McCain's still sure he can win on his "My friends, look at me. I'm not a n****r." platform. Hopefully, he's wrong.

The Bradley effect no longer exists.

Racists no longer feel the need to lie to pollsters.

Has Jonah Goldberg ever said anything that isn't stupidly, stupidly wrong? Why does anyone outside of NRO quote him any more? Whether he's confidently opining on the gender of city names in Latin; or assuring us he's just too busy (and, by implication, important) to enlist for military service; or equating liberalism with fascism--nothing ever emerges from his mouth or his pen but verbal excrement. Nothing. Nothing at all. Ever.

On Chris Matthews, Chris openly challenged the Republican "consultant" who claimed Obama said McCain was "unhinged". Kept asking him to cite his sources.

On Joe Klein:

"Embarracuda"? Ha!

I've been mighty frustrated with Joe Klein a good lot of the last 8 or so years. Over the past three months, he's been like someone who just woke up and realized his house is on fire.

Please don't fall into the BS "balance" trap of saying Religulous is a "screed against God." It has nothing to do with God. Maher is not an atheist. It is about religion.

And Joe Klein has done too much to be redeemed.

The market recovered at days end. Any idea who was buying? Is that the public money buying stock to keep the market afloat? Sure appears so.
-0-

The fundamentals of the economy are strong. Bush assured the diners in San Antonio today. We are so screwed.

Thanks for the post. I can't wait to delve into it. I feel energized about a Democratic win.

Sarah Palin is a scary person with no soul. Plus she had an exorcism at her church. Saw it on video. Her robotlike persona came through in the debate. And it is almost halloween.
I am ashamed she associates herself with me.

From James Fallows:

"...it is beneath the dignity he had as a Naval officer to wallow in this mindless BS. I will say nothing about the dignity of a candidate who repeatedly winks at the public, Hooters-waitress style."

I think these charges by Republicans that Obama is unpatriotic are a result of this military mindset that you always need to know your place. If you're critical about anyone above you in the chain of command you're called out of line. This is considered unpatriotic and even dangerous to a platoon.

Military types have a hard time adjusting to civilian life. The military isn't democratic and soldiers or veterans aren't comfortable standing out from the crowd in any way. By extension they don't want anyone else to stand out.

These guys need civics lessons. They need to understand that in civilian life strength depends on debate, criticism, dialogue. No one is going to punish them for speaking out, in fact we reward it.

They need to understand the rules of society are different out of uniform and that when they try to shut Democrats up they are behaving against the very principles of the democracy they served.

Racists no longer feel the need to lie to pollsters.

The problem, IMO, isn't the outright "I'd never vote for a n****r" racists. There are a lot of people who think quite sincerely that they aren't racists, but will at the last minute latch onto other things, e.g. the "lack of experience" or the "association with terrorists," or a number of other notions that they know rationally are BS but will give them a gut feeling that Obama is somehow "wrong," or "different." I've seen this in people whom I know for certain are not overtly racist.

Will this be enough to change the outcome of the election? I hope not. But ignore the possible effects at your, no, at our, peril. It's not enough to laugh at the idiocies. They must be debunked thoroughly, and often, and as gently as possible so as to not make people feel stupid.

Will this be enough to change the outcome of the election? -thersites

I think you've wandered into the realm of statistical insignificance.

If anything, the polls are under-representing minorities and youth voters by basing their weighting to heavily on 2004 and 2006 numbers.

If the turnout in those increasingly large groups is solid, then you can tack on an extra +2 or +3 in Obama's favor.

And I'm not ignoring anything.

I've seen this in people whom I know for certain are not overtly racist.

The Bradley effect is about people lying to pollsters. I agree the people you mention exist, but they aren't telling pollsters they're for Obama. They're either for McCain or undecided. And frankly, I think they're a minority of the undecideds.

I expect the remainder of the undecideds to break mostly in the next two weeks at least 60/40 in Obama's favor, barring any game changing event.

On the other hand, I believe there are people who say they support McCain, but when the time comes will pull the level for Obama. Call is the Reverse-Bradley effect. I also think this group is statistically significant, +1 or +2.

