October 30, 2008
ABOUT THAT FOX NEWS POLL.... There have been some national polls showing John McCain narrowing the gap a bit this week -- which is not at all unexpected -- but Fox News raised some eyebrows this afternoon with a new poll showing Obama's lead down to just three points nationwide, 47% to 44%.
A week ago, a similar Fox News poll showed Obama's lead at nine points, 49% to 40%, which certainly gives the appearance of some favorable movement in McCain's direction.
But it is Fox News, which, as a rule, is grounds for some skepticism. In this case, the results are worth a closer look.
One of Marc Ambinder's readers noted that Fox News changed its sampling for this poll, as compared to last week's. Seven days ago, 43% of respondents were Dems, and 37% were Republicans. This week, 41% were Dems, and 39% were Republicans. Fewer Dems and more Republicans will obviously produce a more McCain-friendly result.
So, why change the weighting in the poll? Ambinder asked Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal for his take.
He tells me: "If they have been weighting by party, and they suddenly changed their weighting, I'd say it's a pretty questionable practice. The last four Fox surveys all varied slightly in terms of party ID, so I'm not sure that's what they've done. That said, if the other surveys this week show no similar 'shift' in party, then it's probably reasonable to discount this result."
Steve M. had a good item on this, noting, "Democrats had a six-point party-affiliation advantage in the last poll. Now it's two? Anybody think that in any way jibes with reality right now? According to Gallup, that's less than the Dems' party advantage in 2006 or 2004. Anyone think they've slipped over the past two years? Preposterous. But it got Murdoch just the number he wanted."
Something to keep in mind when Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly trumpet this poll tonight.
—Steve Benen 5:05 PM
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This poll will obviously be helpful to the Republicans and the corporate-owned media when the time comes to cover up the Republican theft of the election through voter disenfranchisement, intimidation and fraud.
Posted by: SecularAnimist on October 30, 2008 at 5:17 PM | PERMALINK
Of course this kind of stuff will happen. But tell me -- how does McCain get to / steal to 270?
Posted by: John McCain: Worse than Bush on October 30, 2008 at 5:17 PM | PERMALINK
What do you really expect from Faux News? When it doesn't come anywhere near this on election night they will say it's because of voter intimidation by the Democratic Party of vote fraud... LoL
Posted by: Cybersophist on October 30, 2008 at 5:19 PM | PERMALINK
Because of the McCain campaign, and the Republican tactics in general, I've become quite cynical.
This extreme narrowing in the Fox polls I believe is a gimmick. At the least, it's an attempt to motivate the Republican base by creating a closer race than actually exists. At worst, it lays the groundwork for the Republicans to challenge, if only in rhetorical terms, Obama's possible victory. They can claim their 'polls' showed the race to be a tie, and that any Obama victory must have been because of 'voter fraud.'
But as I said, I've become pretty cynical, and put nothing passed the Republicans.
Posted by: JWK on October 30, 2008 at 5:21 PM | PERMALINK
Did they mention that the poll was measured to within a margin of error of total horseshit?
Posted by: DH Walker on October 30, 2008 at 5:27 PM | PERMALINK
This poll will no doubt be touted on all the major networks and CNN. It is necessary to keep ratings up. Of course, they all know it is flawed, but that won't stop them from pushing it. A tightening horse race down the stretch makes for good ratings.
If you normalize the poll using standard party affiliation numbers you come up with results remarkably similar to Gallup. That isn't very interesting is it?
The pollster owed it to everybody to point out the change, but that wasn't something he was paid to do.
By the way, what is Rachel Maddow going to talk about next Thursday?
Posted by: Ron Byers on October 30, 2008 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK
Because of the McCain campaign, and the Republican tactics in general, I've become quite cynical.
I feel a similar way about all the sudden emphasis on the 'Bradley Effect'.
If Republicans do steal the election they can use the 'Bradley Effect' to justify why the polls were so different from the results. Having a bunch of outlining polls showing a close race just helps them.
Nonetheless, TURNOUT!!! TURNOUT!!! TURNOUT!!!
If you're at polling place where they are doing ecit polls, take the time to fill one out. Make sure the exit poll results show an Obama win.
We may need all the ammo we can get before this is done.
Posted by: thorin-1 on October 30, 2008 at 5:28 PM | PERMALINK
Polls like this will help Obama. It will help forestall temptations to complacency and drive up his turnout.
Go FOX!
Posted by: Ralph Kramden on October 30, 2008 at 5:32 PM | PERMALINK
The cool thing about reality is that it's real.
Come Tuesday, we will see how the Fox Noise Machine feels about its polls.
