Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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October 3, 2008

DEBATE POLLS.... Everyone who watched last night's debate came to their own conclusions about the candidates' performances, but there's that other question to consider: what did everyone else think?

Reiterating a point from last week, snap-polls aren't the most reliable measurements, but for those of us anxious for data, the surveys at least offer a guide to public opinion.

CBS News polled undecided voters, 46% of whom thought Biden won, while 33% thought it was a tie, and 21% thought Palin won. Palin got a boost on the question about whether she's "knowledgeable about important issues" -- after the debate, 66% of undecideds said she is -- but Biden did far better, with 98% seeing him as knowledgeable.

CNN conducted a quick national poll and found that 51% of debate viewers thought Biden did the best, while 36% thought Palin did the best. The CNN poll also found that 64% thought Biden did better than expected, while Palin exceeded very low expectations -- 84% said she did better than expected.

But expectations aside, Palin may not have done too much to help her own cause -- before the debate, 54% said she's not qualified to be the vice president. After the debate, 53% said she's still not qualified to be the vice president.

CNN also ran a viewer response line for uncommitted voters in Ohio, and Biden did very well with this group.

Frank Luntz's focus group seemed to think Palin did very well, but I have no idea which debate the focus group members were watching.

Steve Benen 6:33 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (31)
 
Comments

Watching the CNN ticker at the bottom of the TV screen was interesting. If these people were indicative, people hated over-used words and phrases, wanted out of Iraq, were far more interested in domestic issues, and had no idea what was true or not true. I thought it felt like a speed dating exercise.

Posted by: Danp on October 3, 2008 at 6:56 AM | PERMALINK

Also on the CNN trend lines, I was surprised to see that topic was more important than content. For example, people liked that Palin was talking about education at one point. What is shocking is that she said absolutely nothing remotely specific or coherent; she was simply mentioning the word "education" over and over again.

Posted by: BH on October 3, 2008 at 6:59 AM | PERMALINK

Luntz's get together had a definite game show aura about it...certainly projected a staged or scripted response... I just can not view anything that runs on Fox as being honest. But, I do think people generally see and hear what they want to, it is typical and that behavior does not change during debates, if anything it is reinforced. My take on Luntz's bunch was, "leaning" means never had a doubt in their minds about not voting for McCain /Palin. I think they should get a back brace for their 7 year old if indeed they continue to have her carry the baby around for what appears most of time, sad.

As far as the actual debate, it went as predicted, Biden mostly attacked McCain, and kept the Bush label on him. Palin, better schooled for this format (with no teleprompter...just some notes) was able to stay on subject in a superficial way, and get the key mantra Republican talking points in...also noticed she "winked" at least two times...nice touch.

Posted by: benmerc on October 3, 2008 at 7:08 AM | PERMALINK

I'd be interested to learn how strong the correlation is between the cumulative instantaneous reaction and the overall post-experience reaction. Or, to put it another way, are there also "warm burner" issues that last after the cheap lines wear out?

Posted by: matt on October 3, 2008 at 7:08 AM | PERMALINK

DEBATE THEORY

Who was that Republican VP candidate last night? Where was the bewildered, stumbling Sara Palin who was interviewed by Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric?

My theory is that the person who did those interviews was not the real Sarah Palin but actually was Tina Fey.

Whoever it was in the debate, she did well. She was direct, informed, assertive, and engaging. She spoke directly to the TV audience and clearly went a long way toward erasing the image of the clueless interviewee. Certainly, she did not have the command of facts as Joe Biden and often was not responding to the question asked, but she far exceeded expectations and recaptured much of her initial appeal.

For his part, Joe Biden was properly respectful and avoided gaffes, condescension, and interminable answers. He showed that he was obviously more qualified to serve as vice president, or even president. and to that extent "won" the debate. However, Sarah Palin survived to fight another day.

But do I miss the Alaskan valley girl? You betcha.

homer www.altara.blogspot.com

Posted by: altara on October 3, 2008 at 7:13 AM | PERMALINK

There was an interesting comment by a guest from the Cleveland Plain Dealer (Connie Schultz?) on Charlie Rose last night. She noted that Hon. Sen. McCain had not stopped his ads from running in OH during his fake campaign suspension. The lessen from this is that since he is necessarily on the air most in the states he considers most important, even though none of the interviewers and anchors challenge him when he makes this claim, those people he most wants to impress know for a fact that nothing much was suspended.

