Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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October 13, 2008

POST/ABC POLL OFFERS MCCAIN NO RELIEF.... A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Barack Obama leading John McCain nationally by 10 points, 53% to 43%, pointing to a race in which "the two presidential nominees appear to be on opposite trajectories."

Oddly enough, while trailing by 10 has to be discouraging for the Republican ticket, it's the details of the poll that look even worse.

Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64 percent, now view Obama favorably, up six percentage points from early September. About a third of voters have a better opinion of the senator from Illinois because of his debate performances, while 8 percent have a lower opinion of him. By contrast, more than a quarter said they think worse of McCain as a result of the debates, more than double the proportion saying their opinion had improved. McCain's overall rating has also dipped seven points, to 52 percent, over the past month.

Looking through the internals, good news for McCain is hard to find. Voters prefer Obama on the economy, healthcare, and tax policy. A clear majority believe Obama is "about right" ideologically, while a plurality see McCain as "too conservative." Poll respondents perceive Obama as the "safer" choice between the two candidates.

In a result that will surely sting at McCain campaign headquarters, Obama has a 30-point lead -- 58% to 28% -- on which candidate better understands the economic problems facing Americans.

In a result that will sting even more, Obama also enjoys a 14-point lead on which candidate is the "stronger leader," a question on which McCain used to enjoy a double-digit lead.

As for the results of the McCain campaign's recent tactics, 59% of voters said McCain is "mainly on the attack." Just 35% believe McCain is addressing the issues -- about half the number (68%) who believe Obama is doing so.

And just to top things off, the enthusiasm gap is evident once more -- 61% of Obama supporters described themselves as "very enthusiastic" about their candidate, while 38% of McCain supporters said the same. McCain's number is down eight points since early September.

Steve Benen 10:30 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (22)
 
Comments

This is excellent news for Rudy Guliani

Posted by: Z. Mulls on October 13, 2008 at 10:34 AM | PERMALINK

There's only one poll that matters, and most liberals will be too lazy or complacent to take part in it.

Posted by: Al on October 13, 2008 at 10:35 AM | PERMALINK

As the stock market fell some on the right made the claim that it was because Obama led in the polls. Now that his lead is double digits the market is climbing. Do you think they are re-thinking their position?

Posted by: ohcomeonhussein on October 13, 2008 at 10:38 AM | PERMALINK

Just imagine if the MSM had covered Palin's lies, or the trooper report, or mentioned Keating as much as Ayers...

Posted by: John McCain: Worse than Bush on October 13, 2008 at 10:43 AM | PERMALINK

If McCain's inevitable fate is to lose, then wouldn't it make sense for Palin to be out only for herself at this point? It sure looks to me that she is building up a constituency for herself rather than working toward a win for McCain.

Anyway, I hope to see a discussion of that possibility.

Posted by: Bob M on October 13, 2008 at 10:44 AM | PERMALINK

@ohcomeonhussein
They never rethink their positions. They just make up new ones.

Posted by: Jörgen in Germany on October 13, 2008 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK

Look for the new media meme to be: if Obama is leading by this much in the internals, why isn't he up by more overall? Why can't Obama lock up the angry old white man vote!?!?!?

Posted by: Jake on October 13, 2008 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK

Jörgen in Germany said:
They never rethink their positions. They just make up new ones.

And they insist that it was the Democrats who held the original position.

Posted by: SteveT on October 13, 2008 at 10:52 AM | PERMALINK


In the past 40 years, no one has won the general election without also winning Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Can Obama be the first?


Posted by: Alphonse on October 13, 2008 at 10:53 AM | PERMALINK

It sure looks to me that she (Palin) is building up a constituency for herself rather than working toward a win for McCain.

If her much ballyhooed visit to WV is any indication, her future is not all that bright. She landed at the airport for a few minutes, drawing about a dozen supporters and a hundred or so protesters. She gave no speech, even though the McCain campaign was calling it a rally.

Posted by: Danp on October 13, 2008 at 10:54 AM | PERMALINK

Jake wrote: Look for the new media meme to be: if Obama is leading by this much in the internals, why isn't he up by more overall? Why can't Obama lock up the angry old white man vote!?!?!?

