October 14, 2008
TUESDAY'S CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP....Today's installment of campaign-related news items that wouldn't generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:
* McCain hosted an event in North Carolina yesterday, and said he would open the floor to questions after his speech. After he spoke, however, McCain shook some hands and left. "I thought this was a town hall meeting?" a man asked the press corps.
* The League of Conservation Voters is going after McCain in Colorado for raising the possibility of taking more of the state's water for neighboring states.
* Joe Lieberman isn't just helping McCain; he's also helping vulnerable Republican candidates like Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.).
* A new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey takes a closer look at four key bellwether counties that Bush won in 2000 and 2004 in Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and North Carolina. Obama now leads in three of the four.
* In Ohio, SurveyUSA shows Obama leading McCain by five, 50% to 45%, while Rasmussen shows Obama up by two, 49% to 47%.
* In Florida, Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain by five, 51% to 46%.
* In Virginia, Rasmussen shows Obama leading McCain by three, 50% to 47%.
* In Colorado, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading McCain by nine, 52% to 43%.
* In North Carolina, Rasmussen shows Obama and McCain tied at 48% each.
* In Missouri, SurveyUSA shows Obama leading McCain by eight, 51% to 43%, while Rasmussen shows Obama up by three, 50% to 47%.
* In Pennsylvania, SurveyUSA shows Obama leading McCain by 15, 55% to 40%.
* In Minnesota, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading McCain by 11, 51% to 40%.
* In Wisconsin, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading McCain by 17, 54% to 37%.
* In Michigan, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading McCain by 16, 54% to 38%.
* In New Jersey, SurveyUSA shows Obama leading McCain by 15, 55% to 40%.
* In New York, SurveyUSA shows Obama leading McCain by 33, 64% to 31%.
* In Oregon, SurveyUSA shows Obama leading McCain by 17, 57% to 40%.
—Steve Benen 12:00 PM
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Your last entry for New York should be changed to Oregon.
Posted by: Bulworth on October 14, 2008 at 12:02 PM | PERMALINK
That last poll is oregon, not new york
Posted by: AntiCliche on October 14, 2008 at 12:03 PM | PERMALINK
The McCain numbers are falling off a cliff.
I like that in a Republican.
Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on October 14, 2008 at 12:05 PM | PERMALINK
Joe Lieberman isn't just helping McCain; he's also helping vulnerable Republican candidates like Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.).
Helping? A bit generous, don't you think?
Posted by: Danp on October 14, 2008 at 12:08 PM | PERMALINK
I wonder where Lieberman plans to caucus next term?
Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on October 14, 2008 at 12:10 PM | PERMALINK
* Joe Lieberman isn't just helping McCain; he's also helping vulnerable Republican candidates like Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.).
Lieberman is a lot of things, but stupid isn't one of them. He knows the larger the Democratic majority in the senate the smaller his chances of retaining any power. He knows his chairmanship is gone with the wind, but he probably has high hopes that, with the mid-terms, his political fortunes will shift once again. He has cast his lot with the GOP for better or worse.
Posted by: majun on October 14, 2008 at 12:14 PM | PERMALINK
Lieberman want to remain a powerful figure in the Senate so he needs to keep the Democrats from gaining too much.
I think it has less to do with his ideology than his lust for power.
Posted by: doubtful on October 14, 2008 at 12:14 PM | PERMALINK
And item 4 has NC twice.
Posted by: DonBoy on October 14, 2008 at 12:25 PM | PERMALINK
* Joe Lieberman isn't just helping McCain; he's also helping vulnerable Republican candidates like Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.).
So typical. Franken hosted fundraisers and appeared at rallies for Lieberman back in the day. He seems especially to enjoy sticking knives in the backs of people who have helped him: The Clintons, Obama. I'm sure he regrets Gore staying out of politics so he can't campaign for his opponent.
Posted by: Jim on October 14, 2008 at 12:30 PM | PERMALINK
No matter what happens tomorrow, the CW will be that McCain won and is starting his comeback.
Posted by: John McCain: Worse than Bush on October 14, 2008 at 12:30 PM | PERMALINK
DonBoy -
I assume you know this by the Politico survey concerns four counties in Nevada, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado.
Posted by: Old School on October 14, 2008 at 12:31 PM | PERMALINK
I know I really, really shouldn't get all excited about polls. They've been wrong before, and there's still three weeks left.
But ... damn -- Obama's up Virginia? North Carolina? Florida?! Frickin' Missouri?!?!
Anyone who criticized Dean for the 50-state strategy should admit their mistake and take their penance. It was a brilliant strategy. That and Obama's ground game are the two keys to getting Democrats back on track and back in control.
Now if they'd just show a bit of spine in Congress and smack around the GOP obstructionist assfaces a bit, I'd be absolutely giddy ...
Posted by: Mark D on October 14, 2008 at 12:31 PM | PERMALINK
A month or so ago I predicted the only flipped states would be New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, and maybe Nevada. In other words, a much more boring result than people were expecting. It looks like it will be bigger than that since McCain has been shooting himself in the foot, the leg, the arm, and any other place he can reach. I still think the final results will be smaller than some predictions--I can't see Obama taking home North Dakota or North Carolina.