Posted by: jhm on October 3, 2008 at 7:27 AM | PERMALINK

Whoever it was in the debate, she did well. She was direct, informed, assertive, and engaging.

If you're going to judge the debate on substance, it was obvious that she had memorized platitudes and clichés; she looked like she was reading from cue cards imbedded in her brain, and just repeated talking points.

But I know these things are not judged on substance but on style. Am I the only one that thought Biden came across like a real person and Palin was a caricature of a regular American? The perkiness was unrelenting, and I know of nobody, from any social class and from any part of the country, who actually talks like that. Most ordinary people may be mostly confused as to who's right or wrong on complicated issues, but I suspect they can detect a phony as big as Palin.

Even W is better at faking ordinariness. Her shtick was very transparent, with the winking, and constant colloquialisms. In many ways her obvious inauthenticity may prove more devastating than her ignorance. The latter is more easily forgivable than the former.
____________________________________________


Posted by: Aris on October 3, 2008 at 7:30 AM | PERMALINK

Frank Luntz's focus group seemed to think Palin did very well, but I have no idea which debate the focus group members were watching.

The focus group members were Fred Luntz, Fannie Luntz, Fran Luntz, Bosphorus Luntz and Trig Palin.

Posted by: dr. bloor on October 3, 2008 at 7:34 AM | PERMALINK

Frank Luntz? That ignorant blot on western civilization. Why anyone would give that Repug talking point spewing any credability is beyond me. Oh right- he's on faux news and is fair and balanced. Lying with statistics taken to a whole new level. He deserves his own page on Snopes.

Posted by: John R on October 3, 2008 at 7:38 AM | PERMALINK

Sleeping on it didn't help. I woke up with the bad taste of Palin in my mouth. And I imagine she woke up with sore jowls from that endless fake smile.

She is an empty phony. Easy to smell out. Easier to dismiss out and out. As the debate settles in our collective consciousness this will be the taste left in the majority of mouths: All twinkle. No substance. Eye candy with no caloric value...

Posted by: koreyel on October 3, 2008 at 7:39 AM | PERMALINK

In these types of debates, the performers have well-rehearsed two-minute speeches filed away hoping for opportunities to use them. Biden came across as far more authentic because his "speeches" were extemporaneous and flowed from his experience and were more on target. Palin, not having the years of experience to draw from, sounded a bit forced, trying to get through her inventory of practiced sound-bite and talking-point laden "speeches" regardless of the actual questions. Those who tuned in hoping to see "Tina Fey" were probably disappointed, but it was clear who had greater command of knowledge and policy.

Posted by: tomb on October 3, 2008 at 7:41 AM | PERMALINK

Palin informed? She said the words but did not understand them. To other uninformed voters she sounded like she knew something.

If the format were different and the candidates actually debated each other then Biden would have mauled her (which is why McCain pushed for this format.)

Posted by: Former Dan on October 3, 2008 at 7:42 AM | PERMALINK

Luntz's focus group on the 1st Presidential debate went to Obama. I'm sure that did not make his sponsors happy.

Posted by: John Lee on October 3, 2008 at 7:54 AM | PERMALINK

Previous commenter noted that she appeared to be reading from cue cards embedded in her brain. I got the impression that she had real cue cards in front of her. She really did seem to be reading some responses directly from her previously prepared notes.

Posted by: lou on October 3, 2008 at 7:55 AM | PERMALINK

Ok, just watched the Luntz focus group. OMG! Where do they find these people?!?! 'The Couric interviews were highly edited'. Give me a break!

Posted by: John Henry on October 3, 2008 at 7:59 AM | PERMALINK

"Who was that Republican VP candidate last night? Where was the bewildered, stumbling Sara Palin who was interviewed by Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric?"

It was the same person. Last night she merely recited rehearsed,memorized talking points. She still sounded vapid and empty-headed. I had the impression she hadn't a clue as to what she was spouting. Its clear to see why the McCain campaign demanded no follow up questions. It would have provided endless "Katie Couric moments." The folksy attitude was so over done that it boardered on farce. She really is a living breathing Trivia Pursuit answer in the making.

I think JOe Biden went a long way in reassuring voters that we'd be in good hands with an Obama/Biden adminstration. Palin's performance was just another weird act in the McCain circus. Joe Biden treated the importnat issues we're facing in an informed, mature manner. He treated our situation with the seriousness it deserved. Palin's flippant, winking, contrived behavior was innappropriate and, frankly, insulting.

