October 14, 2008
MCCAIN'S ECONOMIC DO-OVER.... After a series of duds, the McCain campaign came up with a "Homeowner Resurgence Plan" last week, which was arguably the biggest policy fiasco McCain has had in months. It led the campaign to look for a "do-over" on economic policy in the middle of a financial crisis.
After some humiliating fits and starts, McCain actually presented a new proposal this morning.
Senator John McCain unveiled $52.5 billion in new economic proposals on Tuesday aimed at easing financial distress on the nation's seniors, workers and the unemployed.
Mr. McCain said he would propose that people 59 years and older who withdraw money from IRAs or 401(k) retirement plans in 2009 and 2010 pay a tax rate of 10 per cent on the money rather than their higher normal tax rates. The plan would cost $36 billion, based on McCain campaign internal estimates, according to Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mr. McCain's chief economic adviser.
In addition, Mr. McCain proposed a reduction in the tax on long-term capital gains to 7.5 percent from 15 percent in 2009 and 2010 at an estimated cost of $10 billion, an acceleration in the tax write-off for stock losses, allowing Americans to deduct $15,000 in losses a year for the tax years 2008 and 2009 (current rules allow deductions for up to $3,000 in losses), and a suspension on the tax on unemployment insurance benefits in 2008 and 2009.
Even if we put aside the striking disarray that led to today's announcement, this was hardly worth waiting for. Some of McCain's latest plan, including the retirement proposal and not taxing unemployment benefits, is similar to what Obama said yesterday. The rest is a regressive tax cut that primarily helps millionaires, and a capital gains tax cut that, as a practical matter, is "a lousy stimulus."
Is this really supposed to improve McCain's footing on economic issues? It seems unlikely to have any real impact.
—Steve Benen 1:15 PM
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Just how does this help middle & lower class Americans who are suffering?
Posted by: sduffys on October 14, 2008 at 1:20 PM | PERMALINK
Notice these are all limited to a couple years as law. Once they're about to expire Republicans will propose making them permanent. If it is appropriate Democrats will point out that either their cost hasn't justified their return or the measures can be modified or eliminated in favor of other measures. Just in time for the 2010 midterms Republicans will scream Democrats want to "raise" capital gains taxes, "raise" the interest penalty for withdrawing IRA/401K money and "raise" taxes on unemployment benefits. We've seen this duplicity before.
Posted by: steve duncan on October 14, 2008 at 1:22 PM | PERMALINK
a suspension on the tax on unemployment insurance benefits in 2008 and 2009.
In his speech today, McCain chuckled about how absurd this tax is anyway. So why only two years?
Posted by: Danp on October 14, 2008 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK
Let's give the conservatives what they really want: eliminate the capital gains tax.
Then, of course, tax all capital gains as regular income.
It's a fair compromise. Money that makes money should be taxed at the same rate as work that makes money
Posted by: martin on October 14, 2008 at 1:25 PM | PERMALINK
What gains?
Who has massive gains???
Posted by: lilybart on October 14, 2008 at 1:26 PM | PERMALINK
When are we getting that Gas Tax Holiday that he was promising?
Posted by: Christopher Fish on October 14, 2008 at 1:29 PM | PERMALINK
A capital gains tax cut is a way to coax money into the market. It makes the gains you may get slightly bigger because you're not paying taxes on them. It's not a totally stupid move if it's targeted - Obama proposed eliminating capital gains taxes on investments in small businesses and start-up businesses just yesterday.
Of course, conservatives don't do "targeted" since they don't believe in that kind of fiscal policy manipulation as a matter of ideology. They haven't yet adapted to the new post-Bush "Reaganomics is a failure" post-apocalyptic world that we live in nowadays, where banks are socialized and stimulus packages are the new black.
Posted by: NonyNony on October 14, 2008 at 1:32 PM | PERMALINK
Tomorrow night:
"My friends, I don't know what any of this means either, but my advisors assure me that its a sound policy for these difficult times. THAT ONE might understand his proposals, but do YOU?"
Posted by: Saint Zak on October 14, 2008 at 1:36 PM | PERMALINK
Raising the loss deduction will only exacerbate the selling on Wall St., the last thing the market needs. If I sell now I only get 3,000 dollar deduction and a carry forward loss for anything above. However, if I were to get $15,000 deduction now, I'd surely sell and lock in the %15,000 loss. Then I'd buy a like security and get roughly $5,000 for nothing. So stupid...
Posted by: JM on October 14, 2008 at 1:40 PM | PERMALINK
Wow. This is quite a stunning proposal. Just blows our side right out of the water. I'm sure it will quickly lead to the great comeback mclame and his press friends want.
