September 27, 2008
WHY AN OBAMA WINS MATTERS.... Depending on your perspective and scorecard, most observers seem to think either Obama won a narrow victory in the debate, or McCain won a narrow victory. It's worth remembering, though, that the larger political context suggests neither result gave McCain what he needed.
Remember, McCain went into the debate moving in the wrong direction. Recent polls show him falling behind, the "suspend the campaign" gimmick was largely a flop, and as voters' attention moved to the economy, the race quickly shifted to McCain's weakest area.
Given this, last night was a genuine opportunity for McCain. The debate was focused largely on foreign policy and national security, issues perceived as McCain's strength by voters, the media, and McCain himself. It was, in this sense, an event that McCain could use to turn the whole campaign around.
Except, that clearly didn't happen. Whether it was a tie or a slight win for either candidate isn't especially important -- McCain needed a clear, dominating victory. He didn't get one. Not even close.
For Obama, the dynamic is reversed. He's benefitted as the race has shifted to the economy, but he needed to demonstrate last night that he's a credible, knowledgeable figure on foreign policy, ready to go toe to toe with a candidate with a more extensive background in international affairs. And, he did.
Usually, describing someone as having "held his own" sounds like underwhelming, or possibly even a mild insult. But in this case, saying Obama "held his own" against McCain on foreign policy and national security isn't such a bad thing at all. For a lot of people, at home and in the media, McCain was the only candidate in the race who could speak with any authority on these issues. Obama proved them wrong.
(For the record, I thought Obama more than "held his own" on foreign policy. Like Fred Kaplan, I actually saw Obama as being far stronger on the issue. I mention the "held his own" meme, because it seems to have quickly become part of the conventional wisdom.)
McCain needed a big night to turn things around, and he didn't get it. In this context, no matter how close viewers perceived the debate, it was a missed opportunity for a candidate who won't get too many more chances to change the race.
—Steve Benen 8:15 AM
Permalink
| Trackbacks
| Comments (37)
The only voters this great "debate" will have any impact for are the undecided, and how many of them there really are is -another great debate...
Posted by: mikey on September 27, 2008 at 8:26 AM | PERMALINK
One thing the debate did for Mac was allow him to reset after a disastrous week of Fkups by his campaign. If there's a deal in DC for the bailout most of his (and Sarah's) mistakes from last week will be forgotten. If he teams with the House Republicans to derail a deal? Then he's really cooked. We're in the 5th inning with Obama up by 3. It's not over yet.
Posted by: wren on September 27, 2008 at 8:29 AM | PERMALINK
To paraphrae Joe Biden, it was one more nail in the coffin.
Posted by: rab on September 27, 2008 at 8:29 AM | PERMALINK
I will bet you that a lot of voters were worried about Obama's ability to go toe to toe with McCain. He did. He reminded me of Reagan when he beat Carter. A lot of people are going to feel better about supporting Obama.
The debate last night didn't change the tread to Obama. Maybe Sarah Palin will have better luck against Joe Biden.
Posted by: Ron Byers on September 27, 2008 at 8:32 AM | PERMALINK
To paraphrase Joe Biden - John held the nail while Obama hammered it into the Mccain/Palin coffin.
Posted by: rab on September 27, 2008 at 8:32 AM | PERMALINK
Obama, admirably, held his own. But I would have liked to have seen him challenge the conventional wisdom more on such issues like admitting more countries like Georgia into NATO, the Middle East paradigm, the real prospect for "winning" in Afghanistan, the threat of expanding the war into Pakistan, etc. I don't feel like there is an overriding vision on just how this clusterfuck of globalization is going to continue to function in a world stressed by overpopulation and resource depletion. But, to be fair, Obama had to prove himself on a stage created by years and years of misguided and disastrous foreign policies originating from the fallibility of group think concentrated in Washington. Whether or not Obama can escape from that trap and become a truly visionary leader uniting the world toward an eco centric sustainability is the real big question to me.
Posted by: lou on September 27, 2008 at 8:50 AM | PERMALINK
You captured my reaction far better than I could. Exactly.
Posted by: Some Guy on September 27, 2008 at 8:56 AM | PERMALINK
On the optics, I'd call the debate a clear (if not overwhelming) win for Obama.
