail outs.

You figure it out.

Posted by: Matt on September 20, 2008 at 4:34 PM | PERMALINK

Off-topic, but the local Anchorage, AK paper has been hammering away at the McCain campaign's open meddling in Alaska's internal political affairs:

Anchorage Daily News | September 20, 2008
Abdication by Palin: When did the McCain campaign take over the governor's office? - "Gov. Sarah Palin has surrendered important gubernatorial duties to the Republican presidential campaign. McCain staff are handling public and press questions about actions she has taken as governor. The governor who said, 'Hold me accountable,' is hiding behind the hired guns of the McCain campaign to avoid accountability. Is it too much to ask that Alaska's governor speak for herself, directly to Alaskans, about her actions as Alaska's governor?"

Posted by: Out & About in The Castro on September 20, 2008 at 4:41 PM | PERMALINK

You might wonder: since we, as a nation, have just bought a large insurance company,

Wahoo. Soon we'll all be rich. A nation of fat cats. I can't for the profits to come rolling in.

122 more days of Bush. Time for one more catastrophe?

That's Just What I Said

Posted by: Dale on September 20, 2008 at 4:43 PM | PERMALINK

Pelosi Statement on Proposed Entitlement Task Force

Washington, D.C. – Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued the following statement today on proposed legislation by Senators Kent Conrad of North Dakota and Judd Gregg of New Hampshire to create a task force to reform Social Security and Medicare:

Posted by: on September 20, 2008 at 4:44 PM | PERMALINK

Matt: We need about 12% of the economy dedicated to social security...

What is the assertion "12% of the economy" based on?

Posted by: has407 on September 20, 2008 at 4:53 PM | PERMALINK
You might wonder: since we, as a nation, have just bought a large insurance company,

Wahoo. Soon we'll all be rich. A nation of fat cats. I can't for the profits to come rolling in.

YAY! Soon Comrade Palin will give us dividend checks from AIG for thousands a year, like the Alaskan people got on taxes from big oil! YAY!

/Snark

Posted by: Jet on September 20, 2008 at 5:00 PM | PERMALINK

Wachovia has perfectly bad timing, and some hypocrisy, in my mailbox today.

And "Out and About," do you have a URL on the ADN story?

Matt... no surprise. What, did you think Schumer was going to let anybody put a surtax on his hedge fund buddies, or tax their income as actual income and not capital gains?

C'mon, the two-party duopoly is going to come up with some bullshit on this and you know it.

Vote Green.

Posted by: SocraticGadfly on September 20, 2008 at 5:01 PM | PERMALINK

From McCain's website:

"Early on in his life as a midshipman at the Naval Academy, the most important lesson John McCain learned was that to sustain his self-respect for a lifetime it would be necessary for him to have the honor of serving something greater than his self-interest -- service to his country. John McCain has always put his country's interests before any party, special interest and even his own self-interest. He has always and will always do what is right for our country."

http://www.johnmccain.com/Undecided/WhyMcCain.htm 9/20/08

Square this with his book, Worth Fighting For:

"I didn't decide to run for president to start a national crusade for the political reforms I believed in or to run a campaign as if it were some grand act of patriotism. In truth, I wanted to be president because it had become my ambition to be president. . . . In truth, I'd had the ambition for a long time."

Worth Fighting For
2000

Now some SS quotes (2000 1/26 debate)

"More young Americans believe Elvis is alive than believe that they’ll ever see a Social Security check."

" If we can put the money in quick, then we will be able to allow people to invest their payroll taxes into investments of their choosing and make a huge amount of difference in the SOLVENCY of their retirement fund." (emphasis mine)

Source: GOP Debate in Manchester NH Jan 26, 2000

So, while his website says one thing, his memoir says another. But his message about SS has remained the same since his POTUS run in 2000

Posted by: Tom Nicholson on September 20, 2008 at 5:03 PM | PERMALINK

Thanks for keeping it simple, Hilzoy--you are very good at that.

Unfortunately, McCain is saying today that Obama is trying to use scare tactics about social security-- He is insisting he backs Social Security 100%.

