But you forget Steve, it is very important to have at least an allusion to the race being very tight.

Makes for voting machine manipulation a lot easier.

Nate Silver had some pretty good analysis on problems with their (and others) likely voter models.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html

Pretty much all the trackers showed the race tightening for five or six days after the last debate, which confused the hell out of me, given that Obama seemed to win that one the most strongly of all their three debates.

I still haven't figured that one out, but the tightening seems to have gone away: even including the AP poll, Obama's up by >7% in the RCP average, which is about where he was before the last debate.

With sprinkles on top . . .

With sprinkles on top . . .

I hereby challenge the AP to provide empirical evidence that the UNited States of America is 44% "evangelical Christian."

And another point of contention should be this: Why is the AP partnering with the brainchild of Wilhelm Vershofen (GfK), a "public opinion company" that was formed in the early, heady days of the German Reich? Personally, I've little trust for anything that came into existence in the Nuremberg of 1934....

Evangelicals 44% of the electorate? Not just "practically" impossible, but completely impossible. I live in the heart of the Bible Belt, and even here, there are not that many Evangelicals. Consider also that in '04, they were fired up, and who is fired up now? Minorities and youth.

I too sispect this is a complete outlier.

So one of the evangelicals voted for Obama? And ALL of the others voted against McCain?

note this paragraph further down:

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a nationally representative random sample totaling 1,101 adults, including 800 deemed likely to vote. For the entire sample, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among all registered voters, including the likely voters.

There may be a temptation on the part of some to believe polls that offer favorable results, and ignore polls that don't. It's not an intellectually honest way of watching a campaign, but it's not uncommon. As such, there were more than a few conservatives who quickly seized on the AP poll as a very significant campaign development.

I trust the "as such" refers to the intellectual dishonesty of the modern conservative movement.

Of course it's not uncommon to adopt intellectually dishonest methods of rationalizing one's worldview with uncooperative objective reality, but for conservatives, it's essential. Intellectual dishonesty is the foundation of the modern conservative movement -- it can't survive without it.

Thank you Steve. I was beginning to wonder if I would need to leave the country after next month. Panic? Me? NEVER!

I read Nate Silver's analysis referenced above. The AP's "likely voter" model has giant holes. If you didn't vote in the last election you are not likely to vote, even if you have already voted. The polls "all voter" and "registered voter" numbers are closer to typical although the percentage of evangelicals is outside reality.

Notice, however, even if you assume 44% of America is made up of evangelicals Obama is still "ahead."

This poll has outlier written all over it. Of course, it is a good poll to use if you want to fire up your workers. I trust Obama campaign people are mentioning it to overconfident volunteers all across the country.

The evangelical weighting at 44 percent of sample explains the entire difference (and then some) between the AP poll and the Pew poll results (which had Obama up by 14, and only 21 percent white evangelicals in the sample).
The Pew poll had 67 percent of white evangelicals voting for McCain, and by implication only 30 percent of all others voting for McCain.

Applying the AP weights to the Pew data:
.44 * 67 + .56 * 30 = 46 percent for McCain;
for Obama the numbers are:
.44 * 24 + .56 * 60 = 44 percent for Obama.

This implies that using the Pew weights with the AP data would have resulted in an even larger Obama lead than Pew found.

Even setting aside the demographic inconsistencies in this poll, one important thing to note is that in all these polls, even in AP, McCain's number is constant around 42-44. So you can believe that number is probably accurate. And it's hard to get elected at 42-44 percent when you're a well-defined candidate and your campaign is 100% negative.

I suggest listening to the Democracy Now interview from yesterday with the journalist who talked to the whistleblower who's testimony has helped to bring charges against Mike COnnell.

If you're going to steal an election it's important to have the appearance of a close race and to give that appearance then you need someone like the AP who is in the tank for McCain to cook the books.

Again, the press is interested in one thing - a close race. A blowout doesn't sell hairspray. The easiest way to generate a real horse race is to screw with the polling internals. This example, however, is so over the top that even a lay person can see right through it.