As things play out over the next couple of days, I expect the narrative to be that McCain was disrespectful of his opponent -- the repeated "what senator Obama doesn't understand..." & the odd eye contact thing (apparently McCain didn't even look at Obama when they shook hands before & after the debate).
To my eye Obama was cool & collected while McCain was rambling & whiny. Ordinarily I'd expect the MSM to run defense for McCain's petulance, but after a month of McCain shunning & dissing the press, I'm not so sure anymore.
Posted by: raff on September 27, 2008 at 8:59 AM | PERMALINK
I would have liked to have seen him challenge the conventional wisdom more on such issues like admitting more countries like Georgia into NATO -lou
Yes, thank you. I cringed when Obama supported Georgia and the Ukraine in Nato. Also while he said he wanted to see the particulars of any new compromise on the bailout (that's only fair), I want badly for him to attack the nonsense that Reps in Congress want in terms of the federal government insuring bank loans on an FDIC-like program.
Posted by: Danp on September 27, 2008 at 9:02 AM | PERMALINK
I believe Obama looked more presidential than McCain, who came across as shrill.
Looking forward to the next debate, with Biden and the Killa From Wasilla.
Posted by: Lew Scannon on September 27, 2008 at 9:05 AM | PERMALINK
Did anybody else notice on the split screen when Obama was speaking and McLame realized that Obama had hit on one of the talking points he had rehearsed..he got all fidgety and smiley like a five year old ooh..ooh.. I know the answer to that one ..pick me teacher pick me. Obama needs to nail him with a question that will give us one of his deer-in-the-headlights I'll get back to you moments.
Posted by: John R on September 27, 2008 at 9:11 AM | PERMALINK
Killa from Wasilla is good, but Mooselini is better. Sadly, I can't take credit for it.
Posted by: Michael7843853 on September 27, 2008 at 9:28 AM | PERMALINK
Where Obama really helped himself were the occasions where he successfully corrected McCain. It takes a lot of air out of the 'experience' argument when the 'inexperienced candidate' successfully corrects the 'experienced one'.
The eye contact thing is one of those psycho-babble things media can never seem to resist. This may end up damaging McCain more than anything said or unsaid during the debate. It speaks to honesty, which is an issue that has been dogging McCain. As the saying goes, "Can you look me in the eye and tell me..."
Posted by: JoeW on September 27, 2008 at 9:32 AM | PERMALINK
I think, in their search for non=policy talking points, the media is going to focus on John McCain not looking once at Obama.
Obama looks, Obama says "Lohn MCain is right..." While McCain is locked into his scenario, angry, doctrinaire, prepped but totally inflexible.
Posted by: pbg on September 27, 2008 at 9:39 AM | PERMALINK
Best moments for Obama:
* Bringing up McCain's support for the Iraqi occupation and pointing out McCain's predictions. "You were wrong."
* Tying him to Bush's failed economic policies which have hurt Americans for the last eight years. Obama mentioned that several times and how can that not resonate with indy voters? That's an important point/distinction to make.
* McCain: I'm wearing a bracelet. Obama: Well, so am I!
* Obama bringing up Kissinger's philosophy that you talk with your adversaries. McCain could do nothing except mutter "Kissinger's a long-time friend of mine." That's an act of desperation. It's nothing substantive.
* Obama bringing up McCain's Spain gaffe. How soon we forget in this constantly changing news cycle.
Obama, Obama, Obama. He won by a TKO.
Now comes the more excruciating debate to watch: Biden v. McCain. I predict another Admiral Stockdale performance by Palin. Stay tuned!
Posted by: ctrenta on September 27, 2008 at 9:41 AM | PERMALINK
Best moments for Obama:
* Bringing up McCain's support for the Iraqi occupation and pointing out McCain's predictions. "You were wrong."
* Tying him to Bush's failed economic policies which have hurt Americans for the last eight years. Obama mentioned that several times and how can that not resonate with indy voters? That's an important point/distinction to make.
* McCain: I'm wearing a bracelet. Obama: Well, so am I!
* Obama bringing up Kissinger's philosophy that you talk with your adversaries. McCain could do nothing except mutter "Kissinger's a long-time friend of mine." That's an act of desperation. It's nothing substantive.
* Obama bringing up McCain's Spain gaffe. How soon we forget in this constantly changing news cycle.