Posted by: Bulworth on October 14, 2008 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK
A show of hands, if you please: How many Americans who pay capital-gains taxes are at risk of homelessness, or hunger, or bankruptcy due to a medical condition for which they have no insurance?
Anybody?
Anybody at all?
No one?
*note to self: Zero is the easiest number in the Universe to count to.
Okay then, let's try this one: How many Americans who are at risk of homelessness, or hunger, or bankruptcy due to a medical condition for which they have no insurance, would like to beat John McCain silly with the jawbone of an ass?
*Note to self: Dammit---I can't count that high.
Would half of you please put your hands down?---and is there a professor of theoretical mathematics in the house?
The moral of this one-act play is: John McCain is so "toast" that he makes burnt toast look like raw bread-dough....
Posted by: Steve W. on October 14, 2008 at 1:43 PM | PERMALINK
October 13, 2008
"We do not have any immediate plans to announce any policy proposals outside of the proposals that John McCain has announced, and the certain proposals that would result as economic news continues to come our way," said a campaign spokesman, Tucker Bounds.
I wonder if anyone will press him on what specific economic news came our way since yesterday that this is a response to.
Posted by: noncarborundum on October 14, 2008 at 1:45 PM | PERMALINK
Give Republicans credit: at least they're consistent. Capital gains tax cuts fix everything: bad economic problems, overspending, economic growth issues, burnt toast, bad starting pitching, out-of-tune pianos, annoying neighbors, accumulation of dust...
Posted by: noplot on October 14, 2008 at 1:49 PM | PERMALINK
Aw, gee, there ya go again, gettin' all critical like some Harvard perfesser or somethin', when all John McCain's doin' is tryin' to give hard-workin' middle-Americans like Todd 'n' me some relief from big government takin' all our hard-earned money away 'n' tellin' us what to do with it.
'Cuz it's all about jobs 'n' puttin' Americans back to work, so they can save for their family's future, not the same ol' librul ideas from the past.
Posted by: bleh on October 14, 2008 at 1:51 PM | PERMALINK
"Homeowner Resurgence Plan"??? - which one of the 4 tax cuts (401k withdrawal, capital gains, stock losses and unemployment) have ANYTHING to do with being a "Homeowner"????
Posted by: Ohioan on October 14, 2008 at 1:56 PM | PERMALINK
McInane might just as well have come out and said his plan was to put a chicken in every pot.
Posted by: on October 14, 2008 at 1:58 PM | PERMALINK
Tax Cuts - Apply directly to the wealthy.
Tax Cuts - Apply directly to the wealthy.
Tax Cuts - Apply directly to the wealthy.
Posted by: Joseph Palmer on October 14, 2008 at 2:12 PM | PERMALINK
I don't think taxing unemployment benefits is that bad of policy.
I was unemployed for a couple months this year, and got my unemployment checks. It was quite nice not to have my savings go down significantly during that time and to feel like I could look around for the best job rather than just taking the first (and the first company I could have gone with actually went out of business a couple months ago as I thought was a reasonable possiblity). Then I got another job, a quite well payed job. I don't see why my unemployment income should not be taxed normally, in effect at my marginal rate. If, on the other hand, I had been unable to get a job for a long time or were paid less to begin with my marginal rate would be a lot lower.
So it works as sort of a claw back on unemployment benefits for higher income people who are only briefly unemployed.
Extending unemployment benefits, or providing better support for health care costs to the unemployed would do a lot more for people in really bad situations without giving help to people like me who didn't need anything more from the system than what I got.
Posted by: JeffF on October 14, 2008 at 2:14 PM | PERMALINK
NonyNony at 1:32 p.m. - The "market" in most cases isn't investing. It's gambling. Unless you are directly capitalizing a business, you're just trading existing shares back and forth in the stock market. You haven't invested in anything. There's no justification for special treatment of gains from these transactions. Nothing new has been created.
Posted by: hark on October 14, 2008 at 2:15 PM | PERMALINK
Isn't Graham his closest advisor?!?! I think its pretty clear now. Mavericks don't do policy well. In fact, most of the mavericks I've worked with have been fired abrubtly for doing something stupid. Remind you of anyone?
Posted by: John Henry on October 14, 2008 at 2:19 PM | PERMALINK
Taxing unemployment is not absurd. I speak as on who was once collecting unemployment checks while my sugar daddy husband was supporting me.
Posted by: Bostonian in Brooklyn on October 14, 2008 at 2:20 PM | PERMALINK
In case you didn't click through, here is a gem:
The Wonk Room’s James Kvaal noted the impact of cutting capital gains:
Households earning less than $50,000 a year collected a mere 2.5 percent of capital gains in 2005, according to the Tax Policy Center. Families earning more than $1 million a year collected 59 percent of capital gains. Moreover, most middle-class families with capital gains hold their investments in retirement accounts shielded against capital gains taxes.
