October 21, 2008
THE MONEY ISN'T THERE.... The severity of the financial crisis has affected the presidential campaign in obvious ways -- as the McCain campaign has publicly acknowledged, the more Americans focus on the economy, the better it is for Obama -- but it's let's not overlook another less obvious implication.
Remember all of those right-wing 527s that were going overwhelm the political landscape? As it happens, the conservative financiers have lost a lot of money lately.
"After the [GOP] convention, things looked good," said Phil Musser, a Republican fundraising consultant. "Major donors interested in issue advocacy were tuned in, political juices were flowing, polling looked good, and then, blammo! Most donors lost 20 or 30 percent of their net worth in eight days. With few exceptions, that pretty well shut down the money discussion for a lot of folks."
Four years ago, groups operating outside the party structure invested more than $130 million in television commercials, often carrying the kind of negative messages that the candidates themselves wished to avoid. This year, total spending by such groups is at about $17 million so far, with no single organization playing a dominant role, according to Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group.
There were reports earlier this year, for example, that Freedom's Watch was prepared to amass a quarter-billion dollar budget for the 2008 campaigns. Billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson was expected to help bankroll the operation -- that is, before he saw "$4 billion of his personal fortune evaporate as a result of the slumping national economy, and that was before the slow-motion stock market crash."
On the other hand, as Michael Crowley noted, there's the outside support Democrats are receiving:
The slowdown in giving appears to have had a disproportionate impact on Republicans. Obama holds an enormous money advantage in the closing weeks of the campaign. His ads have been bolstered by mail and phone-bank efforts largely financed by labor unions. The AFL-CIO alone has directed more than $50 million to persuade its members to support Obama and other Democrats.
—Steve Benen 10:00 AM
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Trickle up economics trumps trickle down economics
Posted by: mickslam on October 21, 2008 at 10:05 AM | PERMALINK
Gee, it couldn't have happened to nicer people.. A big hockey-mom sigh..
Posted by: The Galloping Trollop on October 21, 2008 at 10:09 AM | PERMALINK
I hear the Russians have money for McCain.
Posted by: John McCain: Worse than Bush on October 21, 2008 at 10:09 AM | PERMALINK
OMG! That is funny!
Posted by: SP on October 21, 2008 at 10:13 AM | PERMALINK
This avowed atheist is beginning to consider the possibility that his core belief may not be quite correct.
Posted by: gregor on October 21, 2008 at 10:14 AM | PERMALINK
I guess in this economy it is easier for a million middle class people to find $50 to send to Obama than it is for 1 rich person to find $50,000,000 to fund a 527.
Of course it is also possible that a lot of rich Republican types don't want any more of Bush style governance. They might secretly be hoping for Obama style competence.
Posted by: Ron Byers on October 21, 2008 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK
Of course the GOP will ignore the lesson here, but still. This is proof positive that big money politics are inherently unstable. When you have the kind of bubble that produces such a massive unbalance of wealth, it only lasts until the bubble bursts. Then, suddenly, the advantage turns to the small donor.
And Obama has been slowly but surely building his base of small supporters for two years now. Now it is poised to come crashing down on the GOP and their plutocratic ways like a tidal wave.
Obama really did jump in to the national scene at exactly the right time.
Posted by: Shade Tail on October 21, 2008 at 10:17 AM | PERMALINK
I wonder if the Republican-based 527's funding dried up because the donors lost so much money & they felt the need to cut back? Or do these donors silently understand that McCain's economic plan hurts the rest of the nation so much, it will affect their bottom line. Even with their generous McCain tax breaks, if all other business grinds to a halt, if no one is buying anything, what good are they? Better to quietly hope Obama gets elected and publicly bitch about it to save face with your neocon country club cronies, then do ANYTHING that will increase McCain's chances of winning.
Posted by: slappy magoo on October 21, 2008 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK
First wave shock is to the financiers-- like the Russian oligarchs who have lost billions.
The hit on the working classes, from unemployment, lower bonuses etc. is yet to come.