Obama, Obama, Obama. He won by a TKO.
Now comes the more excruciating debate to watch: Biden v. McCain. I predict another Admiral Stockdale performance by Palin. Stay tuned!
Posted by: ctrenta on September 27, 2008 at 9:42 AM | PERMALINK
I agree that Obama did well on foreign affairs.
I particularly liked his response to McCain's overused reference to the bracelet. "Don't let other mothers suffer as I have" vs. "Don't let my son's death be in vain" shows there are two valid points of view and Obama's is a better fit to an increasingly war-weary country.
I also liked the line "McCain wants to pretend the Iraq war started in 2007" and Obama's staying on message that Afghanistan was the real central war on terror and that McCain was happy to ignore it in favor of starting the war in Iraq. I think McCain really lost it when he said Pakistan was a failed country before Musharraff took power.
I do however, wish Obama had been more forceful in responding to McCain on the Russia/Georgia conflict. McCain portrayed Obama as naive for calling for restraint from both sides and Obama just basically said he was equally firm as McCain in condemning Russia's actions. Obama had a great opportunity to point out that while nothing justified Russia's response, Georgia fired the first shot and had plenty of opportunities to escalate even further. Particularly with McCain trying to portray Russia's actions as an attempt to recreate the Russian empire, Obama could have portrayed McCain's views as dangerously paranoid and confrontational rather than firm and resolute.
Btw, I have already seen a new McCain ad, this one on the Wall Street crisis. After all his grandstanding this week, he has the gall to say Obama's only response is talk and taxes.
Posted by: tanstaafl on September 27, 2008 at 9:47 AM | PERMALINK
I keep reading pundit opinions that Obama did better on economy and McCain on foreign policy. I gotta tell you, I think all of you is too affected by your preconceived notions.
I watched this on CNN, which had an audience reaction graph at the bottom. On the economy the independents weren't overly enthusiastic about either candidate, possibly giving a slight edge to Obama.
But on foreign policy Obama just kicked McCain's butt among the independents.
The independents were very consistent in their reactions. They loved signs of cooperation, bipartisanship, working together, specific plans for the future. They hated animosity, pandering, and cheap shots. This was true throughout both sections of the debate.
And if you think back to the foreign policy section you'll see why Obama did so much better. "I agree with Senator McCain" got huge ratings. "Senator Obama is naive" caused the ratings to hit the dumpster. (Funny how many pundits and Republicans thought that was a mistake on Obama's part -- they really don't understand the undecided voter.) Talk of rebuilding our reputation abroad and of diplomacy got great ratings. Talk of warmongering got poor ratings.
Obama's biggest win was the "preconditions to talk to Iran" topic. Throughout that whole topic McCain got very poor independent ratings and Obama was near the ceiling. The second biggest was talk about getting out of Iraq -- McCain just doesn't get that independents are not impressed by the "surge", they see the war as a huge mistake, and want out NOW.
Also, McCain's bracelet spiel fell very flat, with low ratings. An obvious pander. Obama's response started even but quickly moved to very high approval.
Forget the character polls for a minute and remember that Obama's foreign policy positions are by far the more popular of the two candidates. The difference between him and all the other Democrats, including Hillary, is that he expresses those opinions confidently and unapologetically. Of COURSE what he said on foreign policy reasonated with the middle-of-the-roaders -- it was what they wanted to hear.
Posted by: Anonny on September 27, 2008 at 9:51 AM | PERMALINK
My partner picked up on something that, while substance-free, is interesting. I was watching the debate, and he came in and watched for a moment while McCain was speaking. Then he remarked "Look how McCain has that makeup slathered on. It looks like he put it on with a trowel. And he's not looking into the camera - he's staring at the audience in the room." Then the camera shifted to Obama, and he remarked "See... Obama's looking you in the eye and looks human, while McCain is staring off into space looking embalmed."
I read on Andrew Sullivan's blog a posting that said if you turned OFF the sound, Obama won on visual images alone.
Posted by: Eeyore on September 27, 2008 at 9:52 AM | PERMALINK
There were no great forensic breakthroughs by either man, but that's not the point; the only places those happen is in courtroom dramas like "Inherit the Wind" or "The Caine Mutiny". Obama stood there calm and assured, smart and certain. He broke out once: the "wrong" litany, but even there showed restraint.