Posted by: ArkPanda on October 14, 2008 at 12:38 PM | PERMALINK
At this point, I don't think it to be premature by labeling the GOP political philosophy as a hybrid, genetically-engineered blending of an ostrich; burying its head in the sand to hide from the gods'-awful truth---and a lemming; flinging itself off a cliff and into the sea with all the other lemmings, merely on the premise that it must, by necessity, never break from the stupidities of its fellow lemmings.
We might even dare to devise a name, and a definition, for this phenomenon of political Hara Kiri, as the Japanese have so aptly named it.
In a word: McOstrilemmingism.
McOstrilemmingism would be rather difficult to define as a noun, although "a McOstrilemmingist" could be an individual, and the term would also be valid in identifying a political movement.. The term "McOstrilemmingistic" would be an applicable adjective to modify a noun, and "McOstrilemmingistically" certainly qualifies as an adverb.
But in the end, I think it serves best as one of those extremely rare verbs that can denote both a state of action, and a state of being, that defines for the world both the McCain campaign's present state of being, and its now-clearly-suicidal course of action.
"McOstrilemming"---probably a good reason for being a Democrat, if there ever was one....
Posted by: Steve W. on October 14, 2008 at 12:42 PM | PERMALINK
Keep in mind that the poll numbers do NOT include those who use cell phones only, most of whom are young voters. Obama's actual lead is probably a good deal greater.
Posted by: impeachcheneythenbush on October 14, 2008 at 12:45 PM | PERMALINK
-I can't see Obama taking home North Dakota or North Carolina. Posted by: ArkPanda
If Obama gets Ohio and/or Florida, McCain can have all the Tar Heels and dust farmers he likes. In fact, the only major state that looks to be in the bag for McCain is Texas, and it is probably a hopeless case forever. Otherwise, winning Arizona, Alaska, Oklahoma, Indiana (birth place of the Klan) and most of the Confederacy just doesn't matter.
Posted by: Jeff II on October 14, 2008 at 12:45 PM | PERMALINK
Mark D, the Congressional Democrats will be able to grow more of the proverbial spine once they increase their majority. Some of our likely senate pickups this year are real honest-to-goodness progressives (Jeff Merkley, Mark Begich, and the Udall cousins jump to mind-- and maybe even Al Franken can win, what with the newest controversies in the Coleman camp,) so the dialog in the senate can definitely move in a more progressive direction. And, yes, I know, plenty of our best senate pickups are more of the same old centrist style of Democrat, but in the cases of Warner and Hagan, they are good matches for their region. With a big enough Democratic majority, a few centrist Southerners won't drive the party agenda, the same way Linc Chafee never drove the Republican agenda. We'll have the centrists to pad our majority from the places we need them, and we'll also have some real progressives from our strongholds (the coasts) and growth regions (the Great Lakes region and the Rocky Mountains). Think of what the senate will look like after this election-- with the aforementioned Merkley, Begich, Udall, and Udall added to last cycle's pickups of Whitehouse, Brown, and Tester, along with progressive standbys like Leahy, Dodd, Feingold, and Boxer . . . methinks I see some spine starting to show.
Posted by: The Caped Composer on October 14, 2008 at 12:48 PM | PERMALINK
Hmm, the new echo chamber addition to ACORN is the Cloward-Piven Strategy.
Apparently, ACORN wants to break the system that is currently benefiting its stated agenda, to implement a new socialist system of voting (their hidden agenda, as stated by the right wing blogs). The problem is that I cannot think of a way to 'socialize' voting.
And the right-wing blogs make it really, really hard to separate the chaff from the wheat.
Posted by: dk on October 14, 2008 at 12:51 PM | PERMALINK
Given all these poll results it is understandable to worry about a McCain "comeback" which surely the msm would prefer, but I get the sense in the last couple of weeks that America has decided and that given the economic problems a majority of people simply want to get Obama into office as soon as possible. While there are still 21 days left, with early voting, it may really be too late for McCain already.
Posted by: Terry on October 14, 2008 at 12:55 PM | PERMALINK
First the Senate Democratic "leadership" kissed Lieberman's butt because they wanted to hold on to the majority even though nothing would have changed because the Organizing Resolution for would have remained in effect even without him. Now I'm hearing that Lieberman is essential to a filibuster-proof majority. What makes anyone think that he won't vote with his party (Republican) anyway? Strip him of his chairmanship as soon as the Senate goes back in session. Bar him from caucausing with the Democrats. Any stature that he has a committee chairman will only aid his re-election bid. Send him home to his Republican friends now.
Posted by: Dennis - SGMM on October 14, 2008 at 1:02 PM | PERMALINK
In a word: McOstrilemmingism. Posted by: Steve W.
Don't hold your breath on Wikipedia of Websters picking up on that mouthful. Just call them what we've been calling them for three years now - dead enders. At this rate, the hardcore faithful, the same idiotic 25% that still think Bush is doing a good job, may be all McCain will have by November 4.
Posted by: Jeff II on October 14, 2008 at 1:10 PM | PERMALINK
I know I really, really shouldn't get all excited about polls. They've been wrong before, and there's still three weeks left.
