Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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September 27, 2008

THE POLLS AND FOCUS GROUPS.... The insta-reactions in the polls are not always the most reliable measurements. The sample sizes are modest, and the public is often swayed after the fact by media analysis. That said, the initial data after last night's debate certainly looks favorable for Obama.

Isaac Chotiner noted the focus group results, for example: "For what it's worth: The Frank Luntz and Stanley Greenberg focus groups went overwhelmingly for Obama."

The CBS poll, which focused exclusively on undecided voters, found that a plurality, 39% to 25%, believed Obama "won" the debate, though over a third, 36%, saw it as a "draw."

CNN appears to have released the longest and most detailed of the debate-related polls. TPM reported:

Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the best job in the debate -- Barack Obama or John McCain? Obama 51% McCain 38%

Did _______ do a better or worse job than you expected?
Obama: Better 57%, Worse 20%, Same 23%
McCain: Better 60%, Worse 20%, Same 18%

Next, regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or John McCain would better handle each of the following issues:
* The war in Iraq: Obama 52%, McCain 47%
* Terrorism: McCain 49%, Obama 45%
* The economy: Obama 58%, McCain 37%
* The current financial crisis: Obama 54%, McCain 36%

The respondents to the CNN poll also found Obama to be "more intelligent," more eloquent, more sincere, more likable, more in touch with the needs of regular people, and someone who seems like a "strong leader." McCain had a huge edge when it came to which candidate "spent more time attacking his opponent."

Asked about the candidates' readiness to handle the job of president, 69% expressed confidence in Obama, and 68% said the same about McCain.

Nate Silver has some solid analysis of the data, which is worth checking out.

I'd just add that these polls matter, not just in offering a glimpse at the public's response, but also because the results help shape the conventional wisdom.

Steve Benen 7:32 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (18)
 
Comments

I wish that someone would poll public perceptions of each candidates' truthfulness. High information voters know that McCain lies constantly, but I wonder how Obama's "that's just not so ..." responses resonate with undecided, low information voters. Does he need to ostentatiously check to see if McCain's pants are on fire midway through the next debate?

Posted by: Eric on September 27, 2008 at 8:03 AM | PERMALINK

Just some of my own observations:

McCain, especially considering this past week, far exceeded my expectation.

This might have been Obama's strongest debate. He was far less tentative than he was in the primary debates.

McCain's demeanor, constant smirking and overall nastiness really didn't come across as presidential. Obama, on the other hand, seemed so presidential that he seemed like the incumbant.

I think Obama was wise not to attack in a negative, insulting way, however, he had sever opportunities for a Ronald Reagan "there you go again" moment that would have given him a commanding win. He didn't do it. He needs to go for the jugular. He conceeded too many points to McCain.

There was something that hung over the entire debate. McCain spent the whole debate painting Obama as a clueless, inexperienced, reckless political opportunist. Obama was clearly far to intelligent, educated and in command of the issues for that to stick, but it did constantly bring Sarah Palin to mind. McCain called his own judgement into question.

McCain obviously has no clue to the consequences this economic situation has for the average person.

Posted by: Saint Zak on September 27, 2008 at 8:08 AM | PERMALINK

I am expecting to see an Obama bounce in the polls. If 100,000,000 actually watched the debate several million independents are going to be reassured that Obama is up to the job. I agree that Obama came across as presidential. Obama won despite McCain being at the top of his game.

I bet people who listened to the debate instead of watching it had a better impression of McCain. His great weakness was his refusal to make eye contact. His body language screamed contempt. A President can't be contemptuous of his opposite number. If he is he has lost.

Posted by: Ron Byers on September 27, 2008 at 8:18 AM | PERMALINK

He was far less tentative than he was in the primary debates. Saint Zak

I suspect part of that is that it's easier to debate ideas and claims that are polar opposite to your own, than slightly nuanced differences as with Clinton and Edwards.

McCain's strategy at times seemed to be to make 10 false claims, knowing Obama would only be able to correct a couple. That's probably a winning stragegy with low info voters, but I doubt many of those watch debates.

I also don't think it was particularly helpful to McCain to make constant references to Reagan, Lebanon, Kissinger, Eisenhower, etc. I suspect most people, young or old, realize this is a different age, and frankly, even then, McCain's overall positions are way out of line with those he cited.

If I had to summarize the debate in three words, it would be efficient vs thoughtful.

Posted by: Danp on September 27, 2008 at 8:23 AM | PERMALINK

We are facing a great depression in this nation again. Neither of these candidates have a clue. And yet blogs like this mindlessly carry on about debating style. Barack Obama and John McCain had absolutely nothing to say about what to do to get the nation out of this disaster. Who lost the debate? America.

Posted by: Thingumbob Esq. on September 27, 2008 at 8:29 AM | PERMALINK

Obama did fine. But the debate did touch on some trouble spots for both him and McCain that should give all of us some pause. Our long emergency of multiple and stacked crises is upon us. Elect Obama but put your own house in order.

Posted by: lou on September 27, 2008 at 8:31 AM | PERMALINK

John McCain Devastates Barack Obama
When in a debate when your opponent continuously is saying, "Sen. McCain you are absolutely right' over and over, it probably is a sign you are being devastated.

Barack Obama was devastated in the first debate in Mississippi.

It is a great deal in riding on the line in the first debate as no one wants to blow them. John McCain was quite reserved and too much the gentleman in not pointing out on the economic question the well known fact that he sponsored Senate bill 190 which would have stopped the entire stock market meltdown while Barack Obama stopped the bill and took over one hundred thousand dollars from Fannie and Freddie.

