Editore"s Note
Tilting at Windmills

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November 5, 2008

THE NEXT SENATE.... The political world knew long before yesterday that an Obama administration would work with a Democratically-controlled Senate. The question was how big the majority would be.

The 60-vote, filibuster-proof majority was always a long-shot, and as a practical matter, not necessarily a prerequisite to governing anyway.

So, where did Democrats end up? As it happens, the dust hasn't quite cleared yet. Every Democratic incumbent, as expected, won re-election. We also know that Democrats, at a minimum, won five seats that were held by Republicans: Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. That brings the Democratic majority to a very healthy 56 seats.

There are, however, some unresolved contests.

* Minnesota -- With nearly all of the precincts reporting, Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by about 800 votes, out of nearly 2.9 million cast. A statewide recount seems likely.

* Alaska -- Ted Stevens may have just been convicted on seven felony counts, but he appears to have a very narrow lead over Mark Begich anyway. The Anchorage Daily News reports, "With more than 80 percent of the precincts reporting, Stevens held a 2-percentage point advantage over Democrat Begich. About 4,000 votes separated the candidates. The razor-thin margin means the Senate race might not be decided for two weeks." (Remember, if Stevens ultimately wins, an expulsion vote seems likely in the Senate.)

* Oregon -- Gordon Smith, the Republican who ran multiple ads talking about how much he likes Barack Obama, appears to have a very narrow lead over Jeff Merkley, but the race hasn't been called yet.

* Georgia -- Saxby Chambliss (R) appears to have a two-point lead over Democrat Jim Martin with just about all of the votes counted, but with Libertarian Allen Buckley gaining more than 3% of the vote, Chambliss seems to be just shy of the 50% threshold needed in Georgia. The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported this morning, "If that scenario held, Chambliss would face a costly and unpredictable four-week runoff with Martin."

The Democratic majority will, in other words, be at least 56 seats.

That is, if Joe Lieberman stays in the caucus. The Connecticut independent is very likely to lose his committee chairmanship, and may feel compelled to complete his betrayal. Yesterday, Lieberman told right-wing radio host Glenn Beck that he "fears" that America would not survive if Democrats reached the 60-seat plateau.

I don't think any senator has ever voluntarily joined the minority caucus, but keep an eye on ol' Joe.

Steve Benen 9:05 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (46)

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Comments

After eight such incredibly disastrous years, it's hard to fathom why anyone would vote for any Republican for any position.

Posted by: jen f on November 5, 2008 at 9:14 AM | PERMALINK

test

Posted by: test on November 5, 2008 at 9:16 AM | PERMALINK

Since 60 in the Senate seems unachievable, if I were Harry Reid, I'd strip Lieberman of all committie MEMBERSHIPS. Assign him a broom closet in the basement as an office, and let him sit there and stew in all his backstabbing bitterness for the next 4 years.

Posted by: Ol'Froth on November 5, 2008 at 9:20 AM | PERMALINK

Ken Yew Heer Mea Noe!?!

Posted by: Jet on November 5, 2008 at 9:21 AM | PERMALINK

Kick Holy Joe out of the caucus. Campaigning with the other side's presidential candidate is not acceptable in a Dem caucus member. I don't care what the numbers are. Get him out. NOW.

Posted by: jimBOB on November 5, 2008 at 9:22 AM | PERMALINK

(Remember, if Stevens ultimately wins, an expulsion vote seems likely in the Senate.)

Can we kick Jefferson to the curb in a bipartisan twofer?
Time to put our integrity where our mouths are, Dems.

Posted by: toowearyforoutrage on November 5, 2008 at 9:22 AM | PERMALINK

I think ol Joe Lieberman was hedging his bet.

Posted by: Jet on November 5, 2008 at 9:24 AM | PERMALINK

Who would likely take over the Stevens seat if he were expelled? Palin??

Posted by: wab on November 5, 2008 at 9:25 AM | PERMALINK

The library systems of Kentucky will be hard hit, as Mitch Mc will check out a ton of books, as he becomes known as Filibuster Mitch. Yeah, Mitch will just load up on gallons of Bute and Lasix and ramble on and on.

Close still in Oregon, but, perhaps Gordon will be able to get back to his passion of checking IDs at his plants in Eastern Oregon.