I tend to be a pessimist and stick with the Rasmussen polling, which tends to be weighted a bit more heavily towards Republicans than other polls.
Even given that, the polls are looking really good. I remember four years ago looking at the polls in early October and becoming convinced that Kerry had lost it. And McCain is doing far, far worse than Kerry was last election.
Apparently, ACORN wants to break the system that is currently benefiting its stated agenda, to implement a new socialist system of voting (their hidden agenda, as stated by the right wing blogs). The problem is that I cannot think of a way to 'socialize' voting.
If they mean "do voting the way that they do in 'socialist Europe'", they might be right to a degree. Because in many democracies the state takes the responsibility to register voters - instead of having volunteers going around to register folks.
This, of course, scares the ever living crap out of conservatives because if everyone is registered to vote automatically, and there isn't a patchwork of rules and regulations that can be abused, then it's a helluva lot harder to disenfranchise folks. Anything that makes voting easier is anathema to them.
Posted by: NonyNony on October 14, 2008 at 1:25 PM | PERMALINK
I get the sense in the last couple of weeks that America has decided and that given the economic problems a majority of people simply want to get Obama into office as soon as possible. While there are still 21 days left, with early voting, it may really be too late for McCain already.
It is too late for McCain already. Feels so good to say that.
Last night I saw a clip of Obama promptly admonishing an audience that booed when Obama referred to "my opponent." (Contrast that with two people who won't even call out audience members on death threats and shouts of treason; Obama wouldn't even let his people boo.)
Obama shook his head at the booing and said, "We don't need that. What we need now is to vote." Cheers followed.
I loved that simple statement, which managed to convey:
1) We are non-insane grownups who settle our political disagreements by voting.
2) We are going to vote, and when we do, we are going to win.
3) (This might be me projecting!) Damn, can we just vote and get this election done with already?!
Posted by: shortstop on October 14, 2008 at 1:27 PM | PERMALINK
Sorry--first graf of mine at 1:27 was quoting Terry at 12:55.
Posted by: on October 14, 2008 at 1:29 PM | PERMALINK
How about a little proofreading guys?
"A new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey takes a closer look at four key bellwether counties that Bush won in 2000 and 2004 in Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and North Carolina."?
Seen a lot of typos and garbled sentences lately. We can wait a few minutes for you to get it right.
Posted by: markg8 on October 14, 2008 at 1:48 PM | PERMALINK
My response to Lieberman: disappointed, but not surprised. The honorable lying snake from Delaware is trying to save his political skin. Franken fought for Lieberman, both in his senate runs and as VP, and this is the thanks he gets? I tell you this though: if Lieberman is allowed to hold any chairmanship post November, the Democratic party can kiss my contributions goodbye. Honestly, what more does he have to do to loose his seniority?
Posted by: Diogenes on October 14, 2008 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK
The honorable lying snake from Delaware is trying to save his political skin.
Whoa. Connecticut.
Posted by: on October 14, 2008 at 1:58 PM | PERMALINK
I continue my own personal polling by counting bumper stickers in the parking garage here in Charlotte, North Carolina. It's silly, but it gives me hope that we can change the color of this state. I was disappointed to see three McCain stickers and no Obama stickers today except for the one I have proudly displayed on my bumper! Let's hope it was just an anomoly.
Posted by: The sister on October 14, 2008 at 2:22 PM | PERMALINK
I can't believe that Obama is that far ahead here in Oregon, but that Senator Gordon Smith (R) is still neck and neck in his re-election bid.
Posted by: Tiparillo on October 14, 2008 at 2:50 PM | PERMALINK
RE: * Joe Lieberman isn't just helping McCain; he's also helping vulnerable Republican candidates like Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.).
Do I sense a meme? David Frum went on Rachel Maddow's show last night and attacked her for her "non-serious" and sarcastic approach to the news. He included Stewart and Colbert in his rant, as well.
This makes me suspect that there's a new straw man in the corn field. Lieberman's probably not campaigning for Norm Coleman so much as he's campaigning AGAINST Al Franken.
These guys fear humor!
So, repeat after me (and Saul Alinsky): Mock the Enemy!
Posted by: SBGorr on October 14, 2008 at 3:58 PM | PERMALINK
I really hope that the day after the election, Lieberman is given the job of washing out Congressional spitoons, or urinals or something like that. I can't imagine the argument being made that he's too smart to let him go, since he's been on the wrong side of pretty much every major issue in the last 8 years, although he IS smarter than John McCain.
Perhaps Sarah Palin will retain him as her foreign policy advisor when she goes back to being Governor of Alaska, at least until the next opportunity to vote her out.
Posted by: Mark on October 14, 2008 at 4:50 PM | PERMALINK
if Lieberman is allowed to hold any chairmanship post November, the Democratic party can kiss my contributions goodbye. Honestly, what more does he have to do to loose his seniority? Posted by: Diogenes
This is a mystery. He should have been stripped of everything months ago. He's not a Democrat any longer and supports the Rethugs on pretty much every issue.
Posted by: Jeff II on October 14, 2008 at 5:22 PM | PERMALINK