There have been ads playing here in AZ, which we assume are part of the national buys.

Barry Goldwater is probably smiling in his grave.

Obama has had a decent ad buy here for months. I've noticed back to back ads during the playoffs and World Series - on FOX. Also during prime time network programming.

This is not completely nuts. I live about 5 miles from the McCain Sedona Ranch - there are way more Obama bumper stickers here - Sedona is pretty liberal - Flagstaff is a college town and there is a huge immigrant (legal citizens) population here in the verde valley. ALSO D-Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01) is going to win the open seat
renzi is vacating.

I've been thinking about Obama holding a rally in Phoenix and spending money on advertising there. It could have powerful effect and remember GHW Bush campigned in Boston against Dukakis. Obama could certainly go to Arizona and there is an outside chance that it could tip the state. But Obama wouldn't do it. I think he knows that it would be overkill and create resentments that he doesn't need once he's president. He's campaigning to BE president, not just to be elected president.

"He's campaigning to BE president, not just to be elected president."

bingo.

thank you.

..did not finish thought...Hispanics are a huge voting block in AZ, and Obama has been pretty diligent about First American and Latino outreach though the campaign has not opened that many offices in AZ. McCain hasn't campaigned here at all. Janet Napolitano is very popular though I do not know if she is having a significant effect. If the vote is close that is really bad news for McCain - there are way more registered Rs than Ds.

Cindy McCain questioned Obama's character yesterday in New Mexico. They still haven't learned...if you live in a glass house...you should keep your stones in your pocket!

What's the most under-if-not-un-reported story this cycle? (And I defy you to come up with anything better.)

It's the fact that John McCain has had little or no support out West, when he is, in fact, the West's single most readily identifiable politician.

Mr. Arizon Senator seems poised to get pounded in neighboring New Mexico, he looks like he's going to give Colorado away, and even Nevada seems to be trending Obama. And yet nobody's talking about this despite the fact that the press is region-obsessed. They'll talk about the South, they'll talk about the Appalachian states, they're talk about the rust belt and the Northeast and on and on, but here's a truly Western candidate and somehow there's no West.

WTF?

My theory -- supported by both Ronald Reagan and Raymon Chandler -- is that McCain didn't ride enough horsies this time around. Put him up on a horse, daring Obama to scale one himself -- and thus step into his 'Dukakis in a tank' moment -- and you have something real, tangible, and genuinely-fraudulently American that voters can hang their hats on.

What did McCain give the West? Seven houses, thirteen cars, and Sarah Palin.

Nobody ever did less with more than John McCain.

Obama has raised more money in Utah than has McCain:
http://www.sltrib.com/ci_10819776

And that excludes three events last week (two by Clinton).

Obama has had a decent ad buy here for months. I've noticed back to back ads during the playoffs and World Series - on FOX. Also during prime time network programming.

They're national buys, though.

Cindy McCain questioned Obama's character yesterday in New Mexico.

For someone who looks dazed and miserable at all times, Cindy has turned out to be quite the vicious helpmeet, hasn't she?

@ Roschelle: Code of conduct, (In my best Sarah Palin convention speech voice) Is that kind of like a Naval code of conduct , only you follow it?
Is kind of like lying and stealing to get your drug fix ? Oh I see. Lets discuss some more.

Interesting post-- reminds me of the Anchorage Alaska newspaper now specifying
it is supporting Obama for president.
adn.com/opinion/story/567867:

"...Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand. The same cannot be said of Sen. McCain..."

Well--from Alaska to Arizona to way out here in Pennsylvania: McCain--just another
close crony to Bush, spouting familiar lies, with hypocrisy oozing exponentially day after day.
It has caught up with him.

