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October 16, 2008
Elsewhere
The NYT has a set of op-eds on how the market meltdown looked from Europe. It's worth a read. Ireland: "The old saw "safe as houses" no longer cuts. And money in the bank is no longer "money in the bank." We did not think the system could fail, but late last month government officials, in a dawn announcement, told us they had been compelled to give a 400-billion-euro guarantee to the banks, which were running out of money. It has been estimated that if the banks have to call in that guarantee, it will bankrupt the country for the next 37 years. And it will get worse."
Iceland:
"ICELANDERS have woken up in a new novel by Franz Kafka, where everybody is guilty by default. One by one, the mighty banks have been seized by the government, and Icelanders, aghast, have been told that each and every one of us owes millions of dollars -- to whom, we don't know. The earnest faces of the politicians, of bankers and tycoons almost crying, give us the final touch of the surreal. The situation is comparable only with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the 9/11 attacks -- something final and yet beyond one's individual grasp has happened. (...)
Suddenly, there are lines in the bank for foreign currencies, and there is a limit on how much we can get -- overseas banks are refusing to accept our freefalling currency, the krona. One of my students, studying in Spain, can't get money from Iceland for her rent. Importers and exporters can't get currency to conduct business. Icelandic tourists abroad have problems getting cash from A.T.M.'s. The British government has applied terrorist laws to freeze the assets of an Icelandic bank; the list goes on as if it were a script for the nightmare of globalization.
We thought we had friends, in Europe and in the United States. They were sought in the hour of need and found to be busy with their own problems; only the Scandinavians were prepared to extend a helping hand, and then, all of a sudden, Russia -- somehow the world has changed."
And then there's Pakistan (not from the same series):
"The Zardari government is sailing into a perfect storm of political instability and economic turmoil. The economy is in a virtual freefall. International agencies have slashed its credit ratings. The rupee has hit an all-time low against the dollar. Capital flight is believed to be continuing despite efforts to stop it. Suicide attacks and kidnappings have led to the repatriation of foreign skilled labor. The bourses are a blood bath as foreign investors continue to pull out. Unable to pay its bills, the government has taken to issuing I.O.U.s to private- and public-sector companies. Overall inflation is at a punishing 30-year high. Power shortages, the worst in at least 15 years, are disrupting businesses already hurt by higher input costs. To top it off, much-needed funding and easier terms promised by Pakistan's allies and multilateral donor agencies have yet to materialize. Foreign-exchange reserves, worth about two months of imports, are fast running out—and with the worsening economic situation, so is public patience.
For its part, the Zardari-led coalition government, already besieged by political rivals and insurgent groups, has had to take unpopular measures to prop up the economy. It has raised taxes, upsetting the business community. It has trimmed government spending, prompting bureaucrats to grumble. It has increased tariffs on power, angering consumers and businesses already fed up with outages. And it has phased out subsidies on imported fuel, leading to price increases in everything from bus rides to cooking oil and prompting small, periodic protests."
Inflation in Pakistan is running around 24%. Per capita income was around $1,000 before this crisis hit; it's a lot less in the rural areas. China has just assured Pakistan that it will not allow the country to default on its loans; this is important because Pakistan has been hemorrhaging hard currency, and it wasn't clear how it was going to manage otherwise. But Pakistanis are in for a world of hurt regardless.
It's going to be tough here, but we will not get the worst of it.
—Hilzoy 11:14 PM
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Isn't it wonderful China has all that money to, in essence, guarantee Pakistan's foreign debt? Do you kind of think Beijing will want to have a word with Islamabad about cracking down on al-Qaeda and Taliban in the North West Frontier? And, do you supposed Beijing's renbimbi might make Pakistan listen?
Posted by: SocraticGadfly on October 17, 2008 at 12:19 AM | PERMALINK
Where am I going and what am I doing in this hand basket?
Posted by: Dr. Morpheus on October 17, 2008 at 12:19 AM | PERMALINK
China and Russia are helping to bail out our allies. Wonderful.
How can American primacy have been completely destroyed in only eight years? Eight years.
In a way, this is welcome news, because I was beginning to feel a little complacent in the idea of Obama winning in a landslide. We all have to work our butts off to make sure Republicans don't have the opportunity to finish off the rest of the nation as we know it.
Posted by: Taritac on October 17, 2008 at 12:25 AM | PERMALINK
BTW, shouldn't greasing the runners of our economic slide to hell be added to the long list of Crimes Against Humanity that the Bush administration should be charge and convicted with?
When can we have our Judgment at Nuremberg moment? Because frankly, George and his fellow travelers have done about as much harm to this nation and the world as any other monster in history.
It may only be a few months before the end of his term, but we won't be in as good a position to impeach/indict George, Dick, Lisa, Rumsfeld, and the rest. They'll be high tailing it to their Bolivian fortresses to live the rest of their lives in luxury stolen by spilling the blood of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people.
And sticking a monkey wrench into the US economy changing it from the most powerful and dynamic economy in history reducing it to some crippled mockery of what it once was.
If a man steals our children and grandchildren's well-being isn't that a crime? A crime against humanty?