For a candidate already promising $175 billion tax cut for corporations, including $4 billion for oil companies, handing out a new tax cut for millionaires and calling it a “Pension And Family Security” plan is oddly appropriate.
"Tax cut and debit spend", that's the repig way. Mortgage our future, place the burden on our our children, and lead the country further into financial ruin. Thanks McSame.
Posted by: Lipstick on a Repiglican on October 14, 2008 at 2:21 PM | PERMALINK
Nice plan for that 20% of the people who have the high incomes. The rest of us I guess are just going to be "trickled down" upon some more.
Posted by: Ed on October 14, 2008 at 2:25 PM | PERMALINK
McCain wants to end tax on unemployment benefits. How Populist of him!! For those of you who are too young to remember, two of the planks of Ronald Reagan's trickle down tax cuts was to start counting unemployment benefits as taxable income and end the tax deduction for consumer interest expenses. Now, if McCain would just reject the rest of the old Reagan ideas we could assume that he has learned something from recent history. Not likely; he's admitted that economics isn't his strong suit and he's surrounded himself with a bunch of trickle down economic advisers. More tax cuts for the wealthy and the corporations is the last thing this economy needs.
Posted by: sparky on October 14, 2008 at 2:33 PM | PERMALINK
The "market" in most cases isn't investing. It's gambling.
There is no meaningful difference between the two.
Unless you are directly capitalizing a business, you're just trading existing shares back and forth in the stock market. You haven't invested in anything.
Yes, you are trading existing shares. But, yes, you have invested in something.
There's no justification for special treatment of gains from these transactions.
And there is no special treatment of gains from those transactions. There is special treatment of long-term capital gains (short-term capital gains are taxed as normal income) which (though, quite arguably, not in the exact manner currently done) is justifiable on the basis that, in a progressive tax system, treating a gain that took several years to acheive as equivalent to one acheived within the current year unfairly moves people up tax brackets unjustifiably.
Now, IMO, it would be simpler and more fair just to tax everything as normal income but allow people to recognize income for tax purposes in anticipation of the actual realization of those income (mostly useful for capital gains, but could be useful in other cases, as well), and even in certain circumstances to allow people to delay recognition of income.
Done right, this avoids the problem of unfairly taxing a one-time capital gain earned over many years as current-year regular income, while not providing a preferential tax treatment for people who have enough investments to "roll them" on a schedule which lets most of their income be derived from long-term capital gains.
But, without that in place, there is pretty clearly a justification for special tax treatment for long-term capital gains, and it has nothing to do with whether investment (in the stocks, bonds, houses, artworks, or anything else that can produce capital gains when sold) "creates" anything. That's a distraction.
Posted by: cmdicely on October 14, 2008 at 2:42 PM | PERMALINK
This is all about the Wednesday debate. He can spew some bromides about helping Seniors (aka Florida) and then this plan will go down the memory hole too.
Posted by: BombIranForChrist on October 14, 2008 at 3:06 PM | PERMALINK
Let's not let this 10% limit on the tax on IRA/401(k) withdrawals escape notice. It's a massive gift to people with large retirement funds, and it's hard to see how it will provide any serious benefit.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov on October 14, 2008 at 3:13 PM | PERMALINK
This doesn't make sense to me - in the short term, both of these reward selling of securities, so presumably they would result in further stock market declines.
Posted by: chrs green on October 14, 2008 at 5:22 PM | PERMALINK
"Let's give the conservatives what they really want: eliminate the capital gains tax.
Then, of course, tax all capital gains as regular income.
It's a fair compromise. Money that makes money should be taxed at the same rate as work that makes money
Posted by: martin on October 14, 2008
Dems like that approach.
What I'm wondering is whether Obama can turn the 'no capital gains tax' into landing a knockout blow on McCain.
Do Americans REALLY REALLY like rich Wall Streeters so much that reducing THEIR taxes should be considered?
Wouldn't Americans rather prefer tossing those people into a big dark hole?
Yeah, remove the tax cut and tax capital gains the same as any other income. That's one 'regulation' Americans might approve.
Posted by: MarkH on October 14, 2008 at 5:48 PM | PERMALINK
It's just embarrassing how long this took McCain's team to put together and it really says nothing.
http://www.entertonement.com/collections/4700/John-McCain%27s-New-Economic-Plan
Posted by: BaxterJ on October 14, 2008 at 8:06 PM | PERMALINK