Obama can't win unless he can get enough support to overcome the effects of widespread voter surpression efforts.

In the history of the Pacific Theater in WW2 every Japanese Banzai Charge ended in failure despite the will and fanaticism of those in it.

What McCain did with Palin was do a metaphorical banzai charge by energizing her fundie crowd. Impressive and fierce, but crashing against the cold uncaring steel of harsh economic and foreign policy reality.

Nice, but no time for complacency. We know how bad they want it and we know how many "smart" people are in the tank who have no excuse to be. We know how many dumb voters are still puddling around, we know about October surprises, etc. Always act like your back is against the wall, because really - it always is.

Go BO-Joe!
Down with McBushlin!

More poll news like that, please!

I wonder if the knuckleheads would keep singing her praises, if her popularity continued to drop?

The interesting thing to me about that poll are the internals. Obama now has 88% of Democrats? There goes the PUMA meme.

Don't become complacent. A lot can and will happen. McCain will probably right his campaign. We have to keep pushing, and pushing hard everyday between now and the election.

Everyday we are talking about McCain's OBN staff is a day McCain loses. Thanks Rick Davis. Thanks for today.

I'd throw in a few more caveats:

With all the covert incursions going on in Pakistan, I'm betting TeamBushCo has a bead on OBL and is planning on pulling him from a cave in shackles right before the election. That'll hurt.

The economy and gas prices are going to factor HUGE and Bush will put a lot of effort into "getting things done" over the next month. Like the price at the pump will go down next month and he'll take credit for it.

Sarah Palin's poll numbers are fading... No doubt they're planning a hefty "Get to Know the Real Sarah Palin" campaign, including interviews[!], starting in mid-October to goose up the folks that actually buy into her bullshit.

If you can legally do so in your area, vote absentee. It is sometimes the only check against non-verifiable paperless e-voting machines which we KNOW can be (and probably ARE) tampered with.

"Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy..."

My personal true intuitive feeling has really flown open as to what does the Mainstream Media really know?

If the news does not get out, what ways do they use this media control, and it looks like that the big five CBS, ABC, CNN, MSNBC and FOX are deliberate and complicit as associates to perpetrate fraud with our fundemental problem in the corporate fraud world. Not only with this tax crisis, but going back to scrubbed military records of any prominent politician, especially George Bush and McCain.

Our CIA, FBI, FISA, and especially that secret agency opened up by Cheney working in the shadows for all these years is a core problem not reported, all highly and likely can be defined as treason , all ignored by basic media and their complicity to it. Worse first line Journalist knowingly daily participates all the while saying they never saw it coming, is a lie.

For heaven sakes simple Quality Control procedures are in place in many successful companies. Does anyone out there study “Probability of Error�? One of the basic rules is; large errors, beyond a certain magnitude, do not occur, that is, the probability of a very large error is zero. A trillion units of something missing is a huge error. Widgets or dollars this is ridicules, please if John Doe industrial worker was all of sudden off by a trillion dollars, he would be in front of a judge and jury in an orange suit hand cuffed in daily television broadcasts being pestered as to what happened to all the money. But, CEO’s, and the likes of Karol Rove types get to wander around open Media throwing political smear and misinformation deliberately to confuse the electorate. This is what I define as free speech treachery by those in power. This is not unintended consequences it is a deliberate crime.

Here it is obvious, and Mainstream Media across the board is for political purposes hiding the fact that basic systemic accounting principles have been compromised by loyal associates that are breaking the law. ENRON editorials are a special skill developed to bate and switch context to fool the electorate. CNN, announced FBI is investigating fraud? All the while none of the other networks say a word. Just now? All this screams at us when the Treasury Secretary says America must have this trillion dollar bail out with no accountability. When, America should haul this guy before an open public tribunal in an orange suit shackled and hand cuffed hopping to his questioning chair. Here this guy wants legislation immediately; he is either a crook, or held by aliens as hostages that want to destroy earth so for national security reason Americans doesn’t need to know what this money is used for.

The probability is this money like most of the Iraq war money is funneled to secret baby blind trust funds somewhere in Europe, then, lend it back to America, the Chinese money lending is a pretty good story, but really good stability in profiteering, or a brilliant Maverick scheme, would not be there if Chinese or Japanese money was totally involved.

Just read through the entire poll data and there is a lot of good news here. Between 9/7 and 9/22, Obama made serious progress in almost every category and question while McCain lost big ground almost everywhere.

