Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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October 8, 2008

'THAT ONE' WON.... Just to add my two cents to Hilzoy's sharp analysis from last night, I thought I'd add how much last night's debate broke with expectations.

After the first debate, John McCain took quite a bit of heat for neglecting to use the words "middle class," so I expected him to correct the oversight. He didn't. After the last several days of guilt-by-association attacks, I expected McCain to talk about Bill Ayers and ask who the "real" Barack Obama is. He didn't do that, either. After many noticed that McCain treated Obama with contempt in their first meeting, I expected McCain to be far more gracious and respectful last night. Instead, he called his Democratic rival "that one."

And after McCain's legendary love for town-hall debates, I expected McCain to thrive rather easily in his habitat of choice. Instead, he seemed clumsy and unsure of himself.

I've long seen Obama as a capable but underwhelming debater. Even during the primaries, Clinton and Edwards seemed more comfortable and relaxed in a debate, while Obama struck me as more professorial and detail oriented. Last night, however, the professor schtick worked beautifully -- the hall was his classroom and Obama was in complete control. It was arguably his best debate performance to date.

In the broader political context, of course, McCain needed a big night in the worst way. The polls have been very discouraging for the Republican, and there's a growing sense the campaign may be slowly slipping away. This was a genuine opportunity -- in McCain's favorite setting -- to turn things around. If anything, McCain lost ground with meandering answers and a prickly demeanor. Pressed to fundamentally alter the dynamic of this race, McCain, once again, came up short.

The more Obama seized control, the more one observation seemed clear: McCain is used to town-hall meetings in which no one challenges him. They're fun and easy, just so long he has a stage all to himself. Worse, given the warnings about personal attacks, McCain seemed to shrink from the moment, seemingly too embarrassed by his own nonsense to make the bogus charges to Obama directly.

As John Judis put it, "What the debate proved, I think, is that Obama is becoming more comfortable with the idea of himself as president of the United States, while McCain is becoming ever more crotchety at the prospect of defeat."

The first debate focused primarily on foreign policy and national security, and was supposed to be the event in which McCain got back on track. The second debate was a town-hall-style gathering, and it was supposed to be the event in which McCain got back on track.

With time running out, it's not at all clear McCain even knows where the track is anymore.

Steve Benen 7:40 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (41)
 
Comments

"They're the most innovative. They're the best -- they're most -- have best -- we're the best exporters. We're the best importers. They're most effective. They are the best workers in the world."

We're the best exporters and importers? Wow!


Posted by: Tom Nicholson on October 8, 2008 at 7:43 AM | PERMALINK

From what I saw, Obama was able to land a quite a few blows, by attacking McCain's ideas and policys. McCain couldn't land a single punch, because he was trying to attack 'that one.' Obama attacked the ideas, while McCain attacked the person, leaving him to appear as a petty and grumpy little man.

Posted by: JoeW on October 8, 2008 at 7:51 AM | PERMALINK

Obama creamed the old wrinkly guy. Shredded him like the documents Rumsfeld is presently destroying as we speak. My guess is that Bushit was on his third Bourbon before Obama shredded him too. What we all witnessed last night was a future president calmly and efficiently bury a tired old white-guy Republican who has exhibited racists tendencies that are becoming increasingly hard to cover. His witch doctor VP needs to be placed onto a Monty Python movie set and be weighed on a scale with a duck with, I am sure, the same results illuminated.

Her inciting riots may yet end in someone's beating or worse, and perhaps if Alaska slams her on trooper gate we may yet get some relieve from her hate mongering if she's forced back to the Great White North for a well deserved hand slapping. What fun...

Posted by: stevio on October 8, 2008 at 8:02 AM | PERMALINK

"What the debate proved, I think, is that Obama is becoming more comfortable with the idea of himself as president of the United States"

More importantly, I think the audience looked like it was becoming very comfortable with the idea of Obama as President. They seemed to listen more intently to him over McCain. They seemed to take him more seriously. It was almost as though they responded to him as the President. As for Obama, himself, he seemed absolutely Presidential, and more importantly, he came across as a very accessible President (and not in a faux "common man" George Bush fashion).

