October 16, 2008
THEY WERE LAUGHING AT HIM, NOT WITH HIM.... Time's Amy Sullivan has a fascinating report on a focus group in Denver last night, hosted by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, which offers a helpful glimpse at how some voters perceived the final presidential debate.
In politics it is generally not considered a good sign when voters are laughing at you, not with you. And by the end of the third and last presidential debate, the undecided voters who had gathered in Denver for Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg's focus group were "audibly snickering" at John McCain's grimaces, eye-bulging, and repeated references to "Joe the Plumber."
The group of 50 uncommitted voters should have at least been receptive to McCain -- Republicans and Independents outnumbered Democrats in the group by almost 4 to 1, and they started the evening with much warmer responses to McCain than to his Democratic opponent, Barack Obama. But by the time it was all over, so few of them had declared their support for McCain that there weren't enough for Greenberg to separate them into a post-debate focus group. Meanwhile, the Obama supporters had to assemble in two different rooms to keep their discussion groups manageable.
In a room in a swing state where Dems were heavily outnumbered, that's not exactly what the McCain campaign was hoping for in the final debate of the season.
As for Obama, he continued to win over undecided voters on critical questions: Does he have what it takes to be president? A 38/50 split flipped to 56/34. Can voters trust him to make the right decisions? Obama rose from 30/50 to 48/40. Is he best equipped to handle the economic crisis? Voters split evenly between the two candidates at the start preferred Obama by 30 points by the end of the night.
Perhaps most significant was Obama's success in reassuring voters that he understands who they are and what matters to them. He went from a 16-point to a 24-point advantage on "Is he on your side?" and made similar gains on the question of whether he would "bring the right kind of change," from a 18 to 38-point advantage. And while the two candidates were even on the question of "who shares your values?" at the beginning of the debate, Obama held a 24-point lead by the end.
McCain entered the night badly in need of a big win. If this focus group is any indication, McCain instead suffered another big setback.
—Steve Benen 7:10 AM
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IMHO, first debate a draw; second, the edge to obama; and third a runaway obama express.
mobama, as in momentum + obama = game over.
Posted by: entheo on October 16, 2008 at 7:15 AM | PERMALINK
Greenberg must have found a bunch of recently-registered acornistas.
Posted by: Al on October 16, 2008 at 7:35 AM | PERMALINK
I actually felt embarrassed for him. It was almost hard to watch.
Posted by: Saint Zak on October 16, 2008 at 7:35 AM | PERMALINK
It wasn't hard for ME to watch. I enjoyed every single minute. I think that Obama pretty much put ol' John the Whiner away.
It was a clear win for Obama.
Posted by: POed Lib on October 16, 2008 at 7:39 AM | PERMALINK
Has anyone watched the video of Joe the Plummer being interviewed? There is something not quite right. "Obama tap dances better than Sammy Davis jr." and he's pretty dodgy about his own income.
A plant? he definitely could be. But my impression is that he has a definite pro-McCain/anti-Obama agenda that goes beyong taxes.
Posted by: Saint Zak on October 16, 2008 at 7:46 AM | PERMALINK
I'm an Obama supporter, and last night I slipped into overconfidence. Now, in the clear light of day (and a cup of coffee under my belt) it seems that McCain lost his last big chance. But John McCain is erratic, grasping, and ENTITLED. I think I'd like to brace myself -- big McNastiness may be coming...
Posted by: Mark S. on October 16, 2008 at 7:46 AM | PERMALINK
The media seems to want to spin this as a McCain win. Will objective evidence to the contrary spoil their narrative?
Naaaaaahhhhhh......
Posted by: Gregory on October 16, 2008 at 7:56 AM | PERMALINK
But my impression is that he (Joe the Plumber) has a definite pro-McCain/anti-Obama agenda that goes beyong taxes. - Saint Zak
One of the hosts on CBS's "The Early Show" said he called Obama's tax plan "communist". So I think we'll give you an "A" for intuition.
Posted by: Danp on October 16, 2008 at 7:58 AM | PERMALINK
Prior to every verbal attack, McCain telegraphed that goofy pop eyed grin. It suggested that McCain is really in this solely for the thrill of the fight. Neither the thrill of victory nor the agony of defeat will matter that much to the histrionic man in need of constant stimulation. McCain will take his fight to wherever he can find it. The senate will suffice as he continues his fight with Obama.