With all the covert incursions going on in Pakistan, I'm betting TeamBushCo has a bead on OBL and is planning on pulling him from a cave in shackles right before the election. That'll hurt.

Why would that hurt Obama? That's what he suggested doing, a good while ago - targeted strikes inside Pakistan. Moreover, it's a strategy McCain criticized him for.

I know people are wary of such an "October surprise", but I'm not sure they've completely thought it through.

The lead will lengthen and will look like Obama will win till around the middle of October when Bushit launches or allows Israel to launch a preemptive strike at iranian nuclear facilities. The October Surprise that will scare the bajesus out of the moderates who will flock to McAce like flies to horse poo. It will also give the closet bigots an even bigger excuse to vote for the old guy and Snowjob Squareglasses. The excitement may even give McAce a heart attack and we'll all have the moose cutter as the President. What fun...

These polls should be viewed as a little burst of energy for Obama supporters. A boost to help them work EVEN HARDER to get out the truth and get out the vote.

The battle isn't even close to its peak.

This is going to have to be fought tooth and nail up until election day and possibly beyond.

Vigilance. Focus. Persistence.

Say that three times every morning, noon and night.

The only October surprise that might help Republicans would be the sudden creation of a few million middle class jobs. The 700 billion would be better spent on infrastructure and renewable energy than bailing out Wall Street "Masters of the Universe." Money in the hands of millions of Americans is better than in the hands of a few hundred Wall Street traitors (er traders.)

Jake: Why would that hurt Obama?

I guess I see it looking like the surge did. Bush and McCain have been successful at making the surge seem like a great idea. In turn, this has taken some of the steam out of Obama's anti-war stance.

If Bush catches OBL, he'll take credit for it. You and I will know that Obama had been pushing for this all along. But, the low-info vote-bots won't pick up on the subtlety. And they're the ones who need to be voting with their wallets. Distract them from the economy, and we could be hosed.

OK chrenson, that's a reasonable argument. I guess I just see Obama as having a pretty good counter on this scenario, and one that would likely serve to mitigate the damage pretty well.

Democrats who were white-knuckling the campaign a couple of weeks ago are probably feeling a little more encouraged right now.

And those of us who said there was no reason to panic are feeling pretty damn vindicated.

True, it's a state-by-state race -- which is good news for Obama, since he seems a lock to pick up Iowa and Colorado, thus needing to flip only one other Bush 2004 state to win -- but these polls put McCain in a lousy position going into the debates.

Sure, both campaigns will do what the can to manage expectations, but going into the debates trailing, it won't be enough for McCain to avoid losing his temper or drooling on himself. Just getting by won't do -- he will need a solid win.

Of course the right-wing noise machine will seize on any behavior or statement of Obama's at all and try to make that the story. The message to Dems is: Cool your jets. McCain needs a solid win in the debates to habe a prayer. Attempts to make the story about Obama will just be an admission from the Right that McCain blew it again.

One thing missing in this poll: People with cell phones only. A large number of younger, college-educated people these days do not have land-lines, and rely on cell phones. Since:
1) These phones are not contacted in polling efforts,
2) Young, college-educated people tended to vote almost overwhelmingly for Obama in the primary,

It might be that support for Obama is actually much higher in the general population than these polls appear.
However, it STILL means that it's vital to get out and vote, and to urge your friends/family/neighbors to do the same - by absentee ballot whenever possible, to ensure accountability.

So---"The McThing That Would Not Die" has apparently developed an affinity for falling on its own bayonet.

Where's Cleaver? He needs to reserve the script-rights to this---NOW. McCain qualifies as material for a sitcom! He could give it a draft title of "The Comedic Side of Criminalized Senility...."

Saw the video of you on Maddow last night. Great job, as always, but...uh....I thought bloggers wore pajamas. What's with the suit and the combed hair?

But seriously, your blog is one of the very best. Thank you so much.

The Dems on the Hill just screwed McCain's hope to use a faux-Populist opposition to the Bailout as his strategy to turn the race around. They said that they wouldn't pass a bill that McCain wouldn't vote for. Did you see McCain whimpering on TV afterwards -- saying that the Dems need to vote for what is best for the country, because "this is a crisis; this is a crisis"? In other words, you do the responsible thing and pass the bailout, and then let me run against it and you. Sorry McCain,

Time for a little Calvin Trillin (originally published in The Nation in March 2005):

You know the things I miss so much it hurts?
Those orange alerts.
Routines, our leaders said--and this was strange--
Should not be changed:
If we stayed home, or stopped what we'd begun,
The bad guys won.
No, we were only told to be prepared
For being scared.
And when will it return--this orange protection?
The next election.