I mentioned in the early post...the audience seemed to be the very type of people we are always told Obama is having a a hard time connection to. He certainly connected to them post debate. Those people seemed thrilled. A vast difference between the Obamas working the crowd for a half hour unlike the McCains who looked like they could get out fast enough.

Posted by: Saint Zak on October 8, 2008 at 8:03 AM | PERMALINK

to me mccain came across like a chatty cathy doll - pull the string and out comes some talking point:

(pull string) energy independence/offshore drilling.


(pull string) ronald reagan/reach across the aisle.

it didn't matter what the question was, it only mattered what came out next when you pulled the string.

orange

Posted by: just bill on October 8, 2008 at 8:04 AM | PERMALINK

After the last several days of guilt-by-association attacks, I expected McCain to talk about Bill Ayers

Remember when Palin said that "we" don't talk about people one way in front of one audience and another way somewhere else. Yeah, sure.

And after McCain's legendary love for town-hall debates

After the debate someone on MSNBC said that the audience was told not to react to the candidates. Not just don't clap, but no facial expressions, either. And yet the 80 undecideds were on camera the whole debate. I found that odd. I'm not sure it helped one candidate over the other, but it would have been fairer to have them out of view. This way, it merely looked like everyone was politely bored.

Posted by: Danp on October 8, 2008 at 8:05 AM | PERMALINK

"That one"

Maybe McCain just forgot his name.

Posted by: Jill on October 8, 2008 at 8:11 AM | PERMALINK

I intended to add "(snark)" to my last post.

Posted by: Jill on October 8, 2008 at 8:13 AM | PERMALINK

(pull string) ronald reagan/reach across the aisle.

Yes, that was when McCain was talking about fixing social security. The interesting thing is what happened under Reagan. They raised payroll taxes (read: middle class) and lowered income tax (read: wealthy). That was one of the most outrageous events in the history of tax policy. If you work for your money you pay an extra 15%. If you make it in the stock market, your taxes are capped at 15%.

Don't underestimate the degree to which this policy encouraged the credit crisis. Investors have an incentive to buy stocks or bonds rather than start companies that produce moderately profitable products and services. That in turn creates bubbles of overvalued stocks, while lowering earning capabilities of working people who don't have capital.

Posted by: Danp on October 8, 2008 at 8:17 AM | PERMALINK

McCain seemed to shrink from the moment

I think this is the best observation of McCain I have read. It does seem to me that when the big moment arrives, he becomes smaller. This current financial crisis is a case in point. It provided a tremendous opportunity for him to lead and instead he shrunk. He could have opposed the bailout for all the right reasons and in a way that emphasized his (mythological) identity. He could been the maverick that bucked his president by forging a bipartisan coalition and rejecting an ear-marked filled bad piece of legislation and become a populist (and progressive) hero. He could have been all the things he says he is. Instead, he voted for it then complained about it. Now he wants to change the subject. What a leader.

Posted by: tomb on October 8, 2008 at 8:26 AM | PERMALINK

Last night made one think Obama did him a favor by not agreeing to a series of town-hall debates.

What mystifies me is that McCain stuck with the exact same talking points and attack lines that flopped in the first debate. I can't fathom why they thought what didn't work before would work now, unless 1) those lines are rallying his base, and they *need* that, or 2) they just don't have any other material.

Fail.

Posted by: Gregory on October 8, 2008 at 8:28 AM | PERMALINK

Where was McCain's FLAG PIN?

Posted by: GPBah on October 8, 2008 at 8:28 AM | PERMALINK

And after McCain's legendary love for town-hall debates, I expected McCain to thrive rather easily in his habitat of choice. Instead, he seemed clumsy and unsure of himself.

From the very beginning, it is important to note that this particular townhall was not a McCain townhall, packed with vetted supporters and gladly consuming his red-meat harangue; rather, it was a classic form, with a party wholly independent of the candidates selecting not only the audience, but the questions that audience might proffer to those candidates. It left McCain wholly unprepared for the event---and that unpreparedness was glaringly obvious in his performance. Either he was 'copiously sedated," or he has finally grasped the first inkling of the great Truth in all of this---that he, John McCain, will not ascend to the Presidency....