The AP is going to have to do much better to get people to believe this is a close race.

I think at this point its just a media event. Its over. McCain and Palin seem gassed. The only thing showing up at their appearances are the bottom feeders. The Republican Party establishment by and large is sitting on its hands. The Republicans speaking out in support are the wack-jobs. The Party is cutting Bachmann loose. The leadership of the Republican Party is looking to a grim November 5th when they have to deal with a base that's become toxic. I think we're seeing the collapse of conservatism. It will have to ressusitate itself in a new form.

The media has hours to fill and papers to sell, so they'll force-fit this into their horse race story line, but its over.

That one is definitely an outlier. For one thing - we don't elect presidents by the popular vote, and for another thing, the respondents were self-odentified evangelicals, disproportionately from the old confederacy, where McCain is running strong. I could probably find plenty more wrong with the methodology too, if I could stop laughing long enough to seriously consider it.

People please get your heads out of your asses!

There are now nearly twice as many Evangelicals than there were 4 years ago, and they're ALL flocking to vote for the man they couldn't stand 4 years ago & who couldn't stand them. Why is this so hard to believe?

I actually welcome such poll numbers (provided they are outliers!). We need to remind everyone to run through the finish line here. We can't be counting our chickens. BTW, I'll be in downtown Indy today, hope to see some of you there.

I was startled by this as well until I went to the AP site. Turns out the number being bandied about here is for white voters making under 50K. If you look at overall numbers AP comes out at 47-37 Obama.

I guess this isn't Washinton Monthly's cup of tea but I'd be interested in close look at all the swing states and how they are tabulating votes. What machines they are using, where the data goes once it comes off the machines, how it gets compiled by the states in question.

Beyond desperation this could be why McCain is insisting on campaigning in places like Iowa and PA that look out of reach but may have been undermined from the get go through manipulation of the voting infrastructure. All McCain has to do is create his own reality with which to point to once the numbers have been jiggered in the wee hours of Nov 5th.

I would not be surprised if Evangelical turnout is the highest it has ever been, perhaps in the 90s. This is happening unobserved, in countless churches, because evangelicals are literally frightened of BHO and his crew. The youth vote will probably not turn out--"gee dude, we had a kegger Monday night, and I like missed the election." The evangelical vote will turn out en masse because of fear of BHO and because of the Palin factor.

Didn't that poll also show 18-24 year olds breaking for McCain? If so, then it's beyond questionable, it's laughable.

It's laughable that some on this blog are accusing Republicans of "manipulation" of votes. Are you kidding? Are you familiar with Acorn? Pot, I'd like to introduce Mr. Kettle.

Not that surprised, due to the AP being involved. We have Comcast - They post AP news clips - Following the last debate, a McCain shill working for AP, a lady named Sidoti, claimed McCain had won the debate. Other than Pat B and Bill Bennett, she was a lonely voice. Media Matters says that this is not the first time she has come out for McCain in a "fair and balanced" AP release. Isn't the Bureau Chief for their DC office in the tank, as well?

Another internal of the poll is strange: 68% of respondents were married. That may be representative of Utah, but I don't believe that is accurate in the entire U.S. voting age population. Also, they give no info whatsoever what they consider to be a likely voter as opposed to a registered voter. Quite a difference between the two in the poll's results.

Oh so the IBD/TIPP poll must be wrong too - you know the one that shows Obama's lead is down to 3.7 points from 6 points. The one that came out at the same time as the AP poll. As for the weighting for evangelicals - lets see the raw data posted here to actually believe it. Have heard that BS before back in 2004 - and then saw the real poll data and it wasnt anything like that.

Or for that matter how about yesterday's Rasmussen Poll that shows Ohio went from +2 for Obama to +2 for McCain - after the "One" screwed up and told the truth about his tax plan to Joe.

sounds like a lot of Obama kool-aid drinkers here and not serious posters

Oh and by the way - I am a Democrat who voted for Hillary because I thought Obama was way way too inexperienced to ever be President in 2008
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309546869309178

Love all the people who are against the AP - but when AP did a poll with Yahoo and showed Obama up by double digits then it was all praise for the AP.