Rejoice! If only for a moment. We're getting there, and this *my friends* is the tipping point.

They can blind-side America and empty the coffers, BUT...

THEY WON'T STEAL THIS ELECTION!

President Barack Hussein Obama!

Yep, but then there is the 'NPR' poll today that is pretending that , of course, it's actually tied ! just ask Mora Liasson ........

Oh no, Obama better do something flashy and shake up his campaign with lots of McCain-style risk taking! He's pulling another Kerry!! If he doesn't say the same things about McCain that McCain is saying about him, we'll lose!!!

Ha ha. Just wanted to give a friendly "I told you so" to all the people who were peeing themselves last week. Not that there are any guarantees in all this, but Obama has consistently shown an ability to ride through tough times and float back up to the top after losing a few newscycles and I never saw any reason we should think that wouldn't happen again. But cheap PR stunts and nasty campaign ads might have prevented that from happening. That's the kind of stuff that sinks campaigns. Just ask McCain and his lead-weight VP choice.

McCain will have to double down on the vicious...look out! It's good that his campaign has already been called out for its lies, and the mood of the voters is more substantive than just a few weeks ago.

That's the kind of stuff that sinks campaigns.

It should, but it almost never does, as evidenced by the last how many elections? In any case, I think only a few were arguing for "cheap PR stunts and nasty ads." Most were asking for less time in reaction mode and a more assertive control of the narrative, which Obama has obligingly taken.

Just ask McCain and his lead-weight VP choice.

The fact that McCain and Palin are actually getting called on their pathological lying is a (very welcome) freaking miracle, not a continuation of the usual state of affairs.

Obama has consistently shown an ability to ride through tough times and float back up to the top after losing a few newscycles

...and obsession with winning every news cycle is one thing that led to the train wreck of McCain's campaign.

McCain enjoyed a post-convention bounce? Big deal.

I didn't see shortstop's comment, and she's right -- Obama did go on the offensive, and it's welcome.

And she's right that the press calling out Republicans on their lies at all is a departure from the status quo, for all that it's welcome.

But I think again we see Obama's cool head prevailing over McCain's hot head. Obama went on the offensive over issues of his choosing -- he did not engage in the kind of shoot-from-the-hip nonsense that the McCain campaign did. The latter's obsession with winning every news cycle made the contradictions and lies too obvious to ignore. McCain demanded the media stake its own credibility on the assertion that we've always been at war with Eurasia, and the media was jsut not willing to go that far (after all, if Obama won anyway there'd be hell to pay).

chrenson@9.03 wrote:

"The economy and gas prices are going to factor HUGE and Bush will put a lot of effort into "getting things done" over the next month. Like the price at the pump will go down next month and he'll take credit for it."

I have to disagree on that one. I don't see Bush doing anything to help McCain. He's not the "helpful" sort for others. Besides, he's been hiding for the past few months. Why isn't he speaking to the country on this economic crisis?

I mean, I'm glad he's not speaking to the country because he could have nothing rational to say, BUT, most presidents would be out there, attempting to do some "leading".

as the great baseball man branch rickey once said, luck is the residue of design.

so to follow up on gregory, obama's cool head was design; the luck was that just as the mccain camp was overreaching on sordid, the american public was reminded that there are real issues, and electing a crazy old coot and his soulmate when you've got a cool, calm, collected leader available started to seem a little...silly.

PS. as gregory knows, i've long advocated a common ground between democrats and honest conservatives in the interests of restoring rationality to our political discourse; obama may well be pulling that off.

as gregory knows, i've long advocated a common ground between democrats and honest conservatives in the interests of restoring rationality to our political discourse; obama may well be pulling that off.

Sadly, these comment threads are not that commong ground; we get no honest conservatives here.

I'd throw in the excesses of the Bush Administration as well. For example, the Republicans started losing John Cole during the Terri Schiavo fiasco, and now he refuses to have anything to do with the Republican Party until they kick out the lunatic fringe that runs it.

In any case, I think only a few were arguing for "cheap PR stunts and nasty ads." Most were asking for less time in reaction mode and a more assertive control of the narrative, which Obama has obligingly taken.

