October 20, 2008
THE WRONG IDEA AT THE WRONG TIME.... At last week's presidential debate, John McCain's prescription for dealing with a financial crisis was painfully backwards. He vowed to slash federal spending ("with a hatchet" and with a "freeze") and balance the biggest budget deficits in American history in just four years.
He made similar arguments on the stump after the debate, arguing the other day that the government ought to "live on a budget, just like you do."
McCain's approach seems to mirror the pundits' conventional wisdom -- in tough times, the government should tighten its belt and cut back on investments that might spur economic growth. The "neo-Hooverite premise" dominates much of the media discourse.
But it's still wrong.
[E]xtra spending, a sore point in normal times, has been widely accepted on both sides of the political aisle as necessary to salvage the banking system and avert another Great Depression.
"Right now would not be the time to balance the budget," said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan Washington group that normally pushes the opposite message.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, of course, generally argues in support of a balanced budget, but even it realizes there are circumstances to consider here.
And yet, McCain has faced minimal resistance on this. Even the Obama campaign seems reluctant to note that McCain has his economics backwards, probably out of fear that the media's conventional wisdom -- that it's better to cut spending and worry about debt when the economy is falling apart -- is widely accepted by voters. But that doesn't make McCain any less wrong.
The New York Times report added, "[I]f recent history repeats itself, the deficit is likely to be an issue again when the economy recovers."
Fine. Great. No problem. I'm all for it. But until then, can we not pretend that McCain's plan makes sense?
—Steve Benen 10:25 AM
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I'd just love to send a huge FU to all those who turned a blind eye (or cheered) as Shrub turned a record surplus into record deficits.
Posted by: John McCain: Worse than Bush on October 20, 2008 at 10:33 AM | PERMALINK
The real issue here is the expense of the Great American Hegemony Project, which may not be permissibly discussed by anyone in the traditional media, and people who would speak of this are not permitted a forum, pretty much anywhere.
Posted by: jayackroyd on October 20, 2008 at 10:37 AM | PERMALINK
The prudent course for the government is to increase spending and/or lower taxes during bad times, and decrease spending and/or raise taxes during good times. Unfortunately, starting with Reagan, the latter has become politically infeasible (not if politicians want to get re-elected).
Posted by: Daryl McCullough on October 20, 2008 at 10:48 AM | PERMALINK
Well, maybe WE can point out that it makes no sense, but the Obama campaign most definitely cannot.
First, it's counterintuitive. If you know the economic history of the Depression, or you recognize the name Keynes, then you might understand the logic of deficit spending during economic recession, but a lot of people don't have that background, and even those that did at the time of the Depression went with Hooverism anyway. The last two weeks of a presidential campaign are not the time to try to educate swing voters in historical macroeconomics.
And second, it would play right into the Republicans' "tax-and-spend" and "redistribute your wealth" attacks. The fact that it would be beneficial for everyone (much like, say, giving a trillion dollars to Wall Street) would get lost in the noise.
Right now, I think the only people who should be getting hammered with this are the MSM, just so they don't start braying about balanced budgets as soon as Obama is inaugurated.
Posted by: bleh on October 20, 2008 at 10:55 AM | PERMALINK
To be fair to McCain here, it should be noted that he is a Republican and thus can be expected to do exactly the opposite of what he promises.
Remember when George the Lesser was against nation building?
Posted by: DR on October 20, 2008 at 11:04 AM | PERMALINK
Even the Obama campaign seems reluctant to note that McCain has his economics backwards, probably out of fear that the media's conventional wisdom -- that it's better to cut spending and worry about debt when the economy is falling apart -- is widely accepted by voters
This is exactly right.
We are a nation living on borrowed fantasies about borrowing. With just days to go, it would be fatal for Barack to attempt to explain this. Best to steer clear and hope someone else points out that McCain's idea is akin to sending a legless man to a square dance...
Posted by: koreyel on October 20, 2008 at 11:06 AM | PERMALINK
This is the perfect opportunity to launch an Apollo-like program to develop alternative energy and to combat global warming.