Posted by: Steve on October 8, 2008 at 8:30 AM | PERMALINK

To be fair, this wasn't really a "townhall meeting". Questioners were not allowed to follow up and the questions Brokaw chose were pretty standard questions that he may well have asked in a traditional debate format.

Posted by: vrk on October 8, 2008 at 8:32 AM | PERMALINK

At the beginning of the debate McCain threw out the idea that the government might want to buy up all the bad mortgages and renegotiate them. I noticed that idea went over like a led balloon with the focus groups. Why?

Posted by: Ron Byers on October 8, 2008 at 8:38 AM | PERMALINK

For a military man, McCain seems to have completely forgotten that the first step in battle is to face your enemy. He can't look Obama in the eye and that is now painfully obvious. What kind of warrior can't look his opponent in the eyes?

After baiting Obama all week with the Bill Ayers insinuations, McCain can't make even a feeble accusation to Obama's face. McCain's strategists evidently specialize in grade school playground disputes. Next debate, McCain is sure to pull out the spit balls.

Posted by: Capt Kirk on October 8, 2008 at 8:40 AM | PERMALINK

VRK - You said it -No town hall meeting , just a regurgitation of talking points from both sides. Thats why I let the pundits watch it for me. I just wish Obama had quoted one of McLames personal attacks and asked him to say it to his face. McLame and Reichmarshall Palin are very brave when speaking in front of a Red meat crowd, but don't have the guts to to say it to his face

Posted by: John R on October 8, 2008 at 8:40 AM | PERMALINK

Yes, Obama is low key, "capable but underwhelming." I think this is intentional, just as everything that happens in his campaign is intentional. He's nearing the end of a long climb, one of the most important elements of which has been showing potential voters how steady, respectful, thoughtful, and capable he is. His fire and his vision inspired his base and secured the nomination, but he understood from the first that winning the general election would require connecting with a broader demographic. We are seeing the emergence of one of the most brilliant politicians in the country's history.

Posted by: Acorvid on October 8, 2008 at 8:43 AM | PERMALINK

buy up all the bad mortgages and renegotiate them Ron Byers

What did it even mean? As I listened to him I thought he was offering a new program, pandering to the Kucinich anti-bailout crowd. But the more I think about it the more I just wonder it was just verbal slight of hand. But let's assume he really meant, as Politico suggests (see Hilzoy's link), that he wants to renegotiate mortgages with people who actually paid down payments and did not lie on their loan applications. It just leaves a wide field of interpretation. One person will think about the guy who bought a half-million dollar house with a $50,000 income. Someone else will think about the guy who bought the half-million dollar house that lost value, and the buyer decided to walk away from it. I'm glad focus groups didn't like it. McCain has a tendency to offer these vague spur of the moment solutions (think: total spending freeze). Maybe people are starting to notice that.

Posted by: Danp on October 8, 2008 at 8:51 AM | PERMALINK

Part of me wishes that Obama had called McCain out and asked him to smear him to his face. Imply that McCain was a two faced punk assed little shit (which is he). But discretion is the better part of valor and that's why Obama's going to be the next president of the USA as long as we don't get complacent.

We still need to get out the vote.

We still need to donate money to buy crucial ad time in swing states.

We still need to represent Obama and expose McCain to undecideds we meet.

It's the home stretch. I just hope Obama's supporters don't pull a Usain Bolt and only run 90 out of 100 meters. Let's sprint through the tape people.

Posted by: Buffalonian on October 8, 2008 at 8:53 AM | PERMALINK

Seems like you nailed the analysis right on. One telling point is that McShame left early, was not very gracious during or after the debate, would not shake Obamas hand, and clearly was not comfortable all night. An older politician now looks like a crotchety old man after last night.

Posted by: wom67 on October 8, 2008 at 9:04 AM | PERMALINK

I agree with the comment that Obama is emerging as one of the brilliant politicians of our time. Every move is carefully calibrated with seeming calculated. Shrewd has to be added to the lexicon on this guy.

Also, I thought it was amazing how quickly McCain left the room and how Obama and Michelle stayed and worked the group, giving pictures, it seemed to sum up the night.