There HAVE been ads running in AZ by Obama, just saw one the past week! What I also find interesting is the BIG amount of bumper stickers and placards on lawns touting Obama here in the Phoenix area. While I do not think Obama will carry AZ I do think McPain will be surprised at how big of a vote Obamam will get here in AZ. I truly hope Obama has coat tails long enough to get rid of some of the local Repugs in office here in Maricopa County...Andrew Thomas is one 'Pug I wanna see tossed out!!

pollster.com shows Nevada, Montana and North Dakota as "tossup" states, with McCain leading only in Montana. They have recently changed South Dakota from "strong McCain" to "lean McCain." The upper great plains seem to be coming out of their Republican stupor.

Unfortunately, Pollster's trendline for Arizona shows no gains there for Obama.

I live in the Phoenix Valley, and we see plenty of Obama ads. Furthermore, there is a huge registration and GOTV machine for democrats here. While it is very doubtful Obama will win, his presence on the ticket may help us get some of our worse politicians out, primarily Bob Lord over John Shadegg. If you really want to drive the wingnuts crazy, help us get rid of their favorite conservative - donate to Bob Lord

* AHEM *

I'm not the kind of guy to say I told you so, but I TOLD YOU SO!

I admit that my predicting McCain winning Siberia may have been overly optimistic, however.

Up here in the Prescott Area, we see lots of proposition signs and lots of representative signs, I've seen one McCain sign and two homemade Obama signs.

It's actually been nice not to have tons of political ads to sift through this year.

We are the forgotten state. It would be awesome if Obama squeezed out a victory here.

Unlikely but still...

Published on Tuesday, October 21, 2008 by CommonDreams.org
McCain Gambles Rove's Way, Making Vile Bet
by Bill Gallagher

"We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama."
--Paddy Power, Ireland's biggest bookmaker, Oct. 16th."

"While John McCain keeps rolling gutter balls and his Slime Talk Express derails any decency and honor his campaign once claimed to represent, the Irish, as they often demonstrate, are way ahead of the game."

"Paddy Power, the Dublin-based bookmaker told Reuters news service he made the "unprecedented decision" to pay on the bets he's taken so far on the U.S. presidential race..."

Worth reading. Article ends with "The vile John McCain rolled snake eyes. Paddy Power saw it coming."

Isn't it long past time to start calling on John McCain to concede?

I drive about three hours every day in Phoenix and haven't seen as many bumper stickers or yard signs for Obama as I saw for Kerry.

What does impress me is the phone call I got a couple of days ago from the Obama campaign asking me to give them a weekend's help in New Mexico! I doubt that's it's cost-effective (anyplace in N.M. is pretty far from Phoenix), but that they have the cash to spare for such an operation -- buses, lodging, food -- says that they have money to burn.

Needless to say (;-), if this or similar type of poll made McCain look better instead, Drudge would be bellowing it off his page.

I hope that asshole is sinking like many observers say, but he still has lots of viewers and some influence.

The Dems are indeed making serious gains in AZ. If the GOP nominee had been Rudy or Mittens or the Huckster, I have little doubt that we'd have the edge in AZ. Same thing for Alaska and Palin. Obama will win both states in 2012.

Cindy McCain questioned Obama's character yesterday in New Mexico. They still haven't learned...if you live in a glass house...you should keep your stones in your pocket!

When Cindy gets hold of some rocks, they burn a hole in her pocket pretty fast...

You might want to correct your post-- my parents live in Arizona and they say that there are plenty of Obama ads running in Arizona and my suspicion is that it is having some impact. Arizona would have been a swing state if McCain wasn't on the ticket.

as the first commenters noted, Obama has indeed been running ads here. I would not call it heavy, but it is there and it is persistent... it's hard to miss it if you watch much TV.

I've been saying for a long time that McCain's support in Arizona is a mile wide and an inch deep, and that while it's too much to hope for that Obama could actually take Arizona, it's also true that McCain is not going to win handily.

Nobody here - not even his supporters - really consider McCain a true Arizonan, certainly not in the way that his predecessor Barry Goldwater was.

McCain is just another transplant who came here looking for opportunity. There's nothing wrong with that, but it's not like, you know, we have the sense that McCain is in Congress to advance Arizona's interests. He's there to advance McCain's interest.