It seems like for every issue, he comes back with lies and spin.

It really is depressing to me that the race is this close. I'm not sure what Obama/Biden need to do to connect with the people, but I think they need to get back to more short and simple positives somehow...

Posted by: on September 20, 2008 at 5:05 PM | PERMALINK

@Matt:

You can't lay the financial bailout at Pelosi's feet, if that's what you're talking about. Paulson and Bernanke went into a meeting with Congressional leaders and basically said that if they didn't get the money to buy the bad assets from the banks and take them off of their books, then the US economy would be in the dumpster for years. I don't think any politician, Pelosi, Boehner, Bush, etc., is going to put up a huge fight when they're told that if they don't act, main street will be screwed for a long time.

You can look at deregulation of the banking system, the lack of oversight by the SEC, Fed, OCC, and OTS, as well as other reasons as the cause of the current mess we're in, but blaming it on Pelosi makes no sense.

And I'm also not sure how you come up with the idea that she's diverting "entitlements" funding to financial bailouts. Social security funding comes from payroll taxes. There will be no government plan that diverts those taxes into whatever entity the Fed/Treasury come up with to buy bad assets from the banks.

Posted by: O on September 20, 2008 at 5:18 PM | PERMALINK

New campaign slogan: "John McCain doesn't want the government to bail out Wall Street brokers, he wants you to do it with your retirement savings. He wants take away the guarantee of Social Security and put your retirement in the hands of the same people who created the mess we're now in."

My 2 cents worth.

Posted by: Frank on September 20, 2008 at 5:26 PM | PERMALINK

The Dems should demand Bush's resignation.

Here's a modest proposal: The Dems are now talking to the White House about a $700 billion package to bailout the financial system. Instead of just saying yes, the Dems should exact a price, they should ask both Bush and Cheney to resign to take responsibility for this crisis.

A caretaker Republican can be installed for the balance of the term. Virginia's John Warner would be a good candidate. He is retiring. Put a technocrat in the VP position.

This would be routine in most other countries. Why not here? After all, we've discovered that we are just another fuck-up country.

Posted by: g. powell on September 20, 2008 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK

I am convinced that a big motive behind the privatization, aside from those who never liked the New Deal anyway and other insane ideologues, was to provide a cash infusion that would allow the Wall Street firms to continue, for a while longer, to hide the fact that they've been getting rich building a house of cards based on bogus mortgages. Swap out a bunch of 'securities' based on bad mortgages with a bunch of retirement accounts, and voila! They get to play another few rounds. It would have been like catching the power points in a video game.

The game wasn't to create a sound system for funding retirements, it was to create a system for the people at the banks and brokerages to keep paying for their summer houses and boats, and avoid admitting that they've been scamming the world for years.

Posted by: biggerbox on September 20, 2008 at 5:32 PM | PERMALINK

Anything that John Mc Cain has to say about any subject must be ignored. He likes to play craps and is more than likely a compulsive gambler. He must not be allowed to gamble with America's future.

Posted by: steelhead on September 20, 2008 at 5:34 PM | PERMALINK

"Paulson and Bernanke went into a meeting with Congressional leaders and basically said that if they didn't get the money to buy the bad assets from the banks and take them off of their books, then the US economy would be in the dumpster for years."

Explain why Ben and company is explaining the economy to the congressional leader who directly manages 19% of the economy, and through state handouts, manages the another 19%. Yet she cannot figure out, or else has no clue about the other 62% that she relies on an appointed official? Where has this idiot been for four years?


If that is the leader you elect to protect your progressive programs, then you are one set of really stupid voters!

Pelosi and Obama are the big losers in all this, regardless of McCain's statements, the rhetorical leader of finance socialism is Pelosi, Teddy, Obama, Boxer, and company. They will all lose big whenever the taxpayer loses a trillion because of finance socialism.