Shortstop - I'm not exactly sure what the difference here is. How do you take assertive control of the narrative when the newscycle is against you, short of cheap PR stunts and gimmicks? The reason Obama has been able to take back the narrative is because of the financial crunch, not because people were peeing themselves and demanding that Obama get tougher. As he did during the primaries, when the newscycle was against him, he rode through it rather than trying to win it back. And then he waited until a better newscycle came along and was well-positioned to grab it.

One of the big mistakes people make in politics is to imagine that you have to win every battle. You don't, and sometimes, it's best to go into a defensive retreat until a better battle comes along. This has been Obama's method from the beginning. He lost quite a few newscycles against Hillary too, but always ended up back on top. You don't need to win every fight and it's best to pick battles that are on your turf. Obama did that, and is now riding high again. The all-offense, all-the-time theory is incorrect. It's a recipe for disaster in war and politics. The trick is knowing how to get back on offense when the time is right. Obama has shown he can do that.

And overall, McCain's campaign is NOTHING like the Bush campaigns. Bush never directly went negative. That's what the astroturf groups were for, while Bush kept his hands clean. And Bush never had campaign ads that were as dishonest as McCain's. And finally, Bush had a much better marketing machine at his disposal. Those people had message discipline and knew how to attack without getting too dirty. But McCain has surrounded himself with the worst of the worst and these guys are CLUELESS as to how to run a negative campaign. These guys would be great running astroturf campaigns against Obama. But they're sinking McCain with this dirty stuff and keep stepping on their own messages every day. Again, this is nothing like the previous elections.

And finally, Palin wasn't sunk by the lies. Palin was a fad that was never going to last. It wasn't McCain's negative ads that had him up in the polls. It was just a brief bump due to Palin's fifteen minutes of fame. But now that has worn off and McCain's worse-off than where he was. But most of the non-conservatives who liked Palin were just expressing joy at seeing a shiny new thing. They were never going to be there long-term. And this is exactly what many of us were saying the whole time. The lies hurt her, but she was never going to retain her celebrity status. People without substance never do.

With all the covert incursions going on in Pakistan, I'm betting TeamBushCo has a bead on OBL and is planning on pulling him from a cave in shackles right before the election. That'll hurt. -chrenson

I've always had that fear in the back of my mind, but I think it's very unlikely. Actually, I always figured it more likely that bin Laden was dying and as a final act of martyrdom, turned himself in so he'd be executed by the US.

Just like Obi Wan, it would make him more powerful than we could possibly imagine.

But even that I think it unlikely.

I suspect the skirmishes with Pakistan have more to do with the changing of the guard from Musharaf to Zardari.

Zardari is anxious to proove to the Arab world that he's not our guy. Funny, he's not said 'thanks, but no thanks,' to all the aid we're sending Pakistan. Imagine that.

Really, though, I'm surprised Zardari and Bush aren't best buddies. They seem to be birds of a feather with regards to corruption.

Why isn't he speaking to the country on this economic crisis? -phoebes in sante fe

His attempt to extort nearly a trillion dollars from taxpayers will be on television tonight.

I've been one of the 'don't panic, don't attack except on the issues, but keep working' people and am glad to see my patience justified. But I think there are a couple of issue-areas where Palin, in particular, can be attacked.

One is her anti-choice stand. There was an article I linked to through HuffPo about women in 'middle America' and how they viewed Palin. Repeatedly there were comments from pro-Palin women that "they didn't like her 'pro-life' (or anti-gay in one case) stand, but you can't have everything."

Women like this, I think, tend to see Palin like all the Republican candidates since Reagan, someone who 'talks the talk but won't walk the walk.' (The confusion about her comments after Bristol's pregnancy -- where people heard 'it's her choice to keep the baby' and didn't realize she meant 'rather than put it up for adoption' NOT 'rather than abort it' -- didn't help.)

She WILL 'walk the walk,' her whole career and campaigning shows this, and a few well-placed ads by NOW or Planned Parenthood emphasizing that this isn't just a 'talking point' might swing another 5% away from McCain-Palin.

We need to get 20 points ahead, because:

* 5 points will be lost in voter suppression and voting machine irregularities

* 5 points will be lost in the "Bradley effect"

* 5 points will be lost in October surprise

* 5 points to get a clear mandate and shut up the lying scoundrels for a little while.

Don't let up, keep on pushin'!

We need to get 20 points ahead, because:

* 5 points will be lost in voter suppression and voting machine irregularities

* 5 points will be lost in the "Bradley effect"

* 5 points will be lost in October surprise

* 5 points to get a clear mandate and shut up the lying scoundrels for a little while.

Don't let up, keep on pushin'!