And again - lets see the internals posted and see what the reality is. Somehow I doubt NPR, CNN and MSNBC - all of whom talked about this poll since it came out - would have missed the gems that have supposedly been mined from the raw data.

when AP did a poll with Yahoo and showed Obama up by double digits then it was all praise for the AP.

Let's see some links to this effusive praise.

And again - lets see the internals posted and see what the reality is.

You could start by reading the AP story, which clearly states that the 44-43 number refers to whites making under $50K and that "the entire sample showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among all registered voters, including the likely voters."

Fail.

here are the internals for the poll

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_3_Topline_FINAL.pdf

Protestant 31 34
Catholic 23 22

One thing to keep in mind for those of little knowledge - a lot of Catholics consider themselves evangelical Christians nowadays - its used frequently (I am a Catholic myself and my priest has made that distinction repeatedly over the years in his sermons).

As for the effusive comments - this poll (which supposedly is heavily weighted for Republicans even though the number of Democrat responders was much higher) is the same poll that was praised as being dead on when on 9/30/08 it showed Obama ahead by seven points.

Oh and also notice that this supposedly skewed poll shows that by almost a 3 to 1 margin the responders expected Obama to win over McCain.

Oh and by the way - I am a Democrat who voted for Hillary because I thought Obama was way way too inexperienced to ever be President in 2008

David, I simply don't believe you there. You're just spouting way too many McCain talking points to be taken seriously. Anyone who refers to "Joe" like that has just been imbibing too much McCain propaganda.

It may be true that the single AP poll that shows Obama up by 1 point is the one true poll. But, David, even according to the one true poll, McCain is still behind.

Take a look at the late polling data from the 2004 election here. Bush was ahead in nearly every poll in the last few weeks, except for a few outliers (AP, for one, Fox News for another) that showed Kerry ahead. I clung to these outliers with all I had because I so wanted them to be true. I think you remember how that worked out for me.

is the same poll that was praised as being dead on when on 9/30/08 it showed Obama ahead by seven points.

Yes, you keep saying that. You just don't seem to be able to back yourself up with any evidence of all this alleged gushing.

By the way, this poll now shows Obama ahead by 10 points in the entire sample and 5 points among RV/LV. Having a little trouble taking that in?

It's laughable that some on this blog are accusing Republicans of "manipulation" of votes. Are you kidding? Are you familiar with Acorn? Pot, I'd like to introduce Mr. Kettle.

Icaintspel apparently can't think either. The ACORN hysteria has been debunked again and again, no need to revisit it here. I will remind you that in 2004 the Ohio Secretary of State promised to "deliver" Ohio for Bush. And the Supremes certainly "delivered" FL and the election to Bush in 2000. And let's not forget the trumped up charges of voter fraud that didn't exist and led to the Attorney firings. Why just today, the GOP had to be struck down from trying to prevent early voting locations from opening in Indiana. Voter suppression much? No, I'm not kidding.

Actually, the Republicans in Indiana wanted to not only shut down early voting (in Democratic counties) but to toss out the votes of those who had already voted.

When Kavadias-Schneider asked, "What of those who have already voted?" R. Lawrence Steele, a GOP lawyer, replied, "Maybe those votes should be discarded."

Read the whole article here.

David: glad you are so objective. The goal of the AP poll was to get the liberal MSM to repeat the numbers in an unfiltered ridiculous way to give the illusion that the senile old man was still in the game. Mission accomplished. But we're on to the AP. It is at war with itself. Sometimes the AP will revert back to its old self, other days, like today, they allow their own polling data to be obscurred by an intentionally misleading headline "race tightening." Actually, Obama's lead has been growing, and their own poll reflected this. SO they got a bit Rovey with the facts. They should withdraw this story posthaste. They owe America a huge apology. As does NPS, MSNBC et al., for repeating the garbage without looking into it. No more tote bags for me.

I heard tell that the Vegas odds are 6:1 against a McCain win. Now that's a poll I can believe in!