Posted by: BombIranForChrist on October 30, 2008 at 5:35 PM | PERMALINK
I've posted the average of the four daily tracking polls (Zogby, Gallup, Hotline & Rasmussen) from 10-25 thru 10-30 elsewhere, but here are Obama's margins again: 8.13%, 7.58%, 6.95%, 6.08%, 5.43% and 6.23% today. Definite shrinkage, but nothing like Fox is claiming. Going back a full week to 10-23 we have 7.48% and 7.83% for 10-24.
I also think the shrinkage is due to the socialism/redistribution theme that McCain has been hammering into the ground. The letters are just pouring into our leading newspaper in Idaho accusing Obama of being a socialist. Today, 4 of 9 on the presidential race were angry diatribes - here's an excerpt from one: "Obama says that we should 'share the wealth' because it's the 'neighborly thing to do.' So, I should give the person who chose not to work so hard or the person that is second or third generation welfare recipient more of my hard-earned money than I already do? That's called socialism."
It's the typical sentiment among the working poor in Idaho. They don't see it the way we see it, and they believe that once in office, Obama will raise their taxes and give the money to the welfare bums. You can't reason with them. And they firmly believe that poor people are poor because they're lazy. "Just get a second or third job," is what you hear all the time.
McCain has struck pay dirt with this eleventh hour charge. If Obama loses, this is what did it. These people are mad as hell now, and all fired up.
Posted by: hark on October 30, 2008 at 5:38 PM | PERMALINK
Faux Noise just wants to prepare us for the fact that the rethugs have already conned the machines, and that they will win by a landslide, enabled by Diebold and ESS.
Posted by: on October 30, 2008 at 6:03 PM | PERMALINK
I thinks it's more than FOX news. Remember a couple of weeks ago when the Obama campaigned 'leaked' an internal PA poll with a 2 point spread? That essentially had the effect of keeping McCain in PA and out of OH, NC, MO, and FL, and feeding into the strategy of picking off a blue state.
Yesterday Charlie Crist tells us that internal polling shows McCain ahead in FL, McCain has been chirping for the past couple of days that the polls are really tight, McInturf leaks a polling memo crowing about movement towards McCain, now FOX produces, right on cue, a 3 point poll - it could be real, or it could be more happy talk to feed the news cycle. And since the MSM cares more about a close race than actual good governance, corruption, or the Rule of Law, they will report the rumors of a tightening race, rather than look at whether the data supports it.
Nate Silver and Mark Blumenthal see a miniscule movement towards McCain, at most a point - not nearly a tie. And in the state polls where it really matters - oh well...the wortst Obama will do is 281 (all the Kerry states plus IA and CO) the absolute best is 394 (all the Kerry states plus, FL, OH, VA, NC, IA, CO, NM, IN, NV, and one electoral vote in NE.)
Can this thing be over already?
Posted by: bcinaz on October 30, 2008 at 6:06 PM | PERMALINK
Faux or not, a reminder to all of us to not be complacent.
That said, my sense is that it's faux. A big swing toward McCain as he gets increasingly shrill and detached from reality?
Posted by: short fuse on October 30, 2008 at 6:21 PM | PERMALINK
faux news poll?
Isn't that an oximoron?
Posted by: on October 30, 2008 at 6:34 PM | PERMALINK
"Something to keep in mind when Sean Hannity and Bill O'Reilly trumpet this poll tonight."
There are lots better programs not to watch tonight.
Posted by: Wayne on October 30, 2008 at 7:27 PM | PERMALINK
I don't see how this can be used to "explain" the steal-the-vote-via-Diebold, since it's the only poll with such results. If, OTOH, it keeps us giving the last ounce of all we've got, till the last minute, till the polls close in our localities... I'm all for it :)
Got two begs for money today: one headed by Biden and one by Marianne Markowitz, the Chief Financial Officer for the Obama campaign. Both stress the fact that, as of Oct15, NRC+McCain had $20mil more than DNC+Obama. That's because DNC had been lagging in fundraising throughout the campaign -- the only one of the 4 "legs" which did -- but, if you didn't know that, you could get frightened a send an extra fiver or tenner.
The "funny" nugget was in the second message, from Markowitz. She's complaining about McCain's campaign running anti-Obama ads in Montana and West Virginia and money is needed to combat those. I'm gonna send a few bucks just for the heck of it but, in general, I feel that if Obama campaign is gonna get on McCain's tail in effing Montana and West-by-God-Virginia, then they must be in pretty darn good shape overall.
Posted by: exlibra on October 30, 2008 at 7:43 PM | PERMALINK