But I'm betting we do the exact opposite: put Obama's far lesser and inadequate program on the shelf.
If he wins.
Posted by: hark on October 20, 2008 at 11:16 AM | PERMALINK
Bleh is basically right. There isn't a time to teach Keynesian economics -- or even remind people that, before the "Reagan Counter-Revolution" even Nixon said "we are all Keynesians now."
In fact, FDR used Hoover's failure to balance the budget against him in 1932, one of the bigger ironies in American politics.
Of course, Obama will have to raise taxes and raise the deficit, and hopefully he won't be too anxious to create a 'simpler' tax code, since many people need the deductions in there for charitable giving and other purposes -- and the charities and educational and artistic endeavors they support (museums, libraries) are important to the nation as a whole and to his ideas on education.
Posted by: Prup (aka Jim Benton) on October 20, 2008 at 11:26 AM | PERMALINK
Who would ever argue that it's always a mistake for businesses to borrow money? And we actually encourage people to borrow money to buy houses, becausee it's a good investment for the future. And why is it that Washington pretends that individuals are expected to live within their budget, when we KNOW that most Americans are heavy in debt?
The truth is that borrowing money for future investments can be a GREAT strategy, as long as there is strategy to it. If it's simply about borrowing money to toss into the coffers of Republican donors, that's obviously a mistake. But if the money is well spent, it's the smartest thing we can do.
Posted by: Doctor Biobrain on October 20, 2008 at 11:35 AM | PERMALINK
I don't take a back seat to anybody when it comes to my support for Democrats and liberal thinking, but I must conclude that in addition to this being the wrong time to slash the Federal budget, it is probably the wrong time to raise taxes on anybody. Obama should spend money on clean energy, and infrastructure. Once the current recession passes, then I have no problem lowering middle class taxes and raising taxes on the elite. I won't fight too hard if he wants to lower middle class taxes now.
We have to jump start the economy. We also have to stop being a consumption society and start being a production society again. We have to develop an economy and a society that is sustainable over the long run. This is a time when wisdom should trump ideology.
Posted by: Ron Byers on October 20, 2008 at 11:39 AM | PERMALINK
There may be another reason Obama doesn't want to confront conventional ignorance at this point, which is his exhortation to tighten our belts in response to having lived beyond our means in recent years. If he's asking us to tighten our belts it may look strange to ask the government to loosen its.
Posted by: Goldilocks on October 20, 2008 at 11:48 AM | PERMALINK
Once the current recession passes, then I have no problem lowering middle class taxes and raising taxes on the elite.
But Ron, what sense does that make? The whole reason they'd be taxed a bunch is because they made so much money. It's not as if these are businss owners who are struggling to meet payroll or cover expenses. These are the people who are rolling in the dough even in bad times. Otherwise, we wouldn't be taxing them so much.
And raising their tax rate a few points isn't going to cause them to stop investing or change their plans significantly. If anything, it'll make them need to do more, in order to compensate for the amount they're losing in extra taxes. Besides, I don't see how ideology plays into this at all. This is an economic argument, not one of stubborn liberalism. Please refrain from insulting us in this way. You can pretend that only you know the wise policies, but I happen to see this as a difference in opinion.
Posted by: Doctor Biobrain on October 20, 2008 at 12:24 PM | PERMALINK
The NY Times reports this morning that Ben Bernanke also supports a fiscal stimulus (in support of Obama's statements and in opposition to McCain's) to help pull us out of our recession. Well done.
I'm as big a deficit hawk as they come (street cred...I'm one of the Perot 19), but we also have to set priorities. A stimulus is a short-term necessity and balancing the budget (and paying down the debt) is a long-term must.
Posted by: CJ on October 20, 2008 at 1:44 PM | PERMALINK
I love how politicians talk about how most Americans have to live within a budget. Are these the same Americans who are up to their eyeballs in debt? Who are maxed out on credit cards? Who have no savings?
Posted by: Speed on October 20, 2008 at 2:29 PM | PERMALINK