October 15, 2008
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A FINANCIAL EDGE.... There are a variety of factors that have helped Barack Obama build a solid lead in the presidential race, but it's worth remembering that voters are moving in the Democrat's direction in the midst of a very serious ad blitz.
The Obama campaign has not yet released its fundraising totals from September, but I'm very curious because efforts like these aren't cheap.
In the first three weeks of September, Barack Obama ran 1,342 television commercials in the Washington media market that reaches heavily populated and contested Northern Virginia.
According to The Nielsen Company, in the same period and market, John McCain aired just eight commercials on broadcast stations.
Similar disparities are playing out across the country as the Illinois Democrat flexes his financial muscle to outspend McCain and the Republican National Committee on television advertisements, in some cases by ratios of as much as 8-to-1.
The Competitive Media Analysis Group's Evan Tracey noted, "Obama is spending $3.5 million a day on television ads. If he does that through Election Day, it will be more than McCain got from the government for his entire general election campaign."
Republicans are trying to keep up, using a McCain-Feingold campaign finance law loophole to combine the efforts of the McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee, but it's had limited success thus far, and the RNC's contribution to the coordinated campaign activities don't necessarily erase Obama's financial edge.
What's more, Chris Cillizza noted that Obama is specifically ramping up his ad buys in "red" states: "In Florida, for example, Obama is now spending just shy of $5 million a week on television -- a $1.8 million (!) increase from just a week ago. The same pattern is apparent in Indiana (a $900,000 increase in ad spending over the past week), Missouri ($1.4 million increase) and Virginia ($2.3 million increase)."
When Obama announced that he would forgo public financing for the general election, this is exactly what he had in mind.
—Steve Benen 10:05 AM
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Republicans are trying to keep up, using a the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law loophole to combine the efforts of the McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee, but it's had limited success thus far, and the RNC's contribution to the coordinated campaign activities don't necessarily erase Obama's financial edge.
And every dollar the RNC spends to shore up McCain's doomed bid for the Presidency is a dollar they don't spend on Congressional races, and vice versa.
Posted by: Gregory on October 15, 2008 at 10:12 AM | PERMALINK
So it's become obvious even to liberal pundits - Obama is trying to buy the presidency with money from George Soros and his plutocrat friends.
Posted by: Al on October 15, 2008 at 10:14 AM | PERMALINK
Because Obama has been able to run so many TV spots, Joe Scarborough is stating on his show that Barack is trying to Buy the election!
Posted by: Angellight on October 15, 2008 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK
LOL. The Soros boogie man rears its ugly head. I haven't heard that one for awhile. Rush must have mentioned it today.
Posted by: vrk on October 15, 2008 at 10:16 AM | PERMALINK
And every dollar the RNC spends to shore up McCain's doomed bid for the Presidency is a dollar they don't spend on Congressional races, and vice versa.
True, but because of public financing restrictions (and loopholes), McCain is laundering donations through the RNC and other PAC's. I think people should be just a bit outraged that tax dollars are partially paying for his campaign. In this case, it truly is welfare for the wealthy.
Posted by: Danp on October 15, 2008 at 10:19 AM | PERMALINK
Trolls,
When a politician runs a campaign with money from millions of small donors, his money advantage is feature of our democracy, not a bug.
Posted by: airron on October 15, 2008 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK
airron beat me to the punch there. I'm quite pleased that he's doing this and that the vast majority of his donations are small donations from people who believe in his cause, rather than efforts by a well funded lobby group.
Posted by: Diogenes on October 15, 2008 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK
Here in Missouri there are plenty of ads from both. I think the paid media is canceling out, and what's moving the poll numbers is the economy and the candidates.
With that in mind, tonight's debate will be McCain's last time in front of the voters in an extended format. If he's going to move the numbers back his way, this is pretty much his last shot.
Posted by: jimBOB on October 15, 2008 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK
Al, I love hearing you nut jobs whine wwwwaaaaaahhhhhhh wwwwaaaahhhhhh!!!!!!
Thanks! Keep it up!
Posted by: kevin k on October 15, 2008 at 10:25 AM | PERMALINK
Blue meanies
This is no time to get lazy!