Posted by: Saint Zak on October 3, 2008 at 8:05 AM | PERMALINK

Having slept on it, I realize that with Palin's performance, the McCain campaign tried to deliver the same message with a different messenger.

Obviously the message failed to resonate in the first debate -- not the least because many of their talking points are lies, and now known to be such. The McCain campaign is either gambling that Palin's personality will sell the lies better, or that their working of the refs will allow them to escape scrutiny.

Still, the fact remains that however nicely focus grouped it may be, the McCain campaign's message is failing to resonate with the majority of American voters, especially when compared to the strong message and presentation of the Democrats.

Posted by: Gregory on October 3, 2008 at 8:20 AM | PERMALINK

With all of the low expectations brought into this debate it is no wonder that 66% of people thought she is knowledgeable about important issues.

Memorizing talking points is useless because it only means you can regurgitate them at specific moments. Palin seemed to grasp things which most of her critics still cannot believe she grasped.

Biden was the typical "smartest guy in the room" attitude which he gives off all the time. His clean coal defense "that was taken out of context," was weak. He looked tired.

And the crying? Please Joe get a grip.

Posted by: Eric Blair on October 3, 2008 at 8:25 AM | PERMALINK

Am I the only one that thought Biden came across like a real person and Palin was a caricature of a regular American?

No.

Posted by: Gregory on October 3, 2008 at 8:33 AM | PERMALINK

"Eric Blair" wrote: Memorizing talking points is useless because it only means you can regurgitate them at specific moments.

As Palin proved last night, jackass.

Palin must have bombed if even trolls like "Eric Blair" -- who sullies a good man's name with every post -- is phoning it in like this.

See you in November, creep.

Posted by: Gregory on October 3, 2008 at 8:35 AM | PERMALINK

The one media source we can actually trust said Sarah Palin won by a landslide. Go Faux News!

Posted by: e, nonee moose on October 3, 2008 at 8:41 AM | PERMALINK

Does Frank Luntz really deserve your snarky tag line? Why yes he does!

Here's to Frank and his push polling! -Kevo

Posted by: kevo on October 3, 2008 at 9:01 AM | PERMALINK

Palin did better than expected.. that being said, Biden won the debate and made it look easy.. He was intelligent, gracious, strong and direct. I think getting emotional showed his sincereity. She was cutesy, winking, smiling, admitted that she wasnt going to anwser questions but talk to Americans, this wasnt your speech time honey, it was a debate..you were there to anwser questions. His knowledge and flow of words proved his experience DOES matter. I think he could of done some real damage but held back and allowed her to show her true self, cute but under NO circumstances ready to lead!

Posted by: carina on October 3, 2008 at 9:19 AM | PERMALINK

"The day after" I'd say Joe resonates much better than Palin. The most memorable moment, I thought, was his getting choked-up when talking about his raising his kids. That seemed very real. I also remember the "Dick Cheney is the most dangerous VP America has ever had" line, along with several other authoritative lines. By contrast, I don't remember much of what Palin babbled about. Just her clearly rehearsed "say it ain't so, Joe" and "raising the white flag of defeat" lines. In general, I don't think she said much of anything of any substance last night.

Posted by: Jim on October 3, 2008 at 10:04 AM | PERMALINK

Aris wrote: "Am I the only one that thought Biden came across like a real person and Palin was a caricature of a regular American?"

Biden came across like a real person -- in particular Biden conveyed the sense that to him, being a US Senator, or Vice President if he is elected, is a regular job of real work, just like the regular jobs of real work that other real people do every day in real life. He very strongly conveyed that he sees himself as a public servant who works for the people.

Palin came across as a animatronic robot constructed to imitate Tina Fey doing a parody of Sarah Palin, programmed to babble bumper-sticker buzzword bullshit and spew scripted, sleazy lies.

But Palin clearly was effective in reaching out to weak-minded, ignorant, dishonest idiots like our commenter Eric Blair. And after all, Palin's role in the campaign is to secure the votes of the dittohead mental slaves of Rush Limbaugh, which is the only voting block that the Palin-McCain campaign has left. In that, she was probably successful.

Posted by: SecularAnimist on October 3, 2008 at 10:26 AM | PERMALINK

SA:"And after all, Palin's role in the campaign is to secure the votes of the dittohead mental slaves of Rush Limbaugh, which is the only voting block that the Palin-McCain campaign has left. In that, she was probably successful.

