September 29, 2008
CLEARING THE CREDIBILITY HURDLE.... Most of the polls since Friday night have shown Barack Obama as the "winner" of the first presidential candidate debate. But for the Obama campaign, this perception was a secondary goal -- the principal objective was for Obama to prove himself as a credible leader prepared for the presidency. In this sense, Friday was as much about improving perceptions as it was the specific task at hand.
With that in mind, a new Gallup poll will no doubt be welcome at Obama campaign headquarters.
Although the debate was supposed to deal with foreign policy, the first portion of the questions ... focused on the economy and the financial bailout plan being negotiated by Congress. This economic focus appears to have been positive for Obama; debate watchers ended up with more confidence in Obama's ability to deal with the economic problems facing the country, rather than less confidence as a result of the debate. By contrast, 37% of debate watchers said that the debate gave them less confidence in John McCain on economic matters rather than more.
Debate watchers saw little difference between the two candidates on national defense and foreign policy as a result of the debate; both Obama and McCain appeared to have come away with slightly improved images on foreign policy.
In all, 35% (a plurality) said they now have more confidence in Obama's ability to handle national defense and foreign policy, just slightly higher than the 34% who said the same about McCain. The problem, of course, was that McCain intended to use this debate to make Americans less confident in Obama on these issues, and encourage voters to see a huge difference between the two.
As Greg Sargent noted, "McCain was under enormous pressure to jar the electorate into seeing Obama as not merely unprepared, but risky and dangerous -- hence McCain's repeated use of that last word." The evidence now suggests this didn't happen. Indeed, while Obama was gaining ground on foreign policy credibility, McCain was losing ground on the economy.
It's an analogy I've been referencing for a while, but James Fallows noted the 1960, 1980, and 1992 races after the debate, arguing, "In each of those cases, a fresh, new candidate (although chronologically older in Reagan's case) had been gathering momentum at a time of general dissatisfaction with the 'four more years' option of sticking with the incumbent party. The question was whether the challenger could stand as an equal with the more experienced, tested, and familiar figure. In each of those cases, the challenger passed the test -- not necessarily by 'winning' the debate, either on logical points or in immediate audience or polling reactions, but by subtly reassuring doubters on the basic issue of whether he was a plausible occupant of the White House and commander in chief."
If the polls are accurate, it's a hurdle Obama cleared rather easily on Friday night.
—Steve Benen 11:19 AM
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It was a substantive debate. No flag pin-type questions. And Obama did more than hold his own.
Did you catch Sean Hannity's head exploding over the weekend at Dick Morris' suggestion Obama had won the debate? Good times.
Posted by: Jake on September 29, 2008 at 11:24 AM | PERMALINK
now, with the traditional approach of trying to pin your opponent as risky and not competent not sticking for McCain, and the gimmicks of suspending campaigns,etc. not working, it has to make you afraid of what they try next....
meanwhile with banks failing in Europe and the TED spread at 3.5% it seems even a $700 billion bailout is not enough... ouch
Posted by: leftymn on September 29, 2008 at 11:31 AM | PERMALINK
M Dowd was complaining in her column Sunday that Obama didn't go for the low-hanging fruit in the debate. He could of put away McCain a couple times with some good lines, but he resisted.
Smart move by Obama, he instead went for the high road, and I think that did him a lot of good. Dowd would of loved a snarky debate, but Obama was too smart to fall into that trap.
Posted by: g. powell on September 29, 2008 at 11:43 AM | PERMALINK
This just showcases why McCain's gimmick tactics for winning were such a mistake. This election was always about Obama versus Not Obama, and the only way Obama was going to lose was if people didn't trust him. And the only way that was going to happen was if he totally blew it and made some big mistakes. And the best way for McCain to make that happen was to run a tight campaign that stayed right on Obama's behind the whole time, pushing it into making a mistake.
But instead, McCain decided to try to jump ahead by making big plays that were risky, and now he's finding himself falling behind. And even if his moves weren't backfiring, he's never been applying the pressure that was needed to get Obama to make a big mistake, and instead keeps giving him breathing room by always making the news stories about McCain. And the negative attacks were a mistake too, as people generally like Obama and the attacks are too ridiculous to be believed. They're designed to satisify conservatives who already distrust Obama, not undecideds.
McCain needed to sit back and hope Obama would blow up. Instead, he pulled a Wile E. Coyote and is learning that dynamite is more dangerous than it looks. This election is Obama's to lose, and McCain isn't making that happen.
Posted by: Doctor Biobrain on September 29, 2008 at 11:54 AM | PERMALINK
Steve Benen, absolutely right that this was a major goal, and one surpassed by Obama at the debate. It may well double his lead nationally by the end of this week. But your post below on Palin is dangerous -- Democrats should not get self-assured or cocky. Obama himself sounds a little like he is crowing, and he should not be led off his game.
Kristol's column was also correct, unfortunately, in that casting Palin as the aggrieved or wronged social conservative who is now being "liberated" to speak her mind (largely upon "morals" issues) will indeed cause a surge back the other way -- and she may be able to deliver enough memorized boilerplate at the debate to secure it. This is still a very fluid election and a mistake will be very costly. No one should take anything for granted!
Posted by: Lee A. Arnold on September 29, 2008 at 11:58 AM | PERMALINK
There is a chance that part of Palin's "liberation" (which, if Kristol is talking about it, may already be in the playbook) will involve an exploitation of the "Palin is being disrespected by Obama campaign" gambit already unveiled in Alabama. This would be using the "sexism" card to veil the use of the "race" card.
Posted by: robert on September 29, 2008 at 12:17 PM | PERMALINK
Obama's performance in the debate reassured me. While I anticipated voting for him, I admit some reluctance.
But Thursday night will be a popcorn night. I do hope Biden can hold his tongue - he doesn't suffer fools gladly. Any thoughts, Steve, on how Biden should handle the situation?
Posted by: jen f on September 29, 2008 at 12:29 PM | PERMALINK
"Any thoughts, Steve, on how Biden should handle the situation?"
Well, I say he handle the situation the same way he handled the post debate commentary. Go after Mc
Cain, not Palin. She'll fail just fine on her own.
Posted by: Saint Zak on September 29, 2008 at 1:23 PM | PERMALINK
OK, he sounded good, smart and calm and not uppity at all, but he was just acting because he's really an undercover Muslim terrorist AND a communist, too.
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John McCain is the is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being America has ever known.
Posted by: The Manchurian Electorate on September 29, 2008 at 1:26 PM | PERMALINK
"It was a substantive debate. No flag pin-type questions."
Yes, because Jim Lehrer is a good moderator.
But DID you see that St. John wasn't wearing a flag pin? Why is NO ONE going ballistic on that?
Posted by: In what respect, Charlie? on September 29, 2008 at 1:28 PM | PERMALINK
Much ado was made about Obama saying, "You're right John", but Obama was very smart. He couldn't be "uppity" and he accomplished the goal of pointing out that he isn't that different from McCain, but on several powerful issues, he is better. He needed to be seen as not "the other" that is scary and he more than accomplished that. He neutralized McCain's ability to cudgel him, which is the "red meat" the "base" loves, and keep the debate above board and on his terms. McCain was seething the whole time and you could see it.
Posted by: Always Hopeful on September 29, 2008 at 2:11 PM | PERMALINK
Biden just needs to steer clear of debating Palin and keeping the focus on McCain. Palin will help with that because she is basically McCain's cheerleader with no currency of her own. That way it won't look sexist or condescending when he responds to her. She will do herself in without Biden's help.
Posted by: Always Hopeful on September 29, 2008 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK