But I'm also curious which "doctors" Lieberman has been consulting on this

He was talking to Dr. Pulls-Fact-Outta-My-Rear, a noted medical professional who received his degree from the University of Make-Stuff-Up-And-Hope-No-One-Calls-Me-On-It.

I think the actuary he talked to, one Mr. Imaginary-Guy-I-Made-Up-To-Support-My-Claim, got his degree from the math department there as well. It's a very prestigious university.

These would perhaps be the same doctors who diagnosed Terry Schiavio via videotape.

From the actuarial POV, that 85 is probably just the full expected future life, which is done by summing up the probability of living every future year.

It's just a mathematical prediction, certainly not a perfect one, so I'm not too confident in what Lieberman is saying. McCain's at a stage in his life where, quite frankly, he could die at any point between now and infinity and it wouldn't be too surprising. That's just what it's like at that age with that medical history.

Were McCain to get elected, and considering his health problems and the tremendous stress of the job (Bush and Clinton both look like they aged 25 years in office), I highly doubt he'd serve 2 full terms.

I'll bet a shiny Sacajawea dollar that the live-to-85 "prediction" is actually the median expectation. In other words, there's an even chance that McCain won't make it to 85.

"Secondly, I talked -- because I get asked this question so much -- I talked to doctors and insurance actuaries. And they tell me based on McCain's age, his health, including skin cancer, he'll live till at least 85. And probably longer."

Horseshit! According to medical science and insurance actuaries, both McCain and I are lucky to be alive. I was given five years (it'll be nine this Spring). I recently tried to increase my life insurance coverage and was turned down.

McCain is living on borrowed time, some of which he's surely spent by dramatically increasing his stress level over the last year. This is compounded by the fact of how his health suffered during his time as a POW and because he's 23 year older than I am.

Of course the projection is absurd. It is based on average white males and not former POW's with a history of melanoma. If McCain was as healthy as Lieberman asserts he would have gladly released his medical information to professionals and allowed them plenty of time to review it.

"Thank God, she's not going to have to be president from Day One," Lieberman said.
Now that's praise you can believe in. At what point, Joe, do you estimate that we wouldn't have to thank God that she's not the president?

Based on the evidence of God's interventions on earth, invoking the assistance of God in this case or in getting these two misfits elected may not be the greatest strategy to gain the confidence of the voting vetters.

Lieberman might want to consult Palin's witch doctor, who no doubt will be begging God to kill McCain right after he helps him win the election.

Under an Obama administration, we can thank God every single day that Palin won't have to be president from day one. Seems like a safer bet to me.

Hahaha, I love the Frist burn.

Depending on what you look at, the median life expectancy of males age 72 only takes you to 84, not 85. And that's without the beatings, the long drinking history and the melanoma, but it's also without the rich white male with access to unlimited government-funded health care. Joe is just a loser.

Hmmm... According to deathclock.com, John McCain should have died 15 years ago.

"Thank God, she's not going to have to be president from Day One..."

"I believe that he'll be able to serve through his first term for which he's elected, please God."
---

If you must evoke the lords grace, asking him to prevent one of life's natural occurrences for the sake of politics, it's time to give it up.

Mary, mother of Jesus, please oh please see that John McCain is fit to serve A WHOLE TERM, so help us GOD! Ringing endorsement!

As some of the commentary above suggests, this is just a bad direction for Lieberman to be going in, because one natural reaction goes along these lines: "'McCain will live till at least 85'? Is that a guarantee? It can't be--he might get run over by a car tomorrow. So what's the probability that he lives until 85? Are you talking 90%? 75%? Or maybe just something better than 50/50?"

In case you missed the Oct. 19 NYT article, Many Holes in Disclosure of Nominees’ Health, on McCain's cancer:

"The Armed Forces pathologists suggested that the left-temple melanoma had spread from another melanoma, known as a metastasis or satellite lesion. 'The vertical orientation of this lesion,' the report said, 'with only focal epidermal involvement above it is highly suggestive of a metastasis of malignant melanoma and may represent a satellite metastasis of S00-9572-A,' which is the 'skin, left temple, lateral' biopsy."

http://tinyurl.com/62tfbu

Well what did you expect him to say? "He's as rotten as two week old peach, he won't make it Memorial Day."

And I hate to mention this, but...Lieberman's skin doesn't look so great.

Shorter Joe

I tasted the Palin kool-aid but did not swallow.