The evangelical weighting in this poll is obviously high, but AP's previous poll from late Sept had Obama up 48-41 among likely voters and the evangelical weighting was also 44%.

"NBC/WSJ shows Obama up by 10; Fox News has him leading by nine; ABC/WaPo puts Obama's lead at 11; and Gallup shows an eight-point lead..."

"...44% of those in the poll's voter sample were self-identified evangelical Christians..."

Understand drilling down in the AP/GFK poll, but how about the other polls you cited? Seems to me you are applying different standards of scrutiny to polls with which you disagree.

"It's laughable that some on this blog are accusing Republicans of "manipulation" of votes. Are you kidding? Are you familiar with Acorn? Pot, I'd like to introduce Mr. Kettle."

As with everything else the whining about ACORN was and is republicans accusing their victims of what they themselves are guilty of. There has never been voter fraud perpetuated by ACORN. Rove and Connell and the Theocrat in Ohio conviced that routing the vote tallies through a Republican funded server in Tennessee before they were tallied was some a noble thing to do.

Charles Buntin,

Every year since 2000, the number of youth (under 30) voters has increased statistically significantly. In 2006, I believe it was 17% of the entire electorate was under 30. I would estimate that this year that will be over 20%, probably approaching 25%.

If the youth vote is 1/5 or 1/4 of all the voting population, can we please drop the damn myth that the youth doesn't vote, please?

Are you familiar with Acorn? -Icanintspel

Are you? Your ignorant comment indicates you are not. Run along now, child, adults talking.

Somehow I doubt NPR, CNN and MSNBC - all of whom talked about this poll since it came out - would have missed the gems that have supposedly been mined from the raw data. -David

The internals have been posted. That's what this article is about. Did you even read it? You also underestimate the ratings power of a close race. Check out fivethirtyeight.com for more debunking of this flawed poll.

sounds like a lot of Obama kool-aid drinkers here and not serious posters

Yes David, because as we all know, the SERIOUS posters refer to Obama as "The One" and take the fake, fraud, Republican "Joe" as credible.

Though I despise polls, I am following the national compilation polls such as the Real Clear Politics poll of 13 polls showing Obama +7.4.
Besides, of course, it is the electoral college that matters.

I am a Democrat who voted for Hillary

If you are a Dem, you apparently haven't gotten over Hillary's defeat.

Besides, of course, it is the electoral college that matters. -ckelly

Yep, I'm paying much more attention to the polls in Colorado and Pennsylvania. If Obama wins those states, he wins this election. Everything else is just icing.

Dude,

This poll was conducted by the Associated Freaking Press! Remember them from the summer? When Fournier (?) was basically making up pro McCain stories? Remember that guy who was almost hired by the McCain campaign before taking over the AP?

So pardon me while I ignore this poll entirely.

Hi Steve:

Obviously you live and die politics. That's great. The facts are( see Ann Coulter's article) www.anncoulter.com/cgi-local/article.cgi?article=278) that polls and pollsters have consistently got the elections wrong throughout history. If they were they (the polls and pollesters)would be 100% accurate and there would be no need even for an election. You must think everyone is an idiot, does not read and think for themselves, and we wait breathlessly for your next prouncement. Don't hold breath. We VOTE the opposite just to keep you honest.

Annnnd I think my irony meter just busted...someone by the name of "truthseeker" just referenced Ann Coulter as an impartial observer!

also - what is it with this article that's bringing out the trolls?? "Jethro" certainly lives up to the stereotype his name invokes...way keep it classy pal.

So I guess the reality is that this AP/GFK poll actually has Obama leading McSame 47-37; 10 points! Oh well, it made for an "exciting" story from my local paper, "Poll: Race closer after last debate." The hell with all the other, more credible polls!

I think the problem here is the question asks are you a born again evangelical Christian? Yes or No. There is no other option. I can see a lot of Christians, aka protestants and Catholics answering yes to this question because they don't want to say no they are not Christian, which is what that answer could imply.

I think the problem is just in the question. If the options were Evan Christian, Catholic, Protestant, Jew, Muslim Other i think the number would have been very different.