All things being equal between now and election day, I think Obama will win over 350 EVs and +8 to +10 nationally.

doubtful: And I'm not ignoring anything.
Fine. I wasn't accusing you specifically, just speaking to a tendency toward overconfidence I've noticed here and there.
I think you've wandered into the realm of statistical insignificance.
Hopefully. I am a professional pessimist at heart.

If you can vote early, do so and encourage your friends to do the same.

Did anyone catch the red and white uniforms of the fascist Palin Brigade today?

I thought it looked like a very snappy sort of sports rally, but then when she opened her mouth--whoa!

(They orchestrated a bunch of folks to wear these colors as she chanted out her mean barbs--'directly to the American People' mind you. NOT to that evil Communist Liberal Elite Evil Media.

Heather Wilson is a grade A moron if she *doesn't* think Bush's foreign policy has been harmful to this country. But this line of reasoning - that a citizen of the United States is unpatriotic if they don't goosestep behind W - is not new. Bush has been saying the same thing for years.

mccain is on fire.

and not in a good way.

mccain is going down in flames.

have you all seen sarah palin's 1996 mayoral campaign materials?

on the right side of the article under "related content," there are four “pages� of “sarah palin’s campaign pamphlet� (they look to be three stand-alone campaign handouts and one mailer, all with interesting and sometimes hilarious content) and a link to palin’s page of “doodling� as she fantasized about being mayor during a city council budget meeting.

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=8c130fe3-adab-4cb3-8443-c363f085cf13&p=4

among those interesting and hilarious tidbits are this quotation from palin's 1996 mayoral race:

“Hard-hitting facts and figures are
the backbone of my campaign . . .
I felt it important to stay away from
personal issues.� — Sarah Palin

Really interesting article if you google John McCain G Gordon Liddy, about who pals around with terrorists.

PJ,

How do you explain Rush and all the other RW radio/TV mouths who have never served? I think it is just the authoritarian mindset (often found in the military) where no one should question those in authority.

Personally, I find it as offensive as the situation where an abusive family member forbids all in the house to talk outside the family about the abuse that is going on (i.e. "airing the dirty linen"). That is grounds for excommunication (just like the charges of unpatriotic).

About Bin Laden,

Fresh Air had an ex-cia guy who was an Iran expert on the other day. He said Bin Laden is definitely dead. They have totally lost any trace of him and the last video was definitely not Bin Laden according to the cia guy.

Palin attracting smaller crowds: It is cognitive dissonance. Many cannot reconcile the frightened, word-impoverished woman speaking and not speaking with Katie Couric or Charles Gibson with the aging, exhausting talking points-riddled head cheerleader instructor at the debate.
Those persons I know still "on the fence" see her as a phony. And that seems to have especially rung true when she ignored Joe Biden's tender reminiscence of his trauma, going straight to her memorized Maverick talking points in her subsequent statements.
Heartless.
It is Stephanie Miller, radio personality wonder woman, who calls McCain "Cadaverick."
I laugh. Sarah too is the butt of jokes. She is repulsive,and all that winking turned the guys off that I know.
We live in interesting times?

One response: McCain is not campaigning on weekends for the same reason he "suspended" his part of his campaign immediately after the first debate with Obama: he needs his rest.

And whole new thought: I wonder how many offers Palin and First Dude are entertaining so far for their/her book on this amazin' you betcha moment? If they lose, it'll be her usual stab in the mentor back inside look at a sleazy campaign that she, poor innocent, had no control over but, by the way, she's happy to lead the ticket in '12; if they win, God forbid, it''ll be pretty much the same, but the lay the groundwork for declaring him non compos and taking over. Betcha.

Always,

There's always the odd few that don't quite fit into a generalization and in this case that would be the Limbaughs and Cheneys of the world -- the natural authoritarians who never served.

Their world views fit very well within the military mindset. Maybe they have adopted this way of thinking precisely because they didn't serve and feel a need to establish conservative credentials for the audience they have chosen to appeal to. But Cheney really takes authoritarianism to an extreme.