Posted by: Matt on September 20, 2008 at 5:44 PM | PERMALINK

The privatization scheme is nothing more than a cynical means of allowing Wall Street to skim off sales and management fees from all that money pouring in from taxpayers. They don't give a damn if Social Security goes bust. It's the Republican philosophy - where's there's money, the rich are entitled to their fair share before it's wasted on ordinary people, even if it comes from the little people in the first place.

Social Security is the bedrock upon which our retirement plans are built. It's just so vile that they've even proposed such a scheme. I can't understand how these people can be so damned greedy. Isn't being a billionaire enough?

Posted by: hark on September 20, 2008 at 5:49 PM | PERMALINK

"You can look at deregulation of the banking system"

Except for the community development act that mandated Alt-A loans to poor and minorities, the two groups that had lost their shorts in the current fiasco.

You can (but I won't) look at the repeal of the Glass-Stegal (sp) act under Clinton and pushed byuleading Dems, essentially creating the unregulated banking system.

I liked this act on Clinton's part, and though Rush Limbaugh, the famous socialist hit on the Dems for their free market capitalism on this issue.

But, the main issue remains, the biggest advocates of finance socialism has been Chris Dodd, Barney Frank, with full approval of Pelosi and Hillary.

Thew only thing these bozos will accomplish is a bail out of the super wealthy with taxes from the moderate wealthy. As they get this done over the next four to eight years, expect Congress to be too busy and broke to consider Universal Health Care, Pelosi just sold that down the road and it will not be addressed for another two elections.


Posted by: Matt on September 20, 2008 at 5:52 PM | PERMALINK

The latest poll done in conjunction with Stanford indicates racism is alive and well amongst the Democrats--a whopping 3 out of 10 admit they're not supportive of Obama, whereas McCain is pulling in 85% of the Republicans. And this is the amount of folk who apparently admit to their views--my guess is the true racist figure is even higher than what's emerging in the polls.

If ever there were a time it would be crystal clear that we need a Democratic, it's now. And yet, this is how pervasive racism is--this is unbelievably frightening to me.

Obama is just SO obviously bright and capable and principled man, while McCain/Palin are SO clearly
not--I just can't believe this.

Posted by: on September 20, 2008 at 6:01 PM | PERMALINK

I think team Obama could kick it up a notch by adding visual aids, whether stick people or pie charts, America needs a real picture of how frightening McCain is.

Posted by: ML on September 20, 2008 at 6:03 PM | PERMALINK

I think that an important point to make here is the Real motivation behind privatizing Social Security in the first place that is NEVER talked about. The big bush for privatizing is coming from big Business. Lets remember that they are currently matching employees SS contributions at a rate I believe is approximately 6.5% No one has ever talked about the windfall profit gains corporations would gain if employees diverted some of their contributions. Wouldn't companies pay less in SS if employees paid less to SS? I'm sure the companies would save dollar for dollar.

Posted by: DA on September 20, 2008 at 6:10 PM | PERMALINK

The more and more I think about the bailout the more and more convinced I am that Bushco pushed for it so that there would be no funds available for an Obama administration and as the last great act of federal government dismantling by Bush/Cheny/et al.

Posted by: grinning cat on September 20, 2008 at 6:17 PM | PERMALINK

You can (but I won't) look at the repeal of the Glass-Stegal (sp) act under Clinton and pushed byuleading Dems, essentially creating the unregulated banking system.

I'm not surprised that Republicans are trying to dodge their responsibility for shitcanning Glass-Steagall, but I didn't think you'd try to pretend that Phil Gramm and James Leach were Democrats.

Dodge and spin all you want. You guys have been at the controls for 8 years and you ran the ship aground. Time to let the adults take over and try to clean up the mess you created.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on September 20, 2008 at 6:37 PM | PERMALINK

This is off topic, but I think John McCain is seriously ill and few people know it. I do believe his cancer has returned and it has affected his personality.

The John McCain of 2008 is nothing like the John McCain of 2000. This John McCain is an unrepetent liar. I don't believe it is because of ambition--I believe it is because he is dying and he knows it.

If John MacCain wins there will be a President Palin. It's easy to be Governor when your state runs surpluses, but running a country with a deficit of $500 billion and a debt of 1 trillion is way beyond the ability of a narcisistic, small-minded, vindictive woman who barely finished college.