In the accompanying video Plouffe claims that the NRA has pledged to run 10 million dollars worth of ads the last few weeks. Time for us to get out our wallets-cum-shotguns out and match these guys pellet for pellet:
https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/finalmatch10?match_campaign_
Posted by: koreyel on October 15, 2008 at 10:28 AM | PERMALINK
McCain is laundering donations through the RNC
Yeah, but -- the valid point about McCain's hypocracy on his signature issue, campaign finance reform, aside -- it doesn't matter. Again, Obama's money advantage is crushing McCain, and the money McCain is laundering through the RNC doesn't go where the RNC needs it, in Congressional races.
The picture there is so bad for the GOP that Mitch McConnell's seat looks like a toss-up (and havign grown up in kentucky, I'd be delighted to see the SOB get the boot). If the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate, Reid's acquiencence to McConnell's obstruction tactics won't matter; they won't be able to obstruct.
Republicans know the American people agree withthe Democratic agenda; their only hope has been to see that the Demorats don't get to implement it. Come January 2009, that may no longer be the case. And I for one would like to see Obama take advantage with an FDR-style "100 Days," ramming popular, needed programs -- SCHIP, infrastructure, finance reform, etc. -- thru Congress.
If the GOP wants to oppose an agenda that benefits the majority of Americans, let them run on a platform of repealing it, rather than obstructing it from being adopted. How has that worked for them on, say, Social Security?
Posted by: Gregory on October 15, 2008 at 10:33 AM | PERMALINK
Diogenes -- I think the small contributions are about half (which is still great).
Posted by: Upper West on October 15, 2008 at 10:34 AM | PERMALINK
Al: "So it's become obvious even to liberal pundits - Obama is trying to buy the presidency with money from George Soros and his plutocrat friends."
Leave Al alone, gang. He's just projecting republican tactics and values onto Obama. He can't help it. It's the only form of campaign he's ever been influenced by, so he can't recognize a real, grassroots effort when he sees it. He's never seen a responsible candidate campaign with integrity before. It just doesn't happen over on his side.
He doesn't realize that, just because Obama's message and strategy have given him more advertising buying power doesn't mean that what he's doing is a form of corruption. It's like, just because Al is typing, doesn't mean he's presenting a reasoned argument.
"When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail." Let's all help Al put the hammer down.
"Al, no one's going to hurt you. You're OK, Al. Take a deep breath. That's it..."
Posted by: chrenson on October 15, 2008 at 10:35 AM | PERMALINK
I try to catch the first 15 minutes of the Morning JoKe Show on MSNBC each morning. That consistently provides a preview of the republican talking points for the day.
This morning Joe Scarborough whined heavily about how unfair it is that Obama is outspending the republicans. That was the most enjoyable 5 minutes of his show for a long while!
That the rethugs are whining about this is absolutely fantastic. I love that the American public (who is providing half? of the contributions to Obama) can provide a larger voice than the corporate sponsors of the repugnican party.
This advantages Obama during the campaign, but it also provides a basis for Obama to work for the American public after becoming president. It is wonderful that an American president may not be in debt and owned solely by the wealthy and corporate interests.
God Bless Obama...
Posted by: SadOldVet on October 15, 2008 at 10:50 AM | PERMALINK
Ok I admit I was wrong. A coule of months ago I criticized Obama's rope-a-dope stragety saying he needed to spend more on advertising and go harder after McCain instead of holding back. Turns out McCain drained his coffers in Aug and Sept and now Obama is ratcheting up the pressure with a massive media blitz.
It will be intersting to see what he has in mind for that 1/2 hour of airtime he purchased on Oct 29th. And I wonder if McCain or the RNC will try to counter it.
Posted by: thorin-1 on October 15, 2008 at 10:57 AM | PERMALINK
MSNBC just "reported" they're expecting to hear that Obama raised close to $100 million this past month
I love the smell of napalm in the morning!
Posted by: MissMudd on October 15, 2008 at 11:01 AM | PERMALINK
All true, true about the money and ad spending and all. And some say (no straw dog) it's the economy tanking that's killing McCain but I'd like to point out something that hasn't been mentioned. McCain's likability factor has gone way down, especially relative to Obama and that's important. Obama is a calm, cool, winner type and McBush, well, he just isn't likable.