Still, should McCain lose AZ, you bet I'm going to sneak over to McCain's 16th St. and Colter office in the wee hours of Nov. 5 and slap a sign on his street sign reading, "HA, HA!"

If the vote is close that is really bad news for McCain - there are way more registered Rs than Ds.

Mmmm, I would not agree with the latter assertion.

According to an article from the end of August, there are about 2 million registered voters in Arizona. 1,050,000 are GOP, 960,000 are Democratic, and 760,000 are independents. That's a split of about 38.2% GOP, 34.5% Dem and 27.3% independent.

The GOP/Dem spread has been steadily narrowing and this does not include new registrations since the end of August which are very likely to close that gap even further.

... also, you can bet that the bulk of those independents are going to vote Obama.

Arizona has over 2.7 million registered voters, not 2 million as I stated above.

About 10 years ago the Arizona Democratic party was all but dead. It's made a remarkable comeback. Few remember that up until the 1960s, Arizona was a very Democratic state. There's even an outside chance that Obama's coattails could extend to the Legislature, which has been GOP-dominated for decades.

McCain didn't ride enough horsies this time around. Put him up on a horse, daring Obama to scale one himself

Being pedantic, I suspect the only way John McCain could get onto a horse is by being hoisted up via crane. The man's in bad shape.

Watch the congressional races in Arizona. Also note that McCain -- or the Senate seat he vacates -- comes up in the 2010 election cycle.

I bet McCain loses AZ, simply because they have real paper ballots, along with electronic reader and paper trail that goes in a lockbox and fairly large African Ameican population in Phoenix, and Hispanic, as well as Indian.

Arizona went for Bill Clinton both of his terms in office. AZ has a lot of elderly folk but it's hardly a redneck state. Howard Dean could really turn that state around with his 50 state strategy if he puts a little money a team in the state.

Sen. Jon Kyl very nearly lost his last election campaign so that state is ready to go blue, just needs a little push and it'll tip the state to the Dem side.

Independent Perspective, I wish that all of what you wrote was true... but most of it is not so.

1) There is not a 'fairly large African American population' in Phoenix. There is a 'fairly large' Hispanic population in comparison to the African-American population. But the proportion of Hispanics to whites is significantly smaller in the Phoenix metro than in Tucson. Phoenix is still a fairly white city, especially when you go out to the suburbs.

2) Arizona went for Clinton in 1996 but not in 1992. Clinton did well in 1992 but not as well as you claim!

3) Kyl did not nearly lose his last election (unfortunately). Jim Pederson was a credible candidate - hardly a sacrificial lamb - and he put a lot of money and effort into his race but he really didn't do all that well.

I will vouch, however, that it's a much more purple state than people usually give it credit for. McCain's seat is ripe for the picking in 2010 when Janet Napolitano runs for Senate. Dean should definitely be pouring resources into AZ. And it is really heartening to see how much effort Obama has put into McCain's home state. It's hardly been a token effort.

To be sure, this poll, while eyebrow-raising, seems to be at odds with most of the available data out of Arizona.

Actually, if you check that link again, you'll notice that the only other poll within nearly a month is another poll showing McCain doing even worse (+2 vs. +4). What this poll is at odds with is polls about a month or more old. (And even then, the second most recent of those polls had McCain at +7.)

OTOH, neither of the new polls is part of a series that has been previously reported, so even with two of them, its hard to say what they mean.

AZ is indeed purple and I see Napolitano giving McCain a good spanking in 2012 if he runs. If Obama wins the election a very reasonable argument in 2012 would be that AZ needs to with a Dem senator just for influence in the Senate. I think there's a pretty good possibility that McCain will retire in 2012 unless he has a personality transplant and decides to go the Goldwater route and become a true maverick.

Dos mas:

Project New West: McCain 44; Obama 40
Zimmerman & Associates: McCain 44; Obama 42

It looks like I'm about to become very, very proud of my former home state.