I fear for this country.

Posted by: DeeCee on September 20, 2008 at 6:41 PM | PERMALINK

Explain why Ben and company is explaining the economy to the congressional leader... - Matt

That is an absurd oversimplification of the meeting. No one is telling us the specifics of what Paulson and Bernanke said in that meeting, but it is safe to say they only recently learned specifics regarding AIG, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, if not others. It would have been these details that were shared, not the basics of Econ 101.

Posted by: Danp on September 20, 2008 at 7:14 PM | PERMALINK

A commenter over at John Cole's Balloon Juice put if perfectly: we are being charged for our rape kits.

Posted by: Dennis - SGMM on September 20, 2008 at 7:19 PM | PERMALINK

Call Pelosi @1-202-225-0100 and DEMAND IMPEACHMENT.

Posted by: Mike Meyer on September 20, 2008 at 7:40 PM | PERMALINK

Well, it seems a meltdown of the whole World Financial System was narrowly averted (so far), at least "according to the market" - see, in this economy the stock market is "the" market. Why? Because "we the (American) people" had the burden placed on our long-suffering shoulders, that's why. (Say, why not more shouldering from citizens of other nations, anyway?) And what we should get in return? Well, here is my comment from a thread in Brad DeLong's literate and fascinating blog:

Since the public is basically bailing out "the financial system", then: the public should, in some sense and to a substantial extent, be given "ownership" of the financial system. I don't mean just ordinary individualized market participation (which they already have, however mangled) or just "the government" acting as a government (especially considering that the G. is largely, effectively owned by the same sort it is bailing out the most.) I mean literally "as" the public, in a communal effective way similar to what being in a genuinely employee-owned company is like. Reflect on that and hash out what it should consist of in particular, the thrust of it cannot morally be denied. The people should demand it, they will if they appreciate what happened to them and respect their interests.

Posted by: Neil B on September 20, 2008 at 7:52 PM | PERMALINK

As long as payroll taxes are collected the Social Security System can NEVER go insolvent or bankrupt.

The same statement holds true when saying that as long as a portion of payroll taxes are NOT diverted into risky, private accounts, then the Social Security System can NEVER go insolvent or bankrupt.

Yes, fifty to eighty years from now SS benefits paid out may be more than payroll taxes being collected, as the SS trust bubble slowly dwindles to the point far into the future where money collected and benefits paid reach parity, but Social Security can NEVER go insolvent or bankrupt as long as payroll taxes continue to be collected.

Which, of course, is why the culture of corruption and greed, and borderline-evil, Republicans roll out their talking point, their scare tactic of saying that they are only trying to "save" Social Security from going insolvent or bankrupt by offering their privatization alternative.

The corrupt Republicans will say and do anything to destroy FDR's "citizen friendly" economic policies and programs.

Posted by: The Oracle on September 20, 2008 at 8:00 PM | PERMALINK

They start with a phony premise -- Social Security is teetering on insolvency -- and then pledge to "fix" it with this scary phrase: "all options must be considered." No one in their right mind would apply that strategy under any circumstances. How about if we, oh, I don't know, throw the crappy options out right from the get-go and don't consider them at all?

Posted by: gradysu on September 20, 2008 at 8:04 PM | PERMALINK

One subject I haven't seen covered much is the environment, but Salon has one each on Palin and McCain this weekend:

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/09/19/palin/
Sarah Palin's dead lake
By promoting runaway development in her hometown, say locals, Palin has "fouled her own nest" -- and that goes for the lake where she lives.
~~~

http://www.salon.com/env/feature/2008/09/20/john_mccain_environment/
John McCain's hot air
He may claim to be green, but McCain's environmental record is every bit as dirty as that of Sen. James "global warming is a hoax" Inhofe.

Here are two people I don't want to have stewardship over our precious land, water and air!!!

Posted by: Hannah on September 20, 2008 at 8:05 PM | PERMALINK

George Bush on the bailout: "I decided to act and act boldly." Where have we heard that before?

Posted by: bosco on September 20, 2008 at 8:12 PM | PERMALINK

deecee, I'm totally with you on that assumption. I was just watching vids of Pops on Youtube from two years back, and he's a different person. The erratic swings, the moodiness, it's has to be
connected. I know a few old folks (looking at you Mama!) who are just as cantankerous. It may not be Alzheimer's but they'll surely revert to 5-year-old behavior at every turn. That's John McCain. Damn the torpedoes.

McCain's campaign also reminds me of that movie "Dave" where they hired a presidential impersonator to help conceal the fact the real one was nearly dead. Maybe Palin's his impersonator.

Note to mike meyer: it won't work. You and me and everyone else should be marching on Washington but yet here we are, posting on blogs.

And Dale, please. No catastrophes! All last week, I kept thinking: what if The Big 1 hits now? California would be toast. Maybe I should stock up on MRE's anyway.

Posted by: MissMudd on September 20, 2008 at 8:15 PM | PERMALINK

For anyone who has not read a draft of the economic bail out plan, you must!!!! It is posted on Firedoglake web site - the repubs must not get away with it, it is dreadful.
For the voice of sanity on a bail out, everyone should read what Barnie Sanders has to say.

Posted by: js on September 20, 2008 at 8:28 PM | PERMALINK

matt, it's clear that you're not well-informed in general, but to correct one particular problem: the end of glass-steagall is irrelevant to this particular crisis.

the companies in trouble - lehman, bear stearns, merrill lynch - were companies on the investment banking side. the end of glass-steagall made no difference to them.

insofar as ending glass-steagall caused a problem, it was because it wasn't replaced with an appropriate 21st century regulatory regime, not because glass-steagall itself made any difference to this crisis.

Posted by: howard on September 20, 2008 at 8:32 PM | PERMALINK

You'd also have to adjust the images to show the younger workers holding empty bags and extra job applications.

Posted by: TBone on September 20, 2008 at 9:10 PM | PERMALINK

Don't forget bushcon tried hard to get a % of the ss money mixed in with the current looting.
Look at the method used to present the current "crisis" and the method used to "fix" this mess.
Have these guys ever tried to scare the people? Yes! Have they offerend the "solution" or action "needed" right away? Yes!
Why would you allow the same looters who have stolen all the loot to be chosen to "fix" the mess.
Is anyone paying attention?
Forget the old man and the wind-up-doll for a second.
Look: all the money is gone/stolen and the same people who took it all are in charge of "fixing" the mess?
Time for some big time questions of the looters as they are trying to escape with what's left.
Come on people.
This is their media.You think you can figure this out reading wsj?
Looters coming back for what's left.
That is the real headline.

Posted by: johnsnottoodistracted on September 20, 2008 at 9:30 PM | PERMALINK

So are heads gonna roll on this or not. I suspect not. Probably "heckuvas" will be handed out freely by Bush.

That's Just What I Said

Posted by: Dale on September 20, 2008 at 9:45 PM | PERMALINK

From the proposed language of the bailout bill:

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

So Paulson's decisions will be "non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency."

That's certainly reassuring. We all know that no member of the Bush administration has ever done anything incompetent, venal, self-serving or criminal.

Posted by: Dennis - SGMM on September 20, 2008 at 10:12 PM | PERMALINK

@ Matt:

"Explain why Ben and company is explaining the economy to the congressional leader who directly manages 19% of the economy, and through state handouts, manages the another 19%. Yet she cannot figure out, or else has no clue about the other 62% that she relies on an appointed official? Where has this idiot been for four years?"

Well, Ben is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, which is in charge of monetary policy, and he's an economist, so it seems pretty natural that he'd be explaining the workings of the economy to a congressional leader. And can you explain where you're getting this 38% figure from, please? I really have no idea what that figure refers to.