I thought McCain would give Obama a go. Didn't happen.

Posted by: Scott F. on October 8, 2008 at 9:12 AM | PERMALINK

Watched the debate via C-Span. Watching the post debate room on an open camera was much more interesting than listening to the yapping heads.

The McCains seemed to do a perfunctory spin around the room and didn't stay long.

The Obamas stayed quite a long time. For a room full of "undecided" voters, they seemed quite taken with the candidate. Many, many cameras came out and Obama couldn't keep up with the requests for photos with people. The vibe of the room was striking as he worked his way around. People really did seem to come alive and it became a room abuzz--after McCain exited.

I voted for McCain in the Republican primary in 2000 and have over the years had a high regard for him but last night it became *painful* obvious (less so politically than on a human level) that he needs to be put out to pasture. (I voted for Gore in the general in 2000 and I changed my party affiliation after Bush v Gore.) Over the past eight years, I have been disgusted with McCain's incessant pandering to the Bush crowd and the right wing "base". This time my vote will go to Obama.

Lately we have been watching the decline of my own parents and so what struck me last night was how sad and embarrassing that McCain just comes across as grumpy granddad, stuck banging on about his past glory days, whose age has caught up with him. A man vaguely raging at his own mortality and beyond really comprehending how much his sharpness has left him. It takes a measure of self knowledge to go out at the top of one's game. I am sorry he did not. He lost me when he morphed into Bush Act Two.

We should all hope to have the good sense and graces to know when it comes our time to bid the stage adieu. A good many times last night I just couldn't watch. Nothing to gloat or high-five over. It is sad that he will be remembered as the guy who put "Country First!" except the last few years of his career when he didn't fully comprehend that his actions did just the opposite.

Posted by: Cervantes on October 8, 2008 at 9:38 AM | PERMALINK

I think Steve made a good point about McCain's so called experience with Town Halls. In reality, they probably resemble Dick Nixon's Town Hall meetings chronicled by Joe McGuinness's great book on that campaign.

It's no surprise he cratered in that setting.He doesn't do "press conferences" or face anything remotely like tough questions. He's the typical bully who shrinks when challenged. Add to that, a lot of people are getting a real good look at Obama now, and they are likin what they see. I predict a big spike in his numbers.

Game Over.

Posted by: Mike Reilly on October 8, 2008 at 9:43 AM | PERMALINK

Track is in Iraq ( I can picture a Tom Green sing-songing "the track is in Iraq, track is in Iraq, he's really kind of whack , her Track is in Iraq!)

Posted by: RememberNovember on October 8, 2008 at 9:48 AM | PERMALINK

McCain's Town Halls are like the Town Hall website- filled with predisposed sycophants who need to get on a "list" in order to participate.

Posted by: RememberNovember on October 8, 2008 at 9:52 AM | PERMALINK

Did anyone else catch that McCain said that most of us not-yet-retired will have to accept a cut in Social Security benefits? I thought that would tick a few people off. It does me. After paying in for 45 years, I get the reduced payments???

Posted by: Always Hopeful on October 8, 2008 at 10:13 AM | PERMALINK

Vote THAT One in 2008 ... http://www.cafepress.com/thatone_2008

Posted by: Xeno on October 8, 2008 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK

If you really want insight into McCain's mind, watch the following moments closely....

1) At some point McCain goes on a sustained attack about Obama, throwing out a lot of charges and assertions about Obama that are patently false. I think it had to do with foreign policy, talking softly, etc.

2) Obama gets up, and like a hockey player with a free shot on goal, pulls the stick back and bitch slaps John McCain into another country. I think it's when he reminds people about 'bomb bomb Iran', and McCain's North Korea comments, but maybe it's when Obama says, "You're right: I don't understand how you got us into this damn war in Iraq."

3) Almost immediately, in the next segment, McCain notes that some of what Barack Obama said in Obama's answer to that same next question is 'right' -- meaning McCain is in agreement with Obama's thoughts. This is (I remember noting it) the first time McCain suggests that Obama knows anything about anything.

To recap:

1) McCain tries to bully Obama.

2) Obama punches McCain in the mouth.

3) McCain thinks Obama might be right on a few things.