The berserk Muslim of winger creation was nowhere evident. This was the new guy who does your taxes and finds a few deductions that the old guy couldn't. A drama-free president may be what the country really wants: it's "Dave" vs. "The Deer Hunter".
Posted by: Steve Paradis on September 27, 2008 at 9:56 AM | PERMALINK
Maybe I wasn't expecting much from McCain, but I thought he did a better job of translating his points into take-away messages for the average viewer. Obama made his points fairly well but he just doesn't seem to have the killer instinct. He had a lot of opportunities to really stick it to McCain, to show that his judgments have been poor and his motivations suspect. Instead he got caught up a lot in McCain's narrative, playing defense. He is way too polite, not a fighter in these things.
Posted by: RAK on September 27, 2008 at 10:05 AM | PERMALINK
The debate showcased the qualities that I find most unappealing about John McCain--both as a person and a political figure.
He was nasty, dismissive, and condescending throughout the debate, even while not looking Barack Obama in the eye. His contempt and hatred toward Obama was painfully obvious the whole time.
He repeated at least one statement that any informed voter knows by now is a lie. The lie is that Obama would increase taxes on those making $42K or less--he has promised tax cuts for 95% of taxpayers (making less than $250K).
He was also insistent upon repeating regurgitated tidbits such as Obama's refusal to acknowledge the success of the surge, although Obama has previously conceded that the surge worked beyond his wildest expectations. He was fixated on Iraq, while Obama talked about a number of issues that affect national security--namely, Al Queda.
And as for his argument about inexperience on Obama's part, Obama successfully deflected that by showing his savviness on international affairs.
McCain himself has already undercut that argument by selecting one of the most unqualified VP picks in recent memory. Let us also not forget that McCain was talking about spending cuts in everything except national defense.
I have tried to give McCain the benefit of the doubt, but the more I see him in action and hear him talk, the less I like him--especially the thought of a McCain presidency.
Posted by: Anne on September 27, 2008 at 10:06 AM | PERMALINK
I would feel a lot better today if Obama would not have said "John is right..." or "I agree with John..." 11 times. It was as if he was shoring up McCain's credentials. Had he not done that then Obama would have knocked him out.
Obama also needed to call McCain out on his lies and attack him a little more. It is refreshing to see someone fight on principles but there is a visceral need also to see your guy dominate the other.
Posted by: coral on September 27, 2008 at 10:12 AM | PERMALINK
McCain's job was to make Obama's brand of change scary. His best opportunity to do so is on foreign policy, and the best time to do that was last night. Hence the "dangerous" and "naive" meme. I didn't think it worked, because Obama "held his own", showed he had his own ideas and could explain them. The polls indicate that most people agree. So this was a huge missed opportunity for McCain, and unless there is some event which shakes things up, or he is able to connect with one of the Hail Mary's he's concocting, he'll be fighting uphill all the way to Nov 4.
Posted by: Jeff S. on September 27, 2008 at 10:41 AM | PERMALINK
Eeyore has an important point, IMO.
The most important consequence of Hon. Sen. McCain not garnering any bug bounce from this is that it makes the odds that he'll feel a need to do some random showboating more likely. This has more of a chance of backfiring, and puts even more pressure on Gov. Palin (I'm not sure I will be able to even listen to this). I guess we will now have to wait and see what the expectations are for Hon. Sen. Biden.
Will Senator Obama go into the next matchup with Senator McCain with any need to to better than he would have had he not "won" this event, especially since it will ostensibly be on a topic with which he is perceived to have a greater facility? Inquiring minds want to know.
Posted by: jhm on September 27, 2008 at 10:44 AM | PERMALINK
Obama gave us numbers. McCain stuck to talking points. How is 18 billion in earmarks equivalent to 300 billion in tax-cuts to those least in need of financial handouts?
Obama hit a point about alternative energy, McCain has voted against AE for 26 years. If you watch JM's face during this he clearly reveals that Obama is telling the truth, he grimaces/smiles/shrugs.
The right will say so what(?) to the eye contact stuff. In my view it's huge. It was if John detested Obama, that he didn't deserve to share the stage with him.
Above all, John seemed like a mean old man. Do we really want a leader of the free world to piss folks off?