However, any word on the new Senators from Illinois and Delaware, who will take over from our President and Vice President elects?

Posted by: berttheclock on November 5, 2008 at 9:30 AM | PERMALINK

Does anyone know if Palin can appoint herself to Stevens's seat if he gets expelled?

Posted by: Ben on November 5, 2008 at 9:30 AM | PERMALINK

Remember, it takes two-thirds of the votes in the Senate to oust a senator, so Stevens isn't necessarily done for. If he IS ousted, once his seat is vacant, Alaska law requires a special election. But he likely will appeal his conviction, which will take months, and he still has the chance of a Bush pardon.

Posted by: Angela on November 5, 2008 at 9:31 AM | PERMALINK

Lieberman told right-wing radio host Glenn Beck that he "fears" that America would not survive if Democrats reached the 60-seat plateau.

Shirley Joe doesnt believe that, it appears he is trying to make himself appear as the saviour of America.

Horse dollop.

Posted by: Jet on November 5, 2008 at 9:32 AM | PERMALINK

Lieberman is why I never cared much about whether Dems were going to get a 60 seat majority. In fact, my fear was that they WOULD get 60, and in turn make Lieberman effectively the most powerful man in the Senate.

Posted by: Quinn on November 5, 2008 at 9:36 AM | PERMALINK

Minnesota has a mandatory recount if the race is within 1/2 of 1 percent. The Franken/Coleman senate race meets that criteria. So there will be a mandatory recount in that race.

Posted by: VOR on November 5, 2008 at 9:37 AM | PERMALINK

Time to kick LIEberman to the curb!

Posted by: Rick on November 5, 2008 at 9:38 AM | PERMALINK

I thought I remembered reading something last night re: the Stevens seat. Something to the effect that because of the reforms in Alaska, if he's kicked out of the Senate then there's a special election. Most states allow the governor to pick the successor. Seems like it hinders Palin's clout if they have a special runoff. Can anyone confirm this about potential fall out with a Steven's expulsion?

Posted by: BullCity on November 5, 2008 at 9:42 AM | PERMALINK

Alaska would have to have a new election.

Posted by: Danp on November 5, 2008 at 9:43 AM | PERMALINK

This was our best chance in years for Alaskans to put Democrats on our congressional delegation. I have to say that I am astonished (once again) at the electorate up here.

Some one in these threads once described Alaska as "Alabama with snow." At the time, I bristled at the description and still disagree. We've got our own special brand crazy.

Posted by: AK Liberal on November 5, 2008 at 9:44 AM | PERMALINK

Palin can't appoint a new Senator; AK would have to have a special election.

Posted by: Monty on November 5, 2008 at 9:45 AM | PERMALINK

And Leiberman made some comments last night, alluding to the filibuster, that it was a necessary tool to cool the passions of the moment, or some nonsense. In other words, nyah-nyah, I'm going to be hateful and spiteful and Connecticut has no recall law.

I'm saying Democrats have 55, not 56.

I don't think McCain and Specter....and maybe not even Snowe or Collins....are going to go along with filibuster after filibuster. And I honestly think that having a President Obama as a fact on the ground changes the dialogue.

I don't *think* that the Republicans are going to be able to quietly block bill after bill and make it look like they're not doing it. Obama will call them out.

I wouldn't put it past President Obama and Harry Reid to take the first attempted filibuster and make them talk for three weeks, just to kill it dead.

Posted by: Z. Mulls on November 5, 2008 at 9:46 AM | PERMALINK

This is very disappointing. WTF is wrong with OR and MN? And AK -- Jeebus. Can Palin appoint herself??

Posted by: John McCain: Worse than Bush on November 5, 2008 at 9:48 AM | PERMALINK

According to TPM Palin can not appoint herself. They said there would have to be a special election.

Of course, Palin could run for the seat herself. Not sure if she'd have to resign first or could wait to see what the results were.

Posted by: Z. Mulls on November 5, 2008 at 9:50 AM | PERMALINK

Coleman won in Minnesota, sorry. Yeah, we'll have a recount, but it's pretty much a done deal. Sorry, folks. I even put a Franken bumper sticker on the back of my motorcycle helmet yesterday. I guess I'm lucky no one ran over me out of spite. Because believe me, a vote for Coleman IS a vote for spite. And his fake wife who lives in California. And his girlfriends here in Minnesota. And his in-laws, who raise his children for him.