Posted by: lou on October 16, 2008 at 8:02 AM | PERMALINK
anti-Obama agenda that goes beyond taxes. - Saint Zak
Oh. Beyond taxes. Need. More. Sleep.
Posted by: Danp on October 16, 2008 at 8:06 AM | PERMALINK
They're only LAUGHING because they're scared sh-tless of him and Scarah being the LEADERS of our FREE WORLD!!!
Posted by: Dancer on October 16, 2008 at 8:10 AM | PERMALINK
Because it happens so rarely, it's incredibly satisfying to watch karma at work giving someone exactly what they deserve. McCain has lived well based on the popular perception that he's a "maverick". Now he will have to suffer as a new popular perception, that he is a cranky, doddering, confused old man, takes hold.
With luck, we'll see karma take a swing at Dubya, too. Hopefully he will invest his millions with the same acumen that drove the country to the brink of bankruptcy and he'll end up living with Laura in a double-wide, riding his bike because his car was repossessed.
Posted by: SteveT on October 16, 2008 at 8:11 AM | PERMALINK
We now know why McCain is a craps player and not a poker player. He has no poker face.
Could you imagine him negotiating with world leaders?
Hopefully that will never happen.
Posted by: Wayne on October 16, 2008 at 8:13 AM | PERMALINK
There were so many moments in that debate where I went waa...ht? that I am suprised the MSM pundits didn't ump on it. The "Acorn Voter Fraud" is going to be the end of democracy as we know it. Right - when all those Micky Mouse characters show up at the polls. Another one "I'm going to buid 40 nuclear plants right away" Uhhh it takes 10- 15 years from design to permitting to construction to bring a nuclear plant online, if and that is a big IF , you can find a community that will let you build one. He will be in a nursing home with his teeth in a glass long before that ever happens.
Posted by: John R on October 16, 2008 at 8:15 AM | PERMALINK
Joe seems awfully media savvy for a plumber. I have a feeling there's lots more to come on Joe the Plumber.
Posted by: Pug on October 16, 2008 at 8:21 AM | PERMALINK
"Joe the plumber" was a plant; a "reverse Willie Horton" signal to that portion of the McCain fan-base that McCain himself defended last night as "hard-working patriots," and would likely fit nicely in an 1860s-era rocking chair, sipping a mint julep and watching the breeze blow through the oak-leaves in front of his mansion---while his employees don their butternut coats and march off to their doom under the breeze-fluttered Stars and Bars.
Posted by: Steve W. on October 16, 2008 at 8:43 AM | PERMALINK
MOAR LIBRUL PROPERGANDER!!!! JON MCKANE HAS OSAMA RITE WHER HE WANTS HIM!!!!
Posted by: ANGRY TOWNHALL MEETING DUDE on October 16, 2008 at 8:44 AM | PERMALINK
My favorite laugh for the night; the completely random way John jammed his talking points into answers, which were already wandering through streams of rightwing buzzwords. That didn't make him look like a ranting geezer, much. Contrast that with Obama's crisp responses it was one of the most lop-sided victories I've ever witnessed.
Headlines read Obama was forced to defend himself from McCain's attacks. Whether or not it was consciously arranged by Obama and his team I think the effect of him letting the attacks come from McCain and calmly deflecting them was to give every old white worried voter a vicarious grilling of the upstart generation whose time has come. Only a dead-ender can't see after last night that the old generation driven deep into fundamentalism has outlived their ideas. Obama is a great representative of the new.
Posted by: dennisS on October 16, 2008 at 8:56 AM | PERMALINK
For me, the whole campaign was summarized in their closing statements when McCain rambled on about himself and his feelings, while Obama focused on Americans and our needs.
Posted by: Stacy on October 16, 2008 at 8:58 AM | PERMALINK
I was surprised at how well Schieffer did his job. Good questions and he skillfully cut off tired rehashes of ancient cliched arguments and ignored the stupid strawmen McCain threw out to cover his retreats. Schieffer has been in the tank for the Republican party for over a decade. I now count him as one of their finally disgusted fellow travellers.