"Except for the community development act that mandated Alt-A loans to poor and minorities, the two groups that had lost their shorts in the current fiasco."

I imagine that you're actually referring to the Community Reinvestment Act here, and not the Housing and Community Development Act. The CRA stated that federally insured banks had to lend in areas from which they took deposits, including poor neighborhoods. These banks were rated on how well they conformed to the CRA's requirements. But, CRA lending decreased noticeably after 2001. Most importantly, the CRA only applies to federally insured banks, not the various mortgage companies responsible for a significant amount of subprime lending. Robert Gordon at the American Prospect has an excellent article on this if you care to read it.

"You can (but I won't) look at the repeal of the Glass-Stegal (sp) act under Clinton and pushed byuleading Dems, essentially creating the unregulated banking system."

As someone else pointed out, this repeal was actually called the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, i.e. it was put forward by Republicans. It passed both houses by a veto-proof majority, so even if Clinton had vetoed it, which he didn't, it would have become law. Democrats supported it in exchange for strengthening the Community Reinvestment Act.

"But, the main issue remains, the biggest advocates of finance socialism has been Chris Dodd, Barney Frank, with full approval of Pelosi and Hillary."

Isn't finance socialism sort of an oxymoron?

Posted by: O on September 20, 2008 at 10:38 PM | PERMALINK

You guys are all just Haters, smearing a fine man who can't even do a high-five any more because he was a POW. He doesn't even live near the U.S. Mint, how the hell is he supposed to know anything about finance? I just hope you're proud of yourselves.

Of course Mr. McCain is concerned about Social Security, he'll need it himself soon enough.

Oh....wait....

orange

Posted by: Mark on September 20, 2008 at 10:42 PM | PERMALINK

I've been pushing a slogan something like "I'm John McCain, and you should be able to invest your Social Security with Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. If you happen to see them around, have them to get in touch with me".

There'd have to be some revisions, but you could get a real punchy soundbite out of that if you did it right. I hope someone's working on it.

Posted by: John Emerson on September 20, 2008 at 10:52 PM | PERMALINK

We may well look back on this week as the week McCain lost the election. It's exposed his biggest Achilles heel: The man has no f___ing clue about the economy. None. Frankly, anyone who would take economic advice from Phil Gramm should be immediately disqualified from presidenttial consideration.

Posted by: gf120581 on September 20, 2008 at 11:01 PM | PERMALINK

At the moment, maybe the most effective argument against privatizing Social Security is that it will cost more now. Unless benefits to the retired and disabled are cut now (which is a non-starter politically) or SS taxes are raised (another non-starter) the money diverted to personal accounts (and which of course would largely go to Wall Street) would have to be made up somehow.

Privatizing SS is not going to happen - talking about it has devolved into empty rhetoric to stir up the party faithful and maybe fool the ignorant until they find out what would actually be entailed - something like offshore drilling.

Posted by: skeptonomist on September 20, 2008 at 11:51 PM | PERMALINK

Hey, why am I left subsidizing the retirement of childless couples. I have raised two kids and am putting them through college. It is more expensive now than in the past and the government grant programs have almost disappeared in favor of not very subsidized loans.

Simply put, I am paying for the retirement of non-child raising individuals by investing in my own kids. Under this system, everyone has an interest in educating youth, and should help. Am I missing something?

Posted by: BobPM on September 21, 2008 at 12:16 AM | PERMALINK

"Anchorage, AK paper has been hammering away at the McCain campaign's open meddling in Alaska's internal political affairs"

Don't mistake the Anchorage Daily News for the local Anchorage population. If you want to hear how Anchorage feels, listen to the local radio shows. The locals overwhelmingly feel like the investigation was politicized by Obama supporters.


Having said that, my vote is officially up for grabs again. The first candidate to oppose this bailout gets my vote.

Posted by: rory on September 21, 2008 at 12:21 AM | PERMALINK

Simply put, I am paying for the retirement of non-child raising individuals by investing in my own kids. Under this system, everyone has an interest in educating youth, and should help. Am I missing something?

Yes. It used to be that childless couples would pay their property and other taxes that would go towards schools and other child-centered programs that they weren't using themselves but that benefited society as a whole.