I despise Norm Coleman. Can you tell?

Posted by: Angela on November 5, 2008 at 9:54 AM | PERMALINK

Joe Lieberman doesn't matter on one side of the isle or the other. Democrats are going to put forth solid legislation with the interests of the country first. If the GOP chooses to remain as rabid as they have and continue to fight for the sake of fighting, 2010 will be another reminder of where the people are today.

56 is plenty and if done right and fairly, having 10-15 senators on either side of the isle will ensure the change that has been DEMANDED in 2008 will be achieved.

Posted by: ThatGuy on November 5, 2008 at 9:57 AM | PERMALINK

If the Repubs try to filibuster something important...an energy bill say, they should be forced to do it in public, a real talkathon. let them be up there every day bloviating, while Obama nad the bloggers and even MSM op-eds strip their hides off every day. Which Senators are vulnerable in 2010? Hang it on them if they stick with the obstructionists, and go after them mercilessly in the election.

I don't think we can waste two years without action on health care or climate change, but if we do, let's make sure that the blame is squarely placed where it belongs.

On another topic: with the Bush wrecking crew in overtime to gut as many consumer and environmental protections as possible before Nov. 20 (the deadline for such matters)is the a way, say with law-suites and temporary injunctions, to run out the clock on them? Sierra Club? ACLU? Anybody?

Posted by: jrosen on November 5, 2008 at 9:58 AM | PERMALINK

Palin will NOT be appointing Stevens' replacement. Alaska law requires a special election. Bush pardoning Stevens would not save his seat - his conviction seals his fate no matter what happens further down the line with appeals or pardons. In fact, by pardoning Stevens, Bush would probably short-circuit the appeals process and remove any possibility of Stevens getting his record expunged.

If there is a special election the strong likelihood is the seat would stay Republican.

Posted by: jimBOB on November 5, 2008 at 10:02 AM | PERMALINK

For everyone wondering WTF is going on in MN, slow down.

This was one of the nastiest campaigns the states has seen. The negative ad blitz from Franken wore on voters, because you know - Coleman, the gracious statesman he is pulled all of his negative adverting - piece of shit! The RNC stepped in and doubled down, and it looks as though it might have paid off. It is not over!

There was a third candidate in this race and he, last I checked was at 15% of the vote.

This is democracy and MN is American, just keep that in mind.

Posted by: ThatGuy on November 5, 2008 at 10:03 AM | PERMALINK

I am pissed off about the Minnesota Senate race, disappointed by Oregon and mindboggled by Alaska.

Posted by: tanstaafl on November 5, 2008 at 10:10 AM | PERMALINK

Btw, I am not in Minnesota and am not angry at Minnesotans. Among other things, I realize that the presence of a strong 3rd-party candidate complicates things.

It's just that I like Al Franken and that after the ugly way Coleman won Paul Wellstone's seat six year ago and the ugly campaign he ran this year, I really wanted to see him lose big.

Here's hoping that something surprising happens in the recount.

Posted by: tanstaafl on November 5, 2008 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK

In 2000 I believe that Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont switched from Republican to Independent even though the parties each had 50 seats. Leiberman switching would not be a bad thing now and would probably end his career (thank god).

Also, I hope that Sen. Reid and the Democrats make the Republicans put the noose the around Stevens' neck (metaphorically, of course). If not, perhaps they could leave him in his seat and let him for get stinkier and stinkier before he resigns.

Posted by: tomb on November 5, 2008 at 10:15 AM | PERMALINK

"WTF is wrong with Oregon"

We had a mud slinging mess between Smith and Merkeley. However, much of Smith's support came from his playing the moderate card - Smith was hard to pin down on positions, because he tried to keep many opposing groups pacified. He would dribble out support and make speeches on their behalf. At the end of the day, he voted with Bush. I know a Democratic lady, who mistakenly voted for him because she said he opposed the war. This goes to the heart of his smoke screens - He stood in the Senate and opposed Bush on Iraq, but, when voting time came, he voted with Bush. However, his ads would lead one to believe that he "opposed" Bush. Smith was smoke and mirrors. Such as standing firm behind tough immigration laws, but, letting his wife look the other way at their plants and hiring undocumented workers.