Actually the narrow issue of how Lieberman can justify his assurance of McCain's chances isn't the big story - look at how this reflects on Palin and McCain's having chose her, to say "Thank God" she likely won't be President! I mean, what a putdown for a Ticket. The VP pick is supposed to be up to stepping in regardless of "how likely", this is simply pathetic - and what does Palin and her boosters think when they hear that?

I'm a pension actuary. According to IRS 2008 "combined" mortality tables for pension valuations, a 72 year old male has a 90% chance of suvival to age 76, 76% probability of survival to age 80.

I thought only younger people were suppose to have a foolish sense of immortality.

I thought only younger people were suppose to have a foolish sense of immortality.

So what happens if McCain drops dead of whatever either before or just after being elected? Do we get Palin, a do-over, or does the Republican party just pick somebody?

According to http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html, a 72-year-old male has a 97% chance of surviving the next year, and an expected death age of 84. This table doesn't give quite enough information, but it suggests an 87% chance of surviving four years. This is all assuming that McCain is of average health of a 72-year-old male, of course.

Echoing Tbone, living till 85 is very different than being able to carry out the duties of the President of the United States until he's 85.

Someone call bs on Holy Joe. Again.

As a rule, when a campaign surrogate is relying on doctors and actuaries to reassure voters about a candidate, it's not a good sign.

As a rule, when a campaign surrogate is relying on a deity to reassure voters, it's not a good sign.

So according to Joe, no one who's reasonably healthy at age 72 dies before age 85.

But I'm also curious which "which doctors" Lieberman has been consulting on this,

Fixed it.

One of my neighbors, quoting a friend who's an actuary, *guarantees* that McCain will outlive Obama because Obama smokes and plays basketball.
Riiiiiiiight.

So what happens if McCain drops dead of whatever either before or just after being elected? Do we get Palin, a do-over, or does the Republican party just pick somebody? Posted by: AJB

I think the first part of your question is, thankfully, heading into "if monkeys fly out my butt" territory.

The answer to the second part of your question is we now have our first, and probably last since she'll destroy the country, Madam President and she picks a new VP.

The answer to the second part of your question is we now have our first, and probably last since she'll destroy the country, Madam President and she picks a new VP. Jeff II

So, drawing a straight line; if McCain picks Palin, who would Palin pick?

[holding nose]

So what happens if McCain drops dead of whatever either before or just after being elected?

Remember that, despite the fact that Presidential candidates names are on the ballot, that's not who you are voting for when you go to the polls, you are voting for electors who then vote for the President and Vice President. So if a candidate were to die before the election in which electors are selected, or after that and before electoral votes are cast, and a majority of the electors were from that candidates party, they would essentially be free to vote for whoever they wanted to. In a normal election, you'd expect that to likely that they would vote for the Vice Presidential nominee of their party to be President, and someone else to be Vice President, though its quite possible they could vote for other people (either by wide agreement, or their could fail to be agreement and they could vote in different blocks).

If it happened after the electoral votes were cast, but before they were counted, that would be...well, I'm not certain exactly how that would get handled. There are a few possibilities, though its possible that the votes would be counted as regularly given despite the fact that one candidate was deceased and then the scenario below would follow.

If it happened after the electoral votes were counted and there was a legal President- and Vice-President-elect, then the Vice President would be sworn in as usual and immediately succeed to the Presidency, and then be allowed to nominate a new VP (who would require confirmation by both Houses of Congress.)

Remember that, despite the fact that Presidential candidates names are on the ballot, that's not who you are voting for when you go to the polls, you are voting for electors who then vote for the President and Vice President. So if a candidate were to die before the election in which electors are selected, or after that and before electoral votes are cast, and a majority of the electors were from that candidates party, they would essentially be free to vote for whoever they wanted to. Posted by: cmdicely

It would be an interesting exercise to have this happen one election (just not this one). It would finally bring home to the American public that the nation can be fucked over in more than one way by the Electoral College, conclusively demonstrating that no, your vote doesn't really count.

If nothing else, require that EC votes be based on proportionality. Is that too much to ask?

What would the Israeli Lieberman know about our country?

Did he really say "Thank God, she's not going to have to be president from Day One"?

Perhaps he really meant "Thank God she's not going to have to be president." As in, never getting the chance.

Here he sounds less certain: "I believe that he'll be able to serve through his first term for which he's elected, please God."

Maybe that isn't what will please God, Joe.

God, this is so bizarre.

"...my fellow prisoners..."