Posted by: dennisS on October 16, 2008 at 9:08 AM | PERMALINK
Actually McShame did not do so bad last night. I thought he sounded - besides the sighs and bug eyes - actually tough, thorough and quite good at taking Obama off his game, going offensive and putting Pbama on the defensive. And Obama was BORING and stuck to his stump speeches - alittle attack from Obama or swipes at McShames 13 houses or gazillion dollars in the bank would have put him in better standing and highlighted that McShame has NO CLUES about the middle class or poorer levels of our world.
But alas I do not think McCain did well enough to change the overall dynamics of this election. He solidified his base but probably can not swing over many converts that he probably needs.
So temper yourselves in thinking this was a clear Obama win - not hardly. More a draw or McCain probably pulled off a bit of a win.
Posted by: wom67 on October 16, 2008 at 9:17 AM | PERMALINK
Anyone notice, according to McCain & his ilk, it is now unacceptable, bad, and evil to be "eloquent". How dare Obama speak clearly and expressively!
Like the word "liberal", "eloquent" has now become something dark & foreboding. Aw shucks, why can't we all speak like Palin?
Posted by: whichwitch on October 16, 2008 at 9:39 AM | PERMALINK
Is he best equipped to handle the economic crisis? Voters split evenly between the two candidates at the start preferred Obama by 30 points by the end of the night.
Holy crap ...
Unless Obama gets caught raping a child while eating a live puppy at the same time he's punching an old lady in the face and performing a late-term abortion on Palin's kid, it's over. Done. Finished. Fin.
OFF TOPIC:
Good Moron America had Joe the Plumber on this morning -- he said he made nowhere near $250K, but hopes to some day, and that Obama's plan is socialist.
Because, you know, Obama's going to raise taxes on income JtP doesn't earn by a whopping three percent, so, you know, that makes him equal to Lenin.
Anyway, thought people may want to head over to ABC's site and check it out (it's blocked here at work, so no linky. Sorry.)
Posted by: Mark D on October 16, 2008 at 9:58 AM | PERMALINK
Sure. Real polls show McCain getting the short end at the debate. But it shows what sort frequent Drudge and other online trolling markets, to see McCain ahead in such polls. Go there and do what you can to at least show them something from sensible people.
Posted by: Neil B on October 16, 2008 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK
Socialism means 'the common good', social and economic systems that are fair and equitable for the whole of the society as opposed to capitalism and total fucking greed ........ boy isn't that a sin ? really horrible isn't it .. and this plumber joy asshole is a total fucking plant .. which is exactly why the dim wit / asshole/ repiglican can sit there and say, despite the fact that obama's tax plan actually benefits him, and mcevil's doesn't, that obama is a socialist .. fucking incredible .. and of course this pig is a plant .. which is exactly why mcevil was PREPARED before the debate to focus on this guy who was in a rope line of obama's, and why he is on the tv this am, why is was talked about by all the repiglican pundits .. it was all set up ....
Posted by: stormskies on October 16, 2008 at 10:17 AM | PERMALINK
We now know why McCain is a craps player and not a poker player. He has no poker face.
Could you imagine him negotiating with world leaders?
mr. shortstop and I noted that playing poker with Obama would be a nightmare. Playing with McCain...kaching! God, he's hopeless.
Posted by: shortstop on October 16, 2008 at 11:07 AM | PERMALINK
Do NOT let up.
I have visions of Osama Bin Laden releasing a tape praising Allah that his fellow Muslim Barack Obama will become the new caliph of the United States.
Plan ahead for how we can get people not to fall for the foolishness again like they did in 2004.
Transparent reverse psychology should NOT be so easy to pull off. I am very sober about the possibility that substantial numbers will be utterly bereft of their common sense if this happens.
THINK, dummies. If Osama said Kerry was terrific and Kerry LOST. Would he be dumb enough to praise the guy he wanted this time? Do you think Osama wouldn't LOVE 4 more years of crippling quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan (hopefully Iran Pakistan and Syria too?)
CAN the American public be persuaded to ignore someone who wants us all to suffer for what he sees as our moral depravity and blasphemy?
We should be ready to TRY.
Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on October 16, 2008 at 1:24 PM | PERMALINK