Posted by: Tom Nicholson on September 27, 2008 at 10:44 AM | PERMALINK
Does anyone know of campaigns that were run better than Obama's or worse than McCain's? I can't come up with examples of either, but my knowledge of American elections is minimal before Nixon. It's horrifying that the election is so close, but then this is a nation that elected Nixon twice, Reagan twice, and G.W. Bush twice.
Posted by: N.Wells on September 27, 2008 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK
I posted this elsewhere last night:
Since, as we all know, McCain is a lying, grandstanding buffoon who’s never thought any of this stuff through and will never discuss policy seriously, how exactly is Obama supposed to ‘mop the floor with him’? Since McCain doesn’t engage, it’s not a real debate. And since the media, from all directions, persists in presenting McCain as a credible candidate, of course they`re going to call it a toss-up.
Does anyone else get royally frosted when McCain gets picked as better on Iraq or terrorism simply because he's the Republican or because he's a 'war hero' or some such bullshit? God forbid any of those hair-dooed pundits actually look at his track record and then call it for what it is.
Posted by: henry lewis on September 27, 2008 at 10:55 AM | PERMALINK
N. Wells: It's horrifying that the election is so close...
Well, McCain gets a GOP and a POW bounce from the pundits, he gets a 'maverick' bounce from the reporters and he gets a racism bounce from a large segment of the public and still Obama has an edge.
I suppose we should be grateful.
Posted by: henry lewis on September 27, 2008 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK
Please fix the title of the article; it should read "Why an Obama WIN Matters". Let's not give the righties who troll this blog an excuse to suggest we're igna-int. Thanks.
orange
Posted by: Mark on September 27, 2008 at 11:29 AM | PERMALINK
"Look how McCain has that makeup slathered on. It looks like he put it on with a trowel."
I know! He's such a trollop, that cunt!
Posted by: Cindy McCain on September 27, 2008 at 11:31 AM | PERMALINK
When McCain said that he supports veterans, I wish Obama had brought up McCain's voting record in that area. I don't see how a veteran with a brain (or curiosity) could possibly support McCain.
Posted by: Suzy F on September 27, 2008 at 11:32 AM | PERMALINK
While his case blows, I thought McCain did a better job at delivery.
Your observation that McCain needed to CRUSH Obama is very reassuring.
Thanks.
Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on September 27, 2008 at 11:32 AM | PERMALINK
It looks like he put it on with a trowel.
To be fair, McCain didn't put it on himself. He has a makeup artist is from American Idol. Who's the celebrity, McCain?
Posted by: doubtful on September 27, 2008 at 11:50 AM | PERMALINK
The only reason to vote for McCain has been because of the perception that he was better at national security and foreign policy. It's well understood that when it comes to caring about anything else, John is a weakling. The only way McCain could win last night's debate is to make us all believe that the nation would be in serious trouble if Obama was directing defense and foreign policy. That didn't happen. Obama more than held his own and turned this into a contest not of who was the only one who knew their stuff, but of which perspective would voters more closely agree with. Advantage Obama.
Posted by: petorado on September 27, 2008 at 12:52 PM | PERMALINK
The narrow victory/ no knockout meme is pointless. It is just another ploy to keep ratings and offer the same evenness to coverage.
John McCain talked about why all of the shit in the past was so important to today's world. Not to say that history isn't a great example, but he did nothing to tie the past to the present. Completely ignoring America's influence in the middle east, specifically the rise in oil price that has enriched these countries he rails against and warns of their ability to fund terror - and how his approach would do anything to solve the challenges - other than more wars.
Having not lived through all of the wars and conflicts he cited, I couldn't get on board, and I just don't trust him. He talks about a guy in another country threatening violence against citizens of some other country, all I can think of is that he is talking about himself too!
Posted by: TBone on September 27, 2008 at 2:00 PM | PERMALINK
Depending on your perspective and scorecard, most observers seem to think either Obama won a narrow victory in the debate, or McCain won a narrow victory. It's worth remembering, though, that the larger political context suggests neither result gave McCain what he needed.
Exactly right, Steve. McCain needed to change the game, and just acted like a jerk. The Republican base will love it -- and shame on them for it -- but as I said last night, the center finds his performance full of "meh."
Posted by: Gregory on September 27, 2008 at 3:55 PM | PERMALINK