My neighbor, a former Marine, told me over a backyard barbecue recently that when he left the Corps for the civilian sector he had a hard time adjusting. He said one of the hardest adjustments was controlling his urge to kill people. His buddy agreed. Killing people apparently made a big impression on them during his tour of duty. So he joined the Border Patrol to hunt down Mexicans. He found that fulfulling -- carrying a gun and tracking people down through the cane fields. Don't know that he killed anyone -- he actually seemed like a decent guy. Said he captured the same people over and over again.

But he also said he had trouble adjusting to civilian life because in the Marines everyone knew their place. People seemed was so disrespectful in the civilian sector, he said. Very revealing.

Needless to say he thinks Sarah Palin is "Hot!" Hoowa.

One response: McCain is not campaigning on weekends for the same reason he "suspended" his part of his campaign immediately after the first debate with Obama: he needs his rest.

And whole new thought: I wonder how many offers Palin and First Dude are entertaining so far for their/her book on this amazin' you betcha moment? If they lose, it'll be her usual stab in the mentor back inside look at a sleazy campaign that she, poor innocent, had no control over but, by the way, she's happy to lead the ticket in '12; if they win, God forbid, it''ll be pretty much the same, but the lay the groundwork for declaring him non compos and taking over. Betcha.

It just occurred to me that McCain is running his campaign just like Al Davis runs the Oakland Raiders. Old, angry and confused, Al and John are embittered and outraged that world has passed them by. What's worse, everyone sees them for the losers they've become.

* The FEC has some questions about "excessive" campaign contributions the McCain team has accepted. -- Steve Benen

I wondered what this article in NYT was all about, when I read it last night. I thought it might be a preemptive strike, but, now, it looks like retaliation:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/us/politics/06donate.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin

Heather Wilson is a grade A moron if she *doesn't* think Bush's foreign policy has been harmful to this country. - Limbaugh's Diabetes

It is somewhat ironic, though, since Wilson was one of the first Republicans to criticize Bush on the Iraq war. U-u-u-ugh! Sorry. I promise that will be the last time I write anything that may be construed as a compliment to her.

I am a professional pessimist at heart. -thersites

Me too, hence the handle. :)

And I didn't mean to sound harsh and defensive when I said I wasn't ignoring anything. I've spent the last two weeks immersing myself in polling data and analysis. (Note that I'm not personally doing the analysis. I leave that to smarter people with more time.)

But my conclusion is that the only factors that aren't adequately being compensated for in most polling are pro-Obama factors.

As pessimistic as I tend to be, I think that the math says this is Obama's to lose and it will take a major screw-up at that.

I just don't see it happening.

From Taegan Goddard, Key finding [regarding a new poll results that show Obama well ahead of McCain in Virginia, 51 to 39%]: "The poll shows last Thursday's vice presidential debate was a net plus for the Democratic ticket. Exactly three-quarters (75%) of likely voters watched and scored Joe Biden (46%) the clear winner over Sarah Palin (26%), while 20% said neither won the debate. When asked if the debate affected their presidential selection, 32% said it made them more likely to vote Obama, while 18% said the debate moved them to McCain, and 47% said the debate didn't affect their decision."

It's not like all the media commentariat that called the debate a draw or even a win for Palin were trying to sell the story of a continuing close horse race, nosiree Bob, they wouldn't do that. (/snark)

I fear for the 18% that were inspired by Palin's debate to vote for McCain.

I think/hope that the Bradley effect won't happen - people who don't want to vote for a half-black guy already have access to plenty of other talking-point excuses. I expect that the Bradley effect is showing up in the afore-mentioned 18%, the die-hard if-not-Hillary,-then-McCain crowd, and the 15-25% of the electorate that is keeping Obama from running at the 65-75% level that one might expect given the level of incompetence shown by the Republicans over the last few years.

Lastly, it's worth mentioning, from almost four years ago, when this was Kevin's blog, that Kevin deserves major praise for predicting right after Bush's re-election that his second term would become enmeshed in scandals.

i was wandering around the innertubes and stumbled onto an essay about the end of american hegemony [and economic dominance.]

it just had its tenth anniversery the other day... check this thing out... [link at the end]...

"The assessment of U.S. strength as a state requires a distinction between strength as an ordinal measure and hegemony as a concept. Today, the U.S. remains the strongest state in the world, even if the gap between it and others is declining. But it is no longer hegemonic as it was in the period 1945-1970.