Then Republicans declared that no one should have to pay taxes, ever, and that taxation was theft. So everyone decided that having to pay for the education of children who weren't even theirs was stealing money out of their pockets.

Welcome to the ownership society.

Posted by: Mnemosyne on September 21, 2008 at 1:59 AM | PERMALINK

Joanne,

Your IBD editorial link raises some good points, but it misses the mark.

While it seems easy for anti-GOPers to blame the Gramm-Leach-Bliley for deregulation (or, conversely, for anti-Dems to blame the CRA), Gramm-Leach-Bailey isn't the culprit here.

In 2000, then Senator Gramm introduced the Commodity Futures Modernization Act by slipping it into the federal budget. Its purpose was to keep regulators from controlling new financial tools described as "credit swaps," something that doesn't fall under the purview of either Gramm-Leach-Bailey or the CRA (credit swaps are instruments like sub-prime mortgages bundled up and sold as securities).

Under the CFMA, neither the SEC nor the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) were able to examine financial institutions like hedge funds or investment banks to guarantee they had the assets necessary to cover losses they were guaranteeing.

This market is estimated at $60 trillion annually, which amounts to almost four times the entire US stock market.

Gramm's CFMA also included a provision that prevented the regulation of energy trading markets, which resulted in Enron (which we taxpayers got to pay for, too, remember?).

Gramm's wife once headed the CFTC, then later worked for Enron. McCain was one of the Keating 5. Say all you want about Obama's, Biden's, Clinton's, et.al. record, but it isn't reasonable to go to bat for men known for causing economic chaos at the expense of the spirit free markets.

They aren't about free market capitalism. It is about being able to circumvent rules or to get rid of them in order to make some cash. They'll say whatever they need to say to convince you that the Dems are nothing but tax-and-spend liberals hellbent of socializing everything while they're squeaky clean angels looking out for your best interests. It simply isn't true.

Don't forget there are several more rounds of foreclosures coming, and the Bush tax cuts will expire during the next presidency.

Posted by: f. on September 21, 2008 at 2:14 AM | PERMALINK

No BAILOUTS for Wall St. Capitalism says failed banks go broke. Let them fail.

It's called bankrupt. That's why we have bankruptcy court. We're going to need to fund the FDIC, not a bunch of failed banks.

Call your Senator and Congressperson and demand NO DEALS.

The Bush bailout is a sham which will only make the situation WORSE. Is that really a surprise - haven't we seen this bums rush before?

This is not really a Democrat or Republican issue, this is preventing the worst President ever from taking down the whole system! Make the call - stop the insanity!

Posted by: Glen on September 21, 2008 at 2:45 AM | PERMALINK

Social Security would be solvent into perpetuity if we simply lifted the cap on how much income is subject to the FICA tax. It is the regressivity of the social security tax that jeopardizes it's solvency.

Funny how you never hear these right-wing Ayn Rand worshippers pushing for a Social Security "flat tax", isn't it???

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on September 21, 2008 at 8:14 AM | PERMALINK

Nobody should care what the average Anchorage citizen says on the talk shows. For all their macho talk, Alaskans are parasites, and the people they like are grafters and professional criminals.

Posted by: John J Emerson on September 21, 2008 at 9:38 AM | PERMALINK

In addition to costing a lot to finish off the old investors in Social Security, the new private accounts for this generation will NOT kill Roosevelt's legacy. The less economically savvy folks forced to manage their own money will invest in trendy, pump-and-dump, high flying stocks that tank shortly thereafter because your average investor chases performance; buying high and selling low. When the unwise retirees don't have enough money, a new program will be put in place with a minimum income so seniors aren't panhandling in the streets selling overripe, overpriced fruit with a heaping side order of guilt trip. This WILL be done because seniors vote and elected officials want those votes so badly they'll bankrupt the country to get them. This "new" minimum living standard program will need to be funded with taxes paid for by current wage earning young people. Does this sound familiar? What do they say about those that don't learn from history?

Hey, I got an idea!
Just for grits and shins, Let's vote for the smart guy this time! See if it works any better!
Obama '08.

Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on September 21, 2008 at 9:44 AM | PERMALINK

Here are a couple of comments that I would like to add to…
**I think team Obama could kick it up a notch by adding visual aids, whether stick people or pie charts, America needs a real picture of how frightening McCain is.
Posted by: ML on September 20, 2008 at 6:03 PM | PERMALINK **