Posted by: Frak on October 15, 2008 at 11:07 AM | PERMALINK
miss mudd,
i have it from a good source that 100 million may be an underestimate. the reason why they are avoiding putting out the fundraising numbers from sept is that they are afraid people will stop donating when they hear it. it is that huge. not only do they have the donations from the normal pool of they had prior to the republican convention, but the number of new donees since sarah palin is astronomical.
Posted by: nerpzilla on October 15, 2008 at 11:10 AM | PERMALINK
You can definitely tell Obama's raised his advertisement numbers in "Hoosierland" as it seems one of his ads runs every 5-10 minutes on the channel I watch. For every one McCain/RNC commercial, it seems like I see five Obama commercials.
And it seems to be working as the numbers show Obama in a tie or narrow lead here. Maybe Hoosiers are starting to see the light (wishful thinking considering we still elect idiots like Mitch Daniels, Dan Burton and Mike Pence).
Posted by: Jim H from Indiana on October 15, 2008 at 11:13 AM | PERMALINK
As if the Republicans wouldn't do the same if they had the dough. I have donated, and I will keep donating until these Republicans realise we're mad as hell and we're not going to take it any more.
Posted by: John R on October 15, 2008 at 11:17 AM | PERMALINK
Not only is he airing more ads, but they're also more effective than the sleazy ads McCain runs. It amazes me that the McCain people are still courting the fringe whackos so hard. They already have those votes. I don't see anything that McCain is doing that will convert independents and undecideds (whoever they are).
They truly seem to believe that a majority of Americans are radical neocon conservatives.
I say to Obama: spend it all in the next 3 weeks!
Posted by: on October 15, 2008 at 11:18 AM | PERMALINK
Obama has started running ads on local stations here in Oklahoma!!! I never thought I'd see that. I haven't seen any McCain commercials yet.
OKLAHOMA!!
Posted by: HopefulOkie on October 15, 2008 at 11:31 AM | PERMALINK
I hear you, HopefulOkie. It's much the same story across the border in Arkansas. A month ago all the political ads were McCain, McCain, McCain, but now I see *no* McCain ads and a steady mix of three very positive, well-done Obama ads.
Posted by: brainchild on October 15, 2008 at 12:04 PM | PERMALINK
I have a contrarian POV: I'd like to see Obama withhold all of his commercials from the Corp Media outlets for one week! What would that cost them? Would they up their attacks on Obama, or provide him "free" time for press conferences and news releases? Let McCain destroy himself with his sleazy ads with no pushback from Obama except what he gets for free. I think he can afford this experiment, and it would shift the dialogue to real news instead of the "paid for" news.
Just a thought.
I am committed to Oneness through Justice and Transformation
peace,
st john
Posted by: st john on October 15, 2008 at 12:20 PM | PERMALINK
I don't watch a whole lot of TV, but I am exposed to political ads on Sundays, before and after NFL games. The first few weeks of the season here in Minnesota, there were lots of McCain ads and no Obama ads; since the beginning of October, it's been 90% Obama.
Posted by: mjm on October 15, 2008 at 12:21 PM | PERMALINK
Bear in mind that a Democratic candidate for the presidency has to way outspend a Republican candidate just to keep the media field level. The Republican candidate has advocates on air 24/7/365 on Fox News Channel, AM Radio, and Christian Broadcasting.
Posted by: sally on October 15, 2008 at 1:17 PM | PERMALINK
This is definitely true. I live in an area that gets ads for several markets - west fla, al, ms and Obama ads are like a barrage on the television. I must have seen at least 15 ads yesterday on everything from local channels to TNT, TBS, Comedy Central, Discovery - it really is a saturation attack.
Posted by: OCD on October 15, 2008 at 1:21 PM | PERMALINK
Is the latest troll Al as in Alfred or AI as in a bot spouting what Rush O'Hannity tells him to?
Whichever... Mr. AI, a "plutocrat" is someone who rules by right of his wealth. Even assuming you're right, can you explain to me how it's OBAMA who is backed by such people or is it merely a ludicrous Rovian "paint your enemy with your own flaws" effort?
Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on October 15, 2008 at 2:27 PM | PERMALINK
I've seen Obama ads running regularly on South Carolina televison. This has to be a first....
Granted, the markey I'm in probably overlaps with NC but, a national democratic candidate
advertising in the SC ?? He must have money to burn.
Posted by: Stephen on October 15, 2008 at 2:52 PM | PERMALINK