By the next hour and a half though John McCain took off his gloves and pounded Barack Obama on the simplest of terms on Georgia, Iran, Russia, security and prosperity in dealing with allies and enemies.
The simple terms are right and wrong actions with Mr. Obama not even having been to Afghanistan as his committee oversees that area with him as chairman. I found myself wondering if he actually knew that the United States has taken operational control of Afghanistan from the British this week who (though good allies do not say this) really screwed up Afghanistan which was won in the same way the Brits messed up the secure area of southern Iraq which seemed impossible.

In watching the debate, Sen. McCain actually looked younger than Barack Obama. McCain was on target and looked age 45 while Obama seemed to grey in his hair and look age 55.
A strange condition Obama has is he dips his head, looks down in the camera so his eyes look beady and sinister and then he starts talking at the camera.

Obama made mistakes in speaking, his facts and fell into a massive trap John McCain had laid out.

There was a Reagan moment planned in "Well there he goes again". In McCain's case, he would point out where Obama was wrong on policy in not understanding the difference in military terms between tactic and strategy and then kept riding in every segment, "Obama is naive and inexperienced".

By the end of the debate Barack Obama who had started the debate in using the condescending term, "John" while Mr. McCain was calling him Sen. Obama, Mr. Obama was calling Mr. McCain, "Senator McCain".
That type of gaff proves who is the alpha male in the room.

Barack Obama was rattled and kept repeating as this commentary began, "Sen. McCain is right".

The 10 year old Obama tried very hard to play with an adult, but his programming short circuited after the first 15 minutes.

Mr. Obama honestly looked like he had aged 10 years in trying to deal with John McCain.

That says it all.

Posted by: on September 27, 2008 at 9:05 AM | PERMALINK
The respondents to the CNN poll also found Obama to be "more intelligent," more eloquent, more sincere, more likable, more in touch with the needs of regular people [emphasis added]
Could we perhaps be seeing the long-awaited death of the obnoxious "elitism" attack angle? Could it be that, maybe just maybe, people are beginning to realize that being smart doesn't automatically disqualify you from being a nice person? For the sake of our nation, it'd better be... Posted by: Bernard HP Gilroy on September 27, 2008 at 9:27 AM | PERMALINK

Nice cut and past job up above:

http://lamecherry.blogspot.com/2008/09/john-mccain-devastates-barack-obama.html

Posted by: 2Manchu on September 27, 2008 at 9:41 AM | PERMALINK

What is so instructive in these polls of the actual people watching the debate, the results of them, seemed to have shocked all the stupid pundit pimps on cable: all of them were ever so eager to force their veiws on this same public: that is was basically a 'draw'. never mind what the actual people in the country are saying ..no, makes no difference .. only important to force their opinions, as the truth, yet again down peoples throats ...........

Posted by: stormskies on September 27, 2008 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK

Whoever wrote that McCain looked younger than Obama, I wonder what he was smoking. I was actually impressed by McCain's performance (and I'm an Obama supporter) but what struck me most was how old and tense he looked. When he got excited I was afraid any minute he would have a stroke. I really wonder whether he's up to the strains of the presidency. And the prospect of a President Palin is too scary for words.

Posted by: Phil P on September 27, 2008 at 10:21 AM | PERMALINK

A lot has been said of Hon. Sen. McCain's demeanor. As a rule, I listen to these events on the radio--mostly to get a different feel but also to make watching the coverage more bearable-- so I didn't pick up on this. Ms. Bolger (CNN) mentioned that most undecided voters are women (I hadn't heard this before/don't know whether it's true). So I wonder if these women might be both more influenced by this and more attuned to (sensitive to) the personal qualities that each candidate has (is it sexist to think this)?

Posted by: jhm on September 27, 2008 at 10:32 AM | PERMALINK

McCain had a huge edge when it came to which candidate "spent more time attacking his opponent." -- Steve Benen

That was one thing that struck me too, last night. He seems to "know" more about what *Obama* would do as a President, than he knows about his own plans for the future; all he knows about himself is rambling personal stories from the past.

PS What's with the Rapid Eye Movement? McCain blinked so often and so fast, the wind from that could have powered one of his mansions for a week.

Posted by: exlibra on September 27, 2008 at 2:20 PM | PERMALINK

::What's with the Rapid Eye Movement? McCain blinked so often and so fast, the wind from that could have powered one of his mansions for a week.::

He blinks when he's lying. More blinks=bigger lies. It's a tell.

Posted by: tam1MI on September 27, 2008 at 3:18 PM | PERMALINK

This is a great 1-page summary of Obama's 55-page plan for America called THE BLUEPRINT FOR CHANGE:

http://www.obamaataglance.com

Posted by: Vivek Hutheesing on September 27, 2008 at 6:15 PM | PERMALINK

9/26
So many people participate in so many polls, sometimes repeatedly, so how accurate CAN they be? I realize demographics are important but why don't they ask questions to the people in general, without location, race, age, etc.?

Posted by: elizabeth on September 27, 2008 at 7:45 PM | PERMALINK

9/26
So many people participate in so many polls, sometimes repeatedly, so how accurate CAN they be? I realize demographics are important but why don't they ask questions to the people in general, without location, race, age, etc.?

Posted by: elizabeth on September 27, 2008 at 7:46 PM | PERMALINK

9/26
So many people participate in so many polls, sometimes repeatedly, so how accurate CAN they be? I realize demographics are important but why don't they ask questions to the people in general, without location, race, age, etc.?

Posted by: elizabeth on September 27, 2008 at 7:46 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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