My god, what have they wrought?
Posted by: Dr. Morpheus on October 17, 2008 at 12:32 AM | PERMALINK
Maybe that is a good thing - China and Russia spending their money supporting collapsing 'allies'... As the Washington Post editorial endorsing Obama mentioned: The Republicans deserve to spend a few years in the political wilderness ...
America as a country needs to spend a few years in the wilderness as well, and tend to its own business/economy instead of meddling in other countries' affairs.
Posted by: bruno on October 17, 2008 at 12:33 AM | PERMALINK
Dr Morpheus said:
They'll be high tailing it to their Bolivian fortresses to live the rest of their lives in luxury stolen by spilling the blood of hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people.
That wouldn't be such a bad idea. (not the spilling blood part) I'd love it if they all moved out of this country.
It would mean they could never come back to America, because they 'might' be arrested at the border to face their trials.
Hopefully a lot of Republicans will think about moving out of the country as well. Of course that is not going to happen, because they wouldn't know what to do in a foreign country that doesn't fit their fantasy of what it 'ought' to be.
Of course if they all happen to move to Texas and Utah, it wouldn't be bad either, keeps them contained where the only harm they'll do is to themselves.
Posted by: bruno on October 17, 2008 at 12:39 AM | PERMALINK
about my post above.... No offense to progressives, liberals and moderates living in Texas and/or Utah.
Posted by: bruno on October 17, 2008 at 12:43 AM | PERMALINK
Uhh, TAritac? Pakistan isn’t our ally, really. They’re still leery we will use them like a douche bag, and the nuke supplies treaty with India doesn’t help. Stuff like this is why I, like better known and knowledgeable bloggers like Juan Cole, have blogged repeatedly that Obama is (yes, allowing for political pandering) an idiot for proposing more troops in Afghanistan with the refusal to cooperate from Pakistan. The rising instability just underscores that.
And, unilateral intervention? Pakistan North West Frontier is about as rugged as Afghanistan. And, if Beijing is guaranteeing Pakistan’s foreign loans, they’ll want a say about that anyway.
Posted by: SocraticGadfly on October 17, 2008 at 1:22 AM | PERMALINK
Damn that Barack Obama and the Democrats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: ThatGuy on October 17, 2008 at 1:24 AM | PERMALINK
SocraticGadfly,
Yes, I know that Pakistan is an ally in name only. I erred on the side of rhetorical expediency over accuracy. But your point is noted.
I am not sure that Obama's approach is the best one either, but I trust him to get the best advice available and change tactics if something fails. And at least he's articulated a strategy, something that John I-Know-How-To-Get-Them McCain has yet to do.
Posted by: Taritac on October 17, 2008 at 1:35 AM | PERMALINK
Everything that is occurring on the global stage today suggests that we are in the early stages of a second Great Depression, and everything that the industrialized nations are doing---force-feeding hard currencies into the patient; currencies that have no tangible back, but only "the faith" of the governments issuing them---risks a scenario whereby the hyperinflation we've seen in countries such as Haiti and Zimbabwe are merely a hint of what the world will experience.
Take oil, for example. Everyone needs it, and the slowing economies are depressing the price that its producers are getting for it. What happens when the cartels finally decide that they're tired of watching their portfolios run dry while their "black gold" leaves their export terminals at fire-sale prices? Seven words here:
OPEC hoards oil like GE hoards cash
I'm willing to play poker with this idea. I'm willing to bet the farm that a lot of the people on this blog---just as in the American business community---don't remember the effects of the '73 Oil Embargo. I'm willing to go the distance, right to the tip of the weakest branch on the highest limb of the most rotted-out tree ever imagined in a game of five-card cutthroat on the theory that very few people have actually taken the time to think out the scenario of what happens to this country if its access to imported oil, imported petrochemicals, and imported products that require oil and petrochemicals for manufacture and transport---all come to a full stop.
And here's why:
Plastics. Polymers. Petrochemicals used in agriculture, commerce, and industry at the point of manufacture are either produced outside the United States, or the raw materials needed for their production are produced outside the United States.
So---you want to fold and walk away from the table---or are you feeling lucky?
Posted by: Steve W. on October 17, 2008 at 5:54 AM | PERMALINK
Gee, this economic thing might have political impacts, in a scary destabilizing sort of way, around the globe.
It's really kind of a shame that US financial standing, military capacity and credibility has been so severely compromised over the last eight years.
We're screwed.
Posted by: BroD on October 17, 2008 at 7:53 AM | PERMALINK
Yet, in general the American media (notwithstanding NYT) seems too preoccupied with our own concerns to bother with the big picture. The next president will be inheriting not just a faltering U.S. economy but an entire globalized planet on the brink. We absolutely can not afford a McCain/Palin presidency at this dire hour. I don't even need to list the reasons why.
Posted by: Jim on October 17, 2008 at 9:25 AM | PERMALINK
Look what happens when you let minorities start buying houses. Lordy, lordy. Obama sure has screwed us all up.
Posted by: GOPer troll on October 17, 2008 at 9:56 AM | PERMALINK
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