**Since the public is basically bailing out "the financial system", then: the public should, in some sense and to a substantial extent, be given "ownership" of the financial system.**

Using charts as a part of explanations has been some of my thoughts too. But, here is the theme and the setting. Obama at a rally with big screen technology behind him, plus around the audience. A big screen large to be able to show the audience what is happening. Pie charts, bar charts and regular stock market stuff explained especially not by the media or a Republican. Obama is a quick learner but with a few extra persons that America knows will support Obama to help explain some of what is going down would be dynamite. For all the short comings Bill Clinton may have in his personal life one thing is for certain, Bill Clinton’s grasp of economic Macro, and Micro transformations that relate to the ordinary citizen is entrancing especially when Clinton gives a talk about how money has its translation into and out of the middle and lower class. Bill Clinton should be able to perceive what the heck is happening and give an honest reflection and rotation of the money being divided up in this trillion dollar fix.

America, face it Bush and Company are not telling us what is really happening, here is an interesting time when Bush continuously said our economy is resilient, yet turns around one hundred and eighty degrees to supply the resilient free market system with a trillion dollars of the electorates tax money. This Bush and
Company approach appears to me as an out and out fraud cover up.

The public ownership part !!! Yes, way over due, for heaven sakes, when ever the big guys need the money they take it in these cases just about instantly. No public discussion. And, please a trillion dollar deal here all honest and no one is in hand cuffs in orange suits before a tribunal whistle blowing like hell? America, are we the people brain dead? Wouldn’t it be interesting to have a common citizen panel as the business chief operators selected perhaps just as we might pick delegates to a convention. Placed in these corporations and share the benefits, not likely the way it operates now. That simple, likely not acceptable to these big money managers being challenged in a vary fair way because they are barrowing public money. Heck, most of these big money managers are packing up with your money and heading to the Cayman Islands a tax haven and a beautiful place where certain taxes are levied at a low rate or not at all.

Now my model for what is happening. With this trillion dollar deal, likely a down payment, is a buy out to end the election. The Bush Republicans Neo-Con’s know they will likely loose this election now but are going after everything they can. The old expression “Money talks” well America this money that is your tax dollars is screaming at us right now. I have a feeling that real Conservatives are feed up with this whole Bush bunch.

Even mainstream media loyalists at the top are going to pull the plug on McCain. Mainstream Media thinking through all this stuff is actually in a slight panic it self for supporting the Neo-Con subversives. Taking the average of commercial brakes looks like Americans have few choices viewing tax master, constant credit report stuff, and constant commercials in refunding, refinancing or easy ways to bankruptcy is alarming in the amount and time displayed that never has happened before. America these neo-con political characters have dug a hole so deep into and around Asia and the Middle East a new real view is going to be offered. Do you really think these people that live daily going about their business in what looks like pajamas all day long are going to come and invade America? Get real!

Worse, America has Bush and Company, which is close friend to the Bin laden family the primer financers of what they call pajama party terrorism but likely nothing more than drive by gang land crimes. The whole thing is disgusting and totally out of whack especially when America has secret prisons and unknown amount of mercenaries, secret CIA, FBI, and worst of all embedded Media hiding all of it in the middle of political destinies none know how to frame or know were the people of the region want to go. It is clearer that Bush has been using America’s resources for the advantage of the Arabs and likely Bush and Companies personal fortunes. All which defines treason, though very few politicians will move in this treasonous direction likely because of collateral damage or now with a banking scandal so wide so deep and so obvious that seems to be the mother of all economic failures could and would likely cause a civil war if forced to play out in the media. Heaven’s know there are a huge number of angry Americans who would like to chase some first line Journalist or hate radio Hannity down the street into a dark ally.


Posted by: Megalomania on September 21, 2008 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK




 

 

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