October 21, 2008
FAVORABILITY.... Horse-race polls are obviously interesting right now, but the latest New York Times/CBS News poll asked voters about their impressions of the candidates, and the results have to be encouraging to Democrats. Indeed, Republican efforts to smear Obama haven't done much -- except undermine the public's regard for McCain.
As voters have gotten to know Senator Barack Obama, they have warmed up to him, with more than half, 53 percent, now saying they have a favorable impression of him and 33 percent saying they have an unfavorable view. But as voters have gotten to know Senator John McCain, they have not warmed, with only 36 percent of voters saying they view him favorably while 45 percent view him unfavorably.
Even voters who are planning to vote for Mr. McCain say their enthusiasm has waned. In New York Times and CBS News polls conducted with the same respondents before the first presidential debate and again after the last debate, Mr. McCain made no progress in appealing to voters on a personal level, and he and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, had alienated some voters.
To put this in context, Obama's favorability numbers, which have increased 10 points over the last month, are now "the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years of Times/CBS polls."
On the other side of the aisle, McCain's unfavorable rating has grown 10 points since September, to 45%, while Sarah Palin's negatives are up 12 points, to 41%.
Palin's negative rating "is the highest for a vice-presidential candidate as measured by The Times and CBS News" -- even worse than Dan Quayle's.
The Times report added that many of those who've lost regard for McCain cited his negative campaigning, which is bolstered by a new CNN poll showing Americans unimpressed with McCain's relentlessly negative attacks.
I guess this means Obama's winning the "have a beer with" question?
—Steve Benen 9:25 AM
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"with only 36 percent of voters saying they view him favorably..."
Which means he's still pulling some (confused?) voters who don't view him favorably.
Posted by: Speed on October 21, 2008 at 9:43 AM | PERMALINK
TPM has video from McCain's interview this morning on CBS. The guy is not doing himself any favors defending his robocalls. He actually said "Listen to me, I'm the candidate!" Jesus.
Posted by: Jake on October 21, 2008 at 9:44 AM | PERMALINK
Would it even be safe to have a few beers with McCain? I can hear it now, "Hey, you lookin' at my wife?" Ten minutes later you're explaining yourself to an officer and McCain is in the background yelling "The terrorist started it, he's a terrorist I'm tellin' ya!"
Posted by: steve duncan on October 21, 2008 at 9:48 AM | PERMALINK
TPM has video from McCain's interview this morning on CBS.
And he keeps raving about Ayers despite all the poll evidence showing that he only hurts himself, not Obama, with that crap. What a stupid, stupid man McCain is.
Posted by: Steve LaBonne on October 21, 2008 at 9:53 AM | PERMALINK
I think this shows that the only thing that renders negative campaigning ineffective is a greater fear. In this case, we're all so freaked out about our economic futures that we look past McCain's nutty attacks. They seem small and irrelevant. In more normal times however, I think these attacks would be working, as they have during most every campaign over the last few decades. Don't write off negative campaigning and fear-mongering...it's been shown to work. We all respond to fear; it's just this time we're afraid of something bigger and McCain's fear-peddling can't find traction.
Posted by: jrw on October 21, 2008 at 10:01 AM | PERMALINK
What was most likely at the start of the presidential race is overwhelmingly clear today: The Republicans' selfish, stupid, malicious misgovernment of the United States handed the next election to the Democrats. As anyone could see from as early as 2004, Republican success in an honest, open 2008 election would depend on massive reversals of policy and the reining in of thousands of nasty minions--wasn't going to happen. Plan B would most likely be voter suppression and election tampering.
Obama's advantages over McCain are objectively overwhelming. If we have an honest, open election, he will trounce his opponent and Democrats will ride his coattails into state & local office. The polls tell us that a minority of the voters will vote for McCain. At this point, the honest horse-race question is: Will McCain gain or fade between now and his failure on election day?
Imagine the difference in any large or small town in the United States (whether you believe it to be the real America or not) once Obama is president and Bush and McCain are not. Most people will actually be pleased to see him. This is a difference we already know. The Republicans are fighting for the principle that a select minority should rule the country for another four years.
Posted by: Boolaboola on October 21, 2008 at 10:03 AM | PERMALINK
I think McCain/Palin exist in an alternate universe from thinking, salient and compassionate people.
In their Universe, God has a plan, because they sure don't seem to have one. When you catch a glimpse of the rivalesque rallies, it's as if we are seeing into a bizarre gathering of blathering idiots, rallied to shout and condemn Obama.
Give me substance, John. Not frothing points.
Posted by: Tom Nicholson on October 21, 2008 at 10:06 AM | PERMALINK
I guess this means Obama's winning the "have a beer with" question?
Have a beer with? If this goes as we hope, I'll buy him every drink he wants for the rest of his life.
Posted by: DonBoy on October 21, 2008 at 10:14 AM | PERMALINK
All of us (and yes, I mean to include myself) who called for Obama to "get aggressive" have to order up a little crow.
It's becoming more and more obvious that the high road was the right road to take this year, and that he's using just the right amount of comeback.
The Obama campaign just gets more and more impressive as the days roll by.
Posted by: Cal Gal on October 21, 2008 at 10:38 AM | PERMALINK
And he keeps raving about Ayers despite
despite saying he doesn't care about some "washed up" terrorist. The man really should make up his mind or continue to allow his campaign to make it up for him.
Posted by: ckelly on October 21, 2008 at 10:47 AM | PERMALINK
I remember when Reagan was running and most said they didn't agree with his policy, but they found him a nice guy ('Uncle Ronnie'), so he won.
I never understood it--I found his continuous cowboy smile utterly superficial.
Perhaps what folks are also responding to is that Obama is just much more genuine overall--he doesn't speak down, doesn't lie, doesn't patronize. Maybe folks finally appreciate this.
Obama's demeanor and approach in it's entirety stands in such stark contrast to the bold face lies, the erratic behavior, saying one thing and doing another, the negativity, the smears, the creepy smile and laugh, the angry penetrating glares, the stiffness.
We see this with Cindy McCain vs. Michelle Obama as well.
I mean, not only would I rather have a drink or meal with the Obamas, over the McCains but I'd rather have them as my neighbors as well.
Posted by: iseerussiafromyhouse on October 21, 2008 at 10:49 AM | PERMALINK
Are you better off having a beer with McCain now than a beer with the McCain of four years ago?
Posted by: MillionthMonkey on October 21, 2008 at 11:34 AM | PERMALINK
I am asking myself two questions.
Were the rest of the Republicans who ran in the primaries as bad as John McCain? Rudy Guiliani was pretty grim but the rest of them seemed better than McCain. It really looks like McCain got the free ride with the press.
The other question, and I have no idea what the answer might be, but I am wondering how well Obama would be doing against another non-Guiliani Republican canditate? John McCain really is a train wreck. I want to believe that Obama could beat anyone because he really has the skills but McCain is almost handing it to him.
Posted by: Kathie on October 21, 2008 at 11:44 AM | PERMALINK
McCain is just preparing for his October surprise: he kicks Palin in favor of Romney, drops his insistence on high-end tax cuts, halts the negative ads and robocalls, fires his entire campaign staff, and goes on television to apologize to the American people for having allowed himself to become captive to the Rove/Knownothing faction of his party. It's his Confederate-flag-apology moment writ large. His demonstration of independence resurrects his straight-talking maverick image, his poll numbers shoot up and the centrist and disaffected Republican voters who used to constitute his base return to him in droves.
Not that any of that will happen, but by now it's practically his only hope.
Posted by: noncarborundum on October 21, 2008 at 11:51 AM | PERMALINK
Would it even be safe to have a few beers with McCain? I can hear it now, "Hey, you lookin' at my wife?"
Then why did he offer to pimp her out to a striptease contest at that bike rally?
Posted by: Gregory on October 21, 2008 at 11:53 AM | PERMALINK
I'm with DonBoy on this one, I wouldn't even want to be in the same bar with him.
Having a beer with Obama? Hmmmm.... That is not the picture that comes to mind. More like "sitting on my front porch on a warm summer day, drinking iced tea and talking about the corn crop" or some other highly pressing issue... as long as it wasn't politics.
Posted by: on October 21, 2008 at 12:46 PM | PERMALINK
McCain still has the crotchety bitter old white men, who complain about everything while knowing little about anything, vote locked up. I'm concerned.