Pat Buchanan is already there, and somebody on the Meet The Press panel said that yesterday morning.

Posted by: Lifelong Dem on October 13, 2008 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK

Even better: McCain has lost his substantial lead in national security. His lead has dwindled from 15% to 6%. He impulsively sacrificed that when he picked Palin.

People have been speculating that the only thing that can help McCain now is a terrorist attack. I think with Palin on the ticket an attack is only going to highlight how weak McCain ticket is on this issue. You are only as strong as your weakest link.


Posted by: John Henry on October 13, 2008 at 10:59 AM | PERMALINK

And just to top things off, the enthusiasm gap is evident once more -- 61% of Obama supporters described themselves as "very enthusiastic" about their candidate, while 38% of McCain supporters said the same. McCain's number is down eight points since early September.

It's a minor point, but I wish poll-takers were asking the enthusiasm question about the ticket. I think enthusiasm for Palin makes that number somewhat better for McCain -- though not a lot better....

Posted by: Steve M. on October 13, 2008 at 11:08 AM | PERMALINK

A clue to the magnitude of the enthusiasm gap is that the usual right-wing contributers to Washington Monthly threads (eg Orwell) have completely disappeared. Or have they all been banned?

Posted by: Daryl Hussein McCullough on October 13, 2008 at 11:13 AM | PERMALINK

Er, contributors, not contributers.

Posted by: Daryl Hussein McCullough on October 13, 2008 at 11:16 AM | PERMALINK

Do not let up, people. Continue to volunteer time or donate money to the Obama campaign. Now is not the time to sit back at gloat. No matter how good things look we should assume something unexpected will happen to shake up the race.

Posted by: independent thinker on October 13, 2008 at 11:17 AM | PERMALINK

In the past 40 years, no one has won the general election without also winning Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky. Can Obama be the first? Posted by: Alphonse

Easily, if these are the only states that McCain wins along with Arizona, Texas and Alaska.

Obama may win by the biggest margin in nearly 30 years.

And while the cursed Electoral College is ultimately the only thing that matters, Obama may score one the largest winning vote totals ever. He may lose by just a few percentage points were he loses, but is poised to win by huge margins everywhere else.

Posted by: Jeff II on October 13, 2008 at 11:18 AM | PERMALINK

"Obama may win by the biggest margin in nearly 30 years."

It will be great if he does, he's got an impressive ground game. It will teach the Republicans that:

Community Organizers win elections!

Posted by: John Henry on October 13, 2008 at 11:43 AM | PERMALINK

I don't see any "fickle factor" addressed in polls. How adamant is the support for Obama by those telling pollsters he has their vote? The electorate has a herd mentality and more than a few are possessed of bovine level intellect. What segment of Obama's 53% would bolt to McCain given the slightest provocation? A terrorist attack? A smear more on the mark, plausible or difficult to skillfully (and factually) repudiate than any yet lobbed? I don't think Democrats have much reason to be sanguine with these poll results.

Posted by: steve duncan on October 13, 2008 at 11:47 AM | PERMALINK
Poll respondents perceive Obama as the "safer" choice between the two candidates.

Good to see the McCain tactic of labeling Obama as an "other" who no one really knows failed. Miserably.

That's absolutely huge -- in fact, depending on the spread, that may be the biggest deal in the whole thing. In a time of mass uncertainty about ... well, damn near everything, being the "safe" choice is to be the "winning" choice.

Nicely done, Team Obama ... nicely done.

**standing ovation**

Posted by: Mark D on October 13, 2008 at 12:15 PM | PERMALINK

Independent thinker: before you send your check read this.

Oddly enough, the McCain enthusiasm gap is the result of Hon. Sen. McCain not going even further into the miasma of irrelevant and scurrilous attacks.

Posted by: jhm on October 13, 2008 at 1:57 PM | PERMALINK

sarah palin will bring out a lot of liberals and independents who normally wouldn't vote, to do so.

she's just frightening... a theocon and a cut-throat political opportunist who lies shamelessly and efortlessly.

creeping American fascism in a perfect blend of style over substance.

Posted by: David on October 13, 2008 at 3:28 PM | PERMALINK




 

 
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