To be hegemonic means to have a really significant economic lead over others. It means therefore to get one's way politically virtually all of the time, with relatively few significant compromises. It means NOT to have to use military force, except in a minor way, because the mere threat of using it, even merely an implied threat, suffices to make the target back down, and therefore it becomes unnecessary to use the force.

This was the situation once, in the period from 1945 to circa 1970. It is no longer the case.

Today, the U.S. realizes that developments in the world-economy are flying beyond its ability to manage them.

It has no clear political objectives in the world arena that are widely legitimated by others.

Its allies are beginning to implement their autonomous strategies and tactics.

And above all, the U.S. is a hamstrung military power because it cannot easily wage any war that will be protracted and costly.

Furthermore, there is nothing on the horizon that is likely to improve this prospect for the U.S. in any of these regards. Quite the contrary.

And, indeed, one could argue that the unhappiness and frustration of the U.S. public with the decline of U.S. power explains much of U.S. internal politics today. How much control can it be said to have over the world's trajectory in the next 10-25 years?

I would say, not very much."

Immanuel Wallerstein Commentary No. 1, Oct. 1, 1998

http://www.binghamton.edu/fbc/01en.htm

You folks might find these useful or engaging:

http://www.palinspin.com - the dirt, scandals, incompetence, palinisms, lies and deceptions of Sarah Palin!
http://www.obamamate.com - social news for the Barack Obama nation.

How did McCain get away a month ago with claiming the negative tone was all Obama's fault--because Obama refused to do a Town Hall Debate?

It was such a ridiculous two year old "He wouldn't give me what I wanted, so I showed him" response (NOTE: He did NOT deny that he turned the tone of the campaign negative)...but it's also clearly untrue, as tomorrow they will indeed be doing Town Hall. And Obama also allowed for that fast paced format at McCain's insistence. And they intimidated Ifill with her book, and now I hear McCain actually went to Brokaw and asked for reassurance--to insure that he wouldn't be biased for the debate? Say what?!

Brokaw better keep the questions and the debate fair...doesn't he get final say on which questions are forwarded?

Some Alaska blogs, this one from open.salon.com

"UPDATE: The numbers are going every which way, but it looks like the Pro-Palin rally attended by Palin was beat out in numbers by the Palin protest (by nearly 2-1). If the numbers seem small to those of you in the Lower 48, just remember, going by the numbers we have up here (very small) - the rally was the equivalent of 50,000 people showing up in LA.
Some other great Alaskan blogs that covered the rally (and are continuing coverage of our governor.) Some even have video.
Mudflats
Progressive Alaska
Own the Sidewalk
Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis
Meet Sarah!
Also, the Anchorage Daily News commentary about her lately. By and large, our state's biggest newspaper has a lot of editorials reacting to the national media attention, going, "Who on earth are they talking about?"

Lastly, it's worth mentioning, from almost four years ago, when this was Kevin's blog, that Kevin deserves major praise for predicting right after Bush's re-election that his second term would become enmeshed in scandals.

Um, everyone, including my dry cleaner, the blind and deaf guy down the street, and my dog, "predicted" this. It wasn't exactly going out on a limb.

While talking about pro-Obama factors not showing up in polls, one also needs to consider that all polls are done using only landlines. The vast majority of young people I know(in the 18-26 range) like me, only have a cell phone. Granted, I'm in California, which is going to go blue anyway, but i'm sure this is consistent throughout the nation.

Q: When is a proven, stinking, lie, not a lie but a piece of sweet, aromatic, fudge?
A: When it's "fact-checked" and judged by the WashPo:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker/2008/10/mccain_fudges_his_navy_record.html

You can take this to the bank, those people are now saying they will cooperate in Troopergate are doing so to keep the report from coming out on Friday. When they go to release the report they will scream and maybe sue on the basis that the investigation hasn't finished. Of course they will drag their feet on scheduling their testimony.

Yipee: Olbermann will do a special comment on Palin tonight!

I say to all, the polls look pretty good, and the voter registration is fantastic--

but DO NOT underestimate the amount of racism that is out there--coupled with media that is lazy/biased/too afraid to tell the truth.