However, back to the Senate, where Uncle Joe Lieberman will help the new Senator Todd Palin find his way. Alaska Air will have to put on special weekly roundtrip flights from Anchorage to DC. No Alaska Amber will be served, but, plenty of scripture for one's perusal.

Posted by: berttheclock on November 5, 2008 at 10:18 AM | PERMALINK

AK: yes, if Stevens gets expelled there's a special election. Alaska changed its procedure for replacing federal officeholders after Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to the seat left vacant by his own move into the governor's mansion.

OR: I still have high hopes for Jeff Merkley. The whole state votes by mail, and they count paper ballots slowly (perhaps because ballots received on election day have to be transported to a counting site): it looks like as of 10am EST something like 25% of the ballots haven't been counted. If those ballots, as rumor suggests, come from Multnomah County (Portland), Merkley probably wins.

MN: yes, they'll recount, but yeah, Coleman probably won. National political observers got excited about Franken, and he's a smart funny man whose policy position I support, but frankly he wasn't a good fit for Minnesota: not down-home enough, not terribly friendly in person when I met him, not a good fit for the rural parts of the state where progressives (Wellstone!) have to make themselves acceptable in order to win. I'm disappointed but not surprised.

But I'll take 56 (minus Holy Joe, plus Merkley) over 51 (including Holy Joe) any day, and three times on the weekends.

Posted by: Steve on November 5, 2008 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK

First off, can we PLEASE make Dick Durbin the majority speaker of the Senate? Pretty please?!

In any case, if I were Obama, I would try and work with the rational republicans (Hagel, Snowe, et al) and give a figurative one-finger salute to the rest of the frothing GOP masses.

All I hear from the MSM is "Obama has to move to the center." Sorry people, Obama is already at the center, if not a shade or two to the right. You people have to COME TO US.

Posted by: bdop4 on November 5, 2008 at 10:20 AM | PERMALINK

Any chance Saxby Chambliss would lose a runoff, when the Libertarian is out of the mix?

Posted by: Z. Mulls on November 5, 2008 at 10:23 AM | PERMALINK

I live one state over from Oregon and berttheclock pretty well described why I describe myself as disappointed there.

Gordon Smith is no more loathsome than any Republican and less so than most, but in a relatively Democratic state in a very Democratic year, he appears to have managed to survive by pretending he wasn't a Republican at all.

As for Alaska, how Ted Stevens could pull out a win there after his felony convictions in impossible to understand even in as red a state as Alaska.

Posted by: tanstaafl on November 5, 2008 at 10:24 AM | PERMALINK

I think that it is time for Harry Reid to introduce Linc Chafee to a few GOP Senators. Linc Chafee would be still in the US Senate if he had switched to the Democratic Caucus. He voted with the Democrats so often that he attracted a right wing challenge in the GOP primary. And then he got run over by a real Democrat in the general. Given that the Dems have a good majority, have lots of goodies to share, and the GOP is going to be even more crazy than before, without any goodies to share, why should Collins, Snow, Coleman, Spector remain in the GOP? It's only going to get worse and worse for GOP moderates.

Posted by: Tom in Ma on November 5, 2008 at 10:28 AM | PERMALINK

Yesterday, Lieberman told right-wing radio host Glenn Beck that he "fears" that America would not survive if Democrats reached the 60-seat plateau.

WTF kind of comment is that? I'll tell you what that is, that's right wing spite, calling Democrats and Liberals immoral demons who will destroy America. Lieberman is a shameless ass, who thinks he's above the American people when it comes to right and wrong.

He should be spat out of the party post haste. What is there to reconcile with?
As Charlie Munger once said; 'when you mix rasins with rabbit turds and shake it up, all you end up with is a bag of shit.'
Let's keep this little turd out of the Democratic Bag.

PS - talking to Glenn Beck, the hight of reasonable discourse... Why does Liberman love to talk to all the haters? Maybe because his little heart is full of bile too?