The AP's Poll? Ron Fournier's AP, that AP? The AP that's in the tank for McCain? That AP?

also - what is it with this article that's bringing out the trolls? -neilt

Right, I was noticing that, too.

Somebody must've linked it somewhere.

Everytime someone trys to dispel the lunatic rantings of the left wing queens who post on here "adults talking" (how about girls talking)...their posts mysteriously disappear. Enjoy your short moment in history.

Someone is citing Ann Coulter's "facts"?

What's next, a reference to the humanism and enlightment in mein kampf?

"Ron" is a big tough guy eh?

I find it interesting that any Obama supporter would worry about any poll. The Press has all but declared Obama the winner.
Or maybe Obama supporters are a little worried.

Maybe that's why the Obama campaign is breaking out the old Social Security scare tactics.

this poll is probably the mostr correct of the bunch ..hasn't anyone noticed the lack of signs this election.. its like everyone is afriad to put a sign out .. one way or another.. you have to have a conversaton about who to vote for in hushed tones because of the fear that an obnamat will accuse of being racists... and i remeber a poll a while back that had obama way out there - and i did not hear peep about it being an outlier and then it came out that a high porportion of african americans where survived - if i was everyone out there - throw every poll out and go vote and then we will have our answer as to who wins

Objections to the results of the AP poll posted here are reflective of the objections made of a recent "Military Times" poll of G.I.s. The AP poll was of 1,101 pollees across this nation of 303 million people. The "Military Times" poll was of 4,297 individuals currently on active duty,Servicemen & women from our fewer than two million active duty personnel. One objection to that "Miltary Times" poll was it wasn't a large enough sample. That survey indicated G.I.s on active duty favor McCain by more than three to one.

The only other poll of G.I.s I've seen was one about 4 months ago taken of G.I.s serving in Iraq. That one indicated G.I.s in the field favored John McCain by 55 to one over Obama.

Because I'm an Army retiree in frequent contact with fellow retirees I'm aware that nearly to a man we military retirees styrongly favor McCain.

you have to have a conversaton about who to vote for in hushed tones because of the fear that an obnamat will accuse of being racists...

Yes, because being accused of being racist is so much worse than someone trashing your car for having an Obama sticker on it or threatening to not let you register for spring classes because you put an Obama sign in your dorm room window.

Jesus, you guys are wimps. "Oh noes! People might think I'm racist if I say I won't vote for Obama because he's a terrorist-hugging secret socialist Muslim."

According to the 2002 edition of the once a decade "Census of U.S. Religions conducted by highly reputable Glenmary Research Center in 2002 these were the figures given by the 15 largest U.S. religious denominations:
1. Roman Catholic 62,035,042
2. Southern Baptist 19,881,467
3. United Methodist 10,350,629
4. Jewish 6,141,325
5. Evangelical Lutheran 5,113,418
6. Mormon 4,224,026
7. Presbyterian church3,141,566
8. Assemblies of God 2,561,998
9. Lutheran--Missouri Synod 2,521,062
10. Episcopal church 2,314,756
11. American Baptist 1,767,462
12. United Churco f Christ 1,698,918
13. Church of Christ 1,645,584
14. Muslim 1,559,294
15. Christian churches 1,439,253
8.

This piece has been chosen as BEST OPINION at THEWEEK.com - We really enjoyed your take on this subject.

Roach Coach driver, you are a blithering fucking idiot.

You might think that there are no military retirees here, being a liberal site and all, but you are wrong, wronger, wrongest.

Provide a link to that Military Times poll, why don't you? Your numbers about military support of McCain are made up in some sort of fantasy world. Donations to Obama from deployed troops are outpacing McCain donations six-to-one and the other retirees we talk to when we eat dinner at the O Club or attend retirement parties for friends are running about five to one against McCain.

Keep comforting yourself with your blanket of bullshit, but just making shit up doesn't make it so. The only place your numbers might bear out would be Davis Monthan or Luke, where old farts and snowbirds congregate and annoy the fuck out of the people with work to do. Idiot.