Paul, I have been saying the same thing for a couple of years. I happened to be teaching a stats course at a community college two years ago and one morning before class got underway, we were talking about political polling and I used the class to demonstrate how the polls were suspect for that very reason and used the class to prove my point. Excluding the nontraditional students from our sample, in two sections of the class, we had three landlines, and two of them were for dial-up internet access only and never used for phone calls. The girl who lived above her parents garage and still had the same phone number her parents had for the kids when they were in school was the only one of the nontraditional students who had ever been polled.

This, about vote-suppression tricks of Republicans, is scary. It will be rampant (despite some misguided people thinking, they only do it when the election is close enough to steal without being blatant) and has to be fought tooth and nail, almost (or even) literally:
http://www.chelseagreen.com/content/index.php?p=1438

Did you guys and gals know, Cindy McCain had dealings with Keating also? Just google cindy mcain keating, you won't be disappointed.

Here's some interesting numbers from fivethirtyeight regarding the Georgia vote.

Keith Olbermann, you kick total ass! LMAO!!

Sing a song full of the faith that the dark past has taught us!
Sing a song full of the hope that the present has brought us!
Facing the rising sun of our new day begun!
Let us march on till victory is won!

"Come on up, I've got a lifeline...come on up to this train of mine!" (Harriet Tubman)

People have been predicting that cell phones would invalidate traditional polling for years, including in 2004, when it failed to happen. As I understand it, the major polling outfits are well aware of the phenomenon, and do their best to compensate.

Anyway, I for one will believe in cell phone bias when it shows up in actual results.

It is Stephanie Miller, radio personality wonder woman, who calls McCain "Cadaverick."

Come 2052, I fully expect one of Palin's kids to host a progressive talk show of their own...providing they've been deprogrammed by then.

And Joe Klein has done too much to be redeemed.

No doubt. & if Mc Cain somehow pulls this out, 5th November, JK will be swinging off those walnuts.

Joe Klein is only "backing" Obie, for now, since Obie triumphed over JK's bete noire, the Clintons. But if the vanquisher is vanquished, eff 'im. It'll be back to a bdsm master-slave relationship with the GOP, Johnny Walnuts!, specifically.

What does it mean to be a high profile woman in 2008 who declares she is a feminist and then to go on to proudly assert:

"The gloves are off and the heels are staying on"?

Is this the new role model of feminism? Is this what we want our kids to aspire to?

Okay to be angry and vicious and slanderous and libelous so long as the heels (and lipstick) stay on?

Be angry and underhanded as you care to, but don't forget to look pretty (er, or stupid- according to most podiatrists and back specialists) while you do it?

It's really disturbing to me that this kind of twisted statement is supposed to be appealing.

Knock Out: CNBC Confirms Lehman CEO Punched at Gym

LOL!

"Military types have a hard time adjusting to civilian life. The military isn't democratic and soldiers or veterans aren't comfortable standing out from the crowd in any way. By extension they don't want anyone else to stand out.

"These guys need civics lessons. They need to understand that in civilian life strength depends on debate, criticism, dialogue. No one is going to punish them for speaking out, in fact we reward it."

I find your characterization of veterans deeply insulting. I'm a liberal. I'm civil. I'm a veteran.

It's too bad that Obama does not seem to have any surrogates to defend him from Palin's attacks. I know that Biden's mother in law just passed away; but is'nt there anyone else out there who can defend Obama?

The Washington Post reports that a man at Palin's speech in Florida yells "Kill him!" in reference to Obama.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/10/06/in_fla_palin_goes_for_the_roug.html

This is just sad. Sarah did nothing to condemn the sentiment. It makes me profoundly sick.

Gawdawful thought of the evening: If your only choice was between Bush and McCain, which one would you vote for?

I'd vote for whichever one gave back the 700 billion.

I'm really curious to see if McCain's "pal" Tom Brokaw will ask McCain about the nastiness at his campaign rallies [audience members shouting "traitor" in response to McCain's "who is Obama," and also yelling "kill him."]

One would think this would turn off even Brokaw, but I doubt it.