Posted by: Northern Observer on November 5, 2008 at 10:47 AM | PERMALINK

Re: Alaskans Voting for Stevens

I think that they are not really voting for Stevens, they are voting for a chance to put another Republican into that seat. If Begich wins then they have a Democrat for 6 years. If Stevens wins and is expelled then they can elect another Republican.

Posted by: JB on November 5, 2008 at 11:13 AM | PERMALINK

I'm in Minnesota and Al Franken would have made an excellent senator. Sadly, he played the "Let's win back Paul Wellstone's seat" card far too late--the first I heard it said publicly was MONDAY. He should have been campaigning on that all along.

And maybe, just maybe, with Dems in power, they can provide some earmarks so Pelosi can get a spine surgically implanted, since she gave hers up after getting the SotH spot.

Posted by: Angela on November 5, 2008 at 11:19 AM | PERMALINK

Reading this post, it suddenly hit me.

I know why Palin refused to say who she voted for.

She wasnt trying to hide her presidential vote; she was forestalling a question about her SENATE vote. She claimed she wouldnt vote for Stevens, but I bet she actually did.

Posted by: TG Chicago on November 5, 2008 at 12:31 PM | PERMALINK

Speaking of Senate Joes, what's gonna happen to Delaware's Senate seat? With Biden vacating, does the governor fill the vacancy? If so, for how long a term? Not a full six years, surely?

Posted by: Jurgan on November 5, 2008 at 1:08 PM | PERMALINK

Jurgan: Yes, the governor of Delaware gets to appoint someone to fill Biden's seat.

Personally, I believe that there should be NO running for political office until you have official vacated the office to which you were already elected. Obama's going to go home for 2.5 months to plan his cabinet, etc.? Bullshit. He should be returning to D.C. to do the job his constiuents elected (hired) him to do.

I'm just appalled that our tax dollars pay for them to run for office instead of doing the job they are paid to do.

Posted by: Angela on November 5, 2008 at 1:52 PM | PERMALINK

As an Alaskan, it was really strange going from the thrill of what was happening nationally to the disappointment of what's happening locally. A new era for the country, but it looks like Alaska will still have the same senator, representative, and governor. Someone in the comments said people voted for Stevens to get a shot at replacing him with another republican rather than Begich. I disagree. A whole lot of people here voted for Stevens because they want Stevens. Yeah I know, I don't get it either. There's a sense he was tried and convicted unfairly. And there is a very, VERY strong anti-lower 48 mentality here. "So you think we need a new senator? Well I'll show you!" There is also a very large number of people who will absolutely refuse to vote democratic no matter what. I think we've seen that. But to sound a note of optimism, many things about Alaska are like the rest of the country was 5 or 10 years ago. We are typically behind on almost everything. So give us a few years. We'll catch up.

Posted by: emd on November 5, 2008 at 2:34 PM | PERMALINK

One last thought. Up until yesterday, I thought there was a good chance that we would retire Gov. Palin in 2010. Now I'm not so sure. If we're willing to reelect a felon, what's it going to take?

Posted by: emd on November 5, 2008 at 3:00 PM | PERMALINK

Very interesting results as results continue to trickle in.

Merkeley has taken a lead of about 2500 votes with nearly a quarter of the total still to be counted in Oregon. This one could still go either way, but is looking more like a Dem pickup.

Chambliss did end up under 50% in Georgia, so there will be a run-off election there. Run-off elections generally have much lower turnouts, so a motivated base and good GOTV are generally as important as general election results. There are reportedly a lot of Dems on the way to Georgia to help win this one.

Coleman's final lead over Franken in Minnesota is 477 votes, or less than 0.2% of the total cast. This is going into recount and speaking from being in Washington state during the 2004 gubernatorial race, Coleman is a clear favorite but Franken can't be counted out.

Posted by: tanstaafl on November 5, 2008 at 7:45 PM | PERMALINK

Please please please dump Harry Reid & choose a real, progressive Democrat for Majority Leader. He & Pelosi are Republican-lite. Their constant rolling over for Bush & her taking impeachment off the table makes me believe they are Republicans in Democratic clothing. I loathe these people. They represent the pre-Obama spineless Democratic Party & need to be shown the door.

Posted by: David H. on November 6, 2008 at 5:21 AM | PERMALINK




 

 

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