Students can't get their loans. People are being laid off. Union membership decimated. 401ks devalued.
But most of that hasn't hit home... yet.
Posted by: valuethinker on October 21, 2008 at 10:21 AM | PERMALINK
If they had a candidate they really liked, the money would be there.
Posted by: styron on October 21, 2008 at 10:22 AM | PERMALINK
So the people that spent lots and lots of money to get George W Bush elected have now found themselves without cash to spare because his incompetence has tanked their wealth?
Hm. I think there's a lesson in this about something, but I'm not sure the billionaires will ever learn it. It makes me laugh, though.
Posted by: NonyNony on October 21, 2008 at 10:23 AM | PERMALINK
Who would want to keep putting money on a losing cause?
Even a speech writer is afraid of John's smile.
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/mccain_speechwriter_trying
Is America really gonna put John and Saree in da whitehouse?
Something tells me the race may tighten but basically John's smile just isn't something America can stomach now.
Posted by: Tom Nicholson on October 21, 2008 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK
It's still called "trickle-down economics;" it's just that the demolition of amassed Wall Street wealth hasn't "trickled down" to the little people yet, because they didn't buy into Wall Street---and the belief that such trivial things as rent, heat, and groceries is such a lame excuse, now isn't it? It's the little people's fault that we're in this mess, dammit!
*snark off*
On a more gleeful note, it's nice to see these fools getting their comeuppance after all the years of their "Marie Antoinette Economics...."
Posted by: Steve W. on October 21, 2008 at 10:26 AM | PERMALINK
Another Obama campaign advantage is every time S. Palin opens her mouth more people donate to the Obam/Biden campaign.
Posted by: mlJohnston on October 21, 2008 at 10:26 AM | PERMALINK
'Billionaire casino mogul Sheldon Adelson was expected to help bankroll the operation -- that is, before he saw "$4 billion of his personal fortune evaporate as a result of the slumping national economy, and that was BEFORE the slow-motion stock market crash."'
Emphasis mine.
The very definition of poetic justice.
Posted by: A pitbull would make a better VP, too. That's TWO things. on October 21, 2008 at 10:29 AM | PERMALINK
How much can Obama funnel to competative down-ticket races?
Posted by: Ben on October 21, 2008 at 10:29 AM | PERMALINK
How much can Obama funnel to competitive down-ticket races?
Posted by: Ben on October 21, 2008 at 10:29 AM | PERMALINK
I've been saying this all along!
FYI, the Swiftboaters were mainly financed by REAL ESTATE Moguls who are now losing their shirts.
The RW's fav sugar daddy is Dick Scaife, who is going through a divorce and all of his income comes from stock trusts.
This economic implosion has done one very good thing and that's crimp the extraneous spending of the RW noise machine. I would not be surprised to hear soon about RW "tink" tanks going belly up because of loss of funding.
Posted by: Former Dan on October 21, 2008 at 10:33 AM | PERMALINK
Spend decades complaining about the capital gains tax rate of 28%, and then 15%, then wake up one day and find out your political philosophy has given you a 30% tax on your net worth. Ouch!
Then go right back to complaining about a 3% marginal rate on your high income.
Posted by: tomj on October 21, 2008 at 10:42 AM | PERMALINK
Those poor rich folks need another tax cut so they can afford to buy another election.
Posted by: AJB on October 21, 2008 at 10:51 AM | PERMALINK
I had a conversation with an old friend from Florida last night. he's not so much a pro McCain guy as he is anti-Obama. As the conversation shifted towards Obama's record shattering $150 million take in September, he started blathering McCains' new talking point, "Obama is buying the election". I was so glad he brought that up because I have been chomping at the bit to have that discussion.
I presented him the facts:
Obama opted out of public financing for several reasons, a few of which would be 1) to limit the amount of political payback he'd have to give for big money contributions and 2) to not limit his campaign in the amount of donations he can receive, an effort to counterbalance the 527's that the republicans would most assuredly unleash.