SOUTH AMERICAN MONKEY TRAP

John McCain will make us monkey meat.

What do I mean? Maybe you've heard this one. But:

Tribes in South American catch monkeys this way. They cut a hole in a coconut big enough for a monkey's hand to fit in empty, but too small for a monkey fist to come out of.

They stake it to the ground, and fill it with food.

The monkey sniffs it out, puts in his hand, grabs the food, but can't pull his hand out. He tugs and gets mad, but he won't give up on the food.

The warriors move in with their clubs and knives. The monkey is frantic. But he won't let go of the food to escape. He's trapped by his own lack of imagination. Good eats!

That's America today. If we can't size up what's happening fast enough, if we can't quickly change our priorities in light of new information, if we can't let go of the handful of meal, we are someone else's breakfast.

John McCain is going to hang on to that handful of meal come what may, because that's the only thing he knows. He can't imagine letting go of that measly handful of food even though his ass is on the line. He's running on bringing that handful of meal home, no matter what.

Obama sees the villagers closing in. He knows the fistful of food isn't worth his life. That he can have more and better food later, or he can be someone else's food now.

McCain: fistful of food more important. Obama: villagers closing in more important.

That simple.

Palin backers getting publicly racist and ugly. She’s getting OC and Schmuck Talk doesn’t know how to ramp her down, even if he wants to.

yougottabekiddingme,

I respect your service to our country and thank you for it. But I would never, Never! dare to call someone unpatriotic unless they appeared to violate the spirit and principles of our Constitution. It is these people to whom my anger and frustration is directed.

For eight long years under George Bush I have been made to feel like an outsider in my own country. I have endured personal insults from members of my own family who, taking their cue from our Commander In Chief and his surrogates, have repeatedly called people like me unpatriotic -- Unpatriotic! -- for daring to voice a contrary opinion about the war or any other topic of national importance. They firmly believe that by cloaking themselves in patriotism this gives them the right to tell me to shut up. I have been told this, repeatedly, and I'm not even that outspoken. Talk about insulting.

People like George Bush and Dick Cheney cloak themselves in the mantle of our military because they think it insulates them from criticism of their policies. This arrogance is felt even in my neighborhood where, at a recent backyard barbecue, I was told "civilians don't know their place" by a veteran who says he misses killing people. I have to tell you I meet many more veterans like that than I meet veterans like you.

I look forward to the day when people who choose civilian service like teaching, job corps, community organizing, peace corps, health care, coaching, counseling . . . are treated with the same respect as military veterans. Imagine where we would be as a country if these people got the same college tuition and mortgage subsidies as people who serve in the military services.

I will sharpen my message to account for the fact that veterans like you do not have the same authoritarian views as people like George Bush, Dick Cheney (a pseudo-veteran) or my neighbor. I hope you will use your status as a veteran to impress upon your fellow vets and neighbors the honorable and patriotic services performed by so many of their fellow citizens who do, indeed, understand their place in our democracy.

The big question Palin's tax return raises is how she managed to accumulate an estate of that size on the public dollar. Alaska's an expensive place to live and the Palins have a lot of kids. For most of her working life she's been drawing a city or state government paycheck.

Please do - I normally enjoy your comments here, but i, too, was deeply offended by the broad mischaracterization of me, my husband and all of our family members in that comment upthread. I started to respond a couple of times and came off pretty nasty and vitriolic, so I didn't hit "post" lest I bolster your horribly inaccurate stereotype.

p.s I have a feeling that your neighbor would be a psychopath no matter his backstory. That he was in the military is coincidental to that fact.

Blue Girl,

It has been very difficult for me these last eight years to repeatedly say how much I love a country that members of my own family as well as many of my associates, including many politicians and veterans, tell me I don't belong to.

Just as vets ask for our respect I hope they appreciate the strength of character of people who confront the effects of authoritarianism in thousands of little ways -- the teacher who stands up to spiteful parents threatening a lawsuit and loss of job over their daughter's D; the researcher whose groundbreaking economic study gets deep sixed in the agency file cabinet because it does not conform to administration policy . . . I could go on and on.

But I think you get this. And I'll try better, too.

Here's a website that everyone can check their voting registration status.

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2974411