This is descriptive of McCain, the Republican playbook, and how Democrats must always respond.

Posted by: The Phantom on October 8, 2008 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK

I was talking to my 87 year old mother this morning about the show and she complained about how much McCain walked around when Obama was talking. She said it looked like he had to pee.

Posted by: wbn on October 8, 2008 at 10:32 AM | PERMALINK

As others have pointed out, the audience accepted Obama as presidential caliber. What interested me was on CNN hearing Bill Bennett state that Obama was obviously presidential material. Eight months ago most of the CNN crowd would have been carping on how wooden and cold Obama was, how he didn't connect. Now they describe him as presidential. This is a very good sign.

Posted by: jen f on October 8, 2008 at 10:41 AM | PERMALINK

I had forgot about seeing mccain not shaking Obama's hand.
do you think he has a problem with african americans?

Posted by: hubert greenleaf on October 8, 2008 at 11:14 AM | PERMALINK

my favorite part was after the debate was over and senator obama shook the eager hand of just about every audience member.

i kept thinking, no, he'll leave now, but he didn't -- more people were waiting to shake his hand.

(countdown has a great viewer for watching the live feed of the debate.)

where was mccain?

his handlers took him home -- it was well past his bed time.

Posted by: karen marie on October 8, 2008 at 11:24 AM | PERMALINK

I am still in shock that he didn't shake his hand there at the end.

Posted by: on October 8, 2008 at 11:29 AM | PERMALINK

One point of contention:

John McCain spoke of "middle income earners." I agree he doesn't give a rats ass about them, but this is as good as saying 'middle class.' Maybe better because 'class' is not really what we are that concerned about.

Posted by: TBone on October 8, 2008 at 12:05 PM | PERMALINK

When one of the candidates finished what they were saying, Tom Brokaw would sometimes offer a "thank you, Senator." I need to go back and count, but my perception is that he thanked McCain "frequently" and he thanked Obama "occasionally". Anybody else think that?

Posted by: emd on October 8, 2008 at 12:17 PM | PERMALINK

And after McCain's legendary love for town-hall debates, I expected McCain to thrive rather easily in his habitat of choice. Instead, he seemed clumsy and unsure of himself.

Of course he stumbled last night because his idea of a "town hall" meeting is an audience comprised entirely of low-information McCain supporters. Even though Brokaw is an idiot and tried in subtle ways to skew in his favor, McCain still had to respond to Obama's answers to questions from a spectrum of voters.

Posted by: Jeff II on October 8, 2008 at 12:24 PM | PERMALINK

McCain is used to town-hall meetings in which no one challenges him. They're fun and easy, just so long he has a stage all to himself.

Yes, but most of all, McCain works with the immediate feedback from his town-hall meetings. He picks up an the mood of an audience from its sighs, chuckles, applause, and silence. It's the same sort of give-and-take that he used to relish with the press. Like anyone with effective stage skills, he gauges which issues connect with the audience and builds on them.

Hearing nothing, McCain was out of his element. He didn't know when to move closer to people, when to diffuse a bit of tension. There were no laugh breaks for him to tune his thoughts, no silent lapses telling him to either go deeper or back off of an uncomfortable topic.

Yup, Obama's professorial counterpoint was perfect. A great teacher hears his students and adjusts his approach if it becomes clear that he's talking over their heads. But, he doesn't need their approval to advance his core message.

Posted by: Bose on October 8, 2008 at 1:18 PM | PERMALINK

that one = macaca?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWSRBQQCfUI

Posted by: charlie on October 8, 2008 at 2:16 PM | PERMALINK

This post is a great example of dog whistle racism in today's politics. And there are so many more!


We're tracking political race baiting at www.stopdogwhistleracism.com. We find the good, bad and ugly from the right, left and center about race in the race. Visit us today for a non-partisan take on the race card, and the race card card, in today's politics.


Hope to see you at StopDog!

Posted by: lyndat on October 8, 2008 at 2:54 PM | PERMALINK

He also bombed the few jokes he tried. Hair transplant?

Too bad he couldn't offer to enter Sarah Palin the wet t-shirt contest.

Posted by: on October 8, 2008 at 3:00 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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