This is why I have been saying since April that McCain was heading for a landslide defeat. He always had the (at least theoretical) choice of running a responsible, centrist, true 'maverick,' anti-Bush campaign (which included admitting he'd been wrong in the areas he'd supported Bush), going for the Independents, and abandoning the enthusiasm that the Limbaugh and Dobson parts of the base would bring -- and losing because of that lack of enthusiasm. Or he could 'go for the base' and hope the Independents would come his way -- which they wouldn't have, which meant losing that way.

He would have lost either way, but there was a chance he might have 'lost with honor' and that it might have been close if Obama had made some mistakes of his own. (It was because I had faith that Obama wouldn't make those mistakes that I predicted the landslide.)

Instead, he has been trying to 'have both' has been all over the place on everything, and picked an obviously unqualified VP. (Who has the Branchflower Report ticking away to hurt her worse than the Couric interview.)

Again, he had no real chance. Like Palin, he had no real 'upside.' He doesn't 'wear well.' (Even the racial factor wasn't likely to work in his factor. Yes, there are a lot of people who won't vote for Obama because he's black -- but most of them were already Republicans. The only part of that group that matters are the ones who would have voted for a white Democrat. And the fact is that in most states they will be outnumbered by the blacks who wouldn't have gone to the polls to vote for a white Democrat, but would for Obama -- not to mention a fairly sizable group of whites who would go to the polls for the same reason, or to vote against any overt racism that a desperate McCain campaign tries.)

I'm still predicting that Obama will get at least 400 EVs, and that's always been a conservative figure in my mind.

(And, btw, those who are scared of the 'mystical masters of the Diebold machine' still have to explain why, in a number of very close House and Senate races in 2006 they didn't flip enough votes to leave Republicans in charge -- or, even more importantly, didn't 'cast their magic spell' in Gubernatorial races, since a Democratic Governor could block their attempts or short-circuit them in this race.)

Posted by: Prup (aka Jim Benton) on October 3, 2008 at 10:54 AM | PERMALINK

Palin's role in the campaign is to secure the votes of the dittohead mental slaves of Rush Limbaugh, which is the only voting block that the Palin-McCain campaign has left. In that, she was probably successful.

Sure, but so what? The best thing about this election is that those jackasses are about to find out what a cranky minority they really are.

Posted by: Gregory on October 3, 2008 at 10:56 AM | PERMALINK

Palin not only was honest last night about her views and opinions but she sure did a good job of "calling" Biden out. What amazes me the most is Biden has been doing this "political" thing for 35 years and last night he made ten factual errors! Come on Biden do you not know your facts and to top it off he did not and could not deny that he would have been happy to run as McCain's vp. I guess he did tell one truth last night "I love McCain". Good job Palin :-)

Posted by: kris on October 3, 2008 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK

Palin not only was honest last night about her views and opinions

To whatever extent that's true, it was overwhelmed by how dishonest she was in expressing McCain's views and opinions -- and Obama's, for that matter.

Better trolls, please.

Posted by: Gregory on October 3, 2008 at 11:15 AM | PERMALINK

Palin not only was honest last night about her views and opinions but she sure did a good job of "calling" Biden out.

Honest about your opinions? What does that even mean? Look, debate tactics often call for the liberal deployment of "truthiness", such saying your opponent voted "fifty times" to do such and such, when forty eight of those times were for a cloture motion or some amendment. That comes with the territory. Palin, on the other hand, just flat out made s**t up, like saying General "McClellan" in Afghanistan favors a surge. Biden, to be sure, had his "truthy" moments, but what matters in the end is where the candidates positioned themselves on the big issues and what governing philosophy can best address them. That's why the polls last night gave Biden a clear win, particularly among independents.

Posted by: jonas on October 3, 2008 at 11:47 AM | PERMALINK

Watching Sarah Palin is down right embarrassing and she has pushed women back 50 years with her flirting, touchy feely, winking style that belongs in some other areana other than that of Vice President which in any time is a serious matter but even more so now in these troubled times. She can memorize a "part" and was probably good in her High School Plays in her small high school setting but she is extremely uninformed on government issues and important issue facing this country and it literally scares me to death to think she could actually be a heart beat away from the Presidency. God help us all! I wasn't sure who I would vote for until after the debate last night and the comparison between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin is miles apart. Joe really showed her up and she should just go back to Alaska and do her "thing" back there but not for the rest of America. Very sad.

Posted by: Vel Wormuth on October 4, 2008 at 1:23 AM | PERMALINK




 

 
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