McCain (who's 'maverick' status is due largely in part to his work on the McCain/Feingold campaign finance reform bill) opted for public financing, went broke, used the public funds he would receive as collateral, then after the convention, opted back into public financing.
Beyond that, I simply stated that Obama is not 'buying' the election, rather, the American public is, via millions of ordinary Americans giving Obama contributions of $5, $25, $50.
He didn't have much to say after that. Well, besides Obama is a socialist and a Muslim and went to a Madrassa, and is a terrorist sympathizer....
Posted by: citizen_pain on October 21, 2008 at 11:00 AM | PERMALINK
"He didn't have much to say after that. Well, besides Obama is a socialist and a Muslim and went to a Madrassa, and is a terrorist sympathizer...."
And, he's bu-lack! Eeeeh!
Posted by: The Galloping Trollop on October 21, 2008 at 11:40 AM | PERMALINK
Ah Whah! One can be wealthy and stupid--these financiers just never understood that about themselves. And they wanted more of the same?
Posted by: Sparko on October 21, 2008 at 11:41 AM | PERMALINK
The bipartisan bailout supported by most moderates and liberals has an unintended consequence of also saving the rich Republican assholes who have dragged American politics into the gutter.
Posted by: Brojo on October 21, 2008 at 11:42 AM | PERMALINK
And Sheldon Adelson will be announcing his endorsement of Barack Obama in 3...2...1...
Posted by: Curmudgeon on October 21, 2008 at 12:09 PM | PERMALINK
Crawling from the Ruble-the wreckage of GOP 527's
Posted by: RememberNovember on October 21, 2008 at 12:16 PM | PERMALINK
OBAMA MONEY
Uh... actually, talking with a few friends in mid-September all of us had (most, including myself) had never donated to a campaign before) each donated about $30-$50. I donated $30.
Given this rather unrepresentative sample, but realizing that we are fairly typical in that $30 is 4-5 days gas, or a weeks worth of food, I think the vast majority of Obama's September contributions are from people whose means are stretched but will not ever support a Republican again.
Posted by: Kurt on October 21, 2008 at 12:24 PM | PERMALINK
I had a conversation with an old friend from Florida last night. -citizen_pain
You need better old friends. If an old friend of mine had given me the Hanity run down, they'd be a former friend.
Posted by: doubtful on October 21, 2008 at 1:16 PM | PERMALINK
I think another issue here -- other than wealthy GOP donors losing their collective asses the past few weeks -- is that McCain just isn't all that popular in the GOP establishment, and with the base in particular.
McCain tried to appease the establishment by hiring all the former Bush folks. But they have yet to learn about the Internet, and have focused more on winning news cycles than actually making a case for their candidate.
So McCain tried to appease the base with Palin, but that drove the sane folks out of the party. Thus, we have endorsements from Powell and the other Obamacans.
Add these up, and mix in a total lack of wedge issues, and there just aren't enough people energized and excited enough to donate the money needed to run these things.
Of course, what they really need to do is make 527s illegal and go with straight and strict public financing for all elections. But that's for another thread ...
:-)
Posted by: Mark D on October 21, 2008 at 1:31 PM | PERMALINK
Wright, Wright, Wright!
You can't go Wrong with Wright!
Wright, Wright, Wright!
Your honor's out of sight!
Wright, Wright, Wright!
Your only chance is spite!
Wright, Wright, Wright!
You're still gonna lose this fight!
This election is the most important in the history of the republican party. If Americans don't prove we are more different than similar and more angry than peaceful; a country of "Real" and (?)unreal citizens, or "Pro-American" and "Anti-American," the republican party will be out of business. For these are the issues they have thrived on for more than one hundred years.
Posted by: TBone on October 21, 2008 at 2:07 PM | PERMALINK
About that Sheldon Adelson-- CNBC reported this afternoon that he has lost $27 Billion so far. From $30B down to $3B.
Posted by: Tommy Corn on October 21, 2008 at 4:31 PM | PERMALINK