Polls showing Obama up in Mizzou, Virginny, O-hi-o and New Hampshire--This is great news for McCain, it proves he isn't George Bush!

Just one day after Sarah Palin criticized the use of robocalls, she recorded her own robocall.

In Palin's defense, the Obama campaign made her record that robocall after they criticized the McCain health policy proposal.

Oh, I forgot North Carolina and Indiana--even better news for McCain. He's the anti-Bush, at least electorally speaking.

* And don't forget to keep an eye on that Senate race in Kentucky. According to SurveyUSA, it's tied.
—Steve Benen

I doubt Obama can spend to any great effect the enormous war chest he has between now and Nov. 4. Can he help any of these close races?

So with the Kentucky senate race, the question again comes down to: at this point, how much money can Obama funnel to key downticket races?

If anyone hasn't seen it, this is worth a read: http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/10/a-hard-look-at-reality-and-what-you-should-do/

Rasmussen generally polls favorably to Obama, so its Florida poll showing McCain up by a point should be of concern, indeed.

Jeff II, Obama can visit states with borderline Senate races, if he's also at least halfway competitive there himself. North Carolina springs immediately to mind.

He can also cut commercials appearing with the candidates.

And, he can, if he chooses, mention downballot races, at least in a general way, in his "infomercial" next week.

HOORAY for IN. I'm a hoosier, and I couldn't be happier about this news. I know it's early(ish) and still close, but at least he's competitive. My vote counts! At last!

The main thing Obama can do for down ticket races is get-out-the-vote drives.

Turnout is going to be key in a lot of these elections. And Obama's ground game is geared towards getting turnout.

This is the REAL benefit of the 50 state strategy. Down-ticket races MATTER. McCain will probably win Kentucky but it is possible if Obama can bring enough new Dems and Independents into the booth the Democrats could pick up a Senate Seat and maybe even a House seat or two. This effect is being duplicated across multiple states.

He's also benefiting them by forcing the Republican's to expand a lot of money they were going to use on down-ticket races to defend McCain's position in formally 'safe' states. A fact which is now annoying a lot of those down ticket Republican's who are not getting the party support they are use to.

SocraticGadfly. I disagree with your assessment that "Rasmussen generally polls favorably to Obama..." In fact, poll agregate sites (like fivethirtyeight,com and pollster.com) have done analysis of the major polling outfits and concluded that Rasmussen has a slight Republican house effect...about a point or two, if I remember correctly. So, when I view polls I usually add a point or two in Obama's favor for Rasmussen and subtract a point or two for PPP which has a clear Dem house effect.

"Anon," look at the other Rasmussen polls today, though, that Steve lists here.

Virginia, we even have a Survey USA with which to compare it.

And, Obama up three in NC seems on the high side. If you think Obama is up 5 pts in NC ...

It's difficult to believe that McCain is pulling out of Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico. That would essentially mean McCain was conceding the election. There is no way McCain can win without winning those states. I've heard that McCain thinks his chances are better in PA, but that just seems absurd to me. Pollster.com shows Obama up by 15 points in PA!

If Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, he wins. He can lose all the other swing states where's he's currently ahead--FL, VA, IN, OH, MO, and NC.

This close to the election it is becoming important to consider Get Out The Vote as a major resource expense. It isn't just advertising and travel to events any more.

Knowing which states are most important to focus on for GOTV and which states are close in the vote and which states have large electoral votes should narrow the field a bit without narrowing it so much that McCain could save himself a lot of money by also narrowing his efforts.

Hey Steve, when you list Iowa as a "red state"...what criteria are you considering, exactly? George W. Bush won the state in 2004 by 10,000 votes — out of 1.5 million cast. I'm not very good at math, but that looks to me like a margin of less than 1/100th of a percent. (Not exactly a mandate.) John Kerry in 2004 became the first Democratic Presidential candidate to lose in Iowa since Walter Mondale in 1984. The state has had Democratic governors three terms in a row and one Democratic U.S. Senator, Tom Harkin. (Republican Senator Chuck Grassley is widely expected to retire in 2010 and odds favor a Democratic replacement). Three of Iowa's five U.S. Representatives are Democrats. Democrats took control both houses of the state legislature in 2006.

I conceed that the state had a long history of Republicanism prior to 1984...but the history since then, especially at the presidential level, suggests that Iowa's natural inclination has flipped to favor Democrats.