Posted by: Michael7843853 on October 21, 2008 at 1:32 PM | PERMALINK
So we can expect a full steam ahead approach in the smears department.
If it don't make sense, do it!
Posted by: ThatGuy on October 21, 2008 at 1:54 PM | PERMALINK
We don't have much to choose from, but as far as the negative info given to the citizens of the good old USA is a POSITIVE thing. This being due to the fact that O is a Muslim to the core, wants to change american's to muslims and has past and present tie't to terriosts. He has doomed himself in his own books, say he hates the white man! Should a president "hate" a race? NO! he voted in 2007 to allow college grants to non americans! Hello! they should be legal to obtain any benefits from the goverment. Obama has given millions to his best friend a terriorts who wants to over throw Kenya. This man has been jailed but refuse's to stop trying, O back's him all the way.
In his book, he made it clear that when push comes to shove, he chooses the Muslim way. The Muslim religion states that it is not a sin to lie in order to benefit the Muslims. And there's so much more about O that people have ignored and they don't do their homework. I don't care what color he is, it's his afiliations that is a great concern to me and should be a number 1 concern for the USA. The Bible, in the last book Revelations states what will happen in the end times, alot of what it says has already happended, and there's alot more negative to come, espcially if O is elected, we are doomed. It's only a matter of time before he stops being a President and becomes a RULER OF MUSLIM AND ALL OF US WILL BE FORCED TO BE A MUSLIM. JAILED AND OR DIE! That's a fact! This is the most crucial election of all time! we just cannot vote in a man that is actually a terriost himself, in wolf's clothing. Read read and read and be an informed voter. Your freedom is AT RISK! really. And that's a fact.
Posted by: SANDRA LEWIS on October 21, 2008 at 1:59 PM | PERMALINK
***UNPUBLISHED***
I see that all these O people are just plan ignorant! If you really knew obama you would know that he is a terrorist and he will take your freedom away at his first opportuntiy, He wants us to be a muslim communist country, he hates whites, he fincially backs terriost to this day and will continnue to do so. He said he would never take money from private companies but he did just that to run millions of negative commercials. It's dire that you people know what you are getting yourself into! don't hide your heads in the sand. This man is a fake, he's the devil in sheeps clothing. He stated it in his book, push to shove he will choose Muslim. He hates whites! The muslim religion states that it's ok to lie in order to further the Muslim cause. Please, you people make me ill! In a time of urgent elections you want to choose a backseat terroist. He refuses to salute the American flag or wear a flag pin, until the final debate. I was laughing so hard at the debate, I wondered how long he had to practice those facial expressions, they were so fake you could see right though him. When he answered McCains comment about his affilatons McCains eye's popped open so wide, everyone that has researched this man know's he lying. Why don't you! You just wait and I'll be here saing "I told you so! that is if we still have freedom of speech at that point. Don't vote him in and take away our rights! that's just plain stupid. There are so many ignorant people out there. If you have ever been in the business of customer service, you know just how many people don't even have a clue about their basic bills and due dates. They come accross less than educated, just plain dumb. And these dumb one's that don't read up on these issue's will be majority of the votes. That's a scary thought. His whole family has been into radical issue's for his whole life and everything that the American way is agains. His first experience with a terror acctake will more than likely be of his own planing. He wants to rule not preside. We dont' have much to choose from, but over my dead body would I vote for a fake with motives not in our best interest but in the bringing down of america and taking away our freedom. Most people just listen to him and don't research him. If you want the total story of his life and who he cozy up's with let me know and I will relist it, because I'm sure you didn't read it the 1st time or you wouldn't have the letter O on your forehead
Posted by: SANDRA LEWIS on October 21, 2008 at 2:18 PM | PERMALINK
Sandra lewis, @ 13:59
Your "logic" and your "facts" are as solid as your spelling and your grammar. I'd suggest competing for a Darwin award.
Posted by: exlibra on October 21, 2008 at 2:27 PM | PERMALINK
Jesus...are those posts from a real nut, a jerk masquerading as a nut, or pieces of performance art? Scarily, I think they're from a real nut, yikes. Can we get a restraining order?
Posted by: jrw on October 21, 2008 at 3:54 PM | PERMALINK